[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by McCaber

All right, all right. I'll get up. You topsiders have no consideration for some people's schedules.

So my thoughts on the day this far: Dang, there are a lot of people. It's going to be touch and go for a while, what with these two kills a night business. But hopefully we can pull off a protect choice that limits the wolves.

Although we shouldn't be hasty to lynch someone we protected if there's only one kill. That seems to be a very easy way for the pack to manipulate the village. Granted, it would only work one time at most, but it could still backfire horribly.

Says the game may start out rough, but hopes we can limit kill numbers early on.

Then he says that if we protect someone and there's only one kill we shouldn't be overeager and lynch them right away (also known as the Silly Sally plan of now Fail). Says it's too easy for the pack to mess with our minds in this way (which did in fact happen) and that while it could work to our advantage it's a risk.

Nothing really to say here, but I wanted to point the second bit out because it comes into play later.

Originally Posted by McCaber

The miner's pretty sure who they're going to vote tonight, but I'm still not sure on who to protect.

So, just to get a viewpoint of suspicion across,

++wilwa

for silly discussion on the previous pages that could have an adverse effect to the village's safety.

It's Day One. Most of the discussion is silly. Although I think he's referring to Mnemo's proposed plan, which is why he says 'adverse effect'.

Also, the 'they're' looks weird to me. Don't know why, besides the obvious, which is....well, too obvious. Blah. Probably just a silly Cabbie thing.


DAY TWO

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

So before he said that we shouldn't use the protections to determine our lynches, but now he thinks a Legate lynch is acceptable. This just seems too slick for me, especially with the 'but I'll see how the Day goes and then decide which side to take' at the end. I don't like it.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm back. And toDay has certainly been more interesting than I originally wanted. We have Legate arguing his innocence, and ... just about everyone but Legate wanting to lynch him.

Right now I'm not prepared to argue either way, but I'll stay connected and think about what this shows about the "everyone but Legate" crowd.

So he just sums up what's going on and says he can't make up his mind. Erm, k.

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I am forced away beyond my control. A hurried vote to guard

++ Nogrod

mostly because he's been making a lot of sense, and I'd rather see him alive.

I cannot in good conscience vote Legate after I made a point yesterDay on what to do in this exact circumstance. So this right now is more of a look of suspicion than anything else:

++ Inziladun

Finally seems to make up his mind, and it appears an attempt to cover his earlier statement. Seems to me that he's saying "go ahead and lynch Legate, but I can't be involved because otherwise I'll contradict myself and look bad".

Also, I noted this before, although only briefly. This would be a really good move for a packmate of Dun, and here's why. Legate's pretty much screwed, so voting Dun isn't a dangerous move. Also, if/when Dun was lynched and proven guilty, Cabbie could pull a "I told you so" and look more innocent for making a case for Dun before most other people. So basically this jumps him up on my wolf radar, a lot.

(By extreme extension this leads me to believe the Wilwa and Cabbie will not be in a pack together. He voted to kill her on Day One when it was still possible she'd be lynched, so while it's possible I don't think it's the case.)


DAY THREE

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, all that I can say is that I was right. The guarding was an extremely easy tactic for the wolves to manipulate. In fact, I would not be surprised if the Legate lynch was largely driven by the wolves to see how much they could get away with.

Considering how wide the margin was in favor of Legate, I can even see all four wolves voting him. I mean, Nilp and I were the only ones who didn't, and I'm having a hard time seeing a wolf in him.

Erm....okay, nice of you to confess there, friend. Mind telling us who your other two packmates are then? That'd be ever so helpful of you!

Originally Posted by McCaber

Well, I'm here, but I don't know for how long. Man, this is just not working with my schedule so far.

I am glad that Nogrod seems innocent, and no one is considering lynching him just because of the one kill. One thing that comes to mind is that the pack must want to draw the game out, rather than use the two kills to achieve a faster victory. Maybe it speaks of (over)confident wolves, or maybe of submarines who blend into the background.

And I will say that I still think The Plan was a bad idea. A revealed Seer is vulnerable, and we would have no real way of testing the veracity of such a claim.

EDIT: crossed with Brinn

I don't think there's much in this, other than more logicless logic and useless points. (E.g. his commentary on the plan, which has been extinct for like two Days now.) Mentions Nog, but I'm not getting a feeling about it one way or another so meh.


DAY FOUR

Originally Posted by McCaber

About the one kill: our mod said yesterDay that the wolves would only get one night kill on top of alona. Since we lynched Inzil, presumably that means that the wolves only got one kill total, which they then used on alona instead of who they really wanted.

This....makes no sense to me. They knew Alona was getting modfired so why kill her? There's no reason (especially now) for them to lose the kill just because of this. (I know this has been mentioned somewhere else so I'm going to read through this section of the thread again, but I make this statement from a strategy standpoint, not a 'somehow they weren't allowed a kill' standpoint.) If nothing else it looks plain weird.

Originally Posted by McCaber

So it seems that the modfire+no kill was a one-time thing. Ah well.

Hakon is doing his level best to appear suspicious, while Pitchwife is doing the exact opposite. He's taking actions which look suspicious, but he explains himself well and seems genuine. I know, a rather simple analysis, but it works for me.

I am wary of joining the Hakon wagon, just because his actions scream "cobbler" or "confused" much more than wolf. Although, a wolf hiding in plain sight like that is possible, it's just not the read I'm getting.

And again, he's making judgements and then saying "but I could be wrong, so I best not say anything". Could be an attempt to distance himself from a packmate Pitchie/Hakon while not appearing to support them completely, but I'm not sure.


Overall Cabbie seems very off to me, from his voting to just some of the statements he makes. I'm definitely seeing him as a top suspect.