Werewolf XCVII: Werewolves in the Westfold Game Thread

[Coppermirror]

So G55 was taken instead of Sally. This is very interesting indeed, and quite a surprise.

Why her?...Pretty much everyone trusted her. She wasn't quite at the point of being a known innocent like Sally, but there was no realistic chance that anyone would vote for her. I suppose she might as well have been a known innocent, if you think of it that way. In which case....

There must be some advantage to the wolf of killing her. Sally, the wolf may believe that you will be easier to persuade than G55 that they're innocent and one of the rest of us is not. Either that, or they are doing this just to confuse us. G55 was around a fair amount yesterDay and did what I thought was quite good analysis. Perhaps there's a chance she struck upon a damaging point for the wolf.

I know I said yesterday that I would vote Shasta. However, I thought about this overNight and decided to do an analysis of Pitchwolf today too, just in case I find anything. There's one point I suspect Shasta on that's bothering me a bit and which I want to look over again in case it's a trick against him. At present, before going through my analysis, I do still find Shasta the most suspicious and the one I'm most likely to vote for. But the Day is long. And really, after such a puzzling move from the wolf, I feel quite motivated to track them down and not allow luck to enter into the equation.

Let's see...out of the known innocents from yesterDay, Eomer thought that Shasta was most suspicious, but G55, if I remember right, thought Eomer and Pitch were the most suspicious. And I thought Eomer and Shasta were. Can't remember what Sally thought.

ToDay is the last Day. If we fail toDay, the village loses without a doubt.

Worst case scenario:
ToDay: 3 villagers, 1 wolf.
We lynch an innocent villager. 2 villagers, 1 wolf.
ToNight: The wolf kills an innocent villager. Village loses.

Yes, that's got to be correct. Therefore...I must assume that the move of taking out G55 is to the wolf's advantage in some way. Even a very small way. My first thought was that G55 might have been got rid of because she was very unlikely to vote for me (and me for her). However, the more I think of that the more I think that can't be it. Because a hypothetical wolf-me would have to be a complete idiot to get rid of someone who would be so unlikely to vote against me.

Eomer, I'm sorry we made a mistake lynching you yesterDay! I'll do my best to look for the wolf. Although I'm beginning to think they're a trickier customer than expected.

Sally, can you think of any reason why the wolf would want to keep you alive rather than G55? (Although there's a possibility G55 was killed because of her own actions.)

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Sally, can you think of any reason why the wolf would want to keep you alive rather than G55? (Although there's a possibility G55 was killed because of her own actions.)

Insanity? Suicide? Shenanigans? No idea, but whatever the case, there is still one known innocent among us (hello, all), which means we have a ridiculously decent chance of catching a wolf toDay. Also, I'm still alive, so whatever the reason, I'm pleased.


Preface: Shasta, I love you, babe.

Shasta gets upset when his pack is demolished, especially in short order. I know this. YesterDay he showed no signs of being a wolfy wolf boy, at least a really frustrated wolfy wolf boy. When he was up for lynch yesterDay, he did vote to save himself, but he didn't do anything....rash isn't the correct word, but I've had a sleep-depriving few days, so I'll use it anyway, lest I use something even more rude by mistake. The point is that he handled yesterDay really rather well, which, given his recent trend to not handle lynchings well, led me to think yesterDay that he is probably innocent.

That said, he has had a wolf victory in the recent past, which easily could have tempered that losing streak rage that I know very well he has been feeling of late. So if that has inclined him to be less bitter about his pack being taken away from him, I could see him handling yesterDay's situation quite well despite the circumstances. Also, Shasta is a fabulous lone wolf, and may in fact flourish in this adversity, especially since his packmates were struck down so quickly. Shasta Alwolfduin would not hesitate to vote a packmate if it meant the good of the pack. Thus, analyzing his vote record is rather pointless, especially given the craziness of Kitagast and Wolfiladun. He once cast the killing blow against me when we were in a pack together, and then went on to win the game due in large part to that action. Put nothing past him. He is a tricksy, wild little psychic flaming wolf boy, and he is capable of anything.

In short, he's not acting like a cornered Shastawolf would normally act, but normality has changed recently, so that may in fact mean nothing. I need to think more.

