WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Like Inzil said, killing the Hunter has the advantage that we can actually tell what role the Heir assumes. If we go with your plan and lynch the Ranger, there's always the possibility we lynch a false Ranger instead and would never be any the wiser. (Though how probable is it that the wolves want to take the risk and have one of them fake-reveal?)

We will not be any wiser whomever we lynch if that person has a role, but the hunter of course. But lynching the hunter on D2 gives a great probability of losing another innocent - or even a gifted. The hunter would have a 30% chance of getting a wolf against 60% (70%) to kill an innocent, to be exact. That's hardly worth the risk. If we're in this situation tomorrow (meaning only innocents have been killed) I'd reconsider my stance as the odds of getting a wolf (and the desperation of getting rid of this "hanging situation") would be bigger then.

But actually, you bring out a hair-rising prospect: if I was a wolf I'd be more than happy to sacrifice myself. That would guarantee the heir takes the wolves' side and the murky new wolf would be just an ace to their game - not forgetting that we'd be still in darkness about whether I was a gifted or a wolf so nothing conclusive could be said about my interactions with others... So I mean, if they want to do that, they can do it.

In any case, leaving the Hunter to the wolves would include an assumption that the wolves hit the exact one person they want to avoid of the ten-ish possibilities.

That's a chance among others. I'm not claiming it would be an obvious or probable choice - but it would be a much more preferable way for the hunter to go than going by lynching.

A wolf would really object to lynching the Hunter, if only deep inside his furry self. A bold wolf would say it aloud and hope to turn the village around.

Here I do disagree. If I was a wolf I'd love the scenario where the innocents would take a 2/3 chance to kill an additional innocent. I'd understand wolves being afraid of killing the hunter on D4 (if there was this situation then aka. the heir wouldn't have yet been picked).

EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

Here I do disagree. If I was a wolf I'd love the scenario where the innocents would take a 2/3 chance to kill an additional innocent. I'd understand wolves being afraid of killing the hunter on D4 (if there was this situation then aka. the heir wouldn't have yet been picked).

The way I look at it, fear of the Hunter successfully picking a wolf when lynched is only a part of why the wolves would want to avoid us lynching the Hunter. The bigger part, I think, is that they a) lose the possibility of getting the Heir on their side, and b) lose the advantage of the current situation where they are pretty much safe since we don't really dare to go for them and if we do they gain a new fellow anyway. Not to mention all the distraction and confusion the entire Heir-business is causing.. So yes, the wolves definitely have a reason not to like this plan.

[A Little Green]

On another note - I want to go to sleep like about now. If the Hunter is around and wants to come out, I'd prefer it if s/he did it really really soon. Otherwise I'll just vote somebody I either find suspicious - at this point the ones I have something on are Lommy and Nog (yay for a happy family! ) though they both are productive and I'd feel more like going after a submarine - or a possible Hunter (which would be weird).


EDIT: x-ed with Nog

[A Little Green]

Nog is a bal-rog.

On a slightly more serious note, I really want some sleep now. If there's still no action once I've posted this, I'll have to vote all on my own. How sad.

[A Little Green]

Argh. Bed-time.

++ Eomer

Hunch. G'night.

[Nogrod]

Thinking out aloud now...

If the seer has two dreams of people who are still living, s/he could come forwards and give us two names. Then we'd reward her/him with a lynch. On the next Night we'd have a new seer the wolves couldn't guess at in any way as that person has not acted seerish in any way so far and our ranger could protect one of the two making it possible the wolves miss a kill.

Well, the wolves might counter-reveal (or even take the initiative). How bad would that be? The consequences would be quite big whichever way we'd end up voting. If we lynch the real seer it's a success (we still have a seer and the wolves will not be replenished), but if we lynch the wolf we not only give them the heir but also risk losing the seer as well. The ranger could protect the not-lynched one though, but then the wolves would have a free kill of a known innocent the coming Night... In the longer run the ranger would be able to protect the lving revealed innocent the next Night though.

But we'd not be able to know anything, right?

We must be able to deduct things at some point of the game. So how probable it is on D4 (for example) we don't know who was lynched toDay if we lynch someone with a role? Thus far only ordos have been killed but we are fast running out of ordos and after the heir takes a role we start knowing things.

This makes me crazy.

Because of the false-reveal possibilities and the risks it involves I'm slightly against the seer revealing (and if the seer only has one or no names to give s/he should definitively stay quiet).

