WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Brinniel]

Night 3

After Mac's death. Naria made the first obvious statement:

Originally Posted by Naria

We need to figure out who the Seer is toNight.

The next is some random first thoughts just after the Day ended. All before any really analysing.

Originally Posted by Brinn

I can't say how things are going to go toMorrow. I don't know if people are suddenly going to start suspecting me or you. Mac's accusations will either help or condemn me. But I wouldn't be surprised if I were next. Urgh...I probably should've voted for Mac. *hits head against the desk*

I'm pretty sure now Nogrod is not our seer. And I'm not sure Legate is either, but he could quite easily be a gifted. Legate is going to look very innocent toMorrow,I'd like to kill him, but I fear the possibility of him being the hunter. If he were, would he choose one of us?

I need to go back and look at seer/gifted clues. Though I'm thinking, if we can't find the seer, we could always try to go after the lovers....search for possible alliances. Two kills in one Night would be nice. I can't look at anything now, but I will later tonight.

Originally Posted by Naria

Hehe, do you think that Lommy would pair Nog and Legate together as the Lovers? I mean they have both been really chummy and when has Nog ever been consistenly nice to someone. I wouldn't put it past either one of them to come up with the idea that they will be totally open with their favourtism. Even if someone picked up on that, no ordo is going to point it out. Mainly for fear of not knowing if it's an ordo/ordo pair or gifted/ordo pair.

I actually wrote Naria another PM later on with many long analyses and theories in a four page PM that took two hours to write. Unfortunately when I hit "send," I got a notice saying her inbox was full. She never did see the PM until I sent it to her the next Night. But the PM did include a lot of thoughts that lead up to my kill choice:

Originally Posted by Brinn

Okay, so I just spent an hour and a half taking notes, so I hope I got something out of it:

Nogrod: He might be a gifted, but I doubt he's the seer. At first his arguments against Mac made me suspect that, but then he changed his mind and didn't even vote for him. I doubt a seer would do that. He could still look like a possible suspect to others, so I think we should leave him alone.

Mith: Could be a possible gifted as well. If she's a seer, she dreamt of Nogrod last Night because she doesn't seem to mention him yesterDay. I don't know. She didn't get a chance to participate due to RL, so I'd like to leave her alone.

Legate: Very hard to say. If he were the seer, he would probably dream of Nogrod Night 1 and Mac Night 2. He doesn't seem to suspect Mac at first yesterDay, but after a hard debate, he chooses him. If he is a seer, he's being very sneaky about it. He's a possible kill choice, but I still partly fear the chance that he's a hunter, and if he were, I'm not completely sure who he'd hunt.

The Might: If there's any chance at all he's gifted, he'd be a seer for his very major change of opinion on Nogrod and his tendency to bandwagon with him. When I think about it, it's a very newbie seerish behaviour. But then again, I'm kind of doubtful a newbie would be given the most important role. I don't know how suspicious he'll look toMorrow; he voted the right person, but it came from a bandwagon. He's a possible kill choice....I doubt he'd be protected either.

Nerwen: I really don't know. She tries to be helpful without saying too much. But I don't think she's the seer. I'd only kill her if we wanted to pick someone who won't leave much tracks.

Sally: Hasn't said enough for me to figure anything out. I think it'd be smart to leave her alive. Some people slightly suspect her, and they might fear she is an under-the-radar balrog and vote for her.

Shasta: Hasn't provided any substance. I'd leave him alone. There's a chance he could get mod-killed in the future.

Gil: I don't think he's our seer, partly because I think he would've dreamt of me already if he were. He got some votes yesterDay and could be a possible lynch candidate for toMorrow. Let's leave him be.

Kath: She's the only one I'm confident is not the seer simply because she would've already dreamt of Nogrod by now. She's gathered suspicion, so I'd choose to leave her alone too.

When it comes to gifteds, I think there's a good chance at least one of them is a newbie. After all, 1/3 of the remaining possibilites are newbies and I think Lommy would mix it up when choosing the gifteds.

About lovers. I took a look at all the possibilities and there's 34 of them. The odds are not in our favour. Most of the possibilites, I have no idea whether they could be lovers or not. I do think if none of the newbies are gifted, one is at least a lover (or maybe we have a lover and gifted among those three). If a newbie is a lover, they're probably paired with a more vocal and experienced player. Anyways, here's some combinations I had thoughts on:

Nogrod and Mith: I think it's unlikely. Mith voted for Nogrod Day 1 at a point where it was uncertain how the votes would turn.

