Tol-in-Gaurhoth III (The Saga Continues...)

[Kuruharan]

I am not going to bother responding to Kuruharan's "evidence" against me at length.

Because you can't.

I should point out that I have never sought to deny my role in the deaths of Evisse and SoN.

Three times you mentioned her name before I took your bait. You still have yet to explain that. Then comes the part about how you attempted to play up my role in it. Then comes the part about how you attempted to dodge the issue (and still are doing so by attempting to dismiss it by saying "I've talked about that" when you haven't). Then comes the part about how completely going to ground when the spotlight inevitably shines too brightly on you hoping that some other victim would turn up...

So there we are. That is what I believe has happened. It's the result of looking at the entire pattern of events over the last few days - how things have developed, rather than just specific comments and votes that led to a lynching. And my conclusion is that we should vote for Kuruharan today

-and-

I shall be voting for Kuruharan.

Good.

We are finally getting down to business.

Perhaps your buddies have given you up for lost after today. Although on the other hand it is probably pretty likely you'd be able to wriggle out of the unpleasantness that would ensue. No doubt you'll pull out the whole "poor pathetic Saucepan" routine again.

Even so, far be it from me to say anything to get myself out of the noose. I'll take it. It might be the village's last chance to see sense before it is too late.

The rest of your post, even the parts that argue against me, does not particularly concern me one way or the other. Obviously mormegil will have to speak up in his own defense if he chooses. But there is one thing.

And finally, Kuru actually got it right first time round about us possibly having only one day left. When he said this, I thought about it and worked out that, if we hang an innocent today and the Werewolves find the Cursed Villager tonight, the game's up. Similarly, if we hang an innocent, the Werewolves find the Hunter tonight and the Hunter unwittingly kills an innocent. It seems to me that this is more likely to occur to a Werewolf (because it plays a part in their planning), so perhaps Kuru realised that it might be incriminatory shortly after saying it and then tried to pass it off as an "innocent" mistake.

I certainly encourage everyone to vote against me if they think this tends to prove my guilt. However, I would ask them to bear in mind that this may be an expression of Saucepan's own hopes that he is attempting to put on me.

++ THE SAUCEPAN MAN

Estel:

Just posting quickly to say that I am still about and have read the latest replies

If only we could hear from some of the other villagers. Most of them seem to have vanished completely.

[mormegil]

Well I thank The Saucepan Man for that post. It has helped me to decide who I am voting for. I have been vacillating on my decision today because I really didn't know for certain who was a wolf or not. As I stated I was so certain that the phantom was a wolf that I pretty much blinded myself on all others. I saw a number of things that have made me more certain that SpM is our wolf.

SpM

One thing that I noticed at the time about Kuru on Day 2 was how very defensive he was. Reading through the day's proceedings again, it is incredible just how defensive he is, notwithstanding that there were only two people who made any kind of serious accusations against him that day. Almost from the outset, his posts had a defensive tone, probably because he realised that people might seek to make something of his role in Evisse's death

The first thing that I thought of when I read this is the old saying "the best defense is a good offense." Well I believe that is the SpM has done. I know that this may appear to be a knee-jerk reaction but I have suspected SpM for sometime now.

I should note that, on DAY 2, mormegil and Kuru mildly pointed the finger at each other, but only mometarily and they have not otherwise come close to making any serious accusations against each other.

It should also be noted that I have been outspoken on the phantom but have mildly pointed the finger at most everybody.

At one point, mormegil pretended to waver between voting against me or the phantom

To this I can only say that I truly did waver and I spend about 20 to 30 minutes pacing before I vote because I truly did consider voting you that night and rue that I did not. The score would now be different. I didn't that night for one main reason and that is in Kuru's attack on you, one of his main points was that you kept putting the blame for Evisse's death on him and didn't take ownership of it. I believed you on this because at the time I was shocked to see that Evisse truly had hedged herself well. I actually think I had cast my vote for the phantom before the whole hedging talk came up. I say this because I remember thinking that if we had retractable votes I may have been convinced of Evisse at the time. Obviously I would have been wrong. But that is why I thought that maybe you were innocent is because Kuru almost convinced me too. Now I can see that Kuru played into your hand on that and gave you a good excuse.

