Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[the phantom]

Okay, okay! Stop! I've had quite enough of people saying stuff like "phantom's not being himself" and "phantom is acting different".

Of course I am!

I know I'm not supposed to mention the other games, but considering that my current behavior is being compared to my past behavior I feel the need to mention the other games.

Game 1: I voted correctly on day one and we got a wolf. On day two the seer identified a wolf. On day three I had three main suspects and three days in which to lynch them. I never felt out of control while I was alive in that game.

Game 2: I was a wolf, so I knew exactly what was going on, and I had a plan for absolutely everything that could possibly happen. I was confident- not scared of losing in the least.

This game: We lost our SEER the very first day! No one looks particularly more suspicious than anyone else, therefore I have no certainty whatsoever! There are many people that I could work up a theory for (to accuse them), however, I have little confidence in any theory. I know absolutely nothing, and I know that all the other villagers are in a similar predicament.

Is it any wonder that I'm not acting like I was the last two games??

Everyone understand?

So that puts Kuru, Shelob and Holbytlass on top of my suspect list. Along with SoN, for reasons that I have already stated.

I agree with that.

Oddwen's behaviour has me uneasy.

I agree with that.

The other two are still with us and are acting mighty suspicious to my mind. Notice in particular how Firefoot seems to be echoing things the Saucepan Man says first and how she defends him now. Notice also how on the first DAY Saucepan Man supported mormegil by suspecting the phantom (post 78). However, mormegil is now following the party line by suspecting me.

I agree with that.

How they voted: SoN tried to shift our glance from SpM, admitting that he might be guilty (distancing himself from him for later purposes?), but asserting that he was too valuable to off now (&, coincidently, it would ruin their secret plan). SoN then cast a random vote, perhaps so that the wolves wouldn't be tied together by their votes?

I agree with that.

A sinister possibility has been growing in my mind, though: that both The Saucepan Man and Fordim Hedgethistle are werewolves, and they figure that by squaring off as they have been (note that Fordim recently subtly conceded his hard stance and said that Saucepan has been "allaying [his] suspicions"), one of them is likely to get executed and found to be a werewolf, in which case the other will seem vindicated (or at least uninvolved) and remain below everyone's radar for the remainder of the game.

I agree with that, too!

I agree with everyone!

Do you see my dilemma? Do you see why I am perhaps grasping at straws? Because every single theory offered seems workable, and I have no way of knowing which one (if any) is correct.

The only thing I know is that I'm an innocent villager. That's not much to work with.

We have nothing concrete to go on. You might say "votes", but if we are using votes as our primary evidence, then I should be the last person you lynch today.

Why? Because, my vote is the least meaningful. Yesterday, it was obviously kill Evisse or kill myself. I had zero choice in the matter. We were tied at three a piece, and with the deadline only 20 minutes away it was possible that my vote would be the final vote, so of course I voted for Evisse. It was a no-brainer. It was beyond obvious. My vote for Evisse tells you nothing.

Lynching me today would kill yet another innocent. Pick someone else instead. Yes, it's quite likely that your choice will be wrong, but you definitely have a better shot at catching a wolf voting for someone else considering that I am most certainly not a wolf.

If you keep me around long enough, I may actually be able to form some solid theories to help you out.

Now, I'm going to go to bed for six hours and when I wake up I will read what is going on and cast my vote.

I sincerely hope that I do not awake to find my vote forced towards someone in order to preserve my own skin (like yesterday).

That means no more voting for me! Understood?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by the phantom

There are many people that I could work up a theory for (to accuse them), however, I have little confidence in any theory. I know absolutely nothing, and I know that all the other villagers are in a similar predicament.

Amen to that! As I stated at the outset today, the outcome of yesterday has dented my confidence in my own efforts at deduction, and I find myself questioning the conclusions that I am reaching.

