Ahoy there, me hearties!
I am feeling most optimistic, you know, after the death of Rune. It's obviously not good that we lost Fin, but that was not unexpected. Not that it means much to the rest of you, but I expected the Wolves to leave Taliesin around, what with his supicions of me 'n all, so I was fully expecting the absence of either Fin or Caran this morning. Indeed, I must raise a metaphorical arched eyebrow at Glirdan's (feigned?) surprise over this turn of events. It was always going to be one of three people that we lost last Night.
"But why the optimism, Rear-Admiral?" I hear you cry. Well, two reasons in particular.
First, the innocents are the majority in a three-way fight. Effectively, there are seven innocents against two teams of two, with all to play for. At least one, and possibly both, of the known non-Wolves are on the innocents' side. And the rest of us may not know who each other are, but numbers remain on our side for now and, if we keep our wits about us, we may even be able to pull together in a fashion.
Secondly, the death of a Wolf always provides top quality evidence. However diligently that Wolf, and his fiendish comrades, may have tried to hide their tracks, there will always be clues. We now have a wealth of evidence to sift through. I suggest that we set to it. In particular, we should be looking at:
- The cumulative voting patterns over the four Days so far.
- In particular, the way the votes went yesterDay, given the (happily fruitful) prospect of Rune's lynching throughout much of the Day.
- The manner in which suspicion against Rune gathered yesterDay.
- What Rune has said about his fellow passengers over the four Days.
- What Rune's fellow passengers said about him over the four Days.
- Possible other connections between prospective Wolves and prospective Lovers.
- The possible effect of the Lovers' presence on Wolvish behaviour, both retrospectively and prospectively.
We should also, of course, continue carefully to consider what each of us says as the Day progresses.
Since I could be relatively reassured that I would survive the Night, I took the opportunity to do a fair bit of analysis along the above lines overNight. I'll try to post as much of it as I can toDay*, since I anticipate that I will not be around too much on the morrow*. I have no definite conclusions at this stage, and I am really aiming just to post the evidence, pose a few questions on the basis of it and perhaps put forward a few tentative theories.
I am really rather confident that we will catch another Wolf toDay, you know. Wouldn't it be interesting if we were to catch one of the two remaining Loveless Wolves, setting up the delicious prospect of two remaining Wolves who each know that the other cannot be trusted?
Oh well, best get on. Back soon.
Toodle pip!
Edit: * For clarity, I mean that I will try to post as much of the analysis RL tonight as I will not be around much RL tomorrow.