My vote tonight will be for

++THE SAUCEPAN MAN

[The Saucepan Man]

A few points, in no particular order:

Originally Posted by SpM

I am, as noted above, least suspicious of Evisse out of the "quiet" bunch.

I meant, of course, Shelob.

Originally Posted by Kuru

Firefoot's death nonwithstanding, my opinion of The Saucepan Man has not changed in the least.

You haven’t really explained why. If I was a Werewolf, why on earth would I kill Firefoot? She is one of the few people whose vote I probably could have counted on today, given that she has said on a number of occasions that I seem honest to her. It would have been far more logical for me to go for someone like mormegil, who has never really been accused by anyone up to now. If I was a Werewolf, Firefoot is one of the last people that I would have chosen to kill.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

I believed that Phantom's rantings were one of desperation of being innocent and not wanting to be lynched.

Originally Posted by Kuru

Is The Saucepan Man's behavior really in line with what one would expect if one were falsely accused? Take a look at the phantom and me for instance. The phantom made a riotous clamor when he was falsely accused and ultimately so did I.

As I have said previously, unless they are the Seer or Guardian, it makes little sense for innocent Villagers to divert too much energy into defending themselves when they should be trying to find the Werewolves. To my mind, rigorous self-defence is the sign of either a a Seer/Guardian or a Werewolf. As for the Hunter, well there are time when the Hunter might be willing to die, if they are sufficiently certain that they will bag a Werewolf in the process.

Originally Posted by Kuru

We do know that you have been wrong about everything you have said. The same cannot be said for me because people aren't willing to find out.

I was wrong about Evisse and SoN. I had no choice in voting for the phantom, but he was not top of my list of suspects. You were wrong about Evisse and Firefoot. And you are wrong about me too and, if people want to “test” your theory, they will find out.

Quite early on today, mormegil said:

Originally Posted by mormegil

I am putting forth my list (yet another mormegil list) of where my suspion lies. It is in order.

I was 6th on the list, below Kuru who was 4th. Then, about 3 hours later:

Originally Posted by mormegil

I have a theory going right now and if I assume SpM to be guilty it leads me to some conclusions.

Without a word of explanation, mormegil has moved to a position where he is giving great credence to Kuru (who was 4th on his list) and considering me (6th on his list) a prime suspect. It was to be expected, as the two of them clearly want me to be lynched today. So does one other, but they have not yet broken cover. And now that I have made clear my suspicion of him, mormegil is able to come out and vote for me. Either it’s a “knee-jerk” reaction or mormegil planned to vote for me all along (and we all know how much mormegil dislikes knee-jerk reactions).

Originally Posted by TORE

… and his defense of his vote of the innocent phantom doesn't speak a lot to me. Any wolf (we're speaking hypothetically here) in question could wait until the vote was a tie or close to a tie & then vote for the innocent he was being tried against & say he did it in the interest of saving himself/preventing a double hanging. That does not necessarily make him innocent.

I never said that my vote for the phantom establishes my innocence. I said that it establishes nothing. So the evidence against me is no more advanced than it was yesterday.

Originally Posted by Kuru

There is another point to be considered here too. The very fact that I am still alive and have not been eaten in the middle of the night argue in my favor.

No it doesn’t. It suggests that you are a Werewolf, since killing you would have been the best way for the Werewolves to implicate me.

Originally Posted by Kuru

Now, he's going to come galloping out of the tall grass (again) and say that the reason why we are both still alive is that I'm the werewolf and I'm hoping to hang him. This would be very unwise on my part because if I were a werewolf and Saucepan were innocent, suspicion would instantly turn against me and I'd be hopelessly exposed.

Yes. The further the game goes on and you continue to insist on my guilt, the more exposed you will be when I am hanged and found to be innocent. But it is a valid strategy for one of the Werewolves to sacrifice him- or herself to get an innocent Villager hanged. You have said so yourself on a number of occasions previously. The longer the game goes on without a Werewolf being found, the more valid that strategy becomes.

OK, Kuru, you want me to address your “evidence” against me. I shall:

Originally Posted by Kuru

Three times you mentioned her name before I took your bait. You still have yet to explain that. Then comes the part about how you attempted to play up my role in it. Then comes the part about how you attempted to dodge the issue (and still are doing so by attempting to dismiss it by saying "I've talked about that" when you haven't). Then comes the part about how completely going to ground when the spotlight inevitably shines too brightly on you hoping that some other victim would turn up...