Take Kuruharan, for example. Earlier today, I was convinced of his guilt on the basis that he edged me towards voting for Evisse yesterday, was directing the voting towards me today and was protesting his innocence too much in the face of very few accusations against him. But this can all be explained innocently. His conclusions concerning Evisse yesterday may well (like mine) have been genuine, he may genuinely (but mistakenly) believe me to be a Werewolf and, if he is innocent, his protestations are understandable.

Kuru is still on my suspect list, but now I am now leaning much more towards Shelob and SoN. Shelob has been present without saying much, she did a volte face yesterday concerning Fordim’s proposals leading her to vote for Evisse (who she was the first to vote for) and she was keen to point out the “double bluff” theory in connection with TGWBS’s death, thus subtly implicating Fordim. SoN has been “lurking” (as Oddwen puts it) in my view, and appears now and then to drop subtle hints, most recently joining those who are seeking to implicate Fordim and myself. His vote yesterday remains unexplained, but might be looked on as an attempt to spread the voting and therefore possibly get two innocent Villagers lynched.

I will not vote yet. We still have over 4 hours ‘til the end of the day, and I would like to hear more from Fordim, Firefoot and mormegil, the Villagers whose innocence I am currently most sure of (to the extent that we can be sure of anything at the moment). I am tending towards voting for either Shelob or SoN, but if I see any convincing arguments in favour of one of them, or against anyone else, I am willing to change my view.

Finally, it seems that quite a few are now edging towards voting for me. Fine. Lynch me of you wish. It would be a mistake, but I am not going to go overboard in defending myself. I would just point out that I have not exactly been backward in coming forward and in sharing my thoughts with everyone as they have developed. In other words, I have not been doing a very good job at deflecting attention away from myself. If I was a Werewolf, do you really think that I would be taking on the role of "sacrificial wolf" to draw attention away from the others?

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Oddwen's behaviour has me uneasy. Unlike Azaelia who had not posted at all until just now, Oddwen actually did show up to vote. She even told us that she hadn't reviewed the thread very closely, rather using a few (notably SpM's) posts as summaries.

Originally Posted by Firefoot

Oddwen - my apologies, I was going for memory (bad me) and now that I look at your post again I see that I was mistaken. Either I completely invented something or I was getting you confused with someone else.

It was Shelob who claimed to have voted on the basis of my summary.

[mormegil]

Why I thought that by now I've given everyone more than mouthful. If you want my opinion on your list I would be more willing to vote for Shelob currently than SoN. However I have already voted and silly me I woke up much earlier than I planned so that's why I'm posting now though it wasn't planned. It's only 5:30 here and I went to be after midnight.

But SpM simply based on your little list I would argue Shelob over the others if you would truly like to know, though look at the phantom fellow a bit also brewer.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by mormegil

But SpM simply based on your little list I would argue Shelob over the others if you would truly like to know, though look at the phantom fellow a bit also brewer.

The way that things are looking, voting for the phantom might be the only way of saving myself from a lynching.

But I will stick to my beliefs. And to put an end to this silly suggestion that I am somehow in league with SoN, I shall vote right now, before it can be said that I was trying to protect a fellow Werewolf by voting for him only when it was safe to do so. I appreciate what you are saying about Shelob, morm, and I do still suspect her. But I have suspected SoN from the outset, and was only diverted away from him on the first day by Kuru's comments about Evisse. And SoN's behaviour does seem the least explicable to me out of everyone.

So I shall vote for:

++ SON OF NUMENOR

There. It is done. I have probably sealed my own death warrant, either by lynching today or by foul murder tonight. But there it is.

[Shelob]

Saucepan Man, you were misreading/misrepresenting me again...

