Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[The Only Real Estel]

I am, like SpM, trying to review the thread right now but I do have a few things to say in response to some of the things that have been voiced lately.

Originally posted by Fordim"

At the risk of hubris I rather suspect that I might have been the beneficiary of our brave guardian's aid that night. Firefoot voted against me the first DAY, but then began to support me. And if my theory is right about the quiet wolves, I (or someone like me: perhaps TORE) would have been the obvious choice for the wolves to kill. It would have got the loudmouths all pointing fingers at one another

Although I believe I did include the phrase 'if I am not killed during the night' in two of my earlier posts, I stopped that because I began to realize a simple fact - it would take an incredibly stupid werewolf to waste a kill on me during the night. In fact, I don't think that any werewolf would waste a kill on any of the 'loudmouths,' we have all been hanging some suspicions out there about eachother, & if you draw on common sense it would be wise for the wolves to leave those innocents that are suspicous of eachother alive so that they have targets during the DAY. Also, I think the 'loudmouths' are pointing enough fingers at one another as it is, perhaps for good reason, perhaps not.

Originally posted by Morm:

2. The Only Real Estel
Again that's not to say that 1 to 3 are set and that's who I'm voting for they could definately change come voting time

I hope so. If you've heard any especially compelling evidence against me, then please, spell it out for me & I'll give you my reasonings behind what is in question. It's so much easier to give a good defense when you know you're defending good intentions & not having to stretch to cover your tracks.

Originally posted by Kuru (questioning Fordim about his defenses of SpM):

You seem convinced of his innocence. Why? His opinions are only of value if he is innocent and even if he is innocent he has been grievously wrong a number of times. Why are you so unwilling to consider the possibility of his guilt? You voted against him on the first day and have done everything possible to avoid it ever since. Estel’s theory becomes more appealing

I would like to hear some good reasons behind your support of SpM, Fordim. And it is actually SoN's theory (someone that we know was innocent, for what that's worth), I just added a few things that I thought spoke to his theory.

Originally posted by Kuru:

I've not changed my argument since DAY TWO, even at considerable risk to myself (risk that I welcomed because it would test what I said).

As I noted above, I think my consistency in arguing this says that my theory should be put to the test.

He does have a good point here. I am not going to condemn Saucey solely because he has voted for three innocents, but it does bear watching. And I think perhaps Kuru has earned the right to have his theory tried out. Besides, I am not nearly convinced of SpM's innocence, and his defense of his vote of the innocent phantom doesn't speak a lot to me. Any wolf (we're speaking hypothetically here) in question could wait until the vote was a tie or close to a tie & then vote for the innocent he was being tried against & say he did it in the interest of saving himself/preventing a double hanging. That does not necessarily make him innocent.

Originally posted by Estel:

It seems like SpM continued to suspect Fordim for sticking to his plan earlier, but then later decided Fordim was innocent for...uh, sticking to his plan.

Originally posted by SpM:

I see your point Estel. It occurred to me at the time. But those two statements were made at different times, with things being said and done in between.

And, although that sounds like I am being defensive (which I counselled against), there is a more general point to be made. We should not just be looking at specific statements and trying to find contradictions. Not at this stage. Eveyone here has, I think, changed their mind at some point or another (even Kuru, early on ). Our views have to change to respond to changing circumstances. I am not saying that specific statements are not important, but we should now be using them to form broader theories based on patterns of behaviour.

Of course changing your mind & theories is a part of the game. But it just didn't seem like there was all that much explanation for it, not to me at least. And I also hear you about specific statements, that is why I am trying to chew on SoN's broader theory of you & Fordim - with the help of some specific statements.

[Kuruharan]

I think what I want to say about Fordim’s theory is “What is the nature of the evidence?”

For this we have…

A) Holbytlass and Oddwen have only voted the same way once.
B) That Oddwen voted against Holbytlass.
C) That Fordim was to be the fall guy of the first NIGHT’s slaying.
-taken from post #273

D) That Holbytlass and Oddwen have usually voted for people who are still alive.
-taken from post #282

E) We have a better chance of getting a wolf by following Fordim’s plan if we accept his numbers.
-taken from post #289

Now I already questioned (D) by pointing out that there is no way the werewolves could guarantee that they’d always be voting for people who would survive even if they were splitting their votes. There is no particular reason to suspect Oddwen and Holbytlass on this count any more than anyone else.

