[A Little Green]

Had a quick look at Nerwen.

NERWEN, DAY 1

Only one post, no vote. But then, I'd have been surprised if there had been one. Basically she summarises what Nilp, Sally, and Bom have done, and asks Bom to clarify how much of his famous post was a joke. I think I've called this post of Nerwen's careful and neutral twice already. She takes no stance on any of the issues she comments on, and, this being her only post of the Day, we have pretty much nothing on what was going through her mind that Day.


NERWEN, DAY 2

In her first post toDay, she (surprisingly) laments Shasta's death and wonders why he was killed.

However, looking at yesterDay's chaos of accusations, counter-accusations and passionate defences, it's interesting that apparently nobody looked more like the Seer to the wolves. Shasta's case on Lottie was built on in-game evidence– whereas, a good many players seemed ready to defend/suspect others at the drop of a hat.

I think this is a valid point. The trouble is, I could also see a Nerwolf trying to distract the village into futilely debating the reasons behind the kill. This would point, possibly, to a packmate gathering too much attention. Nah. I don't know.

Actually, some of Sally's reaction to G55 could be a wolf trying to distance herself from a cub who's been too quick to defend her. It would fit that pattern quite well in fact. However, as you say, she did press it further than would be needed– so if they're in it together, it would mean Sallywolf was trying to bus her newbie comrade for little reason.

More importantly, though, we also have a known wolf to look at, and G55 happens to be the only person that wolf went after.

So, the key question, then is: how likely is it that Wolflote would make a wolf-on-wolf attack on Wolf55 at that point and in that way?

I really like Nerwen in this post. She's sharp and her reasoning is sound, and the points she makes are ones I'm not sure a wolf would be fond of making.

Her third toDay continues the speculation of a possible Lottie-Sally-Galadriel-trio.

It's perhaps more likely Wolflote would go strongly after a newbie comrade than Sallywolf, simply because Lottie tends to be very pessimistic about her own chances of survival– she might have reasoned that ione or other of them would probably die early anyway, and thus that a real wolf-on-wolf attack was the best bet. All the same, it's most unusual for a wolf to give herself no other option but voting a comrade.

Not much to say about Lommy, except to concur that her Legate-180 on Wolflote is peculiar (even coming from the Queen of Flip-floppers).

Her fourth starts with pondering the implications of Lottie forgetting or "forgetting" that Kit was playing. Again, sensible and sharp.

Are you talking about Lottie's claim that she "didn't know Kit was playing"? I don't know– it was, of course, suspicious, with hindsight– but it might have been meant as a more general "look at me, I'm a clueless innocent" ploy, rather than having anything to do with Kit herself. On the other hand (or paw) Lottie did make quite a point of it: at #106 she says, Did I miss something? I could well have - I totally forgot Kit was playing at all, I might have forgotten there was a cobbler, too...

She then moves on to comment on Mith's idea that the modified Ranger might affect the choices of Night kills:

Seconded. That would explain a few things– it's been suggested the wolves thought Shasta was the Seer because of his case on Lottie and/or comments about Sally, but I find that unlikely (unless they panicked). It's just so hard not to think of getting the Seer as the lupine priority.

The problem I have with this argument is that Shasta, though not particularly Seerish, still seemed to me an obvious choice for Night kill, given his role in the lynching of Lottie. Therefore if the wolves were afraid of the Ranger, I doubt they'd have gone after Shasta.

Conclusions? I think there's too little material to form any definite conclusion from, but for now, I'll remain wary of her. What bothers me is that even as all her posts could go either way, at the same time half of them scream "innocent" and the other half "suspicious".


EDIT: x-ed since my last - yay people!