"she did a volte face yesterday concerning Fordim’s proposals" ~Saucepan Man

Frst off I'm not entirely sure what 'volte' means but since the definition seemed to have something todo with either turning in a circle or parying in Fencing I'm guessing you mean that I either edged about the point or made a quick-defensive change...in either case it's understandable, however I didn't mean for it to be read that way...I still think that the 'short-list' idea is inheirently wrong, maybe it's not flawed as I first saw it to be but something about it is just not right...as to the 'seer-protection' plan I still think that the idea has some merit, clearly it doesn't work if it's first suggested in the game but I think that it, or a variation of it, could still be potentially usefull

"she was keen to point out the “double bluff” theory in connection with TGWBS’s death" ~Saucepan Man

Yes I pointed it out early...I was also not alone in doing so, Kuru pointed it out at about the same time I did and Mormegil then admited to have thought of it and not mentioned it solely on the basis that it was too risky. Kuru and I both, in pointing this out, did say that we thought it a risky plan and I distinctly said "I just want this possibility aired so that we don't all ignore it completely..." I don't hold with it now, it doesn't seem likely at all...


That you continue to misread/misrepresent me even after I've pointed it out worries me...if you are misreading me I can forgive you, it's an innocent mistake...if, however, you are intentionally misrepresenting me it either means you're an innocent who is an amazing asset to the werewolves because you muddy up the waters or that you are a werewolf leading a crusade against one you know to be innocent...
...I would give you the benefit of the doubt, I wish to think you just misread what I say, but one would think that if this were the case you wouldn't have repeated the offense after having it pointed out to you...esp. since the first of my complaints above is so similar to one I pointed out before...surely you can't have misread the same thing twice?
It is on this theory, that you are intentionally misrepresenting me, that I feel I must vote ++SAUCEPAN MAN. I am sorry for it, but since I shall likely not be back on before this day's end I feel it to be the best choice that I can make...

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shelob

That you continue to misread/misrepresent me even after I've pointed it out worries me...

I can understand why you may think that, but what you call misreading/misrepresentation arises simply as a result of my attempts to summarise what you have said, rather to than repeat it at length each time that I post. Believe me, I took the "explanations" that you seek to give into account when forming my views.

Originally Posted by Shelob

if, however, you are intentionally misrepresenting me it either means you're an innocent who is an amazing asset to the werewolves because you muddy up the waters or that you are a werewolf leading a crusade against one you know to be innocent...

While I am most certainly not a Werewolf, I would hate it to be thought that I am an innocent asset to them. All that I have sought to do is set out my thought processes in the hope that they may be of assistance to those others amongst us who are also innocent. If that's "muddying the waters", then I am sorry, but I would rather make my views known and accept the risks that go along with that than do nothing whatsoever to advance the Villagers' cause.

A final plea to those who have not yet voted. A Village troubled by Werewolves is a sad thing. But a Village troubled by Werewolves and lacking anyone to brew the beer is sadder still ...

[Firefoot]

Well, I'm not going to be around for the end of the Day, so I will have to post my vote now based on what we have.

I don't agree with the basis for the accusations of SpM, and I'm not enough convinced of the guilt of phantom to be ready to vote for him. At this point I am not thinking either are werewolves. The other vote has been for SoN, and he is and has been at the top of my suspicion list for a while. So: ++SON OF NUMENOR. He has been acting far more wolfish than either phantom or Saucepan.

I see that overnight people have started accusing me of echoing SpM. While it is true that our thoughts have gone in similar directions, let me assure you my opinions are my own. I have read everyone's opinions with equal weight and formed my opinions from that; perhaps SpM and I have marked out the same things as important. But I am not echoing SpM's thoughts. I am stating my own, which are often similar, whether or not they have already been said (if I didn't you'd all probably be trying to accuse me of 'flying under the radar').

(NB: On double lynchings: the rules were changed after the first game. If there is a tie, two (or more...) people are lynched.)

[the phantom]

Well, this is my only chance to vote.

I'd actually like to vote for Saucy since he figures into a couple of ideas I've been working on puting together, but SoN also is in one of my theories so he's not a particularly bad choice.

Honestly, I'd normally vote to lynch Saucy first, but I'd feel rather bad doing that since he didn't vote for me when he had the chance. I'll give him a pass this time.

++SoN

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Firefoot

On double lynchings: the rules were changed after the first game. If there is a tie, two (or more...) people are lynched.

I agree. I was under the impression that we were using the rule change that I implemented for the second game. Perhaps Eomer could clarify, given the current state of voting.