You are turning me towards thinking the hunter-lynch would be a good idea... But then again, a wolf might wish to do the false reveal (or take the initiative) here as well. And if we lynch a wolf as a hunter we give them the heir. The only positive thing is that we'd know we have done that.

On a more positive note: if there are two contestants for the hunter-role and we manage to lynch the right one we can lynch the impostor-wolf toMorrow.

Hmm.... (add there the risk of losing a gifted - or just an ordo - and weigh it against the chance of getting another wolf by the hunter) You've come up with a wicked game Shasta!

[Nogrod]

How cynical would it be to try and think who is a plain ordo and try to lynch her/him toDay throwing the ball back to the wolves for the Night hoping they would get one of our gifteds?

Well, I need to decide on that pretty soon as my bedtime is approaching as well.

Where is everyone?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

An Ordo could reveal: we give 'the ball' back to the wolves, letting them possibly (probably, at this stage?) turn the Heir into a gifted, maybe even picking the Hunter who kills one of them (very lucky).

A wolf could bluff and reveal as an Ordo but then we'd at least be down to 3 wolves and no heir - and we'd have all the information required to march on with the game.

[Nogrod]

Let's lynch the heir.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

A wolf could bluff and reveal as an Ordo but then we'd at least be down to 3 wolves and no heir - and we'd have all the information required to march on with the game.

Sorry Eomer, but we wouldn't have "all the information required to march on with the game". We wouldn't know if we lynched a wolf or a gifted, and thus the game would be anything but a normal one. Therefore it would be the most important we'd let the wolves kill a gifted first. That happening we'd know the killed was a goodie and has been replaced. From lynches we can't say this or that.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

How cynical would it be to try and think who is a plain ordo and try to lynch her/him toDay throwing the ball back to the wolves for the Night hoping they would get one of our gifteds?

Hey, certainly not that! I say that's really the worst thing we could do. If we do this, and the WWs do this, and we do this, and the WWs do this, then the WWs eventually win. Like, imagine the newspaper headlines: "Village lost by intentionally lynching only ordos!" Honestly!!!

EDIT: x-ed since my last

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Let's be honest: we don't have a clue who could be a wolf. Absolutely no clue. Nothing done so far can allow us useful speculation, given the nature of this game.

That's why we might as well allow the Hunter a free kill; it's as likely to be accurate as any village lynch - perhaps more so as it's uninfluenced by wolves. Let's just get this heir-business over with!

If the Hunter's still around, that is. :/

[Nogrod]

Any revelation is probably going to be followed by a counter-reveal - or the wolves could even trigger that themselves. Whatever gifted-role we talk about.

And it would be a mess.

So after all the thinking this evening I'd say no reveals!

Our best bet is to get the heir and end this nonsense.


What kind of player the heir could be? I think s/he'd wish not to get lynched or killed by Night. It is such a great role to play that the one having it would love to see the Day when it takes effect. So the heir would probably be very careful not to make anyone think s/he should be lynched or Night-killed but also visible enough not to be taken as a possible submarine wolf/seer by either side & involved enough not be the "no trace left behind Night-kill"...

A few names spring into my mind immediately: Lommy, Legate, Greenie, maybe Inzil...

EDIT: X'd from my last post onwards

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If we need to consider lynching a gifted - which is an option we might face soon enough - I do suggest we go for the ranger (if the ranger is willing to sacrifice her/himself) because s/he is immediately re-installed and the new one can continue in the role.

We gain nothing if we lynch the Ranger. If we lynch the Seer, we gain two names. If we lynch the Hunter, we get a kill that's not complicated by this mess. If we lynch the Ranger, we lose an ordo.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lynching the ranger does the "compensation" (that we get the heir: the role of the gifted we lynch stays in the game) as well without the risk of losing two innocents.

But we don't know that we got the Heir, not for certain, so it's a moot point. And if you never risk anything...

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

E-Two Wolves. We kill one, know it's a wolf, think the other is a hunter, if they don't die in the night, we know they're not, and lynch them toMorrow. (6-2).

The wolves might not kill the Hunter for fear of being killed. According to this, we'd lynch them anyway, and lynching the Hunter, for the wolves, is safer than Night-killing xem.

I'm all for the Hunter theory.

EDIT: xed since Moddly Dude

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here I am, I'll just post swiftly remarks to what's been said on the thread, and later maybe something more constructive...