I'm going to go look at some posts now, but bear with me, as I could still use some more sleep and may crawl (literally) back into bed at some point during my endeavors.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

In short, he's not acting like a cornered Shastawolf would normally act, but normality has changed recently, so that may in fact mean nothing. I need to think more.

In addition to his recent victory, I think having got rid of Kitannagast would make a difference. The Shastawolf I've played with, both as packmate and on the village side, hates and fears revealed seers, because no matter how well he plays, they can always dream and out him. Knowing that Kit hadn't dreamed him and he could kill her next Night, and being confident of his abilities as a lone wolf could explain his relaxed attitude.

That's not saying we should rule Cop out. Whether or not she's really new to the Downs (see Eomer's speculation yesterDay), she's clearly not new to the game as per her posting, so I'm not giving her passes anymore because "a first-timer wouldn't have done that".

[Pitchwife]

Argn. I have that nagging paranoia in me that Cop is secretly a very cunning wolf about to sail through and make it (when I read her first post(s) toDay I thought I saw a wolf explaining her choice of kill), but every time I think I find something wolvish in her posts, it dissolves under closer inspection.

So I sought enlightenment in Shasta's analysis of her and would like to comment a few points.

Originally Posted by Shasta #171

In hindsight, obviously, the fact that Nessa ended up a wolf makes this vote look better. At the time, though, Kit had two votes and (assuming, obviously, Inzilwolf and Sallyordo) the third wolf yet to vote, so this could be a wolf-on-wolf vote.

But not, of course, if the third wolf had already voted (just saying); also, why "assuming" Inzilwolf and Sallyordo, when we now know that to be their roles? What you're really assuming here (or want us to assume) is your own innocence, on which the argument depends.

Originally Posted by Shasta #171

Originally Posted by Cop
Honestly I find both our possible Seers very suspicious. I don't feel comfortable being the person to bring Kitanna to 4 votes out of 8, ensuring either a Kitanna lynch or a tie (which would be decided randomly). My gut tells me Kitanna, and my head tells me Inzil, and I don't know which to go with. By now I've spent about 5 hours looking at this, and I'm none the wiser, but much more tired and out of patience. So I'm going to cop out on this and leave it up to the three other people who have yet to vote. We'll know soon enough who's telling the truth, I suppose, even if the circumstances aren't ideal. I may or may not be back before the deadline.
This makes it look like you were setting yourself up to have been suspicious of both Inzil and Kitanna... if you were a wolf, you'd know who was lying and who was telling the truth, and... I'm not actually sure what that means in regards to your wolfishness or innocence. I'm tired. But something tells me it's important, so I'm leaving it here.

Hm, if she were a wolf and knew Zil was lying, she would of course set herself up to have been suspicious of him, but why of Kit, who would be revealed to be innocent? She might voice some doubt, so it wouldn't seem she knew too much with hindsight, but focus on suspecting Zil, I think, not wade through all those arguments for or against either side, like she's done. And honestly, Shasta, your last words here sound a bit like, "Hm, I can't really spin this into anything incriminating, but something always sticks."

What stuck out to me in this quote was the phrasing "I don't feel comfortable", which sounds like she's very concerned with how her vote will be viewed by others, and with not raising suspicion against herself. I also notice that every Day up to now, she voted for the player who would end up lynched. I don't know why, but somehow I find that creepy. (Which is a feeling, not an argument.)

The rest of the points Shasta brings against her are pretty much could-bes (or could-be-nots. So yes, I'd say his analysis is a wee bit biased, but I've seen far worse ones (in term of bias, not quality) from a Shastawolf, and his reflection on the matter in his voting post does sound innocent (whether naturally or studiously so, I've no idea).

Which doesn't bring us very much further, I'm afraid.

By the way, I suppose you've all figured out that I'll have to vote first again, and that I'll vote for either Cop or Shasta; also that if I screw up and vote the unknown ordo, the wolf can pile on it. That in mind, is anybody around to talk? I don't have all night.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

You guys are going to make my head swell up like a balloon.

But in any case, why is Sally not dead? Love you, dear, but having a known innocent alive at endgame just... I don't know. I suppose G55 might have been just as good, as no one ever seriously suspected her... but still, a Seer-dreamt innocent means there's no chance Sally will be lynched, whereas there was always the tiny chance G55 could have been framed today.

