T-I-G CVIII: Wolves of the Galadhrim (Game Thread)

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I could, however, see a wolf-Sally thinking Shasta was the seer. Or perhaps Shasta was the cursed...? Sally could decide to sacrifice him and win our trust long enough to win the game.

Let's see. Assuming a worst case scenario that there are two wolves and that Sally is one of them... (But not factoring in Nimrodel and any hunting she might do.)

Scenario A - sacrificial wolf Shasta

Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill a guilty Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
5 innocents, 1 wolf.

Night 4. The wolf kills an innocent.
4 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 4. If the true Seer died on Day 3 or Night 4, we kill a guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.

If the Seer is still alive, they come forward. Believing Sally, we kill the true Seer.
3 innocents, 1 wolf

Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 5. The remaining two innocents kill the guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.

So, I think that a sacrificial wolf Shasta would not work.


Scenario B - innocent Shasta

Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill an innocent Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
4 innocents, 2 wolves.

Night 4. Wolves kill an innocent.
3 innocents, 2 wolves.

Day 4. We kill a guilty Sally.
3 innocents, 1 wolf.

Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 5. Vote decides the matter between two innocents and one wolf. Game over, could go to wolves or could go to village. However, if the true Seer had had any useful dreams to tell us at some point or we had additional info, that could make the odds better.

Is my reasoning in the above scenarios correct?