Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[Hookbill the Goomba]

There was a power cut in my area before I was able to vote and by the time it was over, I had forgotten. It was not my fault, so don't castrate me! Perhaps some people did not vote as it is the first night and it was very unlikely that we'd catch a W-w so early on. I don't know, I'm only guessing.

[Firefoot]

Lalaith (and everyone) - list has been edited accordingly. I listed the reasons of those who gave them and added a few notable comments (eg about Saurreg leaving in the middle of voting).

It is completely understandable for people to accidentally miss a vote for whatever reason. However, if you know (or find it likely) that you will miss a vote, vote earlier. There is nothing wrong with this. Though no one wants to be the first vote, voting before everyone else is better than not voting at all, especially at this point in the game.

[Evisse the Blue]

And it's mostly aimed at me and at those who arrived yesterday just in time for the lynching and didn't get to cast the vote. I was foolishly certain the voting deadline was 6 PM GMT. For what it's worth it, I'm really sorry, Kath. And if you guys are wondering, I was going to vote, and my vote would have been for Oddwen. So all the more I kick myself right now, because even if Oddwen is innocent, I doubt she is a gifted villager. But then again, nobody guessed Kath was a gifted villager - although, having looked back now I read things differently: the way she reacted to phantom's plan, recognizing that it could offer her protection.
I too am at a loss as to why Azaelia was slaughtered by the werewolves tonight (and in such a gruesome way too! )

But something else is on my mind right now: Feanor's vote for Eomer yesterday. I don't find any logical basis for it, and it seemed to be a gut reaction to him suspecting her. Anyway, I am most puzzled by the time when she chose to cast that vote (20 minutes before the deadline) - and while some of us thought the deadline extended to 6 PM GMT, Fea knew the voting was going to end in 18 minutes, she said so in her post. By that time, 4 other people were voted for. The chances that innocents were going to come in those 18 minutes to ensure that 5 people didn't get lynched were about as high (or I'd rather say 'low') as werewolves coming along to ensure a few more got lynched. If no one else showed up, those 5 would have died anyway. Now, the problem is we can't know for sure if people didn't vote because they didn't pay attention to the deadline change or werewolves didn't show up to vote because a werewolf was on that list. Or - the other possibility, that has already been mentioned, that werewolves did vote. In that last case, Fea's vote for Eomer when so little time was left seems highly suspicious.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

But something else is on my mind right now: Feanor's vote for Eomer yesterday. I don't find any logical basis for it, and it seemed to be a gut reaction to him suspecting her.

You know why I voted for Eomer? Because I was truly only suspicious of three people. You know which three people? The phantom, Eomer, and Dancing Spawn of Ungoliant (she, by the way, is "Someone Else"). None of them were on the list, so no matter what, I was going to be voting for somebody besides those people. I wasn't about to vote for a person I didn't suspect. So I had my three guesses, and I had to pick which one. I posted my suspect post and then, when finished, I looked at the clock, remembered I had to go take a three hour Regents exam very soon, and then suddenly remembered that the deadline was in 18 minutes. I knew I wasn't going to be able to come back, so I had to EDIT in a snap decision. Since I was most suspicious at Eomer at that point, I tagged him for it. Then I went and may or may not have failed a long and arduous physics test. I simply assumed that a few more of our many villagers would show up and vote, since there was such a wonderful twenty minute window of opportunity.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Maybe the reason that the phantom wasn't targeted (assuming he's not a wolf, of course) is that he said that he expected to be killed soon and they weren't going to give him credibility.

Yes, the same thought crossed my mind. Although, its still early days and I think he'll show his true colours soon enough.

Eomer, you're thoughts on the possible accidental lynching of our seer are interesting. No, we don't need the seer, par se, but he / she's a useful tool (yes, I've read the rules a little more now ) I will be suspicious of anyone who would try to lynch someone with seer like qualities so early on in the game....

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Um, Hookbill, you've completely lost me. I have no idea what you are talking about.

Dancing spawn? Hmm, I'm intrigued as to why her name has been brought up as a suspect. I'm looking keenly at phantom and Saurreg as two of our wolves at the moment.

[Esgallhugwen]

Alas, I am gone for a day and look what has befallen our quiet village! My poor Grandmother's house (located in a distant village) nearly decided to take a swim in the flooded Longbow. I had travelled there to ensure she was indeed safe, I also needed supplies for my candles.

I've thought up a wonderful idea for you Lalaith , scented candles. Lavender would be wonderful for soothing those restless little charges of yours, and the glow of the flame would act as a 'night light' to scare the shadows away. What do you think?

But anyway, I must admit I was slightly taken aback that the Phantom had voted for me, but then again I couldn't make it for the first Day so I suppose his decision will not bode ill with me. It was a 50/50 chance between Anguirel and myself, I can't really hold anything against him.

But Kath! That's horrible and what poor luck we've been given on the first day, our Ranger being taken from us not by the claws of wolves but by our own panicked confusion. I've also read everyone elses ideas, and then Azaelia was slaughtered. Why would they go after her, she was quiet enough, and didn't really speak out against anybody.

