[Legate of Amon Lanc]

I sense... death in this place. I hear foul creatures about.

But so great to be back in WW, and I must say, quite a change with this ridiculously lively and overposted thread... so let's get to it.

Originally Posted by Loslote

Then again, it seems to me that the best way to set the two packs against each other is simply to kill one wolf from either pack - then the pack which is down a member will by necessity switch its focus from the Gifteds to the other pack, since the only way for them to win would be to kill at least two members of the other pack. Whether or not the other pack switched focus, too - though I think they would soon enough - we would have a bit of a reprieve. Plus, to have two wolves actively and jointly targeting the others would be much more obvious than to have three wolves coasting in the background.

To get back to my point, I think probably we should take any chance we can to bag a wolf, since doing so would not only wittle down the pack numbers, but would also help turn the Night kills away from our Gifteds and towards the other pack. The question is, I guess, is it better statistically to have the chance to potentially turn the Night kills away from the Gifteds, or to avoid the risk that we ourselves might kill a Gifted by mistake? If we kill the Seer Day 1, we're in huge trouble, but I suppose they can still do some good in the Dead Thread. If we kill a wolf, we've gained a lot, and I might be hugely naive here, but I feel like they are less of a threat in the Dead Thread than in the Living Thread. So I would say that I personally think a Day 1 lynch is worth the risk, but that's kind of subjective, and I would definitely like to see other peoples' perspectives.

I think all in all, this game - at least before we get the hang of it - is going to be such a chaos, that accidentally lynching a Gifted when wishing to lynch a Wolf is about as probable as Wolves killing Wolves from other pack even if they are aiming for Gifted, and so on. Basically at this stage, everyone is probably freaked out equally.

But the main power, in my opinion, lies in the Dead thread. Because we know nothing of the roles upon lynching, as the phantom has so lovelily illustrated, it is hard to form opinions even in regards to whether we were right or wrong. But with the amount of Wolves around and all, we are bound to hit something, and with the amount of Night kills, everything should probably gather up speed in just a couple of Days.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

First, I think this is a crucial point. The wolves can (and probably will) engage in completely genuine wolf-hunting during Day phases, which means that we have to think differently than we would in a normal game; we have wolves who don't know everyone's alignment and who have a good motive to hunt bad guys too. That means they're not by default lying when they say they suspect someone, so a fake-looking case alone is not as strong a sign of wolfishness as it usually is. To make things even more muddled, looking at potential pack behaviour could point to the Lovers just as well. There are still the Night kills for clues, I suppose, but I personally never trusted them much, there's too much pure guesswork involved - especially in a game where the wolf packs might have an interest in framing each other as well as the villagers. I foresee a headache.

I understand where you are coming from, but I'd say, personally, that there still is a difference. Really, from my experience, whenever one is playing a Wolf, whatever the circumstances, there is a psychological difference. They may aim to more or less hunt the other pack, but they still have to stick together, avoid getting lynched themselves (of which normal Ordos usually still tend to be a bit more carefree) and so on. As for pack behavior and Lovers, agreed, even though at least the Lovers (resp one of them) come back.

But all in all, I'd say this point about "it being a headache" is not really much of a point, rather an empty complaint. We still do what we do, there are ways to catch Wolves, so I wouldn't totally negate this.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I see a small hitch here. How can we believe anyone's claim if no roles are revealed upon death? There's no way of checking a claim, so basically we could have Seers revealing left, right and centre with no one able to verify which one is telling the truth - or, at least, no one but a resurrected dead person, and even that ony about whoever the dead happen to have checked.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Would a WW fake reveal in this contest? If there is a Seer counter then I guess the Ranger would have to protect both that night (ha ha, protecting a WW from the other team), but soon enough they'd both be dead (because the other pack doesn't know which is real) and thus soon enough the dead thread could tell us which Seer was real.
I simply post "Tomorrow I will cast a throwaway vote. If So-And-So was the real Seer, give me a bonus vote tomorrow", the Dead check So-And-So's true identity and then either give or don't give me the bonus vote according to what they found. Bang. We know which Seer was real and what the real Seer dreams were, not to mention the false-reveal WW is now dead which means the diminished pack has to gun for the other pack to avoid losing because they're already down one Wolf.

And if BOTH packs try a counter-reveal, even better, because we'd have a dent into both packs.

Is that right?

That extra vote idea sounds doable, of course on the account of that you don't have the Dead thread just full of Wolves (from the same pack, who would coordinate... so it shouldn't happen, in fact). So yeah. But in any case, it shouldn't happen in the first place. I really think Seer-revealing is potentially dangerous, still. I mean, if there's suddenly a reveal of seven "Seers", everyone can lynch every single "Seer" just for good measure (and the Wolves, I am sure, would take care of some of the rest). In any case, Wolves still do not want to end up lynched. No matter that the village can't know what you are, you still don't want to be dead. Dead packs don't win, even in a game that is all about death.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Basically, we purposefully tie the vote every day and let the Dead decide who gets the bonus vote (and thus who dies). It's possible that it would be a good tactic (because the Dead will always know more than the living as they have access to the roles of the Dead). So basically we just debate which two to place on the chopping block and let the Dead call the shots. I mean, simple odds certainly say that we can trust the dead since 2/3 of them will be Wolf kills (thus unlikely to be Wolves). Plus we'll probably lynch a non-Wolf today.

Anyway, I don't know if it's even realistic to do what I'm talking about. Just putting it out there. Anyone else think about that option?

I am not sure if I am following, all the maths and statistics goes completely over my head. Besides, I am not sure if a village this big is... manageable. You might just as well end up with Wolves (either pack or rather both) manipulating the vote from inside the village itself.

(x-posted with TP)