I'm going to have to go back and read more, but given Cop's fixation on voting me today should Eomer turn out innocent, and the fact that she's still alive today, almost makes me think we have a Pitchwolf. But I can't say that with any surety, as I haven't looked at him at all yet. That was just my first reaction.

In addition, Cop responded to some of my points against her yesterday by simple acknowledgement ("Yeah, I did that, so what?") which is something I'm never comfortable with.

Hmm.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitch

But not, of course, if the third wolf had already voted (just saying); also, why "assuming" Inzilwolf and Sallyordo, when we now know that to be their roles? What you're really assuming here (or want us to assume) is your own innocence, on which the argument depends.

Of course it does. I know I'm innocent, so to me, it's a solid argument.

Originally Posted by Pitch

And honestly, Shasta, your last words here sound a bit like, "Hm, I can't really spin this into anything incriminating, but something always sticks."

...Or I'd stayed up till the dawn and lost my train of thought due to being exhausted. If I'd thought it was no longer important or relevant, I wouldn't have posted it. You're reaching a bit here.

In any case, I'm having to run out the door now. I should be back in a few hours.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Of course it does. I know I'm innocent, so to me, it's a solid argument.

Sure. What I was bothered by was your use of the word "assuming" in a context where we don't need to assume anything because we know, but that's another Freudian interpretation which you'll probably call a stretch (and maybe rightly, I don't know).

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

...Or I'd stayed up till the dawn and lost my train of thought due to being exhausted. If I'd thought it was no longer important or relevant, I wouldn't have posted it. You're reaching a bit here.

Fair point.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh my cupcakes. I was reading through the thread trying to get a bead on Pitch when I saw this post. And then I realized....

Originally Posted by tiny old me

Pitch and I really need to stop agreeing. And yes, I'm using the word creepy again, 'cause it's getting to those levels.

Have I been tricked by Mr. Wolfgreeable all this time?

[satansaloser2005]

I am going to bed now. With any luck, I'll wake up in time to vote the wolf.

[Coppermirror]

I ended up analysing Pitch's vote for me first, as it'll help me compare him and Shasta later.

Pitch's progression towards voting for me

Was Pitch a paranoid innocent falling into a trap, or a wolf trying to increase his odds of victory by feigning the progression of suspicion over the Day, or frightened by me failing to rule him out completely in my first post of the Day?

Post #192, where he replies to my first post of the day.
- points out that G55 came to see him as more innocent over the course of the Day.
- says that Sally is a good Pitchwolf spotter.
- thinks that a Shastawolf might find Sally easier to persuade
- thinks that I might be a wolf trying to keep options open over who to frame

Post #195, responding to Sally
- thinks that a Shastawolf might be calmer now because of there being no Seer around.
- says he is no longer willing to cut me any slack because

Originally Posted by Pitch

Whether or not she's really new to the Downs (see Eomer's speculation yesterDay), she's clearly not new to the game as per her posting, so I'm not giving her passes anymore because "a first-timer wouldn't have done that".

Now, this sounds a bit odd to me. What did he mean by that? In fact, Pitch, if you're around before deadline I would like you to explain what you meant. What "clearly not new to the game as per her posting"?

If you're talking about yesterDay when I mentioned that I'd read lots of old games at the Downs, it's odd that that would change your mind. Because that was not the first time I'd mentioned that fact. I mentioned it on Day 2, and I also mentioned it on this game's admin thread shortly after I signed up.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror on Day 2

I've read old stories about other villages with werewolves in them, of course...and a few of them have descendants in this very village. But really, those are very old stories. (It doesn't help me much to know how someone might react back in 2006!)

I don't know whether you're an innocent who has been carelessly overlooking facts, or a wolf using that as a pretext for a sudden change in opinion. If it's the former and that's why you voted for me, it's very bad luck that I wasn't around to give you further info on that.

Now looking at post #203...and wow, until reading it properly now I had not realised how bad Pitch's logic was in it. Pitch, if you're an innocent and such shoddy reasoning here causes the village to lose the game (because now it can only be a tie), I'm going to be very annoyed with you once it's over.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

But we think we've just found something, my precious:

But you aren't a wolf, are you? So you couldn't have killed her anyway, and whether or not you would have been daft to do so has nothing at all to do with the price of milk, right? Except if you are a wolf and did kill her because we'd never think you did (but gave yourself away here).

