To follow on from what Boro said, the
McCaber kill tells us a lot about the wolves, although
Cabbie himself said very little.
Why get rid of
Cabbie when he's (as of yet) not posing a threat to you? There's no ranger in your way, why not go for a loud, very experienced player (which isn't to say that
Cabbie is a newbie, because he's not) and get one of the big threats out of the way.
For instance, the way I play. (Like I should be telling you all this, but I'm trying to prove a point.)
When I'm seer, my first night dream is ALWAYS someone I know I can rely on to make a lot of trouble. Well, not so much trouble as noise I suppose. That way I already know where they're coming from and can gauge other's reactions from theirs. Either that or someone I thoroughly enjoy playing with, and then I pretty much hope they're innocent so I don't have to kill them.
(For instance, the game where I was a seer on here my first dream was
Nog.)
When I'm a wolf, and there's a ranger, my first night kill is either a person whom I see as a threat just because of who they are, a person whom I don't like playing with as much as the others (don't take offense at that, any of my/our past kills from other games. I rarely use that as a kill pick method) or for who I think the seer might be (if it doesn't seem too obvious, as in they're leaving fairly big seer hints and I think they'll be protected). Granted, last game I didn't follow that pattern, but if I recall properly
Gollum really wanted
Legate dead. Moving on....if there's no ranger I go for the seer the first night. Period.
Can I use old games as evidence? I really don't think so, but my argument will make more sense if I mention this. One game I was an ordo and
Nerwen was a wolf (I can't remember who her packmates were and it's pretty much irrelevant). I died the first night. That's right,
Sally died the first night. Random kill much, children? (Also, you don't kill
Sally the first night. You just don't. You keep me around to lynch, dang it!
)
Sorry, I digress again. Anyway, I believe it was early in the second Day that
Nerwen mentioned something about the ranger. There is no ranger in this game. Now she may have been kidding around, but my theory?
You don't kill someone like
Cabbie the first night unless you're playing a risky game. You go for the seer unless there's a ranger, and even then you try. So if you think there's a ranger and you're the kind of player who likes to kill off semi-random people, who would you go for? Someone like
Cabbie. And who would do that? Someone like
Nerwen.
I just woke up. Does this make any sense?
EDIT: x'd with some little green girl.