WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

The Glirdy-wagon sure was an interesting one. So were the wolves trying to save Sally or are the wolves having a nightmarish start to the game?

Let's take a look at yesterDay's voting. Here's the thing (Sally-voters are italicized, those we need not think of are underlined and the rest are bolded to make the list more readable).

Morsul -> Sally
Nerwen -> Sally2
Lommy -> Glirdy
(Agan actually voted for Inzil here)
Greenie -> Shasta
Legate -> Sally3
winty -> Sally4
Shasta -> Morsul
Mira -> Winty
Lottie -> Glirdy2
Agan -> Inzil
Nog -> Sally5
Brinn -> Sally6
Skip -> Glirdy3
Glirdy -> Sally7
Inzil -> Glirdy4
Izzy -> Glirdy5
Nienna -> Sally8
Sally -> Glirdy6

We can look at this list first from two perspectives; assuming that Glirdy a wolf and assuming him innocent.

If Glirdy is a wolf the reading of the list is pretty hard as the wolves could possibly hide anywhere. If Glirdy is innocent, then the Glirdy-voters sure merit a closer look.

The Glirdy voters then are Lommy, Skip and Inzil.

If Glirdy is a wolf then Lommy looks good (it would be foolish to another mate the second one getting votes when one is already gathering the votes), if Glirdy is innocent Lommy looks actually pretty bad (trying to open another lynching route with picking up an easyish lynch-candidate).

Skip's vote is harder to pin down but the same basic logic applies, even if only in relative turns. Surely if Glirdy is innocent, his vote with the vagueish to and fro with Sally would look quite evil indeed (as it could be seen as a try to build up a wagon for Glirdy, even if quite desperate one), but if Glirdy is a wolf, then it's harder to say (why to press another mate forwards at that point - well that wouldn't be totally unbelievable but actually quite smart?).

With Inzil it's again a bit different. First of all it must be noted that Inzil votes in a situation where one could actually count the votes to come and see the possibility of Glirdan being actually lynched over Sally. So in case of Glirdy being innocent I'd think that vote especially incriminating for Zil. But it would be quite a nice move also in the case Glirdy is a wolf as at that point he could also speculate with the slimness of the chances of getting Glirdy lynched and thus look better later as an independent thinker who gets it right.

Some of them probably just plain thought Glirdy looked more suspicious than Sally for I do not believe these three are our three wolves left. That would be a bit too daring indeed. Although, if Glirdy turns up innocent then even that should be considered.

I'll come back with those who decided to choose differently (not voting Sally or Glirdy) & Sally-voters in a moment.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

That, I think, is a very dangerous path to take (wow, doesn't that sound epic!) because knowing that Lottie has our best interests at heart isn't saying anything about how accurate her suspicions are. Throughout WW history there have been innocents who bark at the wrong tree for an entire game though they have the village's best interests at heart.

The advantage of listening to Lottie is that at least I can be relatively certain she's not trying to mislead me. I already took issue with the fact that she apparently trusts Mira, who I think looks fairly evil.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I don't like this one, either. A wolf can very well make great contributions - a Nerwolf certainly can - and off-handedly dismissing the possibility makes it seem like you are grasping at straws to suspect whoever it was who talked about the great contributions. (I've lost the spot where I found this quote, should check that, probably...)

Speaking of grasping at straws....
When you say one makes 'great contributions', I take that to mean you approve of the things they've said. That's why I thought Glirdan was being contradictory there.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But even an innocent Zil, in my opinion, would have at least more reservations about thinking Glirdy innocent on sally's comment - I mean, Zil has played dozens of games already, and he obviously should know that such random comments thrown by Wolves especially in such a situation can mean anything, or nothing, and they can be bluffs, double-bluffs, triple-bluffs or who knows what. So this very simple reasoning... there is just something wrong with it. But the problem is that it's just clumsy, which does not speak as itself for his guilt or innocence - the possibility of him being a Wolf and "misexpecting" the village's reaction, however, sounds at least a bit more probable and makes a bit more sense (but still it's just weird).

Incredible as it may seem, no: wolf-on-wolf was not my first thought there. Why not? Probably because what Sally did would not have occurred to me, had I been in her position.
And for the record, this is game # 13 for me.

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Originally Posted by my inscrutable and idiosyncratic self

(it would be foolish to another mate the second one getting votes when one is already gathering the votes)

Oh my. That sentence doesn't make any sense whatsoever...

What I tried to say is this: it would be foolish for a wolf to vote for fellow B, making him the second overall candidate to get votes, when fellow A has already two votes. So there would be two wolves having votes and none other...

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Well then those who walked their own paths (more epic-style to our thread ).

Greenie -> Shasta
Agan -> Inzil
The vote-count at that point was (also when Agan actually voted):
Sally2
Glirdy1
It wouldn't be the most effective way to help Sally but as the vote was made relatively early it might have been somewhat good idea for a fellow wolf putting another "easyish" voting candidate into the list (increasing the chances that someone else will get the noose eventually), and if Glirdy is a wolf, then her choice of adding a new candidate would be obvious.

Shasta -> Morsul
The vote-count at that point was:
Sally4
Glirdy1
Shasta1
Sally was clearly taking the heat there so just to defend her Shasta's move isn't the best one to help out a fellow, but seeing that he himself had a vote as well it could be possible Shasta-wolf decided to bring forwards a new candidate - not to talk of the possibility only wolves had gathered votes at that point of the Day!

