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Old 04-12-2010, 07:21 AM   #486
Nogrod
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(~~~) *grin appearing*

The Glirdy-wagon sure was an interesting one. So were the wolves trying to save Sally or are the wolves having a nightmarish start to the game?

Let's take a look at yesterDay's voting. Here's the thing (Sally-voters are italicized, those we need not think of are underlined and the rest are bolded to make the list more readable).

Morsul -> Sally
Nerwen -> Sally2
Lommy -> Glirdy
(Agan actually voted for Inzil here)
Greenie -> Shasta
Legate -> Sally3
winty -> Sally4

Shasta -> Morsul
Mira -> Winty

Lottie -> Glirdy2
Agan -> Inzil
Nog -> Sally5
Brinn -> Sally6

Skip -> Glirdy3
Glirdy -> Sally7
Inzil -> Glirdy4
Izzy -> Glirdy5
Nienna -> Sally8
Sally -> Glirdy6

We can look at this list first from two perspectives; assuming that Glirdy a wolf and assuming him innocent.

If Glirdy is a wolf the reading of the list is pretty hard as the wolves could possibly hide anywhere. If Glirdy is innocent, then the Glirdy-voters sure merit a closer look.

The Glirdy voters then are Lommy, Skip and Inzil.

If Glirdy is a wolf then Lommy looks good (it would be foolish to another mate the second one getting votes when one is already gathering the votes), if Glirdy is innocent Lommy looks actually pretty bad (trying to open another lynching route with picking up an easyish lynch-candidate).

Skip's vote is harder to pin down but the same basic logic applies, even if only in relative turns. Surely if Glirdy is innocent, his vote with the vagueish to and fro with Sally would look quite evil indeed (as it could be seen as a try to build up a wagon for Glirdy, even if quite desperate one), but if Glirdy is a wolf, then it's harder to say (why to press another mate forwards at that point - well that wouldn't be totally unbelievable but actually quite smart?).

With Inzil it's again a bit different. First of all it must be noted that Inzil votes in a situation where one could actually count the votes to come and see the possibility of Glirdan being actually lynched over Sally. So in case of Glirdy being innocent I'd think that vote especially incriminating for Zil. But it would be quite a nice move also in the case Glirdy is a wolf as at that point he could also speculate with the slimness of the chances of getting Glirdy lynched and thus look better later as an independent thinker who gets it right.

Some of them probably just plain thought Glirdy looked more suspicious than Sally for I do not believe these three are our three wolves left. That would be a bit too daring indeed. Although, if Glirdy turns up innocent then even that should be considered.

I'll come back with those who decided to choose differently (not voting Sally or Glirdy) & Sally-voters in a moment.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*
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