Nogrod and Legate: I know you mentioned it, and I guess it's possible. They have been careful to suspect each other slightly, but not too much....it's almost too careful, really. These two were teamed as gifteds in the last game. They were very good at keeping their distance and won because they played together very well. The chances they're paired again are possible, but unlikely (and they're so good, it'd just be unfair ). If one of these two is the seer (more likely Legate ), then I'm sure he already dreamt of Nogrod and is being careful because he knows he's innocent.

Nogrod and Gil: This is a possible coupling. Nogrod goes back and forth on Gil, ultimately saying he's probably innocent. Gil says he finds Nogrod's behaviour irrational. Neither have voted for each other.

Mith and Legate: They make very little mention of one another, so it is a possibility.

Mith and Kath: Possibility for the same reasons above.

Legate and Might: I thought Nogrod's idea that these two were paired as balrogs interesting, though wrong. Though, what if they are paired, but as lovers? Legate sort of mentoring his newbie lover. He does say he highly suspects him, but then fails to vote for him.

Again, I don't think two quiet ones would be paired as lovers or two newbies. I do think there is a good chance one lover is a gifted.

Kill Possibilities: Legate, The Might, Mith (and I'm reluctant to choose Mith)

When I think about it, the more and more I like the idea of Legate and Might as seer/ordinary lovers. Let's just theorize if they were:

Night 1:
Legate dreams of Nogrod and tells Might of his innocence. But Legate being the experienced mentor, tells him to keep his distance toMorrow.

Day 1:
The two possibilites are Rikae and Nogrod. Knowing the latter is innocent, Legate clearly directs suspicion at Rikae and keeps distance from Might by pointing out weird behaviour in his posts. Might keeps his distance by voting Nogrod. It doesn't seem too risky since Rikae is already in the clear lead. Legate votes Rikae.

Night 2:
Legate dreams of Mac and tells Might.

Day 2:
Might still knowing he's innocent, chooses to openly change opinion of Nogrod. After all, he knows Nogrod is accurate with his suspicions of Mac and decides to help push for his lynching by backing Nogrod up. I don't know if that's the smartest of tactics, but then again he is a newbie.

Legate tries to be more subtle. Instead of making a "crusade" against Mac, he gradually suspects him more and more. He attacks Might to keep distance, using him as a number 2 suspect. It was a safe plan, since Might wasn't at risk of getting lynched at the time. And if Mac was lynched, he probably figured Might wouldn't look so suspicious and he would play with that.

--------

Okay, I feel really strong about this idea, but then again, it almost seems too easy. I've been wrong many times before. The only time I've been right about a theory this big was in Legate's game.

Okay, if Legate is the seer and doesn't get killed toNight, I think we'd still be alright. He was a bit suspicious of Kath and Sally, both of which didn't even vote. I think it'd be most likely he would dream of one of those two.

We could try to kill Legate, after all we thought he was protected last Night. But we could be wrong...it's totally possible he could be protected toNight instead (after yesterDay, he's looking pretty innocent). Then, we might be totally wrong and he could be something else, like the hunter. But even then, we might be okay because once again it's more likely he'd hunt Kath or Sally.

Or, if we're sure enough that these two are lovers, we could kill Might. I highly doubt anyone will protect him. If I'm right, we'd be taking down Legate too. But of course, if I'm wrong, Legate lives. And if Legate is protected, I don't know what happens (can a ranger protect a lover from killing himself? I don't know).

When it comes down to it, I'm all for killing either Legate or Might. I want to put my theory to the test. The question is, which one? I'm almost leaning a little more towards Might, but I'm still undecided. Let me know what you think.

In the final hours I tried to email Naria since her inbox was still full, but I realised I probably wasn't going to get in contact with her, which worried me. I'm pretty sure I actually lost sleep over this, debating whether to pick Legate or Might. In class the next day, I didn't pay any attention to the discussion but instead took notes on different scenarios that could play out, and the positives and negatives to picking one of the two. In the end, I decided Might was the smartest choice. I gave one last effort to email Naria:

Originally Posted by Brinn

I just sent The Might as our kill. Why?

-He's less likely to be protected
-If my theory is wrong, he still won't leave tons of tracks and his death might incriminate an innocent. Hopefully it won't make either of us suspicious.
-I PMed Lommy and she said if someone's protected, it will be indicated in the narration. So, if Legate's a seer, he could reveal knowing he'll die the next Night. Even worse, he could end up a ranger and reveal, resulting in the seer revealing too. We could kill the ranger, but the seer would still have an opportunity to dream of us.