A) is a tenuous point. Of course, it is not intended to be more than one point in the pattern, but I’ll say now this is hardly compelling.

B) is an argument that could as easily be used against Fordim as it relates to Saucepan Man since Fordim voted against Saucepan Man on DAY ONE.

C) this is probably not in dispute (unless one thinks we were meant to outthink ourselves), but this could mean any number of things.

E) seems to me as if Fordim is trying to play a numbers game based on nothing more than hope and gut instinct.

I’m not saying any of this to deny that there might be merit in what Fordim says. I am saying this to show that perhaps this is not the best theory that we want to act on at this critical juncture.

Now,

Here is a post that stretched to four pages in Word of evidence against The Saucepan Man. (Yes, I was tempted to repost the whole thing to make sure the villagers in question who need to read it would, but I decided to have confidence in them that they would click the link and reread it for themselves). This is not gut-instinct and numbers games. These are the actual things that The Saucepan Man has said and done and I believe they all corroborate my assertion against him. And anyone who thinks that I took him out of context, I encourage you to read the original posts themselves and see. If you think I took him out of context at some point, ask me about it and I'll try to explain (again) what I think it shows. I've got nothing to hide here.

And notice, he still has not really confessed to his role in Evisse's death. He certainly stopped berating me for it, but he never explained why he mentioned her name three (that's three) times before I ever mentioned her and then afterwards screeched to the heavens (and anybody else listening) that I was the one responsible for dragging him (kicking and screaming) into voting for Evisse. After I call him on it he tries to bury the matter.

There is another point to be considered here too. The very fact that I am still alive and have not been eaten in the middle of the night argue in my favor. If the Saucepan Man was innocent, the first thing the werewolves would want to do would be to kill me to show that I was innocent hoping that this would drive everyone into hanging Saucepan since I'd have suddenly become something of a martyr. This hasn't happened. I submit that the reason for my still being alive is that my death would be a disaster for the werewolves because it would show that I've been telling the truth. Notice how The Saucepan Man has completely cooled on having me lynched. He's afraid of what would come out if I were.

Now, he's going to come galloping out of the tall grass (again) and say that the reason why we are both still alive is that I'm the werewolf and I'm hoping to hang him. This would be very unwise on my part because if I were a werewolf and Saucepan were innocent, suspicion would instantly turn against me and I'd be hopelessly exposed. I can also say that being inflexible is no way to be a werewolf. "Inflexible" is probably one of the kinder words that Fordim and Saucepan could throw at me (and probably would like to). Saucepan, on the other hand, has been as flexible and dodgy as one could possibly please.

[mormegil]

Kuru, I have a specefic question for you. It's obvious that SpM is your prime suspect and that you are certain in your knowledge. I would like to know who would be the other two. I ask this to see if it makes sense to something that I have working in my mind right now. I have a theory going right now and if I assume SpM to be guilty it leads me to some conclusions. I would like to know who you have so I can check it out with my theory.

[Kuruharan]

Before I answer mormegil's question, there is one other thing I'd like to say.

Is The Saucepan Man's behavior really in line with what one would expect if one were falsely accused? Take a look at the phantom and me for instance. The phantom made a riotous clamor when he was falsely accused and ultimately so did I. While the phantom did not encourage his lynching, I have repeatedly encouraged mine because I have a point to prove. I must also note in fairness that Evisse did not go down too tamely either. This seems to me to be the natural reaction to someone falsely accused. A villager falsely accused is naturally going to think that the person accusing them is a werewolf, and try to expose them as such. The Saucepan Man, on the other hand, has been delicately tiptoeing around the possibility of his innocence. He first started accusing me and when I started turning on him he danced about with me a bit and then tried to change the subject and eventually convinced sufficient people to hang Son of Numenor. He's not been particularly vocal against me ever since, even though if anything I've gotten louder against him. If he were innocent he should be eager to either be hung himself or to get me hanged and clear his name and hopefully uncover a werewolf.

