Tol-in-Gaurhoth XIV: Nyárë Nauroron Númenoreva

[Aiwendil]

Well, I see no harm in doing my part in Mormegil's analysis plan, at least. I'm not going to analyze every post by Boromir, but I will look at every one that seems to say something important.

DAY 1, post 7: Typical early DAY 1 post. Throws out Lhunardawen's name. Not much to go on here.

DAY 1, post 11: Lists his suspects as Gurthang, Rune, and Aiwendil, citing his belief that a Wolf is among those that have spoken up to that point.

DAY 1, post 48: Throws some suspicion at Holbytlass for her (facetious, I think) first DAY list. Names his top suspects as Holbytlass and Gurthang.

DAY 1, post 53: After leading us through his process of elimination, he arrives at Spawn and Lhunardawen as his chief suspects. His main reason appears to be that they voted early.

DAY 1, posts 64, 66: Names Spawn as his chief suspect. After ensuring that I'm around to prevent a double-lynch, cross-posts his vote for Spawn with mine.

DAY 1 analysis: His suspicions changed substantially over the course of the day before he finally homed in on Spawn. This is understandable for an innocent on DAY 1. If he is a Wolf, he may have decided to sacrifice Spawn near the end of the DAY. Or he may have believed that I would vote for her in any case (even if it caused a double lynch) - or that SPM would vote for her - and therefore, thinking her death was inevitable, he voted for her. Or perhaps Formendacil is a Wolf as well, and seeing that it was inevitable that one of the two would be lynched that day, he voted for Spawn.

DAY 2, post 84: Names Fordim and Aiwendil as most likely innocent and Rune, Holbytlass, and Wilwarin as his top suspects.

DAY 2, post 101: Defends himself against the charge (made by SPM) that he may have "turned on Spawn at the end". He claims that he suspected Spawn through most of the DAY. A simple review of his posts indicates that this is not true - only in post 53 did he first mention Spawn. Goes on to suggest that we should look at obvious candidates and not come up with "crazy theories". Lists Formendacil, Fordim, The Saucepan Man, and Aiwendil as likely innocent. Does not suspect Wilwarin because her vote was too obvious for a Wolf. His top suspect is Rune.

DAY 2, post 129: Repeats some of his earlier comments on Rune and Wilwarin. Complains about Gurthang and Wayne. Says he will most likely vote for Rune.

DAY 2, post 128: Repeats some earlier suspicions and votes for Rune.

DAY 2 analysis: He was consistent in pushing for Rune throughout the DAY; he vacillated concerning Holbytlass, Wilwarin, Gurthang, and Wayne. All of these except Holbytlass are now known innocents - though of course all were widely suspected on DAY 2. If he's innocent, he was (like many of us) misled by their behaviour. If he's guilty, he was riding the currents of suspicion on DAY 2 and helping to push for the lynching of an innocent.

DAY 3, post 161: Baffled by the death of Wilwarin. Thinks Aiwendil and Fordim innocent. Is less sure, but still not suspicious, of Formendacil and Gurthang. Kath, Lhuna, and Wayne are his top suspects.

DAY 3, post 172: Cautiously voices suspicion of Mormegil and The Saucepan Man. Reiterates suspicion of Lhuna and Wayne.

DAY 3, post 200: Votes for The Saucepan Man, creating a tie between SPM and Aiwendil. This, in effect, forces the two of us to choose from among those that have received one vote: Mormegil, Wayne, and Boromir.

DAY 3, post 207: Claims to be showing us his reasoning in voting for The Saucepan Man. That reasoning is not at all clear to me from this post.

DAY 3 analysis: Again, his suspicions change over the course of the DAY. Though he voices some suspicion of The Saucepan Man prior to voting for him, his eventual vote comes as something of a surprise. It may be that he's innocent, he suspected The Saucepan Man, and that he hoped either Kath or I would add to his vote. Indeed, he may have guessed that I would be forced to vote for The Saucepan Man to save myself. As it proved, that was not the case. If he is a Wolf - well, I'm not sure how to read his vote. It's possible that he is a Wolf and he was trying to protect Kath or Lhuna - for both The Saucepan Man and I had said we would likely vote for one of those two.

