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Originally Posted by Brinn
Okay, so I just spent an hour and a half taking notes, so I hope I got something out of it:
Nogrod: He might be a gifted, but I doubt he's the seer. At first his arguments against Mac made me suspect that, but then he changed his mind and didn't even vote for him. I doubt a seer would do that. He could still look like a possible suspect to others, so I think we should leave him alone.
Mith: Could be a possible gifted as well. If she's a seer, she dreamt of Nogrod last Night because she doesn't seem to mention him yesterDay. I don't know. She didn't get a chance to participate due to RL, so I'd like to leave her alone.
Legate: Very hard to say. If he were the seer, he would probably dream of Nogrod Night 1 and Mac Night 2. He doesn't seem to suspect Mac at first yesterDay, but after a hard debate, he chooses him. If he is a seer, he's being very sneaky about it. He's a possible kill choice, but I still partly fear the chance that he's a hunter, and if he were, I'm not completely sure who he'd hunt.
The Might: If there's any chance at all he's gifted, he'd be a seer for his very major change of opinion on Nogrod and his tendency to bandwagon with him. When I think about it, it's a very newbie seerish behaviour. But then again, I'm kind of doubtful a newbie would be given the most important role. I don't know how suspicious he'll look toMorrow; he voted the right person, but it came from a bandwagon. He's a possible kill choice....I doubt he'd be protected either.
Nerwen: I really don't know. She tries to be helpful without saying too much. But I don't think she's the seer. I'd only kill her if we wanted to pick someone who won't leave much tracks.
Sally: Hasn't said enough for me to figure anything out. I think it'd be smart to leave her alive. Some people slightly suspect her, and they might fear she is an under-the-radar balrog and vote for her.
Shasta: Hasn't provided any substance. I'd leave him alone. There's a chance he could get mod-killed in the future.
Gil: I don't think he's our seer, partly because I think he would've dreamt of me already if he were. He got some votes yesterDay and could be a possible lynch candidate for toMorrow. Let's leave him be.
Kath: She's the only one I'm confident is not the seer simply because she would've already dreamt of Nogrod by now. She's gathered suspicion, so I'd choose to leave her alone too.
When it comes to gifteds, I think there's a good chance at least one of them is a newbie. After all, 1/3 of the remaining possibilites are newbies and I think Lommy would mix it up when choosing the gifteds.
About lovers. I took a look at all the possibilities and there's 34 of them. The odds are not in our favour. Most of the possibilites, I have no idea whether they could be lovers or not. I do think if none of the newbies are gifted, one is at least a lover (or maybe we have a lover and gifted among those three). If a newbie is a lover, they're probably paired with a more vocal and experienced player. Anyways, here's some combinations I had thoughts on:
Nogrod and Mith: I think it's unlikely. Mith voted for Nogrod Day 1 at a point where it was uncertain how the votes would turn.
Nogrod and Legate: I know you mentioned it, and I guess it's possible. They have been careful to suspect each other slightly, but not too much....it's almost too careful, really. These two were teamed as gifteds in the last game. They were very good at keeping their distance and won because they played together very well. The chances they're paired again are possible, but unlikely (and they're so good, it'd just be unfair ). If one of these two is the seer (more likely Legate ), then I'm sure he already dreamt of Nogrod and is being careful because he knows he's innocent.
Nogrod and Gil: This is a possible coupling. Nogrod goes back and forth on Gil, ultimately saying he's probably innocent. Gil says he finds Nogrod's behaviour irrational. Neither have voted for each other.
Mith and Legate: They make very little mention of one another, so it is a possibility.
Mith and Kath: Possibility for the same reasons above.
Legate and Might: I thought Nogrod's idea that these two were paired as balrogs interesting, though wrong. Though, what if they are paired, but as lovers? Legate sort of mentoring his newbie lover. He does say he highly suspects him, but then fails to vote for him.
Again, I don't think two quiet ones would be paired as lovers or two newbies. I do think there is a good chance one lover is a gifted.
Kill Possibilities: Legate, The Might, Mith (and I'm reluctant to choose Mith)
When I think about it, the more and more I like the idea of Legate and Might as seer/ordinary lovers. Let's just theorize if they were:
Night 1:
Legate dreams of Nogrod and tells Might of his innocence. But Legate being the experienced mentor, tells him to keep his distance toMorrow.
Day 1:
The two possibilites are Rikae and Nogrod. Knowing the latter is innocent, Legate clearly directs suspicion at Rikae and keeps distance from Might by pointing out weird behaviour in his posts. Might keeps his distance by voting Nogrod. It doesn't seem too risky since Rikae is already in the clear lead. Legate votes Rikae.
Night 2:
Legate dreams of Mac and tells Might.
Day 2:
Might still knowing he's innocent, chooses to openly change opinion of Nogrod. After all, he knows Nogrod is accurate with his suspicions of Mac and decides to help push for his lynching by backing Nogrod up. I don't know if that's the smartest of tactics, but then again he is a newbie.
Legate tries to be more subtle. Instead of making a "crusade" against Mac, he gradually suspects him more and more. He attacks Might to keep distance, using him as a number 2 suspect. It was a safe plan, since Might wasn't at risk of getting lynched at the time. And if Mac was lynched, he probably figured Might wouldn't look so suspicious and he would play with that.
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Okay, I feel really strong about this idea, but then again, it almost seems too easy. I've been wrong many times before. The only time I've been right about a theory this big was in Legate's game.
Okay, if Legate is the seer and doesn't get killed toNight, I think we'd still be alright. He was a bit suspicious of Kath and Sally, both of which didn't even vote. I think it'd be most likely he would dream of one of those two.
We could try to kill Legate, after all we thought he was protected last Night. But we could be wrong...it's totally possible he could be protected toNight instead (after yesterDay, he's looking pretty innocent). Then, we might be totally wrong and he could be something else, like the hunter. But even then, we might be okay because once again it's more likely he'd hunt Kath or Sally.
Or, if we're sure enough that these two are lovers, we could kill Might. I highly doubt anyone will protect him. If I'm right, we'd be taking down Legate too. But of course, if I'm wrong, Legate lives. And if Legate is protected, I don't know what happens (can a ranger protect a lover from killing himself? I don't know).
When it comes down to it, I'm all for killing either Legate or Might. I want to put my theory to the test. The question is, which one? I'm almost leaning a little more towards Might, but I'm still undecided. Let me know what you think.
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