WW: LXXXIV - Middle Earth in Fifteen Minutes

[Thinlómien]

Couldn't concentrate on the essay, so decided to have look on yesterDay. Trying to think from the wolves' pow and be objective, but can't guarantee I think the same way they did. Judging hunter picks as if hunters acted straightforwardly (hunted the same people they suspect) which is admittedly not even close to waterproof.

Greenie
probable hunter picks: maybe Elra or Legate not Wilwa or Lommy
giftedish behaviour? impossible to say
good kill for: Wilwa. Kind of good for me. Elra and Legate would've been gambling.

Legate
probable hunter picks: Elra, not Lommy, Wilwa or Greenie
giftedish behaviour? gives failry ungifted vibes if you ask me. (Now I know that sounds pretty mean but it was only meant in the ww role sense. )
good kill for: Wilwa, Lommy. Not for Elra.

Lommy
probable hunter picks: maybe Elra or Legate not Wilwa or Greenie
giftedish behaviour? I don't think I was being obvious but I'm not maybe the best judge for this.
good kill for: Wilwa. Elra and Legate in danger.

Rondie
probable hunter picks: not Legate
giftedish behaviour? no...?
good kill for: Legate, others would be very unsure.

Wilwa
probable hunter picks: not Lommy
giftedish behaviour? kind of - it would have been a brilliant move for the hunter not to vote or mention more suspects, I wonder if the wolves thought about this.
good kill for: nobody or anybody, depends how you read it. Best for me, unless she was double-bluffing.


So in total (leaving myself out)
Good kills for Wilwa: Greenie, Legate and Lommy. Elra not a bad choice.
Good kills for Elra: Wilwa. Others suspected her, Legate the most.
Good kills for Legate: Elra. Wilwa totally random, Greenie and me slightly dangerous.

So:
Good kills for Wilwa+Elra: None. Okay kills: Greenie, Lommy (but Legate would've been in danger).
Good kills for Elra+ Legate: Best kill undoubtedly Wilwa because Lommy & Greenie bot suspected them both
Good kills for Legate+Wilwa: I say Elra would've been the best bet since she trusted Legate and didn't say anything about the others. Okay kills: Greenie, Lommy (but Legate would've been in danger).

Greenie probably hunted Elra or Legate, so at least one of them is innocent. Ergo, Wilwa is a wolf.

If you look just at suspects, Greenie would've been the best kill for a team of Wilwa+Rondie, other teams would have probably gone for someone else. I think this logic is fairly valid because the wolves definitely wanted to avoid the hunter taking down one of them, especially as (as far as I see) there were not any special reasons that would make killing someone especially beneficial or especially harmful kill (ie clear ranger or hunter) universally.

Of course, Elra and Legate were probably the most suspected ones yesterDay, so it would have kind of made sense to leave them around to gather votes. But then again, it might have been smart not to attack Wilwa too (dangerous hunter because lack of opinions) or me or Greenie (likely-ish lynch material after Boro proven innocent), so I would regard the suspicions better proof.

Currently quite positive Wilwa is a wolf. Elra and Legate don't look like fellows (if they are, hats off!), and Wilwa looks the least innocent out of the three (although she has been marvellously unsuspicious all along, I have to say). Like I said, the kill points more towards Elra being the other wolf than Legate (and so does my common sense) but I'd prefer lynching Wilwa toDay to lynching Elra because I feel more sure about Wilwa and (sounds so mean to say!) I'd rather meet the wolf cub Elra in next Night's gamble than Wilwa who is an experienced player.

[Thinlómien]

Still no one else around, huh? Not the best Day to be quiet... Then I guess it's timezones. Anyway, I'm going to stop flood-posting for now and since I now know where I stand until new evidence appears I can maybe concentrate on the esaay without being agonising over this game all the time... I'll be online at the same time, though, and refreshing this thread every now and then.

