Ten Year Anniversary Game: Living Thread - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Macalaure · 06-02-2015, 01:21 PM

Grimoire thread, post #190

Chances of lynching wolves, based on the first 31 games played:
Day 1: 29% (sample size: 34)
Day 2: 31% (36)
Day 3: 43% (40)
Day 4: 35% (34)
Day 5: 34% (29)
Day 6: 29% (17)
Day 7: 55% (11)
Day 8: 0% (3)

All better than the random 25% we have, and it looks even better considering that most villages have a smaller wolf ratio than ours.

Now I'm itching to turn these into confidence intervals.

But the sample sizes are small, so the result would probably not be very good. Maybe if I compiled it for all games played, but do I really want to do that?

06-02-2015, 01:21 PM	#11
Macalaure Fading Fëanorion Join Date: Mar 2006 Location: into the flood again Posts: 2,911	Alright, I dug it up... Grimoire thread, post #190 Chances of lynching wolves, based on the first 31 games played: Day 1: 29% (sample size: 34) Day 2: 31% (36) Day 3: 43% (40) Day 4: 35% (34) Day 5: 34% (29) Day 6: 29% (17) Day 7: 55% (11) Day 8: 0% (3) All better than the random 25% we have, and it looks even better considering that most villages have a smaller wolf ratio than ours. Now I'm itching to turn these into confidence intervals. But the sample sizes are small, so the result would probably not be very good. Maybe if I compiled it for all games played, but do I really want to do that? Last edited by Macalaure; 06-02-2015 at 01:24 PM. Reason: punktshooayshun