Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[McCaber]

Well so far I don't have any more brilliant insights. Although for what it's worth I think we have time for a Legate lynch toDay, and be ready to sort things out later.

But much of my thought process is pending on what happens toDay yet.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I have just skimmed throught toDay as I don't have that much time, just a few notes.

First, of course the Wolves are framing us, and I would apply on the village to say that lynching me would really be stupid. If that goes on, you can always lynch me later (at most when you don't have any other people and it's some Day Fifty), but this frame-up is so transparent once it's been done. Look at it from the Wolves' point of view, if they had the incredible luck of getting rid of a Seer, and they can still have two kills per every Night, I don't see that it would be too much of a pain for them to leave out one kill. (And especially if they can easily lynch one innocent on this Day by accusing him like this.)

Right now I have a very bad feeling about wilwa, partially also about sally and also about Hakon, who just pops out and says to lynch me yesterday, and then pops out and says today:

Either my gut feeling about Legate being a wolf was right or the wolves are trying to trick us. I hope it is that Legate is just a wolf.

Which just stinks.

Okay, had to go now, will be back later during the Day. You can line up with questions on me meanwhile, if you have any, but it'll be in some eight hours from now at first when I can answer.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate (can they even do that? Mod?) in my opinion.

Also, when did we start not having Seers?

...what do you mean there's been one in every game? I don't recall the last time -

...what do you mean they consistently die off Day/Night One? Surely the village wouldn't be so silly!

...what do you mean, "go back and look"?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

can they even do that? Mod?

Yes. if they wish to, they can only kill one person at Night.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

(Erm, anyhoo, does anyone know if the tie-breaking mechanism here is random or not?)

And yes again. If there is a tie in votes for lynching, the person to die will be selected randomly.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Lynch tally with preliminary Kitanna-lysis

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

+3:29 Nilp – Nilp (Nilp – 1)
+18:19 Mnemo – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1)
+18:50 Brinn – McCaber (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1)
+20:22 Nerwen – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1)
+21:53 Shasta – Lommy (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1)
+22:09 Kitanna – Brinn (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 1, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)
+22:32 Boro – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 2, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)

Tie breaker! Boro needs closer inspection, but for the moment I consider him an 'I dunno what he is.'

+22:50 Zil – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1)

Worrying bandwaggon-style vote.

+23:00 Greenie – Nogrod (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 1, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:12 McCaber – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1)
+23:43 Hakon – Legate (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 3, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:55 Pitchie – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 2, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)

Pitchie has been much helpful during the DAY's discussion; therefore I am inclined to think him 'clueless' innocent.

+23:57 Legate – wilwa (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1)
+23:57 Nienna – Zil (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 4, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)
+23:59 wilwa – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1)

wilwa was in second place for most of the last hour. She said that her vote was to try to save herself. If she is a Wolf I would look more closely at Lommy and Sally (see below).

-0:00 Nogrod – Greenie (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 5, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

Not a Kitanna vote, but . . . Throwaway much? Last-minute Wolf-on-Wolf? (If I remember right it's also somewhat standard Nog to vote 'with principles.') An innocentish 'I don't know what he is', due to some good stuff said during the DAY.

-0:00 Lommy – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 6, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)
-0:00 Sally – Kitanna (Nilp – 1, wilwa – 3, McCaber – 1, Kitanna – 7, Lommy – 1, Brinn – 1, Nogrod – 1, Legate – 1, Zil – 1, Greenie – 1)

Doom, gloom, boom. The two lasses created a huge gap between wilwa and Kitanna during the very last minute, so . . . see above.

No vote: alonariel, Nessa

Lunch, Guard vote list, and more analysis. In that order.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Guard tally with preliminary analysis.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

. . .

. . .

. . .

I've decided not to run with it. You know why?

When we analyse the lynch vote we know at the end we'll get the identity of the 'winner', from which we can deduce intentions of those who cast votes for that person or the runner/s-up. In this case, however, we can't say for certain if the 'winner' is innocent or guilty, except if the Wolves do a double-kill (which they didn't!) Despite heavy prejudice for Legate's guilt, we still can't say that for certain.

However, the tally will become more useful once we get a Werewolf, since it's an additional form of interaction, from which we can deduce intentions. But that means first we have to get a Werewolf. Which the Guard tally will not help me with.

(Erm, anyhoo, does anyone know if the tie-breaking mechanism here is random or not?)

Postpartum possums. One gem from the Guard tally muck: I think Hakon is innocent.

[wilwarin538]

Here and reading.

[Nerwen]

Back. Reading.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.

Hmm?? Don't see the connection.


So I still think that there is no way the wolves would have given up that extra kill. Yes it messes with our heads, which I'm sure they enjoy, but it doesn't really benefit them in a solid way. So they want Legate dead? Well they could have just killed him toNight, they wouldn't of had to set him up for us to kill him. They could have gotten two innocents last Night, plus (statistically) we probably would have lynched another innocent toDay. It's so early in the game, and they are but 4 people hidden among 18 that there is no way they were soooo scared of getting lynched that they resorted to setting him up. I'm not at all convinced of that. They're ability to kill 2 at Night will only last for so long, since we will eventually get a wolf, and they know this. They wouldn't have given that up purely just to confuse us...we usually confuse ourselves fairly easily on our own nyway.