What. You should have been able to realise that I was talking about what the wolf would want other villagers to think I would have done.

I'll spell this out for you slowly.

I was wondering whether the wolf had taken out G55 in order to more easily cast suspicion on me. Because with G55 around, who more or less trusted me (as much as you can a non-known innocent), it would be much more difficult for either you or Shasta (of whom I know for certain one is the wolf) to wage a successful campaign to get me lynched. That is, trying to persuade the innocents remaining that I'm a wolf.

However, there is a big flaw in their plan, if that is the case. That being that if I were a wolf, which is what the wolf would like to persuade the innocent villagers of, I would have to be a total fool to get rid of G55. So I wondered if maybe their goal was not to put suspicion onto me after all, but some other goal.

That is what I was saying. You, apparently, could not follow that without thinking "She considered the hypothetical actions of what would be sensible for her to do as a wolf! That means she's a wolf!". No. Bad Pitchwife, bad!

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And then there's this:

And I voiced more suspicion of Shasta than of you yesterDay, making it clear that my choice who to vote was between Eomer and Shasta. So we end up toDay with Cop, Shasta and the two players Cop considers most likely to vote Shasta. Isn't that an amazing coincidence?

Hmm...thank goodness, your logic improved a little here. The logic above was offensively bad. But this is still not good logic. If I were a wolf, I would have had no need to have got rid of G55 in the first place.

Well, Pitch, you have certainly made it hard for me to analyse whether your vote for me was the vote of an innocent or a wolf. I was expecting that if you were a wolf you would have given reasons which seemed sensible on the face of it but have a false premise. Instead you come out with what looks to me to be a load of rubbish based upon fine wording, casting aside from consideration the reasons you didn't consider me suspicious before. What am I to make of this?

At least your second reason (which does not appear to be your main one) has some more substance. If you're a wolf, that is probably what you killed G55 hoping that the village would think. If Shasta is, that is probably what he was hoping you would think.

Edit: cross-posted twice with Shasta.

[Coppermirror]

Case against Pitchwolf

Day 1 - nothing, as he wasn't here.
However, Nessa voted for him, expecting him to be mod-fired. Nobody else would have voted for him. Was it a throwaway vote against an innocent, or a vote so she could say "I voted for a wolf!" later?

Day 2
- Chatted with Inzil about Nessa before the Seer-revelation.
- Voted for Kitanna.
I wasn't expecting the voting record on Day 2 to be very useful. A sensible wolf would vote Inzil in order to seem less suspicious later on. On the other hand, Pitch might have been relying upon doing the opposite of the sensible thing in order to appear less suspicious.
- Thought that Inzil was the Seer, initially. (Although he is not the only one who thought that - Sally did too.)
- Corrected Inzil about Shasta.
Yes, yesterDay I thought this was evidence of his innocence. But paranoia has set in, and I'm sure a Pitchwolf would be very happy to correct an Inzilwolf on that.

Day 3
- Did an analysis of each person. Most suspicious of Eomer and Shasta.

Day 4
- Was tetchy in response to a typo by me saying I'd do an "analysis of Pitchwolf" rather than an "analysis of a Pitchwolf"; said that people would get the wrong impression and think that my mind was already made up. Even though in the same paragraph, I said that I still suspected Shasta the most.
- Might be showing signs of feeling troubled by me backing off slightly from 100% definitely voting for Shasta.
- Used what I find spectacularly bad reasoning as his reason for voting for me.

It seemed rushed and based (a) on odd, flimsy logic, and (b) based on the premise that if I were a wolf I would gain something from G55's death, which is not correct. This makes it seem to me as if he realised I might not be as 100% set on voting for Shasta as he was the previous night, and panicked a bit.

Re the killing of G55,

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

If we have a Pitchwolf, it might be that having an unknown (Sally) was preferable to having someone who was unlikely to vote Cop and considered Pitch to be a more likely wolf than me. Had Sally been killed, a Pitchwolf would have likely been facing a vote from G55 (and possibly a self-preservation one from me, as well, considering Cop's likely vote for me.)

this states the possible reasons for Pitch to kill her rather than Sally.

Case against Shastawolf

Day 1
- Gave the first vote for Nessawolf, before she made her suspicious Pitch vote. Could have been a wolf-on-wolf vote; it was by no means certain at that point that anyone else would be voting for her.

