Time, tide, and BD discussion threads wait for no man. I haven't been able to read or compose in detail as I'd like, but I thought I'd throw out at least a few thoughts.
It seems to me at least that Gandalf presumes that Sauron was thinking of Pippin when he spoke of "this dainty":
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Originally Posted by Gandalf
If he had questioned you, then and there, almost certainly you would have told all that you know, to the ruin of us all. But he was too eager. He did not want information only: he wanted you, quickly, so that he could deal with you in the Dark Tower, slowly.
That dark mind will be filled now with the voice and face of the hobbit and with expectation: it may take some time before he learns his error.
So Saruman will come to the last pinch of the vice that he has put his hand in. He has no captive to send. He has no Stone to see with, and cannot answer the summons. Sauron will only believe that he is withholding the captive and refusing to use the Stone. It will not help Saruman to tell the truth to the messenger.
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"He wanted
you."
The dark mind which had been seeking his lost Ring literally for centuries would now be filled with the "voice and face of the hobbit", rather than the Ring, if he thought that was what he was sending for?
And lastly, mention is made of "the captive", but not the Ring.
Make of those what you will. To my mind, Gandalf did not jump to the conclusion that Sauron thought Saruman had captured the Ring.
Even a cursory glance at "The Hunt for the Ring" from UT (with the usual caveat that the text is unfinished, and indeed exists in several varying forms -- but what the heck, we're using UT as authoritative on how the Palantķri function) shows that Sauron by no means considered Saruman loyal at this late date, no matter which version you examine.
I have some ideas on what this implies for who knew what when, and what some of the dynamics might have been, but they will have to wait for a later date, I'm afraid.
One interesting thing of note is that my impression on a quick skim is that Uruks and Northerners from Moria attacked the Fellowship at Amon Hen; Grishnįkh may or may not have been with them at that time, or may have caught up with them afterward; either way, I think he's the sole Mordor rep at first. After he stirs up the pot and it goes against the Northerners, I think Grishnįkh slinks off, and only returns later with a band of Mordor orcs -- just in time to get rounded up and slaughtered by the Rohirrim. In other words, the group that attacked the Fellowship may not have been a Mordor/Isengard coalition force.
Last quick point. Going back to "The Hunt for the Ring":
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Originally Posted by UT
"Sauron's fears were much allayed when he perceived from Gollum's account that Baggins must have been a creature of the same sort."
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You don't think twice about calling a creature from a species of furry-footed little creatures an "it", especially if you're the most egotistical being walking Middle-earth.