I keep second-guessing myself, but I hope I made the right decision. We'll see.

A few last comments:

-If any chance I gather up a lot of suspicion toDay like Mac did, I might reveal myself as a gifted (depending on how the kill goes). I doubt it'd help save me, but if I go down, I want to at least keep it interesting. And at least it would probably draw out a gifted for you to kill.

Waiting for the narration, I was so scared...so I'm sure you'll understand how happy I was when Might turned out to be the seer. I don't know why I originally thought he was more likely to be lovers with the seer...it just seemed more plausible at the time. That, or I like to complicate things.

And yeah, when I was getting a lot of suspicion, I seriously considered revealing myself with a special role. But then the voting got close, and I decided against it.

[The Might]

Nasty balrogs...

[Brinniel]

Night 4

Originally Posted by Brinn

Wow, that was a close one. For awhile I didn't think I was going to make it. Not to mention, this isn't the first time I've narrowly escaped lynching as a wolf. But yay...another victory for us.

And as for The Might being the seer...I wasn't expecting that. I thought he was a lover...

Anyways, I feel quite sure I'm not going to survive toMorrow...it'll be a miracle if I do. It could depend on how the Night goes, but the votes against me could roll in quickly. So we better do as much damage as possible while I'm still here.

Next, we need to look particularly for the ranger. Though finding lovers would be nice too. And we've got to avoid the hunter because I have a hunch whoever it is will hunt me.

But if I'm not hunted down and we don't kill the lovers, and I look basically doomed for lynching Day 4, I plan to claim I'm a lover. It could work (a real lover would commit suicide by revealing their partner). I'm doubtful anyone would believe me, but I'd do it in the hope of drawing out at least one lover; then it'd be a lot easier figuring out the identity of the other lover and you could kill them.

At this point, I have no idea who to pick...I'm quite scared of everyone.

I didn't hear from Naria until shortly before the deadline, so if you can't tell, I was pretty nervous writing this. Not to mention, I kept changing my mind halfway through:

Originally Posted by Brinn

I must admit, I'm feeling a little panicky right now, mainly because I haven't heard from you for two Nights and I'm quite certain this will be my last Night alive. But I really do hope you show up before the deadline, as I really hate to make another decision alone. Here are some thoughts of mine:

It's really important we kill the ranger and avoid the hunter more than anything. Unfortunately, I don't know how we do that, unless it's by luck. Quite frankly, the hunter and ranger typically won't appear much different than an ordinary. A hunter can only guess like an ordinary who the baddies are; their role doesn't take action until they are dead. The only clue to who the hunter may be is perhaps someone who is trying to look way innocent and before Day 3, maybe seerish - a martyr. As for the ranger, they have no idea whether the person they're protecting is actually innocent...it's only a guess. The only time they know something is when the one they're protecting is attacked. But in this case, it's possible everyone will know from the narrations. I don't know how much I like the idea of a known innocent wandering around, even if it did mean a for sure kill for the next Night.

Lovers. The possibilities went from 34 to 19...but that's still a lot. Your idea that Legate and Nogrod are lovers is starting to look more likely, but I'm still not sure. I wrote some possibilities in the PM I tried to send yesterDay; I'll send it to you again, though obviously not all of it will be useful anymore. There are so many possible combinations of lovers, and after spending an hour on a theory I was wrong about last Night, I rather not waste my time overanalysing again, especially considering the late hour.

Quite honestly, I almost prefer if the lovers didn't die toNight. Partly because the risk one may be a hunter. Also because if in trouble, I still want to claim I'm a lover....it'd cause a lot of helpful confusion. If lovers do die (which of course would still be a good thing, as long as one isn't the hunter), and if I'm a dead girl anyway, I'll just claim I'm a ranger. They'll be less likely to believe me, and if they did, I'd be revealed not much later, but at least it would expose the ranger. And hopefully they cannot protect themself.

For our kill, here's some thoughts:

Nogrod- If he wasn't protected last Night, he'll definitely be protected toNight as a practically known innocent. I'm not willing to risk it.

Mith- I'm actually considering the possiblity she could be a lover. Yet, with her last minute vote and my last comment, she could possibly be seen as suspicious for being hypocritical, plus I think things might go badly for me if I kill her.

Legate- Boy, is he an endless debate. I still get the feeling he's not just an ordo, but I'm not sure what he is. If he's the hunter, it'll be a toss-up between hunting me or Nerwen. There's also a chance he could be protected as quite a few people saw him as innocent.