Day 2
- Inzil implied incorrectly that Shasta voted for Nessa after her vote for Pitch rather than before. This could be a subtle attempt to protect Shasta.
However...he could probably expect us to remember what actually happened. Also, Pitchwife jumped in to pick him up on that. I had taken that as a sign of Pitch's innocence, but now it's down to the point of Shasta vs Pitch, I'm not sure I like using the same bit of evidence to say one is innocent and one's guilty, especially when the evidence is based on a statement from Inzilwolf.

Day 3
- Did not give his opinions of Eomer and Pitch on when I asked him to.
- Makes a case against me and only me; if he's a wolf, that was a good time in which to do so, before the final Day.
- Innocent-Eomer found him more suspicious than Pitch.

Day 4

Re the killing of G55, if we have Shastawolf, he may have thought that Sally would be more likely to trust him. His odds were fairly bad in a hypothetical toDay with G55 alive, as I think that he would have been much more likely to get a vote from Pitchwife. He would have known that unless things changed somehow, he would be very likely to get a vote from me.

So...to sum this up, I think that both a Shastawolf and a Pitchwolf would have a reason to keep Sally around. Shasta may have a better reason, but Pitch was also in a spot of bother having G55 around who suspected him more than Shasta. They would both gain from this move.

Pitch's vote for me and his reasons for it make me feel very suspicious of him. His actions are consistent with a wolf getting rattled toDay and making some bad leaps of logic as a result of it. However, he must have known that doing so would look very suspicious. He could also be a panicked, rushed innocent.

Shasta has stayed mostly calm, has spoken up a little more toDay. However, even though he suspects me a lot for reasons for reasons I find a bit shaky, he's realised that if I were a wolf I don't have anything to gain from G55 being killed. His progression of thought toDay seems more logical than Pitch's. But I find myself feeling much more suspicious of him while reading his posts than I do Pitchwife.

I would really like to hear from Sally and see if she has more any insight. If I was forced to vote right now, I would probably stick to my guns and vote for Shasta. But Pitch has been acting suspiciously toDay too.

[Coppermirror]

Shasta, would you mind giving us your current suspicions and what vote you think you may be likely to place later?

My suspicions are as outlined above, and I'm waiting to see what Sally thinks. She's familiar with both you and Pitch from previous games, and is the only person I can trust for certain out of the current village. It's probably best for the two of us non-known-innocents who have yet to cast votes to give our suspicions before we find out what she thinks. That will give more information to work with.

[Coppermirror]

There's about 45 minutes until the deadline, isn't there?

I really hope that Sally is here soon enough to be able to read everything and decide on an informed vote. If she isn't here in time for that, I can no longer rely on her analysis and knowledge of the players based on previous games. That does not make me a happy camper.

My planned vote from earlier is not as firm as before, given that Shasta has gone through the posts and come to the conclusions I would expect an innocent to come to. Am I really going to be in the situation of being mostly sure of my vote throughout the day right up until the last hour?

[Coppermirror]

15 minutes to go.

If Sally does not show up in the next ten minutes, I'll have no option but to vote for Pitch and hope it's him.

Edit: Cross-posted with Shasta.

[Coppermirror]

It looks as if I'll be voting Pitch, then. I am much more suspicious of him now than I was earlier on, so I don't feel too bad about that vote.

Even if Sally shows up now, unless she's got something very dramatic to say ("This thing Shasta says proves he's 100% wolf!") then I don't think I can rely on her, since she probably hasn't had time to read the thread.

So, Shasta. Looks as if I'll be trusting you.

Edit: cross-posted with Sally

[Coppermirror]

I'll set this up in another window just in case time runs out. Ready to post this if the deadlines gets too close...

++Pitchwife

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'm going to have to go back and read more, but given Cop's fixation on voting me today should Eomer turn out innocent, and the fact that she's still alive today, almost makes me think we have a Pitchwolf.

Forgive me for saying so myself (and maybe shrinking your head a couple of inches in the process), but this is crappy reasoning. Didn't you just say yourself that if not Gal55, Sally would have been the sensible kill-choice? Do you seriously want me (or anybody else) to think that you as a wolf would have killed Cop, leaving two known innocents alive? For if not, the fact that she wasn't killed toNight doesn't prove zip.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

But I can't say that with any surety, as I haven't looked at him at all yet.