DAY 4, post 220: Claims that after voting for The Saucepan Man, he decided that to take SPM at his word and consider him innocent. His chief suspects are Kath, Holbytlass, and Lhunardawen - but above all, Kath. He thinks Formendacil may be the Cobbler.

DAY 4, post 223: Now thinks Holbytlass likely to be innocent because she expressed doubts about the Gifteds revealing themselves. He thinks that it should be up to the Gifteds, but he advises only the Hunter to reveal.

DAY 4, post 234: Thinks that Fordim may be the Cobbler, due to his unexpected vote for me.

DAY 4, post 238: Points out (rightly, I think) the ways in which Kath's votes have been safe.

DAY 4 analysis (so far): He has been consistent in his suspicion of Kath and Lhuna. This seems very reasonable to me. If he's a wolf, then he's again going with the flow.

[Boromir88]

DAY 2, post 101: Defends himself against the charge (made by SPM) that he may have "turned on Spawn at the end". He claims that he suspected Spawn through most of the DAY. A simple review of his posts indicates that this is not true - only in post 53 did he first mention Spawn.~Aiwendil

I will say a well done analysis, 'owever this speculation 'ere wuld be wrong, cus I nevuh sed I surspected Spawn fur mos' of the previous day. I told my reasonin', in that if 7 peeple 'ad been voted fur so far, so logically one wus a wulf. I dun wanna add anuthuh name to the lis', so I went through the peeple who 'ad votes and picked Spawn. As I sed above Formendacil an' (I thin' Wayne), she seemed mos' likely to be a wulf. I admit I wus rathuh lucky in my choice. But, as far as who all 'ad votes, I though' she wus mos' likely to be a wulf.

I dun surspect Spawn through mos' of the day yesturday, but before I voted, I did explain my reasonin'.

(To speak more clearly dun=didn't/don't.)

So, other than that mistake with yur analysis, it wus rathuh well done. Though I am an innocen'.

I thought I wuld be able to be 'round all day an' vote, but I won't be. I 'ave some singin' and carollin' in a couple 'ours, I thought that wus aftah the party, buy apparently it's before. So, I won't be able to do a big analysis on Fordim, but I am goin' to go through 'is post and do sum thoughts.

I am no wolf Boro, though some of my actions may make me appear wolvish.~Kath

That wuts gits me worried, cus we dun 'ave many chances lef' and to make a mistake today, will make things only more difficult. I dun know whether to believe you, or not. Fur today, I will, as the mysterious disappearance of Lhuna is rathuh strange to me. Per'aps shes a wulf that 'as jus' givin up. Anyway, I will likely vote for Lhuna (which will come sumtime soon).

I tell any innocen' out there not to follow wi' Fordim. I thin' 'es our cobbler and 'is vote is ment fur us to be thrown off the track once again, like wut 'appened yesturday. Id vote fur Fordim, but bottom line is, if we aint catch a wulf soon, we in trouble, and I dun think Fordim is a wulf. Anway, my analysis on Fordim, and my vote will be comin' up shortly.

[Aiwendil]

To speak more clearly dun=didn't/don't.

Ah. I had thought "dun" = "done". If we survive this, I vow I shall teach thee to speak properly.

[Boromir88]

Pos' 13-14: Does 'is analysis of whos the "accusatory" and whos the "non-committed." Puts 'imself in the "self-appointed saviour" and says 'es either daring innocen' or arrogant wulf...Wut about a Cobbler tryin' to get us to follow 'is lead and led us wrong?

pos' 41: Votes fur Spawn. Goes along with Aiwendil's analysis of Spawn an' Gurthang. Says 'es not sure if eider Spawn or Gurthang is a wulf though.

Day 1: 'E seems fairly innocen' to me, givin' a 'and in the death of Spawn.

Pos' 83: Puts evryone into categories aggain. Says theres sum who are clumsy, sum who are "to good to be innocen'" an' the "happless" innocents.