[elronds_daughter]

Unfortunate that toDay is so...momentous. Real life has me writing an entire minuet, due to be performed in less than three hours, and it's not quite half finished.
But I shall take a moment here before I go back to the world of 18th-century counterpoint....

Lommy...I believe you. I think. And I'm inclined to think Wilwa's a wolf. Probably Legate too, if you are who you say you are. (If you aren't, shame on me, but it seems an elaborate lie for this late in the game. So, I think you're being truthsome.)


Right. Now back to channeling Bach.

[Thinlómien]

*bangs head against wall*

*curses Legate*

*wants to explode*

That was a darn innocent post. LRH is innocent or then she is really awfully quick to give up her partner in crime. I wouldn't think that so unlikely if she suspected Legate a lot and Wilwa a bit less, but the fact that she suspects Wilwa more - when Legate is not her fellow, just can't be, or I'll eat my shoes - makes me pretty sure she's innocent. Or then she's just very cunning. Aiergh.

Then again, if Legate is a wolf, he's been just brilliant. I mean, wonderful. Argh. The funny thing is, if we lynch Wilwa toDay like I'd strongly suggest, then we (hopefully me and Nessa both still alive ) are still facing the same decision - Legate or LRH - tomorrow.

Anyway, toDay should tell us something. Hmm, I just got an idea how to avoid writing my essay: I could go through Wilwa's interactions with Legate and LRH and see which one looks more guilty.

Okay, okay, I won't, at least not yet. I still have lots of work in the essay and I think I'll just shut up until people show up. I'm most interested to see what Legate and Wilwa have to say. And I miss you, Nessa. Starting to feel paranoid alone, and also getting a superhero complex: I'm thinking I have to save the village alone. (Would be funny if it wasn't so stressful!)

Off to write essay. Hopefully someone appears soon. I'll be checking what's happening every now and then.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Or then she's just very cunning. Aiergh.

That one. I know you've no reason to believe me, but if you kill me, we lose. Simple as that. Legate and LRH are the wolves, I know that for sure (since I'm inclined to believe you, I can't see a wolf false-revealing right now when they have the oppurtunity to win toDay).

And I don't like that you've become totally convinced of my guilt. Your whole case is assuming that the wolves thought Greenie was a possible Hunter, maybe they had some strong reason to believe she was the Ranger, or a strong reason to believe that someone else was the Hunter (and therefore Greenie was not). You're making a big assumption, and it's taken you to the incorrect conclusion.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

And I don't like that you've become totally convinced of my guilt. Your whole case is assuming that the wolves thought Greenie was a possible Hunter, maybe they had some strong reason to believe she was the Ranger, or a strong reason to believe that someone else was the Hunter (and therefore Greenie was not). You're making a big assumption, and it's taken you to the incorrect conclusion.

I'm simply thinking they would've been scared of the hunter. Can't disagree, can you?

I have to say I've actually surprised myself with my conviction of your guilt. BUT even apart from the Greenie kill theory you look the most guilty and I feel sorry to say this because you've played so well: but Legate and LRH don't really sound like fellows at all. Take all Legate's spotlighting of LRH and LRH saying to Legate that his suspicion of her makes her think him innocent... it's quite a stretch.

Also, if both LRH and Legate are guilty, it means Greenie hunted me or you last Night. That's possible, but I'd think it slightly unlikely given how she seemed to have "rational" points for our innocence, and if you're innocent it's quite difficult to fabricate rational reasons and not believe in them at all.

Anyhow - call this lommy-flip-flopping or whatever you will - I'm not 100% sure you're guilty. I think lynching you is the safest option we have. However, like I said, my opinion may change, depends on what you and Legate and LRH say before my bedtime. I know I kind of killed the situation by rushing to state my own opinions but I can't play in a more calculated manner even if it makes sense. Well at least now I can see who is the most eager to buddy me up.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Okay, I think, even though before I had suspicions, Lommy, it'd be ridiculous for a wolf to false-reveal at this point, when they've nearly won already. So, I do believe you.