Yes, I've noticed that and wondered about it, because I fully expected to be torn to shreds for my support of Zil; it was rather unlike you to let that pass, but I suppose it was due to time constraints and not because you didn't yet know whether you'd need me as ally or lynchmeat.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Back momentarily -

Originally Posted by Pitch

Do you seriously want me (or anybody else) to think that you as a wolf would have killed Cop, leaving two known innocents alive? For if not, the fact that she wasn't killed toNight doesn't prove zip.

Uh. No? I don't believe I said anything like that. What I meant was, my first reaction was that having Cop alive, with her stated intention to vote me today, would be a lovely situation for a Pitchwolf to be in toDay.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Uh. No? I don't believe I said anything like that. What I meant was, my first reaction was that having Cop alive, with her stated intention to vote me today, would be a lovely situation for a Pitchwolf to be in toDay.

OK, if you put it like that, of course it would; except she's getting Pitchwolf-paranoia too now and may well change her mind.
(Actually, now you mention it, I predict that whoever I end up voting will convince the other ordos that I'm the wolf -> instant wolf victory. Wouldn't that be fun?)

Anyone else around?

[Coppermirror]

Why did the wolf choose G55 last Night?

Pitch or Shasta

There is no way that the wolf would have killed whichever out of Pitch or Shasta is innocent. G55 and I were reasonably sure of each other's innocence and would without a doubt have voted for the one remaining. At very best, they could have tried persuading Sally into making the vote a tie. Not sensible.

Me

There is absolutely no way any wolf with half a brain would have killed me last Night. The wolf's best strategy would be to increase the number of genuine suspects from 2 to 3. That means going after either me or G55, and nobody had any real suspicions of G55.

Of particular note yesterDay:
- Shasta wrote only one analysis yesterDay, and that was of me, and could have implied that he would like to have voted for me but thought it would be wasted.
- Pitch went through all of the candidates. He decided I was probably innocent based on my vote patterns, chalking up the wording he found suspicious to newbieness.

This means that, potentially, the Pitchwolf/Shastawolf could have thought there's a good chance of (a) persuading the innocent Pitch/Shasta, or (b) could have thought that there's enough of a possibility of the other one suspecting me that they could use the confusion to their benefit.

However, realistically, they would have had much less of a chance to pull that off if G55, who did not suspect me seriously, was around.

If it's Shasta, the move of getting rid of G55 has worked perfectly. If it's Pitch, I'm not so sure.

YesterDay, Pitch suspected Eomer-innocent and Shasta. For him to suddenly switch to me as his target to the extent of voting for me, he should surely have some reasoning for this. Therefore, if I examine his reasoning carefully, I should have a chance of determining whether he's an innocent who has been struck by paranoia and a Shastawolf's plan, or a Pitchwolf who either got scared after seeing in my first post this Day that I hadn't totally ruled him out, or more likely had decided to pretend to change his opinion over the course of the Day to capitalise on Shasta's possible suspicion of me yesterDay. Not sure how Sally would fit into that.

So...let's look at what would have happened toDay if Sally had been the one killed, compared to what really happened.

Probable situation if Sally had been killed:
One near-guaranteed vote Shasta from me.
A probable Shasta vote from Pitchwife
A probable Pitchwife vote from Shasta?
An vote for either Shasta or Pitch from G55 (who yesterDay found Pitch the more suspicious of the two).

If we have a Shastawolf, the situation is very bad for him, because there's still a possibility that G55 will vote for him, even if she didn't suspect him so much yesterDay. At the very best for him, it would be a tie with 50-50 odds.

If it's a Pitchwolf, the situation is slightly better, but still not great. The worst situation for him is a tie. But G55 was suspicious of him, and she might have been able to persuade me of that too.

Neither of those situations is particularly good for the wolf. I'm inclined to think that a Shasta-wolf has the most to gain statistically from killing G55 and shaking the village up. Hmm. I've still got less info out of this analysis than I'd hoped. Now, onto an overall analysis of Shasta and Pitch.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Pitch

Sure. What I was bothered by was your use of the word "assuming" in a context where we don't need to assume anything because we know

You're leaving out my use of the word "obviously", so yes, this is a stretch. However, I feel like this is just turning into an unneeded grammar lesson.