As for Evisse, I really don’t know what more I could have done to acknowledge my role in her death. I have repeatedly acknowledged it. Yes, on DAY 1, I mentioned her name three times before you barrelled in against her. Along with SoN and Fordim. I was theorising, and your thoughts seemed to confirm my theory. I am not playing up your role in Evisse’s death. I am merely pointing it out. At a time when I was considering her along with others, you came along and nudged me in her direction, probably because you suspected she might be the Seer. As for “going to ground”, I really do not know what you mean. Yes, I remained quiet on DAY 3, but explained at the time why I was doing that. Indeed, I stated at the outset that this was what I would be doing. I don’t really think that I could be described as “going to ground” at any other point in the game.

To summarise my case against Kuru in a nutshell:

1) He was instrumental in nudging me towards voting for Evisse.
2) His defensiveness on DAY 2 was extraordinary, starting at a time when there were no accusations against him and building up as first I, then Firefoot, accused him. I find it difficult to believe that an innocent Villager would be quite so defensive in those circumstances.
3) Since the middle of DAY 2, he has single-mindedly accused me over and over again, without even considering the possibility that he might be wrong (just as mormegil single mindedly accused the phantom until he got him lynched).

There are other points too, set out in my post above, but these are the main ones.

The single-mindedness seems like a good Werewolf strategy to me. Keep two inncocent Villagers in people’s minds by constantly posting against them. Then, when one of them is lynched, move on to another. They are already beginning to prepare the groundwork for accusing Fordim in this regard. Also, Kuru has stated on a number of occasions how he considers indecisiveness as indicative of slipperiness and, therefore, guilt. But, as all innocent Villagers know, it is natural to be indecisive in this game when you are innocent. It is natural to change one’s mind as the game progresses. Only the Werewolves know who is innocent, and can therefore be single-minded it targeting them.

Kuru is yet to address these points (or the others made in my long post above) properly.

Finally, Fordim, while your “quiet” Villager theory has some merit, I have difficulty in voting for one of them since I remain unsure which one the Werewolf might be (and I think that it’s only one). On the other hand, I am pretty much convinced of Kuru’s guilt. Your "numbers" theory points to Kuru for me.

Heck, I could be wrong about Kuru. I have been before, and I cannot be 100% certain. But, I'm pretty sure it's him so, as far as I am concerned, the best course of action is to vote for him.

[Shelob]

My appologies for my amazing silence so far today, most of this DAY was spent in school for me and even once I got home there were too many small (but vital) things for me to do that I could only read in fits and starts and never found a chance to post.

As it stands I'm caught between seeing the merits of Kuru's plan to vote for Saucepan Man and Saucepan Man's plan to vote for Kuru...and then part of me says that this is too close to yesterdays Phantom/Saucepanman dilema for comfort...

Given the arguments I've read (as well as what conclusions and problems I have seen while reading) I get caught quite simply at the point where
>Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolf
>Saucepan Man's arguments seem more well formulated

Since behaviour is a rough science to judge by I'm currently leaning towards voting for Kuru....

I don't have a lot of time here but shall likely be back on briefly in a little less than an hour and if not at that time then during break (~9.30) I'll certainly make another appearance.

[Shelob]

Back briefly...as I said I would likely be.

I was just rereading what I had had and figured you might want an explanation (add to that the fact that I found a serious problem with my thinking and I'm back to today being a headache and a toss up)

"Given the arguments I've read (as well as what conclusions and problems I have seen while reading) I get caught quite simply at the point where
>Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolf
>Saucepan Man's arguments seem more well formulated"~Shelob

The first of those two points should be fairly self explanatory. Kuru's insistance that we lynch Saucepan Man make him look like a werewolf simply because he's rather like a dog with a bone...but at the same time were a werewolf to act this way makes no sense because it's all but asking for us to lynch a true werewolf rather than an innocent (which would clearly be the werewolves main goal)

The second point, admittedly, comes from that fact that I was raised by a scientist...Saucepan Man's arguments seem to be much more well thought out than do Kuru's and I am therefore more willing to believe his 'facts' than Kuru's.
The problem I have found with this is that it is more likely a werewolf would have such well forumlated arguments than a smiple villager would simply because they would have had more time to formulate them (not time in a strictly 'time' sense, but rather time in that they would have a better overview of the whole game and so could have been planning this situation from the outset--therefore their arguments would be more well organized because they could be changed and adapted over the course of many days before ever seeing the light of day...as it were)

Seeing that problem has once again brought me back to looking vainly at my screen and wishing I had a coin...