Nerwen- There's no way we can kill her. If she dies, I WILL be lynched toMorrow, no doubt about it.

Shasta- He's kept pretty much under the radar, along with you. I kind of doubt he has a special role, though I'm not positive. After Sally, the other enigma, got lynched and he didn't vote for me despite expressing suspicion, he could be seen as a possible balrog. I suppose if we wanted to play it safest, he'd be our kill. But I think it may be smarter to leave him alive; I partly fear that if he dies, more attention will be drawn to you, as you'll be the only quiet one left.

Kath- She's been gathering some suspicion for quite sometime now. And with her out-of-nowhere vote for Sally (which basically gave me a chance of survival), she could be a possible target for toMorrow. Best to leave her alone.

Gil- This may end up being very dangerous, but I think he should be our kill. A lot of people are already assuming he's innocent, and it's possible he has a special role. But then again, I'm starting to think he might be the hunter, and if so I'm dead. Urgh...now I'm starting to change my mind on this because I worry it may be a trap.

Looks like I just eliminated everyone.

So, I'm actually coming up with a new theory. How about this:

Gil is a lover with the hunter. Gil is seen as innocent, so he attacks me openly, while his lover acts a little more unsure. Since a lot of people are disregarding Gil, it might actually be a trap so that we kill him, we kill the hunter, and I die.

Of everyone else, I would find Nogrod most likely to be that other lover. My reasons:

Day 1

-Nogrod finds Gil's behaviour to be odd, and his vote fishy, but he comes to the conclusion that Gil is just confused

Day 2

-Gil's little outburst on how he's not confused, and he wants people to stop saying that.
-Gil calls Nogrod's behaviour irrational
-Nogrod thinks Gil is innocent

Day 3

-no mention

----------

I'm probably just reading into this way too much as I said I shouldn't. I don't mind dying toMorrow; in fact, I expect it. But I really would rather not be hunted down...I want another chance to cause chaos. I'd even rather hit someone who's protected...at least we no longer have to worry about a seer exposing us.

I'm considering new possibilites:

1. Legate. We've considered him every Night so far. Perhaps we should just go for it and get it over with. Hopefully he's not the hunter, and if he is, I think I still have a 50/50 chance.

2. Gil. It seems really really dangerous, but sometimes we have to take risks...

3. Mith. I wanted to use her as a target and fear her death might incriminate me somehow (though perhaps at this point, anyone's will). But I could work around it.

4. Shasta. Still a possibility, but I'd rather not. I think keeping him alive will keep you safe.

Really, I need to stop with these lover theories...

Anyways, the truth is revealed. I didn't want to die at Night because I wanted to pretend to be lover the next Day. I knew I'd probably get lynched, and I just wanted to have fun.

Originally Posted by Naria

I would also like to get the Lovers. I was thinking that it could be maybe be Nog and Mith, but I'm not so sure now. They have been playing careful with eachother...just enough bantter to make it look unsuspicious. I really don't know at this point. Gil and Nog could be a possibility. Nog when just a plain 'ol ordo usually plays flippent and his posts aren't very good(to his standards). It is odd that he hasn't voted for Gil either.

We could go for Gil and I do think you could get out of any suspicion quite easily. The same would go for Shasta. I think.

I'm thinking that Legate might be just an ordo. I don't know if he'd be the Hunter. Maybe Nerwen? Giving the Hunter roll to a newbie is the perfect thing to do, IMO. Legate could be the Ranger...he has been very actively trying to push people and see their reactions.

Kath, I just don't know! I have never been able to pin down what she is in any game I've been in with her. Do you think that her and Nog could be Lovers? She's going full blast against him and he just gives little responses to her. Have either one of them voted for eachother yet?

Ack! I just don't know at this point. I'm going to skim some posts. I'll also go and see if Kath or Nog voted for one or the other yet.

Oh btw, nice job getting the Seer

Hmm, I just thought of something. In light of my blunder with the Nights, do you think one of us could go after Legate during toDay? I was thinking about doing it...mainly because he is an enigma and he quickly jumps on Nog's theory of both of them being dreamt of. And he has made some excuses for his posts before and at the end. I dunno, it might be a long shot. What do you think.

Naria had finally replied to me, but unfortunately, I overslept and woke up 45 minutes before the deadline.

Originally Posted by Brinn

So, you think Legate should be kept alive? I'm looking back at Mac's comments to us and am still worried he might be a hunter. Hmm...yeah, probably best to keep him alive.

And Gil, if you agree, then perhaps we should go for him. I just hope he's not a hunter or lovers with the hunter.