Originally Posted by Loslote

I agree with this scenario - Sally's done the exact same thing before, and anyone who'd seen her do that (including, if I remember correctly, Nessa as well as the usual lot) would recognize that as a genuine offer. So the wolves, not wanting to hit a Gifted, go for the all but confirmed ordo.

Okay, point taken. Well I was counting on the idea of the WWs trying to get the Seer (as that's the one they'd want to get in any case, I believe, Heir or no Heir, it can be dangerous for them): that was a hypothesis I was verifying. The explanation that they just wanted the situation to keep as it is makes a lot of sense, although that means the pack is not very bold, but tries to sort of make the waters still and wait for us to make the first slip. Or, they could be just sportish and merely accepted sally's offer to be lynched for their own (which I find plausible).

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Should we just accept that we have to hunt wolves or should we perhaps think about lynching our Hunter today? It guarantees that the Heir becomes another Hunter, and it takes a shot at killing someone else at the same time. Could be a wolf, could not; but it's the same chance as getting a wolf as our lynching would be, and it gets us the Heir as guaranteed.

Just thinking out loud here; please judge the idea critically.

To dangerous place, this will take us, but of course we cannot prolongate this Heir-stalemate forever. A Hunter killed at Night would be far more benefitial for us, though of course, we are not the masters of the fate in this. I have to think about this...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Lynching the ranger does the "compensation" (that we get the heir: the role of the gifted we lynch stays in the game) as well without the risk of losing two innocents.

Well what, in such case, would prevent a Wolf from coming to you and saying: "Hi, I'm the Ranger?"

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Like Inzil said, killing the Hunter has the advantage that we can actually tell what role the Heir assumes. If we go with your plan and lynch the Ranger, there's always the possibility we lynch a false Ranger instead and would never be any the wiser. (Though how probable is it that the wolves want to take the risk and have one of them fake-reveal?

Not any less, I'm afraid - if there was ever a game suitable for fake revealing, I guess this is it...

Originally Posted by Nogrod

We will not be any wiser whomever we lynch if that person has a role, but the hunter of course. But lynching the hunter on D2 gives a great probability of losing another innocent - or even a gifted. The hunter would have a 30% chance of getting a wolf against 60% (70%) to kill an innocent, to be exact.

Quoting Han Solo, "Never tell me the odds!" Honestly, I don't see so much in statistics, simply because real life (and WW too) does not really operate like that. Okay, of course in some basic way, but for this case, I think the difference does not really make a difference (? interesting). But anyway, the fact is that there is the risk of the Hunter killing somebody during the Day, the question is not "how many percent" but more like "is it worth it?"

EDIT: x-ed with some Greenie, her vote, few Nogrods, Eomer and such...

[Thinlómien]

Beep beep beep! Boromir88 is a wolf let's lynch him. Honestly, this is not a joke. He is just false. I admit part of my reason to think him weird is that he is not around as much as normal, but what he says seems weird. He is non-committal and doesn't give me the good solid honest Boro (who might be annoyingly tricksy but who's still always nice) feeling. He just seems off. And no, this is not knee jerk suspicion, although 1) his suspicion seems weird and 2) I'd be tempted to say he's a wolf and anxious to see me go because I have scared him enough by boasting about my infallible bororadar. (Which is not btw infallible but rather good! I tend to figure him out but at times I'm unsure and thenm it can go either way.)

Kind of agreeing with Eomer and Zil though. The problem is, I have to go to sleep soon and I'm not the hunter, so I don't know who to vote. So might be I'll go for Boro.

Originally Posted by Greenie

(Though how probable is it that the wolves want to take the risk and have one of them fake-reveal?)

And what's the risk of it for them? The false revealer may die, but he will be replaced with a newborn wolf, who is harder to detect for the village. I think false reveals are a big reason why we shouldn't lynch the ranger or the seer.

Nog we shouldn't wait to lynch the hunter, if we do it, we should do it toDay. Because otherwise we probably either lose another ordo or lynch a wolf which is nice but creates a new one. And the situation is the same every effing Day unless a gifted is killed at Night, so we'd better get rid of the heir business. Otherwise the wolves just win this because all the ordos die.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Let's lynch the heir.

Haha. Another idea btw - I wonder if everybody seems so half-hearted because they are ordos and they don't know if they are the heir or not so they are thinking they might have to change sides so they don't want to be too helpful...? That'd be stupid imo, but just throwing that out.

Originally Posted by Nessa

Wait, Nerwen or Sally could have been gifteds, only because of the heir, their roles weren't revealed. Is that possible?