Now,

I would like to know who would be the other two

That is a slightly more difficult question. I freely admit that I was genuinely highly suspicious of Firefoot because Saucepan seemed to be bouncing off of her to some extent and she voted against the phantom for little good reason that I could see. However, obviously this morning changed my thinking. Ever since then I've become ever more suspicious of Fordim. I started off being highly suspicious of him. Then I became pretty convinced that he was innocent. Now I'm back to suspecting him again. (How's that for being open-minded?) Estel's theory has been working on my brain. I also note that this numbers game Fordim wants to try seems to be providing more justification for him to hang more innocents. See how well it works for the werewolves. Hang somebody off that list of four he provided, which he would probably kindly narrow to two. When that person proves to be innocent he can say, "Oops, I'm terribly sorry. However, it was a 50/50 chance. Now we know for certain that the werewolf must be ------." Then -------, who is innocent, is then hung because Fordim is very smart and the ever so innocent Saucepan Man supports this. Viola! Werewolves Victorious yet again.

Then there is his reluctance to go against Saucepan, but that probably is self-evident.

However, I'm not really certain about all of this. Not like I am of Saucepan. But it is possible and I've been getting ever more suspicious.

For the third, I'm not sure at all. I'm more concerned about finally getting a decisive choice in this Saucepan issue. I'm kind of figuring that I'll worry about the third when the time comes if I'm still around. Certainly, if Saucepan proves to be a werewolf that will probably aid in the choice considerably (as well as providing the villagers with a few more "outs").

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

I would like to hear some good reasons behind your support of SpM, Fordim.

“Support” is not the word I would use; I think that we are merely heading in parallel directions. Why this might be I don’t know. If you are asking me for proof of Saucy’s innocence I have none: that would be impossible (while he’s still alive that is).

By way of answer then…there are three possibilities:

1) Sauce is a stupid wolf. This would explain why he is constantly doing things to bring down suspicion on himself and why he narrowly escaped lynching yesterday. The problem I have with this theory is that Sauce is not stupid. I can’t be any more persuasive than that: he just ain’t.

2) Sauce is a smart wolf. For his behaviour to be that of a smart wolf, it would have to be of benefit to the other wolves. If the other wolves are part of the loudmouths, then his behaviour is not helpful to them, as he is constantly drawing attention to the loudmouthed camp (by responding to Kuru’s clear obsession with lynching him, for example) which would render him a stupid wolf, which I don’t find likely (see above). If he is a smart wolf, then, he would have to be the only loudmouthed wolf, providing cover for the quiet wolves, distracting our attention and willingly putting himself in harm’s way to give them cover.

3) Sauce is innocent.

Because I don’t find possibility number one probable, I won’t vote for him on that basis.

Because I won’t vote for an innocent, I won’t vote for him on the basis of possibility number three.

Because possibility number two involves Sauce as the lone loudmouthed wolf, with the other two hiding amongst the quiet wolves, I would rather go after the quiet wolves where I have a greater chance of nabbing a fuzzy beast than by flailing around madly amongst the loudmouthed wolves. This may look paradoxical insofar as I am saying I’d rather take my pick of 2 amongst 4 than 1 amongst 1 (that is, my choice is between, on the one hand, two of Oddwen, Azaeilia, Holbytlass and Shelob and, on the other, only one of Saucy). But the above possibilities do not hold to Saucy alone, but to all the loudmouths. So my choice is not 1 amongst 1 but 1 amongst 4 (Kuru, TORE, Sauce, morm: and yes I know I’m not in that list because I’m obviously not going to vote for myself…!!).

So you see, I have no great faith in Sauce’s innocence; nor do I have any great faith in the innocence of any of the loudmouths (except myself): but I do know that there is at most one smart wolf in that group of four and at least two very smart wolves in the other, quieter group of four – and, yes, I still believe that it is entirely possible that all three of the monsters are of the quiet variety.