Now, let's say I'm totally wrong and Legate is innocent. We'll still be further ahead. If they had done their 2 kills last Night and we instead lynched someone else toDay (who could have aswell been innocent), then we would have been down 3 innocents. But this way, we'll only be down 2. Or, he'll be a wolf, which is my guess. Really we are either gaining, or losing only a bit less then we could have lost if there had been a second night kill. Not really a win-win situtation, but it's definitely not a lose-lose.

[wilwarin538]

Suspicious
Legate: I suppose suspicious is technically the wrong word for him, it's more that he is a logical choice and that his death could answer some questions and clear up a few things (hopefully)
McCaber: mainly cause his vote yesterday bugged me, I wouldn't vote for him purely on this, I'm just keeping an eye out for him
Zil: his vote, and over all badness vibe coming from him, again will keep an eye out, and will concentrate a bit more on him tomorrow if I'm around

Innocentish, for now
Boro: seems honest and logical, haven't seen anything that I don't like, might vote to guard him
Nerwen: nothing bad standing out for me here, she seems very logical, might guard her
Nienna: really liking
Nogrod: will probably vote to guard him
Sally: seems goodish, not crazy confident about her, but I'm leaning more innocent
Shasta: seems good
Brinn: very comfortable with her

Unsure, for now anyway
Greenie: under the reindeer, atleast under mine, not sure why cause she has posted a lot, but I just don't feel anything either way
Alona: no posts yet
Hakon: nothing but "gut feelings" from him, so really there's not much to say, but he's probably innocent
Nessa: nothing from her yet
Nilp: always confuses me, hard to get a solid feeling either way from him
Pitch: I was fairly confident of him, but now it's more of an unsure feeling

I'm gonna vote for

++Legate

now, since I really don't see me changing my mind on that, even if I'm starting to get a bit uneasy about this, it still just seems the most logical choice. Will wait to cast my guard vote though for a bit.

Xposted with Legate

[Brinniel]

Yeesh, twice now I have left Day One early only to return to find the seer dead. Surely we learned after last game...but no? Looking back at yesterDay, that Kitanna bandwagon seems off. I actually can't really see why she looked so suspicious. Those who participated in the bandwagon deserve a closer look. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one or maybe two wolves were involved.

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

Btw, did Nessa or alona show up at all yesterDay? I see they didn't vote, but I can't recall whether they even posted or not. Also, any reason why you didn't vote to guard someone, McCaber and Nilp?

I would take a look at the Kit bandwagon now, but it's late and I need to go to bed shortly. If no one has done it yet, perhaps I'll do it tomorrow if I have time.

EDIT: X-ed with Shasta and Nilp (who already seems to be doing a Kit analysis)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Because I didn't see anyone I'd like to keep alive.

I'm killing myself, why should y'all be protected?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate (can they even do that? Mod?) in my opinion.

Also, when did we start not having Seers?

...what do you mean there's been one in every game? I don't recall the last time -

...what do you mean they consistently die off Day/Night One? Surely the village wouldn't be so silly!

...what do you mean, "go back and look"?

I love you. That is all.



So I thought I'd have more time to work on Werewolf tonight but I've gotten some unexpected stuff to do and I'm really rather tired. I'll be back tomorrow and will be around a lot more a couple hours before deadline.

[Pitchwife]

*shows up with his head heavily bandaged after a night of banging head against the wall*
Dang! Dang! It's happened again! Why didn't I heed my cousin's warnings? He told me the Seer might look wolfish at times... Now we know why Kit was jittery about The Plan, but it's too late. We should have known better.
About my Guard vote for Boro - he was on my shortlist for Guarding all the time from my #107 yesterday, I just had to pick one of them, and he seemed as good as any. As for Legate, his comeback post yesterDay soothed some of my doubts about him, so I didn't find it quite as urgent to Guard against him as a wolf. Nevertheless, I'm glad he got the majority, as the outcome is certainly interesting. But right now, I'm too confused to think straight about it.
I think I'll have to see Shasta for some Middle-earth equivalent to paracetamol. A few hours of quiet work will do me good, too. Any suggestions as to the epitaph for Kit's tombstone?
See you all later.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Vote time, I guess. My brother wants the comp soon.

It's either wilwa (to trace a connexion to Sally or Lommy) or Inziladun (possible Kitanna bandwaggon starter) for me. But since wilwa is speaking more sense:

++Inziladun

And:

++wilwarin538.

I hope to be back in a few hours, but don't count on it. *mutters rebelliously about 6am DAY deadlines*

[Thinlómien]

Just a quick comment right now - I can't see what the wolves would have gained by intentionally leaving out the kill and framing Legate. Made sure an innocent is lynched on Day2, sure, but why not kill an innocent during the Night and try to get another innocent lynched the next Day? Why would they not maximise the destruction?

Okay, I can see two options, neither of them being very probable:
1) they want Legate especially killed. Since they can't suspect him of seerdom, I can't see a reason why would they want him dead so badly that they would leave out a kill because of that.
2) they are messing with our heads on purpose (I have a theory about this, but I'm not sure if it makes sense, so I won't post it until later if I find out it makes sense - I would need to think about it but I won't have the time or the enthusiasm right now).

So, it would be the most logical option that Legate's a wolf. And to me, his post from toDay does look like that a bit - I think an innocent would react differently, he's too calm and calculated and nice. But I will refrain from giving final judgement until he comes back, but right now I consider him guilty until proven innocent.

Now, off to comment on stuff.