Maybe its cus I believe Fordim is the cobbler, but to me 'is "groupin's" of peeple seem cobblerish. 'Is groupins are rather each the same, 'e just names 'em differently. 'E puts peeple in groups and says..."are theese peeple wulves or are they innocents?" To, me it sounds like sumthin' a cobbler wuld do. 'E makes a bunch of groups an' says these are wulfs or innocents...well no duh. Per'aps I jus' dun unnerstand 'is style.

Pos' 87: sarcastically responds to Gurthang's analysis of 'imself. And begins surspectin' Gurthang.

Pos' 108: Again puts peeple into groups. But this time actually names whos likely to be a wulf. Names Gurthang, Rune an' Wayne as 'is surspects. Though mos' peeple that day did.

Pos' 118: Does this system to try an' figger out whos a wulf. To me, it wus more confusin' then 'elpful (anothuh Cobbler trait?) As mormegil an' Aiwendil foun' problems with it. Evry system is gonna 'ave its problems but Fordim's system wus jus' complicated an' confusin'

Pos' 123: Goes with Aiwendil and mormegil, an' says that 'is system wus basically wrong, but it's not sumthin' evryone 'as to use.

Pos' 128: Votes fur Gurthang, 'is primary surspect through the day. So 'es consistant.

Day 2 Analysis: Consistant wi' 'is vote and surspect of Gurthang. Pos' 118 and 'is "system" seems like a cobbler move to launch confusion at us. But, still up until Day 2 I 'ad no strong suspishuns for 'im.

Pos' 158: 'Is only pos' of this day, as 'e is gone. He opposed the resson for the double lynchin'. 'E says 'e wus pretty sure Gurthang or Rune wus a wulf, but wus wrong. (As wus mos' of us). 'E goes strong aftuh Lhuna, in fact thats who mos' of this pos' wus about. But ends up votin' fur Wayne. I find it 'ere interestin', cus 'e goes aftuh Lhuna and says she votes fur "easy targets." Then 'e turns around and votes fur Wayne...'ypocritical there Fordim? Anuthuh Cobbler move masta Fordim.

Day 3 Analysis: it's up there. Now that I look back, this seems Cobbleresque. If 'E is the cobbler, 'e successfully got our suspishuns off Lhuna and Kath, an' we all know this day turned out to be a brawl 'tween me, Panman, and mormegil.

Pos' 232: again this is likely the only time well see Fordim today. Which if 'es a busy guy is unnerstandable. 'E says Formendacil and Lhuna could be wulves (no mention of Kath, but masta Fordim, 'sides me anyone could be a wulf). Then goes aftah Aiwendil and votes Aiwendil. Again, I fin' this as an attempt to jump on with Holby, and try to get us distracted frum the main surspects. Tryin' to keep us off off the right trail. Again, I fin' this move, like the day befor as Cobbleresque.

That's my analysis on Fordim. Take wut yu want wi' it. I wont be back fur the rest of the day. So, Im gonna vote for Lhuna, who 'as just disappeared. An' since I think Fordim is tryin' to get us off the wulf trail and aftah Aiwendil, Lhuna seems like a wulf. If Lhuna is a wulf, I will go back and consider Fordim as the las' wulf who 'as surspected Lhuna, but then backs off 'is suspishuns and goes aftah sumone else.

++Lhuna

[Boromir88]

Cross posted wi' Formendacil

[Aiwendil]

Thanks to Formendacil and Boromir for their analyses.

Boromir, I understand your voting for Lhuna now if you must be off. But I would again urge everyone else: don't vote hastily. We still have a Hunter and a Ranger out there somewhere, and it would really be a shame if we lynched one of them before he or she had a chance to come forward.

For myself, I am leaning heavily toward voting for Lhuna.

[Holbytlass]

I'm not going to be able to do Kath's analysis till next DAY, Eru willing I'm still alive. I'm voting now since I won't be able to get back on. Formendacil, that's pretty accurate of me, I'm innocent but nothing can clear me since I' m not gifted, there's nothing for me to reveal.