Mira -> Winty
The vote-count at that point was:
Sally4
Glirdy1
Shasta1
Morsul1
Now this is an interesting choice. One more "easy lynch" candidate thrown into the lot. There were a host of votes to come as it was relatively early so why not put all the baits in there so that someone would pass Sally? And many had suspected winty, so maybe the "benefit of doubt" would have worn away? Or were there too many mates in the fray at that point that she really needed to add a new one?


The thing that bothers me with basically everyone here is that they more or less bring forwards the so called "easy lynches". Obviously they all four can't be wolves and thus some of their suspicions must be honest and innocent. But I'd bet a lot for there being a wolf in this group - like in the group of Glirdy-voters.

The rest coming soon.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Sally-lynchers then...

Morsul -> Sally
Nerwen -> Sally2

Morsul looks so darn suspicious everytime he plays but it would be quite daring for him to start voting against a mate who clearly was facing some real pressure that Day. And actually, if Glirdan is a wolf then the same applies for toDay. Could it be a done deal? Risky, but possibly paying back in the endgame?

Nerwen I think quite good of as adding the lead of a packmate at that situation would hve been both bold and possibly quite counter-productive. Or did they think Sally was a goner already during the Night?

Legate -> Sally3
winty -> Sally4

These two votes I think talk rather good of their makers as one looks at the placing of them. They clearly made Sally the real candidate number one. If one of them were a wolf they'd surely have reasons coming for another candidates? So voting Sally at that point would have been unnecessary.

Nog -> Sally5
Brinn -> Sally6

More or less the same as with Legate & winty. The difference being that there was then clearly a chance of a second candidate with Glirdy. I suspected Sally more than Glirdy, Brinn didn't mention Glirdy at all.

Glirdy -> Sally7

Self-preservation, whatever his role is.

Nienna -> Sally8

The decisive vote.


Blah... have no time to continue as I have to run to a meeting. See you later...

(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Brinniel]

Looking at the voting list, Mira's vote looks quite bad not only because of the nature of the vote that I mentioned yesterDay I didn't like, but the timing too (Sally was really racking up in votes by then). Actually, Shasta looks just as bad for the timing of his vote, but I can't remember his reasons behind the vote, so I should perhaps check that out later. In any case, they both warrant a reason for me to better look at them come toMorrow.

But I must be going now, so here's my vote:

++Glirdan

I hate making early votes and I still wish I could've actually heard what he may have to say before making this vote, but I won't be back toDay most likely.

His role could go either way, and knowing what it is would clear up some things. Even if he did turn out innocent, his death wouldn't exactly be a devastating blow to the village considering we are ahead in the game lynching a wolf and cobbler in two Days...and not to mention that his death could provide useful clues, whatever his role may be. If we don't lynch him toDay, we'll just be wondering the same things about him come toMorrow. So at this point, unless a more suspicious candidate comes forth, he seems the best choice for toDay.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Here and reading, with comments to make (especially about my exhausted post from earlier this morning. )

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Morsul

I know this will be an unpopular move however I'm going with my gut on this one.

++Glirdan

It got me one wolf so maybe It'll get me another.

Morsul, I don't particularly care who you vote, but voting this early is harmful to the innocents as a whole (and it's lost you a game before, remember?) You might think about that.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Hmm...this is something to think about. It seems quite possible Glirdan is indeed a wolf, but it's definitely something we can't be certain of.

This quote seems awfully wishy-washy... I generally think Brinn to be more decisive than this.


Okay, after reading through as my much-less-tired self, I still don't like the way Greenie quoted Inzil out-of-context. It seems to me fairly obvious that Inzil thought Glirdan was being contradictory in his post about Nerwen, which is a fair reason for suspicion, so I don't see where the "grasping at straws" fits in. Especially as Inzil looked to be under a bit of suspicion yesterday.


Speaking of throwaway votes (Lommy's #477 talking about Mira is what reminded me) I still don't like Morsul's vote yesterday. It feels like he's established "vote early and be suspicious at all times" as his own playstyle, but at the same time right now it feels like he's hiding behind it a bit.

Originally Posted by Greenie

Makes me feel a bit better about Nienna. If I recall correctly, this was in a post of its own – and though not unheard of, bringing up a new point against a fellow in a one-liner post doesn't strike me as wolf-on-wolf suspicion.

This is a game of werewolves. Werewolves lie. A wolf shouldn't have a problem with saying "No, I'm not a wolf" when people say "Hey, you're a wolf". Plus, historically, people who have responded to "Hey I'm a wolf" with "No I'm not what are you talking about" have sometimes been considered "overdefensive".

TLDR; Nienna looks slightly worse to me for this comment and Greenie looks worse for saying it makes Nienna look better.

Originally Posted by Nogrod, on Mira's vote for Winty

Now this is an interesting choice. One more "easy lynch" candidate thrown into the lot.

Right, I'm going to take issue with people continuing to call winty an "easy lynch". Firstly, since when is a newbie an "easy lynch"? People are going to look askance at anyone who tries to lynch a newbie early. (That's just how we roll, we're nice like that. ) Secondly, any actual suspicion of winty has been intermittent at best, with plenty of better candidates for lynching. Again, not seeing how that makes winty an "easy lynch". I'm beginning to wonder if saying that isn't just an excuse to suspect whoever votes winty.