[The Saucepan Man]

Thoughts duly gathered. Here they are, in case anyone finds them useful:

Folwren:
Unduly anxious about looking suspicious for having voted for Alcarillo, when she had not really been accused. Overly defensive?
Didn’t vote on Day 1 (which I still regard as supicious).
Voted for Alcarillo on Day 2 to put him ahead of Azaelia. But is now strongly accusing Azaelia.

Shelob:
Voted for the phantom on Day 1. But there was no particular reason to think him innocent then.
Her vote for Meneltarmacil on Day 2 could have been part of an effort by the Wolves to spread their votes around.
Has appeared to be helpful and contributing without really putting forward any strong views on whom she suspects.

Holbytlass:
Seems “too innocent”, if you know what I mean. Looks like she’s trying to appear innocent and helpful, but without giving too much away.
A possible pairing with Kath, given the timing of her vote for Bergil on Day 1.
Her rather baseless supicion of (and vote for) wilwarin on Day 2 is supicious, but she has since changed her position on wilwarin.
On Day 2, she could have been trying to “hide” by voting for someone unlikely to be lynched.
To my mind, Holby plays her cards very close to her chest. She only identifies one main suspect each day and sticks to that. But that could be seen as a good thing.

Meneltarmacil:
Despite my vote for him yester-Day, I really don’t think him to be a Wolf. His vote for Azaelia on Day 2 rather than Alcarillo persuades me otherwise.
Almost certainly not a Wolf if Azaelia is.

WaynetheGoblin
Difficult to say as he doesn’t really say much.
The only thing which I find at all suspicious is his failure to vote on Day 2.
I’ll keep him in the “don’t know” category.

Wilwarin538:
I am not so sure that her vote “to save two innocents” on Day 1 clears her, as she voted for another innocent, namely Bergil.
Her vote for Azaelia on Day 2 clears her if Azaelia is a Wolf.
Not much else to go on, but I tend to think her innocent.

Durelin:
Despite her accusation of me, it appears that she is trying to be helpful.
But her votes for unlikely lynching candidates (me on Day 1 and Folwren on Day 2) could be attempts to avoid suspicion.
Another don’t know, although I have my eye on her as a possible Bear since she has been successfully doing very little to garner suspicion.

The Saucepan Man:
I am innocent and I believe that the phantom’s comments speak in my favour.
I am glad that some of you here at least are prepared to give me the benefit of the doubt for the time being.

Kath:
Difficult one this. I did suspect her originally for her lack of analysis but she has been much more forthcoming recently.
She has stuck doggedly to her conviction of Menel’s guilt and has named very few other suspects, similar to Holby.
As noted above, she could be a pairing with Holby, given that Holby’s vote for Bergil on Day 1 took some of the pressure of her.
I just have a bad feeling about Kath, although it may be nothing.

Azaelia of Willowbottom:
Her last minute vote for Bergil was very strange. She claims to have panicked. If she is telling the truth, it seems to me much more likely that a Wolf would have panicked than an innocent because Wolves have more reason to consider the implications of their vote. An ordinary villager, if unsure of whom to vote for, would have just voted for someone who was unlikely to be lynched. If she is not telling the truth then she is not to be trusted.
She was the first to suggest that Alcarillo was responsible for TGWBS’s death (executing a frame-up plan?) and led the calls for Alcarillo’s lynching.
She hardly ever accuses anyone except the person she votes for.
She has voted for two known innocents.
She seems to have been the phantom’s only real suspect. Was he getting too close for comfort?

Cailín:
Another “don’t know”.
Her vote for Alcarillo is not overly suspicious as she was only the second person to vote for him.
She seems to be trying to help the village’s cause, and I have no particular reason to suspect her.
Which of course makes me slightly suspicious.

Nilpaurion Felagund
I think it’s pretty clear now that he is the second shirriff.

Gil-Galad:
He has said very little of consequence, although I’m sure that he knows that this is bound to attract suspicion.
He seemed very proud of himself for voting for Kitanna, and eager to make sure everyone knew about it. He had no reason to know, when he voted, that she was the Cobbler, so perhaps he was using this to try to establish a false innocence.
Definitely suspicious.

Glirdan:
Flip-flopper and seemingly over-eager to please. I originally put this down to naïve excitement, but now I’m not so sure.
He has voted for two known innocents, and with quite suspicious timing too.
Could be paired with Kath for the timing of his vote for Bergil on Day 1, or with either Azaelia or Menel (but not both) for the timing of his vote for Alcarillo on Day 2.
Over the top grieving for our fallen villagers, but this could just be “in character” interplay.

So, in summary:

Top suspects: Azaelia and Glirdan. Azaelia edges it on the evidence and because I still have this nagging feeling that Glirdan is simply guileless.
Secondary suspects: Holbytlass, Folwren, Kath, Gil-Galad and Shelob.
Don’t knows: Cailín, Durelin and WaynetheGoblin.
Probably not Wolves: Meneltarmacil and wilwarin.
Definitely innocent: Nilpaurion and The Saucepan Man.