At any event, this will be my last chance to post until tomorrow morning, when I will only be able to get on again briefly at around 8 EDT before I shall be tied up again for the rest of the day, so it looks like I shall have to review all new posts at that time and then cast what will likely be among the first votes. All I can say is that I have yet to see any of the quiet villagers do or say anything to dispel my suspicions about them. To the loudmouthed villagers I will say this:

We’ve been carrying on this way for the length of the game and have yet to bag a wolf. Either we are looking in the wrong place, or we are looking in the wrong way. In either case, I would suggest that the time has come to shift our focus elsewhere. No matter where the wolves may be, keeping on as we have been is clearly only to their benefit.

[Kuruharan]

If you are asking me for proof of Saucy’s innocence I have none: that would be impossible (while he’s still alive that is).

Then let's find out! That is the whole point!

Either we are looking in the wrong place, or we are looking in the wrong way.

...or we are flatly refusing to finish our lines of enquiry! What is so wrong about testing my theory? Even if you think there might be only one loud wolf, don't you think it might be worthwhile to try this line of reasoning rather than wimping out and going someplace else and avoiding (if you are innocent) what you may perceive as a hard choice? Is is not as if you won't have another chance to test your theory even if I am wrong.

I hope the above post shows why I am growing increasingly suspicious of Fordim. He seems more intent on playing his numbers game than actually looking at the evidence and making a choice. That way he can appear to be innocent and say it was "just the odds."

However, I am in no way encouraging that Fordim be lynched tonight. My target is Saucepan Man. I felt the need to point out the problems in Fordim's reasoning.

[The Saucepan Man]

Well, I have reviewed the entire thread and shall share my conclusions.

I am not going to bother responding to Kuruharan's "evidence" against me at length. I have little time, and more important things to say. My posts are there for all to see and I am happy to stand by them. Before moving on, though, I should point out that I have never sought to deny my role in the deaths of Evisse and SoN. In fact, I think that I have been fairly forthright about this. It is the only real evidence against me. The rest is pure speculation or, at worst (for me), statements that can be taken one way or the other. And, if we are to condemn people for having wrongly accused or voted against innocents, then we should look at everyone who has strongly accused or voted against not only Evisse and SoN, but also the phantom and Firefoot. Which is just about the entire village.

Now to more important matters.

First off, I remain pretty sure that Fordim is innocent. I did begin to doubt him again overnight, given that he outlined the "shortlist" of the phantom, The Only Real Estel and me fairly early on yesterday. But, as I have said, he did it too obviously for me to really set much store by that. There are others that did it far more subtly. Also, Firefoot effectively defended three people on a number of occasions yesterday by indicating that she found them less suspicious of others. They were Fordim, The Only Real Estel and me. I believe that Fordim was the beneficiary of Firefoot's Guardinaship on NIGHT 2 because (1) she already suspected him as being innocent, (2) he would have been an obvious choice for a Werewolf assault, and (3) because, on DAY 3, she not only defended him but echoed his reasoning in her own posts. I think that she felt that she could probably trust him.

But who is guilty?

I was fully prepared to find some evidence to dispel my suspicions over Kuruharan. I have found none. And now his determination not to consider any possibility other than that he is right and his insistence, verging on the evangelical, that I am a Werewolf and should be lynched (even though I have, as he says, gone easy on him in recent times) confirms my suspicions. I am convinced that Kuruharan is a Werewolf.

I don't think that anyone has cast doubts in mormegil's direction yet, not serious ones anyway. Well, I am about to.

But I am getting ahead of myself. Here's what I believe has happened so far.