[Holbytlass]

I have read all theories and posts and opinions that have been put forth so far, I feel like The Phantom did the other day when he believed all of them. Yesterday, I voted for SaucepanMan, today I do the same. I think we should put Kuru's idea into action.

++SaucepanMan

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by Shelob

...and then part of me says that this is too close to yesterdays Phantom/Saucepanman dilema for comfort...

I agree. The innocent Villagers should be considering everyone, not just two people. There are three Werewolves after all. But if it does come down to a decision between Kuru and me, I would obviously urge you to vote for him, given how sure I am about him now.

Originally Posted by Shelob

Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolf

Well, he's got away with it so far. But at this stage in the game, the Werewolves can afford to lose one of their number.

Originally Posted by Shelob

The problem I have found with this is that it is more likely a werewolf would have such well forumlated arguments than a smiple villager would simply because they would have had more time to formulate them ...

I argue for a living (er, when I'm not brewing, that is ...)

Originally Posted by Kuru

This is why. Her death would in no way point the finger at you. That is the perfect NIGHT strategy for the werewolves. Kill people at NIGHT who will not point to you. Those who would point to you leave alone for as long as possible.

True, as long as they are not prime lynching candidates. But once they are in the frame, they will want to keep the innocent Villagers who they think are unlikely to vote for them. It makes their chances of survival better. You are clever enough to realise, Kuru, that the Werewolves killing strategy will change as the game progresses. Rarely can they afford to leave it static.

Originally Posted by Kuru

If you are honest, then we have a fundamental philosophical difference in how to play the game. Innocent villagers attempting to defend themselves against people who attack them is attempting to uncover werewolves.

It can be, or it can simply consist of rebutting points without actually putting forward any evidence. Then again, you weren't so keen to make this point yesterday when you accused me of implicating the phantom simply by virtue of defending myself. In any event, it is not just the fact of someone defending themselves that makes them suspicious. The energy that they put into it and the prevailing attitude of the Village towards them at the time must also be taken into account. It is these factors which make your Day 2 behaviour very suspicious.

Originally Posted by Kuru

I urge everybody to go back and reread the posts in question. They are 48, 61, 62, 76, and 83 before Evisse's slaying. Then in 106, 124, and 134 he repeatedly and loudly blamed me as being primarily responsible for Evisse's death.

I would urge people to read all the posts, not just mine, take into account both arguments and form your own opinion.

Originally Posted by Kuru

You are either lying or misrepresenting what I've been saying. I've said a number of times that I might be wrong.

You hardly give the impression of someone who thinks that he is wrong. But that is because you are wrong intentionally.

Originally Posted by Kuru

I know something about werewolf strategy *cough* and single-mindedness is not good strategy. It is not good strategy for the werewolves to make moves that will likely at some point thin their own numbers.

As I said, there can be no single Werewolf strategy. It must adapt to circumstances. And in circumstances where the Werewolves have had virtually no votes cast against them (as is the case with you and mormegil, and probaly the third Werewolf too), the single-minded approach works well. By the time it becomes painfully apparent (as it is to me now), the Werewolves will be in a position where they can afford to lose one of their number (as they are now).

Here he is trying to begin his "poor pathetic Saucepan" routine in case I should get lynched.

So it's OK for you to admit that you might be wrong, but when I do it it's a ploy. Right.

It looks like Holbytlass is the third Werewolf.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Kuru
Firefoot's death nonwithstanding, my opinion of The Saucepan Man has not changed in the least.

You haven’t really explained why. If I was a Werewolf, why on earth would I kill Firefoot? She is one of the few people whose vote I probably could have counted on today, given that she has said on a number of occasions that I seem honest to her.

This is why. Her death would in no way point the finger at you. That is the perfect NIGHT strategy for the werewolves. Kill people at NIGHT who will not point to you. Those who would point to you leave alone for as long as possible.

