[Aiwendil]

Well, I see no harm in doing my part in Mormegil's analysis plan, at least. I'm not going to analyze every post by Boromir, but I will look at every one that seems to say something important.

DAY 1, post 7: Typical early DAY 1 post. Throws out Lhunardawen's name. Not much to go on here.

DAY 1, post 11: Lists his suspects as Gurthang, Rune, and Aiwendil, citing his belief that a Wolf is among those that have spoken up to that point.

DAY 1, post 48: Throws some suspicion at Holbytlass for her (facetious, I think) first DAY list. Names his top suspects as Holbytlass and Gurthang.

DAY 1, post 53: After leading us through his process of elimination, he arrives at Spawn and Lhunardawen as his chief suspects. His main reason appears to be that they voted early.

DAY 1, posts 64, 66: Names Spawn as his chief suspect. After ensuring that I'm around to prevent a double-lynch, cross-posts his vote for Spawn with mine.

DAY 1 analysis: His suspicions changed substantially over the course of the day before he finally homed in on Spawn. This is understandable for an innocent on DAY 1. If he is a Wolf, he may have decided to sacrifice Spawn near the end of the DAY. Or he may have believed that I would vote for her in any case (even if it caused a double lynch) - or that SPM would vote for her - and therefore, thinking her death was inevitable, he voted for her. Or perhaps Formendacil is a Wolf as well, and seeing that it was inevitable that one of the two would be lynched that day, he voted for Spawn.

DAY 2, post 84: Names Fordim and Aiwendil as most likely innocent and Rune, Holbytlass, and Wilwarin as his top suspects.

DAY 2, post 101: Defends himself against the charge (made by SPM) that he may have "turned on Spawn at the end". He claims that he suspected Spawn through most of the DAY. A simple review of his posts indicates that this is not true - only in post 53 did he first mention Spawn. Goes on to suggest that we should look at obvious candidates and not come up with "crazy theories". Lists Formendacil, Fordim, The Saucepan Man, and Aiwendil as likely innocent. Does not suspect Wilwarin because her vote was too obvious for a Wolf. His top suspect is Rune.

DAY 2, post 129: Repeats some of his earlier comments on Rune and Wilwarin. Complains about Gurthang and Wayne. Says he will most likely vote for Rune.

DAY 2, post 128: Repeats some earlier suspicions and votes for Rune.

DAY 2 analysis: He was consistent in pushing for Rune throughout the DAY; he vacillated concerning Holbytlass, Wilwarin, Gurthang, and Wayne. All of these except Holbytlass are now known innocents - though of course all were widely suspected on DAY 2. If he's innocent, he was (like many of us) misled by their behaviour. If he's guilty, he was riding the currents of suspicion on DAY 2 and helping to push for the lynching of an innocent.

DAY 3, post 161: Baffled by the death of Wilwarin. Thinks Aiwendil and Fordim innocent. Is less sure, but still not suspicious, of Formendacil and Gurthang. Kath, Lhuna, and Wayne are his top suspects.

DAY 3, post 172: Cautiously voices suspicion of Mormegil and The Saucepan Man. Reiterates suspicion of Lhuna and Wayne.

DAY 3, post 200: Votes for The Saucepan Man, creating a tie between SPM and Aiwendil. This, in effect, forces the two of us to choose from among those that have received one vote: Mormegil, Wayne, and Boromir.

DAY 3, post 207: Claims to be showing us his reasoning in voting for The Saucepan Man. That reasoning is not at all clear to me from this post.

DAY 3 analysis: Again, his suspicions change over the course of the DAY. Though he voices some suspicion of The Saucepan Man prior to voting for him, his eventual vote comes as something of a surprise. It may be that he's innocent, he suspected The Saucepan Man, and that he hoped either Kath or I would add to his vote. Indeed, he may have guessed that I would be forced to vote for The Saucepan Man to save myself. As it proved, that was not the case. If he is a Wolf - well, I'm not sure how to read his vote. It's possible that he is a Wolf and he was trying to protect Kath or Lhuna - for both The Saucepan Man and I had said we would likely vote for one of those two.

DAY 4, post 220: Claims that after voting for The Saucepan Man, he decided that to take SPM at his word and consider him innocent. His chief suspects are Kath, Holbytlass, and Lhunardawen - but above all, Kath. He thinks Formendacil may be the Cobbler.

DAY 4, post 223: Now thinks Holbytlass likely to be innocent because she expressed doubts about the Gifteds revealing themselves. He thinks that it should be up to the Gifteds, but he advises only the Hunter to reveal.

DAY 4, post 234: Thinks that Fordim may be the Cobbler, due to his unexpected vote for me.

DAY 4, post 238: Points out (rightly, I think) the ways in which Kath's votes have been safe.

DAY 4 analysis (so far): He has been consistent in his suspicion of Kath and Lhuna. This seems very reasonable to me. If he's a wolf, then he's again going with the flow.