![]() |
![]() |
Visit The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page |
|
![]() |
#1 | ||
Leaf-clad Lady
|
A couple of things.
Quote:
Quote:
EDIT: x-ed with two Lotties! <3
__________________
"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." Last edited by A Little Green; 06-02-2015 at 12:50 AM. Reason: typo |
||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#2 | |||
Beloved Shadow
|
![]() Quote:
*lynch* Okay, so... Was that a good lynch? Guess I'll find out in a couple days... ![]() Quote:
Quote:
Basically, we purposefully tie the vote every day and let the Dead decide who gets the bonus vote (and thus who dies). It's possible that it would be a good tactic (because the Dead will always know more than the living as they have access to the roles of the Dead). So basically we just debate which two to place on the chopping block and let the Dead call the shots. I mean, simple odds certainly say that we can trust the dead since 2/3 of them will be Wolf kills (thus unlikely to be Wolves). Plus we'll probably lynch a non-Wolf today. Anyway, I don't know if it's even realistic to do what I'm talking about. Just putting it out there. Anyone else think about that option?
__________________
the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
|||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#3 | ||
Beloved Shadow
|
![]() Quote:
Quote:
I simply post "Tomorrow I will cast a throwaway vote. If So-And-So was the real Seer, give me a bonus vote tomorrow", the Dead check So-And-So's true identity and then either give or don't give me the bonus vote according to what they found. Bang. We know which Seer was real and what the real Seer dreams were, not to mention the false-reveal WW is now dead which means the diminished pack has to gun for the other pack to avoid losing because they're already down one Wolf. And if BOTH packs try a counter-reveal, even better, because we'd have a dent into both packs. Is that right?
__________________
the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#4 | ||
The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
![]() ![]() ![]() |
Quote:
Quote:
__________________
I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
|
||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#5 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
![]() ![]() |
![]()
This is what happens when you don't get first word in. Y'all have all but covered my essay into the three-party dynamic of this village.
![]() Oh, hi Mum. ![]()
__________________
フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#6 | |
Beloved Shadow
|
![]() Quote:
And if there is a majority of Baddies in the Dead Thread, then I'd say we don't need any help because that would mean we are winning handily at that point. I mean, as long as we give the Dead good options I don't see why they wouldn't cooperate and help us. For instance, if we want to ask them to test the good/bad-ness of the last person we lynched, we just do something like this- 1) Players Y and Z agree to cast throwaway votes for two people not on the chopping block. 2) Tell Dead "If you find player X guilty give your bonus to player Y, if innocent give it to player Z. If you give it to neither of them then that is your right and we won't make assumptions." That way if the Dead know something even more important and feel their bonus vote is needed to make the lynch go the right way they do not feel forced to follow our plan. Has anyone else thought about this- passing messages between the Living and Dead? Any other ideas for how to do it? I think it's too useful not to consider.
__________________
the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#7 | |
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
Quote:
Otherwise, I think the main plothole in this is that the WWs could manipulate the Dead thread (at least when there are more of them, and since they can PM between each other). Then again, it's really a problem, if you have already two Wolves of one pack among the Dead, it's not really a good situation for them. Again, once the Dead thread gets populated by, say, 6 people (probably just a couple of days), majorities and such aren't really much of an issue there. The other problem being also, the Dead, if I got it right, do not really learn 100% the identity of someone. (Although roughly.) But also, if, using your mechanic, we are asking about the identity of a player we lynched just yesterDay, they won't yet know about the player's real identity, since they haven't revealed it yet either. So in fact, that way, we'd probably get any info "back from the grave" only in a couple of Days. Otherwise we might just get an opinion of the Dead, which isn't probably that much better than that of the Living (of course depending on circumstances). I'd rather be in favour of the mechanic "yo Dead, give your extra vote to one of the people our village is considering, or if you have a Seer among you or somesuch who knows something, then please give an out-of-the-blue vote." Or, to formulate it differently: "Please refrain from giving a vote to a person who is not the village's candidate for lynching, except if you know that random person X should be lynched in your opinion. That way we'll notice that while the village was bickering about whether to lynch Y or Z, you suddenly randomly voted X, so we know we'd better look at X." And then again, even that is still a bit problematic, since the Dead thread has the same DL as the Living, so the voting has to take place simultaneoustly at least a bit - I doubt everyone will be at the Dead thread voting only just at the DL. But yeah, it is probably easier to coordinate than on the Living thread, sure.
__________________
"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#8 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
|
Quote:
On the plus side, the division between the wolves does at least mean they can't steer the lynch as easily as if it were one pack of six. Quote:
Edit:x'd with Green at #24.
__________________
"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#9 | |||||
A Voice That Gainsayeth
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: In that far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 7,431
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() |
I sense... death in this place. I hear foul creatures about.