As I have said previously, unless they are the Seer or Guardian, it makes little sense for innocent Villagers to divert too much energy into defending themselves when they should be trying to find the Werewolves.

If you are honest, then we have a fundamental philosophical difference in how to play the game. Innocent villagers attempting to defend themselves against people who attack them is attempting to uncover werewolves. If you are a werewolf then it is painfully obvious why you are saying this.

And you are wrong about me too and, if people want to “test” your theory, they will find out.

Good. I hope so, one way or the other.

the more exposed you will be when I am hanged and found to be innocent.

Yes. This will probably be true if you are innocent. However, that possibility should not ever be a deterrent for anybody speaking their mind. As I said, sooner or later everyone is going to be wrong, it is just going to happen. Since this is the case, there is no point in being timid because it won't save you embarassment and makes it more likely that you can be manipulated into voting for people you don't really want to. (Far be it from me to cite this game as an example).

However, it is an added bonus for me that I don't think you're innocent.

As for Evisse, I really don’t know what more I could have done to acknowledge my role in her death. I have repeatedly acknowledged it. Yes, on DAY 1, I mentioned her name three times before you barrelled in against her. Along with SoN and Fordim. I was theorising, and your thoughts seemed to confirm my theory. I am not playing up your role in Evisse’s death. I am merely pointing it out.

I urge everybody to go back and reread the posts in question. They are 48, 61, 62, 76, and 83 before Evisse's slaying. Then in 106, 124, and 134 he repeatedly and loudly blamed me as being primarily responsible for Evisse's death. (As a matter of fact he is still doing it here.) What I said before I'll say again. I became the natural target for werewolf manipulation because I did argue against Evisse. However, werewolf strategy suggests that you want to have one innocent to target later on your side in arguments for lynching innocents. I was that innocent in the case of Evisse. Once I started arguing against her, Saucepan had what he wanted and then backed up what I said (ignoring SoN for the time being) and ultimately voted for Evisse before I did (saying well before that point even that his vote was primarily down to her).

His defensiveness on DAY 2 was extraordinary

Hardly extraordinary in light of what we know about the phantom.

he has single-mindedly accused me over and over again, without even considering the possibility that he might be wrong

You are either lying or misrepresenting what I've been saying. I've said a number of times that I might be wrong. However, I have also said that your behavior fits werewolf strategy so well that the possibility of my being wrong is a chance I am willing to take to test my theory. I'm determined to know if I am right or not.

The single-mindedness seems like a good Werewolf strategy to me. Keep two inncocent Villagers in people’s minds by constantly posting against them. Then, when one of them is lynched, move on to another. They are already beginning to prepare the groundwork for accusing Fordim in this regard. Also, Kuru has stated on a number of occasions how he considers indecisiveness as indicative of slipperiness and, therefore, guilt. But, as all innocent Villagers know, it is natural to be indecisive in this game when you are innocent. It is natural to change one’s mind as the game progresses. Only the Werewolves know who is innocent, and can therefore be single-minded it targeting them.

I know something about werewolf strategy *cough* and single-mindedness is not good strategy. It is not good strategy for the werewolves to make moves that will likely at some point thin their own numbers. Targeting innocents with single-minded intensity is a pretty good way for them to thin their own numbers eventually. They should only turn on each other when it is absolutely unavoidable. Believe me, I know what I am talking about when I say this.
However, contrary to Saucepan's assertion...I already discussed this back in post #297.

Heck, I could be wrong about Kuru. I have been before, and I cannot be 100% certain.

Here he is trying to begin his "poor pathetic Saucepan" routine in case I should get lynched.

this is too close to yesterdays Phantom/Saucepanman dilema for comfort...

Indeed, perhaps you should vote against Saucepan Man this time, considering how last time turned out.

Kuru's behaviour is too dangerous for a werewolf

-and-

The first of those two points should be fairly self explanatory. Kuru's insistance that we lynch Saucepan Man make him look like a werewolf simply because he's rather like a dog with a bone...but at the same time were a werewolf to act this way makes no sense because it's all but asking for us to lynch a true werewolf rather than an innocent (which would clearly be the werewolves main goal)

Exactly. I can promise you with a certain amount of authority in the matter that this is not a good way for a werewolf to behave (as I've said a few times earlier).