On DAY 1, mormegil mentioned fairly early on that he suspected SoN and the phantom (both known innocents). He settled on the phantom, and pretty much argued for the phantom to be lynched from then on up to the end of DAY 3. Kuru, meanwhile, stayed fairly quiet for the first half of the day, posting every so often, but remaining non-committal and saying little of help to the village. I think that the Werewolves had identified their first victims as the phantom, Fordim and me, and perhaps Kuru was planning on gunning for Fordim or me on DAY 1. But when the opportunity presented itself to have Evisse lynched (as a result of Shelob's vote and my speculation), he took it. He was the first to point out the "hedging" elements in her posts and made out that these seemed to implicate her. In fact, I think that (knowing her to be innocent, which I did not), he cottoned on to the fact that she might be the Seer. After all, he's not stupid, our Kuru. They could not be sure, though, so mormegil voted for the phantom, and was probably quite please to see that both Fordim and I had attracted a vote each too by that stage. Kuruharan's vote for Evisse gave her 3 votes to tie with the phantom at that stage and, with Fordim and I there too, the Werewolves must have been fairly happy at that point. The voting then went against Evisse, and she was the one lynched.

DAY 2 opened with mormegil bringing up the fact that TGWBS's death overnight implicated Fordim. He tried to make out that this was not the way that it should necessarily be seen, but he put the idea in everyone's heads. Shortly afterwards, Kuru seized on what he thought were inopportune words by Fordim in order to try and implicate him. But the two of them spent most of the day between them trying to implicate the phantom and I. Mormegil carried on with his accusations against the phantom, while it did not take long for Kuru to start stirring up suspicion against me.

One thing that I noticed at the time about Kuru on Day 2 was how very defensive he was. Reading through the day's proceedings again, it is incredible just how defensive he is, notwithstanding that there were only two people who made any kind of serious accusations against him that day. Almost from the outset, his posts had a defensive tone, probably because he realised that people might seek to make something of his role in Evisse's death. He stepped up a gear when I cast suspicion on him, and again when Firefoot indicated her doubts about him. As both Oddwen and I pointed out, it was strange for him to behave like this when it was only Firefoot and I accusing him. I think that this is one of the few mistakes that he has made, but he got away with it.

I should note that, on DAY 2, mormegil and Kuru mildly pointed the finger at each other, but only mometarily and they have not otherwise come close to making any serious accusations against each other.

By the end of DAY 2, with SoN lynched, the phantom and I (the Werewolves' two chosen targets for DAY 2) both look likely suspects. The phantom because of the nature of his posts and me because I led the voting against SoN. It seemed to them that they had an opportunity to try to limit the voting to two or three innocent Villagers, thus guaranteeing that at least one innocent would be lynched (and possibly two) and that the Werewolves would be safe. As I have already indicated in my first post today, they succeeded in doing so. They decided, I believe, that one of them would go against me (the more likely suspect), while the other two would go against the phantom. They also concluded that the phantom and I would try to implicate each other. The phantom fell for that. I did not (although I had no option but to vote for him in the end).

So, on DAY 3, in his first post, mormegil put the phantom, Fordim, Firefoot and I firmly on the "shortlist", on the basis of our votes for SoN. Two on that list are known innocents, and I know one and believe the other to be innocent. Since the phantom and I were the most suspicious at that stage, they figured that we would become the centre of attention, and both of them spent the rest of the day encouraging the other Villagers to vote against one or other of us. Mormegil stubbornly ploughed his phantom furrow, while Kuruharan took great glee in making long posts against me setting out his "evidence" (see above). At one point, mormegil pretended to waver between voting against me or the phantom, perhaps further seeking to implant in people's minds that there was really no other choice. But he voted against the phantom - in a good piece of timing I might add, since it tied the phantom and I on two votes. Perhaps they would get their double lynching after all. Although I suspect that mormegil was probably right when he said that he had calculated that I would probably survive and they figured that this would be the better result for the Wolves, since Kuru would have been heavily implicated if I had been lynched, whereas morm had attracted very little attention up to then.

A few more things to be said about DAY 3. Kuruharan implicated Firefoot and Shelob as my "cronies". Well, we know that Firefoot was innocent and, on this basis, I believe that Shelob may well be too.

Also, in a modestly phrased, but actually quite arrogant, post (#188, mormegil stated:

Originally Posted by mormegil

I honestly feel that I was saved by the guardian last night. I say this because who else has been as vocal as I against those who are most suspicious.