But so great to be back in WW, and I must say, quite a change with this ridiculously lively and overposted thread... so let's get to it. Quote:
But the main power, in my opinion, lies in the Dead thread. Because we know nothing of the roles upon lynching, as the phantom has so lovelily illustrated, it is hard to form opinions even in regards to whether we were right or wrong. But with the amount of Wolves around and all, we are bound to hit something, and with the amount of Night kills, everything should probably gather up speed in just a couple of Days. Quote:
But all in all, I'd say this point about "it being a headache" is not really much of a point, rather an empty complaint. We still do what we do, there are ways to catch Wolves, so I wouldn't totally negate this. Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
(x-posted with TP)
__________________
"Should the story say 'he ate bread,' the dramatic producer can only show 'a piece of bread' according to his taste or fancy, but the hearer of the story will think of bread in general and picture it in some form of his own." -On Fairy-Stories |
|||||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#10 |
Beloved Shadow
|
![]()
Just to flesh out the Living-Dead communication thing... (and I see you're posting again on this very matter, Legate)
When someone is lynched they are then dead for the following night, meaning the Dead can check the lynch victim immediately and give us results (via the bonus vote) the following day. Let's say we lynch Lottie and ask for the Dead to check her. The next day the leading vote receivers partway through are clearly McCaber and Legate, with Rikae, Morm, and Boro casting votes for Legate, and Nerwen, Green, and Eomer casting votes for McCaber. We can then tell the Dead thread, "If Lottie was evil give your bonus vote to Rikae or Nerwen, if she was innocent give it to Morm or Green, if you didn't check her give your bonus vote to someone else. That way the Dead can impact the voting in any way they wish (push the lynch toward either of the two leaders) and simultaneously give us the information they gained about Lottie's role. If they give the bonus to Rikae then Lottie was evil and they wanted to lynch Legate over McCaber. If they give the bonus to Nerwen then Lottie is evil and McCaber is who they want to lynch. If they didn't check Lottie at all but want to help lynch McCaber then they give their bonus to Eomer. If they didn't check Lottie and don't want to lynch either candidate they give their bonus to someone else hinting that maybe that person's suspicions matched their own. Etc. First and foremost I think we need to tentatively place some trust in the dead (because they will almost certainly be 50% or more innocent). Second we need to give them opportunities to pass info to us without restricting them too much (give them options), because if we reduce the Dead to being our servants and ordering them around I think that would kind of ruin the fun for them.
__________________
the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#11 |
Beloved Shadow
|
![]()
All this Dead bonus vote stuff aside, I mainly just don't want the Seer or Ranger to die early. The double-dream and double-protect is amazing! Just as the double-kill reduces the population quickly, the double-dreams reduces the lynchable population quickly. We need to keep our eyes on the break-points of various days (e.g. with X number of players left, if the Seer has Y number of dreams under his belt it would be efficient to reveal now).
I'm not sure what to think about the Lovers. Even if they knew who they were, would the WWs even attempt to off them with the Seer and Ranger still alive? Though the back-from-dead could be quite nice later in the game (so an early kill would negate this possibility), I think the Baddies fear the back-from-dead less than a living Seer/Ranger. Now the Hunter... When I've been a WW I tend to avoid the Hunter like a landmine, because one shoot-from-the-hip Hunter kill can totally bring a solid Baddie squad crashing down. But in this game it's probably worth it to off the Hunter as soon as possible because odds are he'll kill an innocent. If you leave the Hunter alive a couple days the odds are probably worse for the WWs (plus he'll have more to go on), so as far as intentions go, I figure they'll attempt to kill him early or not at all (unless they're quite certain he has an incorrect pick in mind). Anyway, it's gotten so late that it's changed into early. I need a bit of rest....
__________________
the phantom has posted.
This thread is now important. |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#12 |
Illusionary Holbytla
Join Date: Dec 2003
Posts: 7,547
![]() |
A couple thoughts before I go quiet again for most of the day. (For the record, even if you don't hear from me for a while, I will be back to vote before the deadline - can definitely be here within a half hour of it.)
I like the idea of deliberately tying the vote today, if possible. A couple thoughts: 1) It seems likely enough that for some reason we don't pull it off (wolves screw it up, accidental cross-posting, someone doesn't vote) - so we should make a deliberate choice of our possible victims. 2) In order to prevent total chaos at the end, what if we orchestrated the vote (these players vote for this person, those players vote for that). Any deviance from this strategy could also be indicative of a non-cooperative WW (or a lover, I guess). 3) What if we aimed for a three (or even four) way tie? That way even if someone doesn't vote as planned and we don't get a three-way tie, we might still get a two-way tie which is all that is actually necessary. 4) As far as victim choice - sort of a shot in the dark anyway - do we go random? Ask for volunteers (at least we don't get a gifted - but then I guess it narrows the wolves' choice for who is gifted, so maybe that's a poor strategy)? Might as well pick Nilp since he's already got a vote? |
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#13 |
Scion of The Faithful
Join Date: Apr 2003
Location: The brink, where hope and despair are akin. [The Philippines]
Posts: 5,312
![]() ![]() |
![]()
I'm always cool with getting a few more votes.