I'm not sure, however, that I can believe Wilwa to be a wolf. She posted so seldom for the longest time, and that seems extremely strange behavior for a wolf...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I'm not sure, however, that I can believe Wilwa to be a wolf. She posted so seldom for the longest time, and that seems extremely strange behavior for a wolf...

Well, she has been busy, I think. That's explanation enough for me. Schedules often matter more than your role.

But I'm not going to brainwash you into voting anyone. If there's something I value toDay, it's your independent thinking because otherwise it's just me and my superhero complex. So tell me what you think, who looks the most suspicious, what looks like the most probable wolf combo etc and let's see if we get any wiser together. Most of all the two of us shouldn't vote hastily, because it's us who actually decide toDay (scary, eh?) because the unknown innocent can't vote wrong (good for them!) unless s/he decides to vote me or you.

I have a few points against each of LRH, Wilwa and Legate in store but I think I'll shut up for a while and let you others talk and think and observe. After all, I still have the essay too.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Great, so Lommy's revelation makes it all clear at least for me: obviously. The trouble we have is that each of the three of us is going to say the same. Whichever way it ends, though, I am glad that I was right about LRH. Her partnership with Wilwa makes quite a lot of sense when looking at it now.

Nessa and Lommy, in fact you are in the place to save the village, because if you lynch me, then we have lost. Basically, it does not make much of a difference from my pov whichever you lynch, wilwa or LRH, simply don't lynch ME.

That said, I am afraid that we won't be able to get much further from here. I guess we can try to make some arguments and try to see why they are Wolves, but ultimately, this is just what it comes down to.

EDIT: x-ed with Lommy and Nessa

[Nessa Telrunya]

I am really suspicious of the Inzil-Hubby conversation on Day 1... It's something to start with right? Trace the other wolves from the one we know. And she's been chipping in at just the right moments to tip the Votes.

[elronds_daughter]

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I am really suspicious of the Inzil-Hubby conversation on Day 1... It's something to start with right? Trace the other wolves from the one we know. And she's been chipping in at just the right moments to tip the Votes.

Completely coincidental, I assure you.


Right. Well. I stand firm in my belief that the wolves are Wilwa and Legate.

I have a feeling those two will vote for me. At this point, I'm the only other unknown.

They've already been through the "By the gods, I don't care who you kill, just don't lynch ME" routine, so that's old, so I won't bother with it.

All I ask is that you, Nessa and Lommy, think carefully about who you're sending to the noose.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I have looked once again at the thread, now when I look at it retrospectively, all of the things stand out in a completely different light.

LRH indeed acted many times in the manner of the sort of basic Wolf, or newbie-Wolf attitude. Her Day 1 "of course now everybody is suspecting me, just because of a little bit of self-preservational instinct" was probably a genuine Wolvish fear, likewise, she seemed to me like using the tactic of "buttering up" players from time to time - I even believe that her yesterDay words that because I suspect her, she thinks I am innocent might have been something like that - I mean, that's a thing you might suppose to throw many innocents off-balance if they are suspecting you. Her way of e.g. suspecting me and Lommy early on was made in the sort of classic "I am suspecting them, but of course I might be wrong" way, to make herself an escape route, if need be. And the Inzil-debate was just the last thing.

Wilwa, on the other hand, was all the time generally subtle, I would say that she was basically avoiding making her own decisions. Her posts early on contain basically no real content, that way, she managed to slip past by and "fly under the radar". Her vote on Day 1 was random, her vote for Lottie was merely one in the crowd, with Inzil, she probably planned to cover herself with a Wolf-on-Wolf vote. Last Day she did not vote at all. She did not make much of a contact with anybody, not really any direct links, except for mentioning the Lommy and Boro business, which however was sort of "in course" back then. I am sure it was all just calculated. Basically, she is the sort of elusive type of Wolf, leaving no direct trace.

That's sort of to do justice to everything - you can see for yourselves.