Originally Posted by Pitch

So we end up toDay with Cop, Shasta and the two players Cop considers most likely to vote Shasta. Isn't that an amazing coincidence?

So you're saying a Copwolf considered Sally more likely than G55 to vote for me? I'll have to go back and look at that.

Originally Posted by Sally

Wouldn't it be hilarious if it was me?

Well, it would certainly explain the stench.

Originally Posted by Sally

His jab at Dun here feels to me like a Wolfsicle playing ball with his mate. "That's not how the game is supposed to be played" strikes me as an in-joke between wolves.

I said that in reference to me saying "I could vote you because I don't like you" in reference to Inzil saying "I could vote for Shasta for... being Shasta." It's pretty well documented that Inzil and I tend to have a cordial, but acrimonious relationship when playing WW.

Originally Posted by Sally

Now his #131....that's an interesting one. He says, flat out, that tying the vote would be silly.

And it would have been silly. If you're going to use that remark as a reason to suspect me, then you've got to go all the way with it -

Originally Posted by Pitch

I briefly considered being a dadaist and voting Sally or myself, but not seriously, as both would be stupid.

Originally Posted by Sally

In his #165 he actually replies to me asking him to tell me he's not a wolf. I....am not entirely sure an innocent Shasta would bother to reply to that statement.

I always think you're important enough to respond to, dearie. *winks*

Originally Posted by Sally

The start of his last vote post (and it will be his last, regardless) is not remotely funny at this stage of the game. I am actually waiting for the wolf to somehow manage to get me lynched, because I'm still not sure why I'm alive. He makes a fairly decent point about the convenience of who's left, except he's wrong (at least based on the information Cop would have had last Night): I had said I didn't want to vote Shasta.

This goes back to what I said about Pitch above.

Originally Posted by Cop

I don't see your logic for how not killing you would benefit me greatly. If I had been a wolf, I would certainly not have killed G55. Why would I kill someone who was extremely unlikely to vote for me, in order to try to persuade you, who I know next to nothing about and have hardly spoken to in this game, not to vote for me? Makes no sense. Nay, Sally, your suggestion that a hypothetical wolf-me would do such a thing, where there would be no gain in it for me, is a grievous insult.

The thing about defenses like this is that they are, while very well written, ultimately meaningless. You can say "as a wolf, I would have/would not have done X", but there's no way for the rest of us to know that. Even moreso since this is your first game with us, which means we've never seen you work as a wolf.

Originally Posted by Cop

There is no way that the wolf would have killed whichever out of Pitch or Shasta is innocent. G55 and I were reasonably sure of each other's innocence and would without a doubt have voted for the one remaining. At very best, they could have tried persuading Sally into making the vote a tie. Not sensible.

I don't not buy this, necessarily, but I think you're being far too general with your "without a doubt". Unless you're the Seer (you're not), it's never wise to be 100% sure about anyone's innocence or guilt.

Originally Posted by Cop

There is absolutely no way any wolf with half a brain would have killed me last Night. The wolf's best strategy would be to increase the number of genuine suspects from 2 to 3. That means going after either me or G55, and nobody had any real suspicions of G55.

No it doesn't. If the wolf's best strategy is to increase the number of suspects from two to three, then that means going after Sally, the known innocent player.

Originally Posted by Cop

Shasta wrote only one analysis yesterDay, and that was of me, and could have implied that he would like to have voted for me but thought it would be wasted.

Haha, I thought I flat-out said that. Through my analysis of you yesterday, you came up as suspicious to me. And honestly, nothing that's happened yet has done anything to decrease that, but Pitch's early vote and flip-flop on you, in relation to my stance from yesterday (and the fact that his early vote hasn't been jumped on yet, even though everyone has posted) make me hesitate.

Originally Posted by Cop

(b) could have thought that there's enough of a possibility of the other one suspecting me that they could use the confusion to their benefit.

This, if we do have a Pitchwolf, is something I could agree with.

Originally Posted by Cop

Probable situation if Sally had been killed:
One near-guaranteed vote Shasta from me.
A probable Shasta vote from Pitchwife
A probable Pitchwife vote from Shasta?
An vote for either Shasta or Pitch from G55 (who yesterDay found Pitch the more suspicious of the two).

Yesterday, I was more suspicious of you than I was of Pitch.