++Aiwendil

[Aiwendil]

It's been far too quiet.

The votes stand thus:

Aiwendil: 2
Lhunardawen: 1

As I see it, we have three options:

1. Lynch me
2. Lynch Lhunardawen
3. Get together a group of at least three like-minded people to lynch someone else.

So, in short, there's no point in voting for someone other than me or Lhunardawen unless you're sure that at least two others will vote the same way. An isolated vote, even for someone you believe to be guilty, will not help anything.

I'll be checking in every so often. Again, I strongly urge caution and advise against hasty voting.

[Formendacil]

Fordhim the Cobbler?

Interesting theory....

But I find one thing... wrong... about it, if I may say so. If Fordhim were the Cobbler, wouldn't he be making MORE noise? We're at, what, two posts in two days? Sick cousins or no, Fordhim has not been up to his usual, vocal, standards this game, even before the last couple days.

Of course, that COULD be a Cobbler tactic, since, as it is quite different from his usual style, it is confusing the heck out of us.

Now, if I understand this analysis plan of Morm's aright, he wants me to analyse Holbytlass. Well, I agree with the plan- it could turn up some good stuff. I am somewhat bemused that it is Morm who is proposing it, since it follows so completely with my stated opinion yesterday that he is playing a perfectly Morm-normal game...

Okay, on to Holbytlass...

Holby has been on the quieter side thus far this game- making my job a bit easier. DAY1 started for her with Post #26. In this, she proposes the absurd theory that we look at anyone animal related, that being Boromir, Fordhim, Lhuna, Jack, and herself, Holbytlass. A pretty much typical, nonsensical post for Day 1.

Holby's next post, also on DAY1, is Post #55. She reaffirms the assumption that her last post was a bit silly, and accuses Jack and Boromir of taking a conversation-starter too hard.

Her next post follows right after the last, Post #56. In it, she decides to vote "with her gut" (does this mean she was hungry?) and says that Jack has been too jumpy. She votes for Jack.

DAY2 dawns, and Holby's first post, #78, is fairly short. In it, she wonders at Jack having been the Seer, and at Gurthang's claim of the same title. She asks Gurthang to explain himself.

Also on DAY2, Post #92 is the first in which Holby declares herself suspicious of Aiwendil. She points out what could possibly have been collusion between Aiwendil and Dancing Spawn, and notes how Aiwendil has subtly been steering attention away from himself.

Later in DAY2, Post #106, Holby responds to Gurthang's defense of his actions, and refutes them, not believing them. She finishes with saying that her top suspects remain Aiwendil and Gurthang.

Three posts later, Post #109, Holby again responds to Gurthang's self-defense, with the same response. She also replies to Fordhim's lynch plan of the post above, with an affirmative outlook.

Holby's next post is a short one, Post #113, in which she reminds the village that voting patterns aren't usually discovered until after a period of days.

Two posts later, Post #115, Holby makes nearly exactly the same statement as Post #113, with the main difference being that this was now phrased as an official dismissal of Morm's village lynch plan.

Holby misses voting on DAY2 due to a child's injury.

Holby returns on DAY3, over a page later, with Post #166. She apologizes for missing the voting, and says that she would have voted for Gurthang, had she been present. She declares that Wilwa's death was an odd choice for the Wolves to make. Holby then goes on to say that wolf killing wolf is normal, if it saves a wolf's life, to refute Aiwendil's point- and she points out that, if Aiwendil is a wolf, this would fit his scenario. She also says that she is highly suspicious of his cautiousness.

Holby resurfaces later in DAY3, Post #194, where she agrees that she could have been Jack's last dream, because of his suspicions of her, and wishes that he had lived, so that he could declare her innocence. She goes on to say that she thinks Wayne innocent, and that Aiwendil is more suspicious. She finishes the post by casting her vote for Aiwendil.

Holby makes her first post of DAY4, Post #218, by saying that she was right, and Wayne wasn't bluffing. She responds to Morm's plan by saying that only the Hunter should reveal himself, and that Ranger should remain hidden.

