Quote:
Originally Posted by Aganzir
I fail to see why.
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Because we are 9:5 now, and if we lynch an innocent today out of trust for
Nogrod (sure, it's possible we'll lynch a wolf too, but an innocent is more likely), and he kills a
Lommy tonight and is not killed himself, tomorrow we're left with 5:7 if
Lommy was not a wolf (and if she was not,
Nogrod is). We'll have to lynch a wolf then or lose (if
Lommy wasn't one - if she was, we'd be 4:8), and only when both
Nogrod and
Lommy are gone can we be certain we got one - IF we trust Nogrod.
I'm sorry I didn't have time to do the analysis I would have liked, but in light of
Lommy's words it's not relevant at the moment anyway. Here are the options, as I see them:
Nogrod is a wolf,
Lommy is a seer, and we lynch
Nogrod toDay:
We're rid of a wolf and a seer may live to dream another night. The fact that there is no other death will prove
Nogrod was lying.
Nogrod is a wolf,
Lommy is a seer, and we don't lynch
Nogrod toDay:
Good chance of lynching an innocent toDay, toMorrow our seer is dead, but we don't even know this for certain, and
Nog-wolf may survive (judging from
Aganzir's words, may very likely survive.)
Nogrod is a hunter,
Lommy is a wolf, and we lynch
Nogrod toDay:
Both will die, and we will know both roles by this fact.
Nogrod is a hunter,
Lommy is a wolf, and we don't lynch
Nogrod toDay:
Lommy dies toNight,
Nogrod may or may not, and we're none the wiser if he doesn't.
It's the only way we're certain to both catch a wolf and
know it:
++Nogrod