Strategy: Go ahead and suspect me if you like. Just do it in a fashion that won't put too much attention on you.

If you don't reply, I'll send the kill in five minutes. We're running out of time.

It really sucks to rush in picking your kill. I was already a half an hour late in submitting. Lesson: Don't oversleep...even if it is Sunday. Though once again, either one of those choices would've resulted badly.

Originally Posted by Naria

Let's go for it. Send in Gil's name.

I did, twenty minutes before deadline. Once again, very sorry Lommy.

Originally Posted by Brinn

God, my heart is pounding...I'm so scared I might die toNight and I'd at least like to be around toMorrow. But I decided the hunter could be anybody, and just about everyone will probably hunt me anyway.

I decided Legate will probably go back suspecting me after I think he misunderstood my last post. I wrote it, warning them if they didn't vote, they'll look suspicious for being indecisive. But I feel like he almost took it as a confession or threat. Mith is being very hypocritical after suspecting me for being indecisive Day 2, so I could criticise her for that. Hopefully my last comment won't be the ruin of me...I tend to screw things up like that.

In the most likely scenario, this is my last Night chatting with you. Let's hope I'm wrong. Anyways, I do wish you the very best of luck.

At that point, I started to figure myself doomed for the Night. It seemed no matter who I picked, it would be the wrong choice. And in this case it was...

So, that was my demise. When it comes to why Nogrod died, you'll have to ask Naria.

[Brinniel]

Okay, so my theories were wrong, but at least I got some things right.

Legate was protected Night 2.
There was a seer among Legate and Might.
Legate was a lover.
There was a hunter among Nogrod and Gil.

Lommy and Aganzir- Good work with the game. The narrations were very entertaining; I couldn't stop laughing on some of them.

Mac- Okay, so maybe third time is not a charm, considering we won the other times we were teamed together. But still, it was fun while it lasted. Sorry you weren't able to stick around past Day 2 and plot with Naria and me.

Naria- It's a shame we had some trouble getting in contact with one another, but still I had a lot of fun. This was my first time playing with you, so it was certainly a new experience for me. I hope you'll join another game in the future.

Congrats to the villagers, and the gifteds/lovers in particular for totally confusing me.

And for our newbies: You guys did really well for a first game here. I always find it interesting to work with new people and I hope you all will return for future games.

Okay, seeing that I've been in an airplane all morning and I'm completely sleep deprived, I'm (finally) going...

[Nerwen]

Thanks for a great game, everyone!

[Gil-Galad]

this has definately been one of my best games so far...

i am so glad that someone finnally said that i have always had the knack of pinning down wolves yet i always get ignored which help the wolves... i feel i've developed a way of playing that makes the wolves let me live for being a scapegoat but always not putting too much suspicion on me from the villagers.

personally i was surprised that Naria was the 3rd balrog, mainly because i read like nothing from her. my guess with Mith and Nerwen.

again good game and i'll say this... listen to me more often... third game in a row where i pinned 2 wolves into suspicion.

[Gil-Galad]

lets see here if i can remember my hunts

Night 1 - Nogrod

Night 2 - Brinniel

Night 3 - Mac(i think)

Night 4 - Brinniel

i'm sure those are right...

[Thinlómien]

Brinniel and you other balrogs, forgive me, but I really laughed at your speculations so much. Very funny PMs.

I must say this'd been a total chaos without Aganzir - I can't understand how some people manage a game without a co-mod! I mean, I was all the time calling her, sending her smses or talking with her in MSN: "can I do it this way?" can I say that?" Should I do this or that?" As important as her advices was her help in writing the narrations. Sometimes she wrote hardly anything, sometimes about half of the narration. Besides she did most of the crap job: finding quotes and writing the least interesting parts of narrations and she never complained and she kept coming up with great silly ideas and made sure I really used 90% of my silly ideas. Although, maybe at least half of the jokes in the narrations were some sort of inside jokes or only understandable for people who know certain things... like Glorfindel's battle song...

You all really played so well and I must say I was especially delighted to see so many (three!!!) very skillful new players. Cheers! Extra props to The Might and how handled the important role of the seer very well.

Also, I think this was one of the most even games in a while so congrats to balrogs. Lovers did remarkably well as well, since it's very difficult for them to actually win a game with any rules (especially if none of them can slaughter people at Night).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Gil-Galad

again good game and i'll say this... listen to me more often... third game in a row where i pinned 2 wolves into suspicion.

Aye, I'd say we should remember that. You did really great job!