As matters stand, the phantom, SoN and I will all be lynched. Heck, I would rather see myself lynched, innocent though I am, than potentially have two innocents hanged.

Edit: I wrote this before I saw the phantom's post. Although SoN is yet to vote ...

[The Only Real Estel]

(NB: On double lynchings: the rules were changed after the first game. If there is a tie, two (or more...) people are lynched.)

I thought I recalled that.

Well, so far the voting goes:
3 for Son of Numenor
2 for Saucepan Man
2 for the phantom
1 for Holbytlass


I do not think I will vote for phantom because Saucepan's seeming pardon of Fordim has me uneasy and makes me want to substitue Fordim for phantom in my theory (because it would work just as well that way as with the phantom in it). But both Sauce and SoN are highly suspected by me right now and I'm split between the vote. I am 90% sure that we could bag a werewolf with Son, but almost equally as sure we could do the same by hanging Sauce (though his posts of late have cast a few shadows of doubt in my mind).
I plan on posting my vote late, again, hopefully more arguments will come to light by then.

Originally posted by SpM:

But I will stick to my beliefs. And to put an end to this silly suggestion that I am somehow in league with SoN, I shall vote right now, before it can be said that I was trying to protect a fellow Werewolf by voting for him only when it was safe to do so.
So I shall vote for:

++ SON OF NUMENOR

But just because you're voting for him hardly puts to rest any questions of league between the two of you. If a wolf senses his partner is going down (and SoN is now the top vote-getter) I would not expect you to vote last or vote otherwise; in other words I wouldn't be at all suprised to see you as a wolf taking down SoN, who is a wolf. And especially seeing how you voting for SoN momentarily tied him with yourself for the most votes.

[Oddwen]

Here's the post I promised - I suppose I shall detail some of my suspicions in it.

Zali - Besides her obvious abscence, in her single post she seems pretty much given to the idea she'll be lynched for it. Perhaps this is a too fatalistic approach.

Fordim - Suspicions, of course, ran high on DAY one, now he seems to have stepped back a bit. I mentioned him in my suspicions yesterDAY, and I still don't let him off the hook entirely.

Holbytlass - Again, her thrashing makes me nervous. And voting between the two absent villagers when there was other stuff going on - not allaying my fears either.

Kuru - Seems insistent that he's going to die, and that it'll be SpM's fault. Could this be part of a plan with SpM? - see below.

Originally Posted by Shelob

as to the 'seer-protection' plan I still think that the idea has some merit, clearly it doesn't work if it's first suggested in the game but I think that it, or a variation of it, could still be potentially usefull

Useful for what? We have no seer.

SoN - His seemingly purposeful abscence makes me wonder...

Originally Posted by the phantom

Is it any wonder that I'm not acting like I was the last two games??

Though you were acting that way BEFORE we lost the Seer.

Originally Posted by SpM

If I was a Werewolf, do you really think that I would be taking on the role of "sacrificial wolf" to draw attention away from the others?

I dunno...if you were a werewolf, what would the odds be that you'd be the most powerful one of the three? And would seemingly sacrificing yourself be a plan you'd use? Would Kuru's accusations of you be part of it?


And what's all this talk of double-lynchings?

Originally Posted by The Barrow Wight

If no majority is reached as a result of more than two players accumulating votes, then a runoff is held and the two highest vote-getters are on the block. Anyone who didn't vote for them originally must now choose between the two of them to determine which person will be lynched. If there still isn't a majority by then, a tiebreaker is used. One of the players at risk places a dagger in one of two boxes, and the other player chooses one of those boxes to open. If the box with the dagger is opened, that player is killed.

So my list is thus:


Holby
phantom
SpM
Kuru
Shelob
Fordim
SoN

I do not anticipate being online before the end of this DAY, therefore I must put in my vote for ++HOLBYTLASS now.

[mormegil]

Thank you for clearing up the double lynching idea Oddwen and I think that it helps shed some light on people arguements.