Holby posts right after, with Post #219, with the voting record normally prepared by SPM. She includes, as an addendum, that she doesn't think Kath guilty on account of her quietness, thinking her even more quiet than usual.

Later, Post #228, Holby does an analysis of everybody's voting record, that is little more than a factual recitation of the record. Her ultimate analysis ends with declaring Aiwendil and Boromir her main suspects.

That's the record as it stands as I end this post...

Overall, there is nothing glaringly Wolfish about Holby, but that seems to be a trait that plagues this entire village. Her early record of voting for the seer, Jack is perhaps the most indicting part of her record, but happening as it did on DAY1, I am not inclined to make any accusations based on that alone. Her continuing suspicion of Aiwendil could be what makes or breaks her. It would almost be interesting to lynch him to see the effect on Holby.

If Aiwendil is a wolf, it would mean that either the two of them have been playing a major double bluff, or else that Holby has picked up on what the rest of us have missed. If Aiwendil is innocent, I would really bet that Holby is a wolf- although she could statistically just as easily be a misguided innocent.

Overally, I'm not inclined to think Holby guilty. However, I don't see her as a cleared-by-the-courts innocent, and I would leave her in the "neutral" category.

[mormegil]

It is nice to see some analyses coming in, though it seems like we won’t get them all. I will do my analysis of Aiwnedil, who has posted the most so far.

DAY 1

Post 5—Is a trifle bit incensed at the horrible pronunciation and spelling of words and vows to help our village out.

Post 15—Explains why he is visibly non-committal. Also gives his advice to the seer, you all remember it.

Post 17—Clarifies my assertion that his statement in post 15 seemed contradictory. This statement makes sense and seems reasonable.

Important to note that Spawn votes for him on the first day. Could speak to his innocence.

Post 35—Outlines all reactions to his seer approach and defends it. As I have stated I actually found his early statements very reasonable and non-wolfish but I pointed out the ‘contradiction’ to stir up talk, and it worked rather well. He now voices suspicion for Spawn for her reaction and her vote for him. Also, he is now suspicious of Gurthang because of his early vote for Formendacil

Post 37—cross posted and added Rune to his list of reactions but thinks Rune is innocent.

Post 50—Emphasizes that he is a man. Says that he’s suspicious of any that think his plan was a wolfish trick.

Post 63—He voices concern over the number of voted that Formendacil has received, especially in light of the fact that Formendacil has only posted once up to this point. He reiterates that he will most likely vote for Spawn, though he doesn’t want to cause a double lynching.

Post 66—Cues in on Boromir’s willingness to vote Spawn and cross posts his vote with Boromir’s vote for Spawn. This vote put Spawn in the lead and causes her to get lynched.

Overall DAY 1—He seems fairly consistent and made it so a wolf was lynched. As of this point I don’t find him suspicious unless there was a plot to sacrifice a wolf on this day, although Spawn did go after him. Does this speak to his credit or not?


DAY 2

Post 79—First he laments the loss of our seer and wishes his advise had been heeded. He is suspicious of all three that voted for Formendacil. Wilwarin, Gurthang and Jack, all three of whom are innocent.

Post 88—He begins to have some suspicion of Saucie and thinks that it’s possible that Jack dreamt of him but isn’t ready to add him to the “likely innocent” list.

Post 110—Thinks that everybody is too quick to give Wilwarin innocent status because of her tie breaking vote for the unknown Formendacil rather then the wolf Spawn. Also is becoming suspicious of Rune but missed him up until this point because of his focus on the Anti-Formendacil campaign. However despite his suspicions he is willing to lynch Wayne.

Post 121—Does not like Fordim’s quantitative analysis method and reiterates that he will vote for Wilwa or Rune, but more than likely it will be Rune because nobody is voting for Wilwa.

Post 143—Gives Rune his 3rd vote and says he considers Gurthang to be innocent and that we should look at Wilwa the next day.

Post 147 and 150—cross posted and rues that fact that his vote caused a tie though ends up thinking that my idea to double lynch that day is probably a good idea.

