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Old 12-15-2010, 11:00 AM   #332
Thinlómien
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Couldn't concentrate on the essay, so decided to have look on yesterDay. Trying to think from the wolves' pow and be objective, but can't guarantee I think the same way they did. Judging hunter picks as if hunters acted straightforwardly (hunted the same people they suspect) which is admittedly not even close to waterproof.

Greenie
probable hunter picks: maybe Elra or Legate not Wilwa or Lommy
giftedish behaviour? impossible to say
good kill for: Wilwa. Kind of good for me. Elra and Legate would've been gambling.

Legate
probable hunter picks: Elra, not Lommy, Wilwa or Greenie
giftedish behaviour? gives failry ungifted vibes if you ask me. (Now I know that sounds pretty mean but it was only meant in the ww role sense. )
good kill for: Wilwa, Lommy. Not for Elra.

Lommy
probable hunter picks: maybe Elra or Legate not Wilwa or Greenie
giftedish behaviour? I don't think I was being obvious but I'm not maybe the best judge for this.
good kill for: Wilwa. Elra and Legate in danger.

Rondie
probable hunter picks: not Legate
giftedish behaviour? no...?
good kill for: Legate, others would be very unsure.

Wilwa
probable hunter picks: not Lommy
giftedish behaviour? kind of - it would have been a brilliant move for the hunter not to vote or mention more suspects, I wonder if the wolves thought about this.
good kill for: nobody or anybody, depends how you read it. Best for me, unless she was double-bluffing.


So in total (leaving myself out)
Good kills for Wilwa: Greenie, Legate and Lommy. Elra not a bad choice.
Good kills for Elra: Wilwa. Others suspected her, Legate the most.
Good kills for Legate: Elra. Wilwa totally random, Greenie and me slightly dangerous.

So:
Good kills for Wilwa+Elra: None. Okay kills: Greenie, Lommy (but Legate would've been in danger).
Good kills for Elra+ Legate: Best kill undoubtedly Wilwa because Lommy & Greenie bot suspected them both
Good kills for Legate+Wilwa: I say Elra would've been the best bet since she trusted Legate and didn't say anything about the others. Okay kills: Greenie, Lommy (but Legate would've been in danger).

Greenie probably hunted Elra or Legate, so at least one of them is innocent. Ergo, Wilwa is a wolf.

If you look just at suspects, Greenie would've been the best kill for a team of Wilwa+Rondie, other teams would have probably gone for someone else. I think this logic is fairly valid because the wolves definitely wanted to avoid the hunter taking down one of them, especially as (as far as I see) there were not any special reasons that would make killing someone especially beneficial or especially harmful kill (ie clear ranger or hunter) universally.

Of course, Elra and Legate were probably the most suspected ones yesterDay, so it would have kind of made sense to leave them around to gather votes. But then again, it might have been smart not to attack Wilwa too (dangerous hunter because lack of opinions) or me or Greenie (likely-ish lynch material after Boro proven innocent), so I would regard the suspicions better proof.

Currently quite positive Wilwa is a wolf. Elra and Legate don't look like fellows (if they are, hats off!), and Wilwa looks the least innocent out of the three (although she has been marvellously unsuspicious all along, I have to say). Like I said, the kill points more towards Elra being the other wolf than Legate (and so does my common sense) but I'd prefer lynching Wilwa toDay to lynching Elra because I feel more sure about Wilwa and (sounds so mean to say!) I'd rather meet the wolf cub Elra in next Night's gamble than Wilwa who is an experienced player.
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