I must go through my thoughts again before I come to a decision about who is most suspicious.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Here are my thoughts on the hidden wolves:

the phantom offers his plan to lynch an innocent villager who does not possess 'special powers'. He does not offer himself. There's a slight chance that he is a self-serving hypocrite who thinks that he can be the one exception out of the ordinary villagers, but that's probably only a slight chance.

He is basically coming out into the open, right at the start of the game, and telling everyone that he is a gifted villager or a werewolf.

If the werewolves honestly didn't pick that up then I'm sorry for being so damn sensible in public, and they will kill him tonite anyway. But it's not my fault; the phantom himself put out this thinly veiled message.

Why didn't the werewolves kill the phantom? It's quite possible that they put little thought into their selection. It's quite possible that they just overlooked the phantom's claim and decided to keep him alive as a useful and troublemaking loudmouth.

However, it's also quite possible that the phantom himself is one of the furry fiends.

(I realise that if you take my advice we will probably end up lynching a Seer-phantom. Well, we have little else to go on. If that happens then by all means, lynch me for being so pathetically wrong.)

Saurreg offered a little "O, well done old boy! It's nice to see someone thinking about the good of the village, even though the plan itself isn't perfect." Clearly, the werewolf's way of protecting his ally yet keeping him at arm's length.

It fits together. (And yes, I am aware that just about every theory 'fits together' and that coherentism is a rubbish theory of truth.)

But there you have my two suspects: the phantom and Saurreg.

If yesterday was anything to go by, don't listen to me. But realise that if the phantom is innocent, the werewolves will kill him tonite if we don't lynch him. So we won't actually lose anything (except, perhaps, the phantom's occasional jovial nature! )

[Saurreg]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Saurreg offered a little "O, well done old boy! It's nice to see someone thinking about the good of the village, even though the plan itself isn't perfect." Clearly, the werewolf's way of protecting his ally yet keeping him at arm's length.

It fits together. (And yes, I am aware that just about every theory 'fits together' and that coherentism is a rubbish theory of truth.)

But there you have my two suspects: the phantom and Saurreg.

If yesterday was anything to go by, don't listen to me. But realise that if the phantom is innocent, the werewolves will kill him tonite if we don't lynch him. So we won't actually lose anything (except, perhaps, the phantom's occasional jovial nature! )

Allow this uncouth furrier to laugh in your face. HAHAHAHHAHA!!!

Everybody could see for miles that The Phantom and I complimented one another and you were the only one naive enough to use this a the basis of your rationale.

Of course no one would listen to you now that you have been cast a suspect also.

"So we won't actually lose anything" That's a very careless and haughty joke to make doncha think - belittling the importance of lynching an innocent individual? Are you sure you're not a werewolf?

We have so many villagers in this round and you have already set your sights on yours truly even without waiting for the others to post, you and Firefoot. What's to say the both of you aren't "complimenting" each other also.

[the phantom]

I've been gone for a bit so I'm going to go back and respond to everything that has happened since I have been gone.

But anyway, I must admit I was slightly taken aback that the Phantom had voted for me, but then again I couldn't make it for the first Day so I suppose his decision will not bode ill with me. It was a 50/50 chance between Anguirel and myself, I can't really hold anything against him.

Thanks for understanding, Esgal.

I think that the most important thing is to figure out why the wolves picked Azaelia last night. I had my thoughts on who the various gifted villagers might have been and Azaelia wasn't on the list.

Here, Celuien makes the same observation that I made earlier. Why in the world did the wolves kill Azalia? I haven't spotted a good reason so far- not a good enough reason for the wolves to have lynched her over someone who was possibly the seer.

And why did Saurreg, knowing that three villagers stood to die, therefore think it was ok for him not to vote?

what made Saurreg say this: "I don't think I need even to vote today."

Saurreg's behaviour at the end of the last day was odd.

The more I think about it, the more suspicious I am of Saurreg. It doesn't make sense for an innocent not to vote once the tie was in place. Reading his post again, it looks like he expected not three but five villagers to die since we didn't know that Anguirel and Esgallhugwen had given notice of their absence yet.

Well, well- it seems that Saurreg is the flavor of the day. But I don't believe he is as suspicious as you are making him out to be.

The way I see it, only four votes had been cast and he assumed that there were more on the way, and that a decision would be made without his vote. I mean- is there anyone who thought that voter turnout would be as low as it was? I doubt it.

It is possible that the people he suspected the most already had a vote against them, and instead of casting a vote for one of them he wanted to leave them tied and then wait and see if anyone tried to come rescue them.

Plus, there were others who made an appearance but did not cast a vote. Many others. I don't really see anything within Saurreg's posts to place him as a suspect above all the others who sat on their votes, nor above those who did vote.

At this point, I might like to lynch Anguirel simply because he hasn't shown up.

As far as people who have been around, my eye is on Eomer.