Overall DAY 2--The thing I find most interesting is that on DAY 1 and 2 he has been very consistent in all but one thing. He never gave any explanation as to why he suspected and voted Rune. I think he saw the tide turning towards Rune and either hoped on that as an innocent or with malicious intent. I’m not yet sure but it raised my eyebrow when I saw it.


DAY 3

Post 157—Essentially, he says that everything he has done, with the exception of his Spawn vote, has gone horribly wrong and says he will rethink everything.

Post 159—Here he introduces a his new thought which sounds more like something they would be taught in Harry Potters Defense Against the Dark Arts class it is called: Mathematical Methods of Wolf Detection (oh I could just see Hermione loving this class .) Anyway he comes up with his numerical method and gives everybody a score. The problem with this is that it seems too subjective. He realizes that there are probably errors in it and possibly missed variables but overall most people don’t respond to it.

Post 160—Defends the double lynch and admits that he was wrong in his suspicions.

Post 182—Is a long post analyzing me. He basically takes my actions and evaluates them as if I were an innocent, wolf or cobbler and comes to the conclusion that I’m reasonable if I’m innocent but also if I’m a wolf. Basically says it’s a point of view or perspective issue. Voices concern over Kath and Lhuna and their “safe votes” but notes that Lhuna’s most recent vote for me is not so safe.

Post 188—He is grateful to have Spm’s confidence but he doesn’t think he will survive the night. Restates that he is suspicious of both Kath and Lhuna though he is considering going for me. Gets confused over a statement of mine.

Post 190—After Boromir, in post 189, clarified for me (thank you Boro) what I meant and how I knew Spawn would be having some difficulties, he is grateful and dismisses that doubt of me.

Post 196—He now has been voted for (I think twice) and is willing to form a voting block because “In any case, since I know I'm innocent (and since I don't want to kill an innocent), and since there's a chance anyone else could be a wolf”. So essentially he’s saying I’m innocent but somebody else could be a wolf...let’s kill them instead! A bit odd and suspicious. Another thing in this post he has expressed doubt about Kath and Lhuna and I’ve been a ‘chance’ now Kath and I are his main suspects with no mention of Lhuna??? I’m not sure why, he could have merely changed his mind and not told anybody but he could be intentionally casting suspicion on Lhuna but taking it away before it’s too much. Anyway, does this make him wolf? Not sure but likely not, it’s more likely that he changed his mind and didn’t vocalize it.

Post 199—Objects to Formendacil’s vote for Boromir and states that he doesn’t see the point in voting for somebody who is not likely to be lynched. I found this odd and posted about it. I think, more than likely, it’s a difference of opinion and not suspicious.

Post 202—Begins to see eye to eye with me to a degree on my complaint of his last point. Thinks Boromir is acting a bit strange and will do whatever it takes to save himself i.e. voting for Wayne.

Post 204—Asserts his notion that SpM is innocent and tries to form and alliance with him. Seems likely to be an innocent move but then again we have been giving him the “you’re innocent” card since DAY 2 so it might not be a bad strategy for a wolf to pull.

Post 206—Doesn’t want to go for Boromir because of Boro’s vote on DAY 1 for Spawn and would rather go for me because of his idea that I’ve “made no innocent moves”.

Post 211—Is confused about whom to vote for. Wants to know why Saucepan Man thinks I am innocent and he is reticent to vote for Boromir. Thinks killing Wayne might be good because he thinks him to be the cobbler. Now I want to know what happened to Kath and Lhuna. I realize that you want to save yourself but at times innocents should sacrifice themselves for a cause they truly believe in.

Post 212—Votes Wayne

Overall DAY 3—He was really consistent on DAY 1 and 2 but lost some of it here which makes me think and wonder a bit.


DAY 4

Post 216—Is a good post and I think speaks somewhat to his innocence. He reiterates that he is suspicious of Kath, Lhuna and Mormegil. (I’m glad to see it back to all three) He implies why he began to drop Kath and Lhuna the DAY before, which is essentially there was too much focus on others and that we (fellow innocents) need to come together today and get it right.