![]() Anyway, long day, scattered thoughts, many of which has already been commented upon, so I'll say my 'substantive' piece before taking a nap and hoping to wake up at a proper time. Re the three-party dynamic's effect on gifted reveals: With competing wolf parties, they will be unsure as to how to deal with a real gifted reveal. For example, both parties might end up wasting their kill on a single target (or less likely, end up not killing the gifted because they expected the other Pack to do so.)Re lynch/NIGHT kill analysis: For obvious reasons, voting analyses (my weapon of choice--or rather, the weapon I use because I have no choice) are quite useless, at least in the opening fog-of-war stage of the game.My scattered thoughts are petering out. I'll be back when my brain cells stop screaming at me. _____ *As someone who has watched No Game No Life twice (even being an editor for the first two volumes of the novel's English translation), and as someone who has read the Wikipedia article on Nash equilibrium, I believe I am qualified to game-theorise.
__________________
フェンリス鴨 (Fenrisu Kamo) The plot, cut, defeated. I intend to copy this sig forever - so far so good...
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#14 | |||
Fading Fëanorion
Join Date: Mar 2006
Location: into the flood again
Posts: 2,911
![]() ![]() ![]() |
I had a crazy long post detailing why all those strategies above won't work, but then I realized it was really just an overblown series of quoting and arguing, so I scrapped it. Here's the key points, though.
We have a 25% chance to lynch a wolf toDay (6 in 24) If we don't, each pack has a 15% chance to kill another wolf at night (3 in 20): P(A)+P(B)-P(A)*P(B)=27.75%. Even by pure chance, we're actually quite likely to receive some help from the wolves at killing wolves. Not implying, of course, that this means we can be lazy, and definitely not implying that we should tie our votes and not lynch. (In a village of 24, with 6 baddies, and later with an unpredictable extra vote? Impossible to orchestrate. Seriously, people.) All this trying to arrange an information flow with the dead... elaborate stuff like that never works. Unless a choice is obvious, you always have some people who vote right at the deadline or didn't get a chance to read everything and vote uninformed. Things get messed up, even without revealed or unrevealed baddies in both threads trying to mess with it intentionally. The dead should give their extra vote to either A: someone they have reason to believe is innocent; or B: someone who has voted for someone they have reason to believe is guilty. This will give us a solid bit of information to go on, actually. Fake reveals can be a problem. With no immediate knowledge of the role upon death, it's easier to pull off. Anyone remember how nobody believed Nogrod was the seer all game last time? And that was without a contestant (though with cobblers). Then again, would a wolf dare it, knowing that the real beneficiary is the other wolf pack? Don't have too much faith in the roles that can return from the dead. It can only happen twice at most, and if the timing is off (as it was last time), it can end up much more unhelpful than hoped. One question for the mod: Will the narrations state which unfortunate soul got killed by which wolf pack? Or was this stated somewhere and I overlooked it? If it is not clear to the village, then the wolves would have extra knowledge and be more adept at killing the other pack than we are. An uncomfortable thought. Quote:
Sorry for being all negative, but all those Day1 strategies... Sweet summer children! No plan survives contact with werewolves. ![]() These points I did like, though, so I'll quote them for truth: Quote:
Quote:
|
|||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#15 | |||
Wisest of the Noldor
|
![]()
Firefoot (#37) and Boro (#39), you two are referring to phantom's suggestion at #20?
I had the impression it was off the menu, but if not- look, the problem is that, failing the Seer getting a wolf in that time, it requires not only all the gifteds but all the dreamed innocents not to get eaten until Day 3; meanwhile the wolves are getting 2 kills a Night and we have no chance of lynching a wolf. Plus, there's always the possibility of false reveals. Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Really doesn't seem the best option to me... edit:x'd since Nilp at #40.
__________________
"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
|||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#16 | ||
Wisest of the Noldor
|
Quote:
Quote:
Edit:x'd with Firefoot.
__________________
"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#17 | |
Laconic Loreman
|
First and foremost...woot! What an anniversary and to see you all back!
![]() Reading through the thread and just going to be commenting as I go... Quote:
Granted it would guarantee we didn't lynch the Seer and gives the Seer 2 more dreams (where even if the wolves kill the Seer NIGHT 2, that puts the Seer in the dead thread with 4 dreams instead of 2...hmm, need to think about that). Since there is a delay in finding out information, the best case is to do what it takes to ensure the Seer gets as many double dreams as possible. Ugh, I love fake reveals when you can immediately know the true from the false...it's going to be a pain with delayed information. I suppose it's too optimistic to think, a fake-reveal from one pack, would be as much of a pain to the rival pack as it is to everyone else.
__________________
Fenris Penguin
|
|
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
#18 | |||
Leaf-clad Lady
|
Quote:
Quote:
And while we are on the subject of rules - Quote:
...wow, I'm being positive today. ![]() EDIT: x-ed with Nilp and Mac
__________________
"But some stories, small, simple ones about setting out on adventures or people doing wonders, tales of miracles and monsters, have outlasted all the people who told them, and some of them have outlasted the lands in which they were created." |
|||
![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
|
![]() |