No. Everybody else's role is revealed normally except the one's whose role the heir inherits.


edit: xed since Lottie... !!!

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

.

No. Everybody else's role is revealed normally except the one's whose role the heir inherits.


edit: xed since Lottie... !!!

Well, I figured if one of them had been a gifted and the heir had taken over, wouldn't they just be revealed as an ordo?

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nessa

Well, I figured if one of them had been a gifted and the heir had taken over, wouldn't they just be revealed as an ordo?

Aiee! I just thought Shasta would say something like "the heir took over their role". Dear Mr Mod, care to clarify?

Probably voting Lottie today.


edit: xed with the two last ones

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

If so, for that matter, should we "vote" whom we'd like to see Hunted, or something like that? If even just for the record...

Good idea. let's do that.

[Thinlómien]

Wilwa - quiet, and nicely under the radar.
Lottie - is most probably <3
Boro - see what I said earlier. My top suspect atm.
Elronhubbard - slightly weird, touchy and making kind of eyebrow-raising choices. Then again, didn't we all do that first time? Difficult.
Eomer - kind of like him and his logic. I tend to suspect him too easily so for now I'm just ignoring his style.
Greenie - mostly seems like her busy and uninvolved ordo self who nevertheless brings up good points.
Inzil - seems more reliable toDay, and not only because I agreed with him about the hunter issue.
Nogrod - slightly difficult to read. I wonder if he's evil or if we just disagree. Wondering if he'd known that any ordo can be the heir if he was one himself.
Legate - difficult again. Leaning innocent, but also kind of under the radar.
Nessa - umm... no idea to be honest.

So, if I had to guess: the wolves are Boro, Nog and Nessa.

+ Boro for hunter pick

++ LOTTIE

I'm googling a few things for tomorrow's exam (the downsides of making brief notes with just noting down the terminology) and brush my teeth so I'll be keeping an eye on this thread for a moment, but then I'm off to bed. Have to wake up tomorrow!


edit: xed with everyone on this page and maybe more

[Nogrod]

Okay. I'm getting even more confused...

I do not think that lynching the hunter is a good idea just because it let's us know who was lynched (or that it gives us a possibility of getting a wolf as well - as the chances are quite thin indeed and the risks are great), but reading Wilwa's post there has a good point: lynching the hunter would get us rid from this nausea and we could start playing.

If we think a 2/3 chance of an additional death of an innocent (including a 20% chance of killing either the ranger or the seer) is price worth paying to get rid of this stalemate, then it might be considered. I'm not sure I'm happy with that, but I'm also willing to get this heir-bussiness out of the way asap.

EDIT: X'd with Greenie

[Nessa Telrunya]

Okay, I'm gathering multiple possibilites for whichever coordinated vote-if any-we'd go for. And these are all assuming that no ordos are jumping in, for whatever reason. Right now, we are 7-1-3

So let's assume we're going for the hunter.

One person comes forward.
A-It's the real hunter, and we kill them. They take someone with them, so we know they were telling the truth, and that, unless they were the Hunter's kill, the heir will join our side. The wolves lose the heir advantage, and make a kill with their regular logic. If the hunter takes a villager with them, it's 6-3. If they take a wolf, it's 7-2

B-Or, for some reason the hunter is scared, and a wolf comes out. We lynch them, no one else dies so we know they faked and are highly possible to be a wolf to look at their posts, and the heir goes to the baddies and they use normal logic. 7-3

Two people come forward..

C-It's a Hunter and a Wolf. We lynch the Hunter, and their kill afterwards confirms it. The other is obviously a wolf, so we have an idea of who to examine/lynch. The heir is our new hunter. The wolves have to use normal logic. If the hunter takes a villager, it's 6-2, if a wolf, it's 7-2.

D-It's a Hunter and a wolf. We lynch the Wolf. There is no other kill, so we know the Hunter didn't die. We know who the real Hunter is, so they either die the next Night(6-3), or we lynch them the next day(either 6-2 or 5-3). The heir goes to the baddies.

E-Two Wolves. We kill one, know it's a wolf, think the other is a hunter, if they don't die in the night, we know they're not, and lynch them toMorrow. (6-2)

I won't go into the specifics if we get three or four coming forward, but we'll know if we lynch the hunter, and that at least one is the real one(in the case of four). To be honest, lynching the ranger won't get us an extra kill OR any sense of security in the role of who we killed. My calculations may be off, but I tried.

And this is all assuming we go for a Hunter reveal.