Post 225—Proposes a hybrid plan based on my idea of the Hunter and possibly the Ranger coming forward. His plan is that we all list who we are going to vote for and then if it seems either are in trouble they can come forward.

Post 230—Uses numerical method and essentially clears Formendacil of all suspicion and says I still am highly suspicious but I could be innocent. Voices continued concern over Kath and Lhuna and thinks they may be a good idea for today.

Post 233—Reiterates that we should not be rash in our voting toDAY. It seems as though he wants control and to keep us organized. A very helpful thing to do if innocent and dangerous but fruitful if a wolf.

Post 235—He is rather defensive about himself and doesn’t think Fordim is a wolf although admits that Boromir could be correct in thinking him to be a cobbler, to which idea I myself subscribe now.

Post 240—Analysis of Boromir which doesn’t seem to come to a conclusion.


My conclusion

Overall I think Aiwendil is innocent and I will give him the benefit of my small doubts. I will continue to watch for any and all suspicious behavior however. He has been very consistent, which can be difficult for wolves to do. The major nagging doubt is he early thinks that Rune is innocent but then out of the blue suspects him and votes for him. Also if Boromir is a wolf then it might be safe to think that Aiwnedil is either taken in by Boromir or a wolf himself.

One last request of you Aiwendil, can you make a better case against Kath and Lhuna other than their "safe votes"? I ask because I am suspicious of them but want to hear more reasons from you.

I hope you enjoyed this because it took me a really long time.

[Aiwendil]

Good analysis, on the whole, Mormegil, and my apologies for being so verbose! I've had far too much free time this past week.

Allow me to explain my vote for Rune. On DAY 2, I was fixated (mistakenly, it seems) on the idea that the Wolves would have attempted to save Spawn on DAY 1. That led me initially to look at Wilwarin, because I was focusing on the strange number of votes for Formendacil. Then Boromir pointed out (in post 84) that Rune had tied things up at 2-2-2 among Spawn, Formendacil, and Wayne. This looked to me like another possible attempt to save Spawn. So both Wilwarin and Rune made what seemed to me to be suspect votes. With no apparent prospect for Wilwarin's lynching, I voted for Rune.

One last request of you Aiwendil, can you make a better case against Kath and Lhuna other than their "safe votes"? I ask because I am suspicious of them but want to hear more reasons from you.

My suspicion is tenuous, I admit. The chief factor is that they have so far played a very "quiet" game, and not only in terms of the number of posts they've made. They have both avoided anything that would bring much attention to them. They have not made any bold accusations or come forward with notable plans or suggestions. They have not gotten caught up in any major controversy. And they have voted safely. It seems to me that on the whole it is beneficial to a Wolf not to be noticed. The quieter a person is, the less evidence everyone else has to go on in analyzing that person. I'm not saying, of course, that a Wolf can't be loud - but it seems to me that Kath and Lhunardawen have gotten off fairly easily so far due primarily to their being quiet.

What worries me is that I can think of another kind of person who wouldn't want to draw attention to himself or herself - a Gifted. It's possible that what we have in Kath or in Lhuna or in both is a desire to hide not from the villagers but from the Wolves. That's largely why I've repeatedly urged caution today. If we lynch a Gifted, we're really in trouble.

[mormegil]

I agree that we dont' want to lynch a gifted and I am in favor, somewhat, of lynching Lhuna. However the problem remains that she hasn't voiced anything today and knowing her time zones a bit I don't think she will. So if she is gifted she won't be able to tell us but honestly I doubt that she is but then again I have been wrong before .

[Formendacil]

The final hour of the day draws nigh, and our voted-for frontrunners are Lhuna and Aiwendil.

As regards our front-runner, Aiwendil, I am inclined to think that he innocent. He COULD be a Werewolf, and even if he's innocent, his death could have some interesting implications...

However, this village is rather small as of know, and if Aiwendil isn't guilty, and since I'm not guilty, then that leaves six people, of whom two are guilty- assuming that Aiwendil is not, which I am going to take for a given, for the purposes of this voting choice, since I don't think him guilty enough to lynch.

