T-I-G CVIII: Wolves of the Galadhrim (Game Thread)

[Coppermirror]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I could, however, see a wolf-Sally thinking Shasta was the seer. Or perhaps Shasta was the cursed...? Sally could decide to sacrifice him and win our trust long enough to win the game.

Let's see. Assuming a worst case scenario that there are two wolves and that Sally is one of them... (But not factoring in Nimrodel and any hunting she might do.)

Scenario A - sacrificial wolf Shasta

Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill a guilty Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
5 innocents, 1 wolf.

Night 4. The wolf kills an innocent.
4 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 4. If the true Seer died on Day 3 or Night 4, we kill a guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.

If the Seer is still alive, they come forward. Believing Sally, we kill the true Seer.
3 innocents, 1 wolf

Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 5. The remaining two innocents kill the guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.

So, I think that a sacrificial wolf Shasta would not work.


Scenario B - innocent Shasta

Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill an innocent Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
4 innocents, 2 wolves.

Night 4. Wolves kill an innocent.
3 innocents, 2 wolves.

Day 4. We kill a guilty Sally.
3 innocents, 1 wolf.

Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 5. Vote decides the matter between two innocents and one wolf. Game over, could go to wolves or could go to village. However, if the true Seer had had any useful dreams to tell us at some point or we had additional info, that could make the odds better.

Is my reasoning in the above scenarios correct?

[satansaloser2005]

Nerwen, give me strength.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Let's see. Assuming a worst case scenario that there are two wolves and that Sally is one of them... (But not factoring in Nimrodel and any hunting she might do.)

Scenario A - sacrificial wolf Shasta

Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill a guilty Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
5 innocents, 1 wolf.

Night 4. The wolf kills an innocent.
4 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 4. If the true Seer died on Day 3 or Night 4, we kill a guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.

If the Seer is still alive, they come forward. Believing Sally, we kill the true Seer.
3 innocents, 1 wolf

Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 5. The remaining two innocents kill the guilty Sally. Game over, village victory.

So, I think that a sacrificial wolf Shasta would not work.

Yes, that's what I was just saying in my last post.

Originally Posted by Coppermirror

Scenario B - innocent Shasta

Day 3 - starts with 5 innocents, 2 wolves.
We kill an innocent Shasta on a wolf-Sally's advice.
4 innocents, 2 wolves.

Night 4. Wolves kill an innocent.
3 innocents, 2 wolves.

Day 4. We kill a guilty Sally.
3 innocents, 1 wolf.

Night 5. The wolf kills an innocent.
2 innocents, 1 wolf.

Day 5. Vote decides the matter between two innocents and one wolf. Game over, could go to wolves or could go to village. However, if the true Seer had had any useful dreams to tell us at some point or we had additional info, that could make the odds better.

This is why this would make sense if Sally is convinced Shasta is the seer & he dreamed of her already - she'd be doomed, so she may as well take him (and Nimrodel) down with her. And of course it would be better for her to reveal before Shasta did, since it would give her a better chance of misleading innocent votes.
All this hinges on her not having a plausible story when she gets back - we'll see.

[Farael]

Thanks for doing the math, Copper

I'm still wondering about a Sally cobbler. She would count as an innocent in the end-game, so sacrificing herself to bring out the true Seer AND Hunter would be a heck of a move. It means today we Lynch an innocent (ish), tonight the wolves nab the Seer and (depending on what a potentially true Seer would have to say today), we might not be any closer to a resolution.

Also, we might be making a mistake and assuming the remaining lover is in our side.

What if they are a side of their own? !

In that case we may have to be extra careful with what we assume they may do.

I think there are too many unknowns right now, and Sally's reveal was very... unclear at best.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Rikae, I didn't actually suspect Sally. I did, and do, suspect Lottie, though, which makes her early jump on to Sally's vote pretty much par for the course.