[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here I am, I'll just post swiftly remarks to what's been said on the thread, and later maybe something more constructive...

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree with this scenario - Sally's done the exact same thing before, and anyone who'd seen her do that (including, if I remember correctly, Nessa as well as the usual lot) would recognize that as a genuine offer. So the wolves, not wanting to hit a Gifted, go for the all but confirmed ordo.

Okay, point taken. Well I was counting on the idea of the WWs trying to get the Seer (as that's the one they'd want to get in any case, I believe, Heir or no Heir, it can be dangerous for them): that was a hypothesis I was verifying. The explanation that they just wanted the situation to keep as it is makes a lot of sense, although that means the pack is not very bold, but tries to sort of make the waters still and wait for us to make the first slip. Or, they could be just sportish and merely accepted sally's offer to be lynched for their own (which I find plausible).

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Should we just accept that we have to hunt wolves or should we perhaps think about lynching our Hunter today? It guarantees that the Heir becomes another Hunter, and it takes a shot at killing someone else at the same time. Could be a wolf, could not; but it's the same chance as getting a wolf as our lynching would be, and it gets us the Heir as guaranteed.

Just thinking out loud here; please judge the idea critically.

To dangerous place, this will take us, but of course we cannot prolongate this Heir-stalemate forever. A Hunter killed at Night would be far more benefitial for us, though of course, we are not the masters of the fate in this. I have to think about this...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lynching the ranger does the "compensation" (that we get the heir: the role of the gifted we lynch stays in the game) as well without the risk of losing two innocents.

Well what, in such case, would prevent a Wolf from coming to you and saying: "Hi, I'm the Ranger?"

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Like Inzil said, killing the Hunter has the advantage that we can actually tell what role the Heir assumes. If we go with your plan and lynch the Ranger, there's always the possibility we lynch a false Ranger instead and would never be any the wiser. (Though how probable is it that the wolves want to take the risk and have one of them fake-reveal?

Not any less, I'm afraid - if there was ever a game suitable for fake revealing, I guess this is it...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

We will not be any wiser whomever we lynch if that person has a role, but the hunter of course. But lynching the hunter on D2 gives a great probability of losing another innocent - or even a gifted. The hunter would have a 30% chance of getting a wolf against 60% (70%) to kill an innocent, to be exact.

Quoting Han Solo, "Never tell me the odds!" Honestly, I don't see so much in statistics, simply because real life (and WW too) does not really operate like that. Okay, of course in some basic way, but for this case, I think the difference does not really make a difference (? interesting). But anyway, the fact is that there is the risk of the Hunter killing somebody during the Day, the question is not "how many percent" but more like "is it worth it?"

EDIT: x-ed with some Greenie, her vote, few Nogrods, Eomer and such...