As noted, I have a one in three chance. Not stellar... but better than we started with...

Our only other candidate thus far voted for, Lhuna, is overall a better candidate than Aiwendil, if only on the basis of her quiet habits this game. While it's true that she's in another timezone- and thus only really gets in on the conversation before it really boils over- it is possible that she is simply a werewolf playing a quiet game. I could be wrong, but I'm going to trust that timezone excuse for at least another day.

Boromir88 has, thus far, seemed innocent and helpful, but I don't entirely trust him, and its tempting to vote him off just on the basis of his "dun"s and the like. I mean, who wants to have to translate as well as think when reading a post?

I'm being facetious, however. This is no longer DAY1, and the time for randomly voting based on silly excuses is over.

Fordhim, if the cobbler- which I am starting to think more likely, based on the persuasive arguments in that direction- is, in my opinion, freer therefore from lynching, since being the Cobbler means that he is NOT a Werewolf. So, if I scratch him off of my "probables" list, then I'm down to a 2/5 chance of voting Werewolf.

Morm has played a VERY typically Morm game: holding votes till the end, trying to use his rhetoric to direct everyone else's votes, and organising a roundtable analysis. It so similar to his, innocent, performance, that I'm really thinking that he's innocent. However, if he is a Werewolf, wouldn't this be the most natural thing to do? And, if so, it's really working...

Holbytlass was my candidate to analyse, and I'm less assured-feeling of her innocence than I am of Morm, but she's hardly on my "guilty" list. If I vote for her, it'll probably be because everyone else looks so clean, rather than that she looks dirty.

And so I come to Kath, the last on the list, and easy to overlook because of her silence. As with Aiwendil, I'm rather suspicious of this quietude, and I wouldn't be surprised to find a wolf hiding in that quiet corner. On the other hand, as with Lhuna, I'm hesitant to vote for her based simply on that.

So, to decide...

Of my seven possible votes, I've decided to cross Aiwendil off. Fordhim, assuming (wrongly or rightly) that he's the Cobbler, is also exempt. I've allowed myself to let Lhuna go.

That leaves:

Boromir
Holbytlass
Kath
Morm

Of the three, I'm thinking that Morm is the most innocent. So off the list he goes... I have no real concerns about Holbytlass, so off she goes.

Boromir and Kath...

As hesitant as I am to vote for a quiet person...

Kath looks the most suspicious to me today. I guess I she gets the short straw...

Kath

[Formendacil]

Oops...

forgot those plus signs...

++ Kath

[mormegil]

Kath or Lhuna? I'm slightly inclined to vote either but unsure I hope to return in 30 mins to vote.

[Kath]

I'm not sure I should really appeal to save myself since I'm not totally sure of Lhuna's guilt, but if I don't then you will for certain be lynching an innocent rather than only possibly doing so. On the other hand I don't want to cause a double lynching because if I vote for Lhuna and then the two of you vote for me it's possible that two innocents will die and that's even worse.

So speak to me morm, Aiwendil - what do I do here? Bearing in mind I have but eight minutes to decide.

[Aiwendil]

Now Formendacil has done just what I advised against - voted without: 1. putting the name forward first in case she's Gifted and 2. making sure there are at least two other people willing to vote for Kath.

Now, as it happens, I am willing to vote for Kath. So I guess that leaves Mormegil and me to decide 'twixt Kath and Lhuna.

Morm - thoughts?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Aiwendil

Now Formendacil has done just what I advised against - voted without: 1. putting the name forward first in case she's Gifted and 2. making sure there are at least two other people willing to vote for Kath.

Now, as it happens, I am willing to vote for Kath. So I guess that leaves Mormegil and me to decide 'twixt Kath and Lhuna.

Morm - thoughts?

So far you are leading the voting, Master Aiwendil, and with less than an hour left, I am rather doubtful that we shall see either of them, particularly our dearly Filipina Lhuna make an appearance ere the end of the day.

And, if they do, they neither will be lynched by me. Only if others arrive and vote for them as well.