The problem I have found with this is that it is more likely a werewolf would have such well forumlated arguments than a smiple villager would simply because they would have had more time to formulate them

See, you're even coming up with points against Saucepan that I hadn't thought of, why don't you vote against him? I think it is time to put my theory to the test. Remember what happened with the phantom. Saucepan did want us to go that way and look what happened.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

Oh dear…we’re picking up right where we left off. Two loudmouths going away at each other making it virtually guaranteed that one of them is going to get hanged today. To clarify, then:

Saucy’s theory: morm and Kuru are wolves who have been systematically going after other loudmouths with the support of one quiet wolf.

Kuru’s theory: Sauce is a werewolf and there are two more out there somewhere.

My theory: one of either morm, Kuru, TORE or Sauce are wolves providing cover for the two quiet wolves.

Of the three I still think, obviously, that my theory has the greatest merit . In response to the other two, I have to say that I find Sauce’s theory the more sound insofar as it takes into account a much broader picture: it makes a logical argument for the voting patterns and behaviour of the wolves as a group, rather than singling out a single person. So obviously, I think that Kuru’s theory is the less compelling – I have yet to see any real argument from him which would put the actions and votes of Sauce into a context that clearly points to his co-ordinated effort with other wolves.

Next, there are – so far – three suggested courses of action, based on these theories:

1) Lynch Kuru. If he’s a wolf, go after morm next.

2) Lynch Sauce. If he’s a wolf…I’m not sure who is being suggested as the next target, but I suspect that Sauce is right and that it would be me.

3) Lynch one of the quiet villagers, either Holby or Oddwen. If she is a wolf, then go after the other one next. Oops, wait, I’ve just seen Holby’s vote for Sauce – that tears it: she’s probably one of the quiet wolves.

And finally, one more list. What do we gain from each possible course of action if the hanged person is an innocent?

1) If we lynch Kuru and find that he’s an innocent I’m not sure that it proves anything. Sauce has not campaigned for his death, he’s only been defending himself so it wouldn’t prove that Sauce is a wolf. It might cast more suspicion on morm, who could be a wolf using Kuru as his innocent dupe, and possibly on TORE.

2) If we lynch Sauce and find that he’s innocent we can pretty much be certain that Kuru is either a smart wolf working with two quiet wolves, or an innocent who’s the dupe of another loudmouthed wolf (morm?).

3) If we lynch Holby and find that she’s innocent I’m not sure that anything new is learned either. Well, I won’t think that anything new is learned, but I’m sure that everyone else will be sure that you’ve found a wolf in the form of Fordim!

At any event, things are – as always – moving along very quickly and it would appear that my cogitations are perhaps pointless insofar as there are already three votes against The Saucepan Man. To this point I have tried to cast my vote in response to the votes of others, but from here on out I am going to vote the way my reasoning takes me and not strategically. To that end I here vote that we hang:

++Holbytlass

I must head off for a day of work now, and I shan’t have a chance to check in again until later this afternoon… I have no idea how I am going to concentrate on the matters at hand, however, with this going on!

[Kuruharan]

If we lynch Kuru and find that he’s an innocent I’m not sure that it proves anything. Sauce has not campaigned for his death

Actually, I think it would prove a lot. Particularly in light of how Saucepan was the one on DAY TWO who started coming down on me so hard and the whole "me being the target for lynching for Evisse's death" strategy.

[Oddwen]

Erp - sorry, I got out late from work last night and didn't have time to post.

As to your suspicions of me: be suspicious, fine. If you think you've found a werewolf, you are wrong.

I've been loud in my life and I've been quiet - and quiet is by far the better. When you're not the center of attention and in demand, how you listen and what you take from it changes.

I am led to believe that there are two loudmouthed wolves and a quiet. It would indeed be foolish for all three wolves to be in one camp. My suspicions are currently strongest against SpM, Morm, and Holby.
Since, as Fordim has said, we have had no luck with in the loudmouth camp, I am willing to find a candidate from the quiet -

++HOLBYTLASS

Her frequent jests fall too close to the truth for my ears.

And where is Zali?

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

I believe that voting is over, though I may look kindly upon anyone who votes in the next few minutes.