The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum - View Single Post - Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

Coppermirror · 08-16-2012, 07:45 AM

So G55 was taken instead of Sally. This is very interesting indeed, and quite a surprise.

Why her?...Pretty much everyone trusted her. She wasn't quite at the point of being a known innocent like Sally, but there was no realistic chance that anyone would vote for her. I suppose she might as well have been a known innocent, if you think of it that way. In which case....

There must be some advantage to the wolf of killing her. Sally, the wolf may believe that you will be easier to persuade than G55 that they're innocent and one of the rest of us is not. Either that, or they are doing this just to confuse us. G55 was around a fair amount yesterDay and did what I thought was quite good analysis. Perhaps there's a chance she struck upon a damaging point for the wolf.

I know I said yesterday that I would vote Shasta. However, I thought about this overNight and decided to do an analysis of Pitchwolf today too, just in case I find anything. There's one point I suspect Shasta on that's bothering me a bit and which I want to look over again in case it's a trick against him. At present, before going through my analysis, I do still find Shasta the most suspicious and the one I'm most likely to vote for. But the Day is long. And really, after such a puzzling move from the wolf, I feel quite motivated to track them down and not allow luck to enter into the equation.

Let's see...out of the known innocents from yesterDay, Eomer thought that Shasta was most suspicious, but G55, if I remember right, thought Eomer and Pitch were the most suspicious. And I thought Eomer and Shasta were. Can't remember what Sally thought.

ToDay is the last Day. If we fail toDay, the village loses without a doubt.

Worst case scenario:
ToDay: 3 villagers, 1 wolf.
We lynch an innocent villager. 2 villagers, 1 wolf.
ToNight: The wolf kills an innocent villager. Village loses.

Yes, that's got to be correct. Therefore...I must assume that the move of taking out G55 is to the wolf's advantage in some way. Even a very small way. My first thought was that G55 might have been got rid of because she was very unlikely to vote for me (and me for her). However, the more I think of that the more I think that can't be it. Because a hypothetical wolf-me would have to be a complete idiot to get rid of someone who would be so unlikely to vote against me.

Eomer, I'm sorry we made a mistake lynching you yesterDay! I'll do my best to look for the wolf. Although I'm beginning to think they're a trickier customer than expected.

Sally, can you think of any reason why the wolf would want to keep you alive rather than G55? (Although there's a possibility G55 was killed because of her own actions.)

08-16-2012, 07:45 AM	#190
Coppermirror Shade of Carn Dûm Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 344	So G55 was taken instead of Sally. This is very interesting indeed, and quite a surprise. Why her?...Pretty much everyone trusted her. She wasn't quite at the point of being a known innocent like Sally, but there was no realistic chance that anyone would vote for her. I suppose she might as well have been a known innocent, if you think of it that way. In which case.... There must be some advantage to the wolf of killing her. Sally, the wolf may believe that you will be easier to persuade than G55 that they're innocent and one of the rest of us is not. Either that, or they are doing this just to confuse us. G55 was around a fair amount yesterDay and did what I thought was quite good analysis. Perhaps there's a chance she struck upon a damaging point for the wolf. I know I said yesterday that I would vote Shasta. However, I thought about this overNight and decided to do an analysis of Pitchwolf today too, just in case I find anything. There's one point I suspect Shasta on that's bothering me a bit and which I want to look over again in case it's a trick against him. At present, before going through my analysis, I do still find Shasta the most suspicious and the one I'm most likely to vote for. But the Day is long. And really, after such a puzzling move from the wolf, I feel quite motivated to track them down and not allow luck to enter into the equation. Let's see...out of the known innocents from yesterDay, Eomer thought that Shasta was most suspicious, but G55, if I remember right, thought Eomer and Pitch were the most suspicious. And I thought Eomer and Shasta were. Can't remember what Sally thought. ToDay is the last Day. If we fail toDay, the village loses without a doubt. Worst case scenario: ToDay: 3 villagers, 1 wolf. We lynch an innocent villager. 2 villagers, 1 wolf. ToNight: The wolf kills an innocent villager. Village loses. Yes, that's got to be correct. Therefore...I must assume that the move of taking out G55 is to the wolf's advantage in some way. Even a very small way. My first thought was that G55 might have been got rid of because she was very unlikely to vote for me (and me for her). However, the more I think of that the more I think that can't be it. Because a hypothetical wolf-me would have to be a complete idiot to get rid of someone who would be so unlikely to vote against me. Eomer, I'm sorry we made a mistake lynching you yesterDay! I'll do my best to look for the wolf. Although I'm beginning to think they're a trickier customer than expected. Sally, can you think of any reason why the wolf would want to keep you alive rather than G55? (Although there's a possibility G55 was killed because of her own actions.)