The Werewolves knew that Firefoot had been successful on NIGHT 3 and that, if Firefoot was killed on NIGHT 4, we would be looking to establish who it was that she had protected. I think that mormegil was subtly trying to earn himself a little capital (as Kuru calls it) here.

Of course, one person is missing from the above summary of events. And that is our third Werewolf. This is almost certainly one of the "quiet" members of the Village. Personally, I suspect Holbytlass because she referred to the 2 Villager shortlist fairly early on on DAY 3 and questioned whether there were any other suspects. I am, as noted above, least suspicious of Evisse out of the "quiet" bunch. I remain, however, uncertain about the identity of the third Werewolf.

So there we are. That is what I believe has happened. It's the result of looking at the entire pattern of events over the last few days - how things have developed, rather than just specific comments and votes that led to a lynching. And my conclusion is that we should vote for Kuruharan today (as I am more certain of him than I am of mormegil).

And finally, Kuru actually got it right first time round about us possibly having only one day left. When he said this, I thought about it and worked out that, if we hang an innocent today and the Werewolves find the Cursed Villager tonight, the game's up. Similarly, if we hang an innocent, the Werewolves find the Hunter tonight and the Hunter unwittingly kills an innocent. It seems to me that this is more likely to occur to a Werewolf (because it plays a part in their planning), so perhaps Kuru realised that it might be incriminatory shortly after saying it and then tried to pass it off as an "innocent" mistake.

I shall have time to review comments tomorrow, but I shall be at work, so I can't post too much. But, unless I see compelling evidence as to why I should vote for soemone else, I shall be voting for Kuruharan.

(Apologies for the length )

[The Only Real Estel]

Just posting quickly to say that I am still about and have read the latest replies, but I cannot reply now. However, I will no doubt be kept awake until late tonight thinking about this nasty business, 'facts', & what it all means...I hope to post at least once early morning before posting a vote (which I think has to be in by 9:30 am or so central time).

[Kuruharan]

I am not going to bother responding to Kuruharan's "evidence" against me at length.

Because you can't.

I should point out that I have never sought to deny my role in the deaths of Evisse and SoN.

Three times you mentioned her name before I took your bait. You still have yet to explain that. Then comes the part about how you attempted to play up my role in it. Then comes the part about how you attempted to dodge the issue (and still are doing so by attempting to dismiss it by saying "I've talked about that" when you haven't). Then comes the part about how completely going to ground when the spotlight inevitably shines too brightly on you hoping that some other victim would turn up...

So there we are. That is what I believe has happened. It's the result of looking at the entire pattern of events over the last few days - how things have developed, rather than just specific comments and votes that led to a lynching. And my conclusion is that we should vote for Kuruharan today

-and-

I shall be voting for Kuruharan.

Good.

We are finally getting down to business.

Perhaps your buddies have given you up for lost after today. Although on the other hand it is probably pretty likely you'd be able to wriggle out of the unpleasantness that would ensue. No doubt you'll pull out the whole "poor pathetic Saucepan" routine again.

Even so, far be it from me to say anything to get myself out of the noose. I'll take it. It might be the village's last chance to see sense before it is too late.

The rest of your post, even the parts that argue against me, does not particularly concern me one way or the other. Obviously mormegil will have to speak up in his own defense if he chooses. But there is one thing.

And finally, Kuru actually got it right first time round about us possibly having only one day left. When he said this, I thought about it and worked out that, if we hang an innocent today and the Werewolves find the Cursed Villager tonight, the game's up. Similarly, if we hang an innocent, the Werewolves find the Hunter tonight and the Hunter unwittingly kills an innocent. It seems to me that this is more likely to occur to a Werewolf (because it plays a part in their planning), so perhaps Kuru realised that it might be incriminatory shortly after saying it and then tried to pass it off as an "innocent" mistake.

I certainly encourage everyone to vote against me if they think this tends to prove my guilt. However, I would ask them to bear in mind that this may be an expression of Saucepan's own hopes that he is attempting to put on me.

++ THE SAUCEPAN MAN

Estel:

Just posting quickly to say that I am still about and have read the latest replies

If only we could hear from some of the other villagers. Most of them seem to have vanished completely.