Eomer, when speaking of why the wolves killed who they killed, said this-

No loudmouth would be killed

And yet, a couple lines later he said this-

I am much more interested in why the wolves didn't go after the phantom.

First he says that wolves would not kill a loudmouth (I am a loudmouth), and then he wonders why I wasn't killed. That seems very odd to me. Is he trying to give a reason for why he wasn't killed (because he is a loudmouth) but somehow not extend to me the same excuse he is using for himself.

Very suspicious.

And actually, I thought that I stood a good chance of getting killed last night. As I plainly said yesterday, I was trying my best to be a thorn in the wolves' side. I was hoping that they would perhaps try to kill me and the ranger would guard me and thus ruin their night. Once we lost our ranger I was expecting to be killed (well, I thought it likely anyway).

The way I saw it, the main reason for the wolves not to kill me would be if they were going to try and set me up the next day, which Eomer appears to be doing.

Once again, I am suspicous of him.

Either the wolves are not smart at all, or the phantom is one of them.

Oh really, Eomer?

Even if I was a wolf, that would not make their selection of Azalia smart.

The best defense I can offer as to why I am not a wolf- I would have made a much better kill last night.

Anyone who knows me well knows that to be true.

And don't even say it was some sort of trick. It is not advantageous for a wolf to pass on an opportunity to kill the seer simply to attempt some sort of trick which may or may not work.

There is no way that I would've killed Azalia and you know it.

I'm looking keenly at phantom and Saurreg as two of our wolves at the moment.

Really? I don't believe you.

I believe that you think Saurreg and I are the two sheriffs and you are hoping to kill one of us during the day and one tonight.

You were on my short list of possible seers, but you are not on it anymore since you are going after me and I am not a wolf.

EDIT: just saw Eomer's last post

He is basically coming out into the open, right at the start of the game, and telling everyone that he is a gifted villager or a werewolf.

That was one of the points of what I did. I am not the seer, but if I could make the wolves suspect me and go after me at night then that would ensure that the seer was not killed that night. I was doing my duty as a villager- protecting my seer.

But realise that if the phantom is innocent, the werewolves will kill him tonite if we don't lynch him.

Clever, Eomer. You are painting this as a "we might as well" sort of situation.

I think that we should lynch you instead.

You have done exactly what I figured the wolves would do today if they left me alive- try and set me up.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Wow phantom, you're really not gonna like that last post I made.....

[Lalaith]

I've realised (not having had much experience with werewolves before) that there is much to learn. For example, how great a part of one's thoughts should one share? There is the need to band together the innocents, but how to do this without alerting the wolves?
Anyway, I still think honesty is the best policy so here are two thoughts of mine.

1. The Werewolf Slaying
Azaelia was probably killed, as Kath was, more or less at random. The fact that the wolves got the hunter was a lucky strike. BUT I believe that the wolves picked their victim out of the non-voters. Voters leave a trail, clues to something or other, while non-voters are a tabula rasa.
The other thought I had regarding the slaying was that Azaelia was, along with Feanor and myself, the most vocal opponent of phantom's volunteer plan. However, unlike Feanor and myself, Azaelia failed to vote. I am not convinced that this is significant, however.

2. Yesterday's Vote
From yesterday's events, the evidence points to Eomer probably NOT being a werewolf. Werewolves are allies. If he were a werewolf he would not have had to save himself, one of the other werewolves could simply have stepped in and voted for one of the other nominees. This would not have drawn suspicion to Eomer, because there were three other nominees also saved.

There are however three reasons I can think of why Eomer would have had to vote to save himself and yet still be a werewolf:
a. Because the other two werewolves weren't around. I am slightly suspicious that Eomer waited around until the last minutes to save himself, as if he were waiting for someone else to do it. (Mind you, this would also work if he were a Shirriff and the other Shirriff wasn't around)
b. Because ALL THREE werewolves were, by chance, nominated. So one of them had to step in to stop the slaughter.
c. Because two of the three werewolves were nominated and the third wasn't around.

[Celuien]

Thanks, Firefoot.

The more I think about it, the more suspicious I am of Saurreg. It doesn't make sense for an innocent not to vote once the tie was in place. Reading his post again, it looks like he expected not three but five villagers to die since we didn't know that Anguirel and Esgallhugwen had given notice of their absence yet. In fact, seeing that post almost made me wish I could retract my vote for Oddwen. Of course, I realize that I was involved in creating the tie, but at the time, the only other votes were for Kath and Esgallhugwen. I saw no reason to be suspicious of Kath, so I didn't vote for her. I didn't want to vote for a villager who hadn't said anything yet, which is why I didn't cast my vote for Esgallhugwen. And I did expect a few more people to vote before the deadline to prevent a potential five-villager slaughter. I'm going to be watching closely for Saurreg's posts...

I suppose Azaelia's selection could have been a random draw from the non-loudmouth pool.

Maybe the reason that the phantom wasn't targeted (assuming he's not a wolf, of course) is that he said that he expected to be killed soon and they weren't going to give him credibility.