Grimoire thread, post #190
Chances of lynching wolves, based on the first 31 games played:
Day 1: 29% (sample size: 34)
Day 2: 31% (36)
Day 3: 43% (40)
Day 4: 35% (34)
Day 5: 34% (29)
Day 6: 29% (17)
Day 7: 55% (11)
Day 8: 0% (3)
All better than the random 25% we have, and it looks even better considering that most villages have a smaller wolf ratio than ours.
Now I'm itching to turn these into confidence intervals.
But the sample sizes are small, so the result would probably not be very good. Maybe if I compiled it for
all games played, but do I really want to do that?
