Tol-in-Gaurhoth IV (The Saga, erm, Still Continues...)

[Evisse the Blue]

After having listened carefully to all of you, I am very confused but I'll assure everyone I won't miss voting this time. On my list of suspects are Eomer, Fea, Saurreg, phantom, Oddwen, Lalaith, Firefoot. *shrugs* well, that's my list. About half of the population.
I'm gonna wait before I cast my vote to give Eomer the chance to defend himself, he's earned the benefit of the doubt here.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Good Lord, I can't remember. Just ignore that post; I think I must have been going slightly mad.

[Saurreg]

Aren't we all.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

When I'm gone, be sure to string up Hookbill the Goomba.

Who knows what bizarre influence he has had in killing me.

[Anguirel]

I hope we will save you yet, my good rapscallion...or at least take that sophist of a healer with you. Alas, though, it is in the hands of the quorum of citizens, who will not accept the advice of a higher authority, it would seem...

[Saurreg]

The influence of good judgement?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Well... I've made it back from all my "painting and drawing", and yet I can still only fit in one good post before I disappear again.

Thanks for referring to me as emotive, LMP, because I'm a passionate loudmouth. It's true. We all know it, so there's no point in denial. I'm not a wolf though. Why would a wolf try her absolute best to shoot down a plan to kill innocents and try and lynch the guys trying to kill the good guys?

About that "I hope you both die"... pretty ironic, ain't it? Sorry if that arouses any suspicion, but I feel pretty special that the wolves went through all the effort of making me look guilty as all heck by killing the guys on my hitlist. Sure I feel bad that they were innocent, but I don't feel bad that they died. After all, the phantom tried to kill the good guys, and Eomer told him that he was right in that I was "insane". Now that may or may not be true, but it doesn't apply to the game.

About my "targeting" LMP... I explained that really well, or so I thought. I had to vote in a rush. I only had four suspects. I didn't want to vote for the phantom out of annoyance, plus I suspected he was the Seer. I didn't want to risk it. Eomer, I no longer suspected. Remember my "It's always good to have publics "suspects" whether you suspect them or not?" Yeah... he was just the guy I pointed my finger at on Day One for lack of anything better to do. Spawn, I no longer cared about. I wasn't suspicious. By default, I had to vote for LMP. No hard feelings, ol' boy, but you were the only possibility for me at the time.

Now, however... I'm still going to say "LITTLEMANPOET IS A WOLF." He's just too polite of a loudmouth to be sincere. But then again... I'm also suspicious of Lalaith, just for good measure, and I think that The Barrow-Wight and The Saucepan Man and Esty are wolves.

No... in all seriousness... what the heck is with Nilpy? First he's saying "I'm innocent, lynch me." And then he says "I'm a wolf. Lynch me." Let's just lynch him and get the mystery out of it all. The only question is whether he's the Hunter and just wants a free shot at whoever he's got his beady little eyes on.

[Saurreg]

Fish, The Phantom is now dead and i have yet to return him his gold star.

I posted yesterday that I thought Oddwen was innocent and yet people still voted for her when the prime suspects were Eomer, The Phantom and I. Go figure...

Of Firefoot's list of four, three are dead and I was the favor of the day early on, with only Phantom by my side. I have not discounted my suspicions of her but that can wait (I hope. Yesterday's voting was interesting. It was a battle to the last between Eomer and the Phantom and then suddenly Oddwen's name popped out and won the tie.

Why Oddwen? As I recalled, she did not post much or anything during the second round to arouse suspicion except to express her indignance at the vote being levied at her.

Those who voted against Oddwen were (In chronological order):

Nilpaurion Felagund
Celuien
Firefoot
Esgallhugwen
Lalaith

More latter.

EDIT: I also believe as of this time that Feanor is not a werewolf. I believe she was the first to vote and she voted for LMP - a most improbable choice that as proven, was not followed upon by.

We have three wolves. They must have divided their votes between Eomer, the Phantom and Oddwen and just so that they don't appear to suspicious they could have changed their voting patterns such as having a different wolf vote for different candidates each round. But all three votes would have been cast for the one with the most votes and the runner-up.

Trends to look out for:

1. Any pattern of same names that have voted for the condemned and the next most suspicious together.

2. The same names appearing much latter during the vote.

[the guy who be short]

The villagers woke bright and early, eager to witness more morbid and gruesome killings. A quick scan seemed to show that the ego of the village square was half of what it should have been – the phantom was missing!

The villagers rushed to his home. The healer was dead, they knew, but they were curious anyway. They gathered in a small room where the phantom liked to make his potions, to find him stretched on the floor under his bench. A shattered vial was by his side, and his face showed peace rather than fear. It was clear that, hearing the wolves coming upon him, he had chosen to poison himself rather than die at their paws. Indeed, his body was unmolested by the werewolves, and this seemed to be the case.

The villagers looked crestfallen at the lack of blood and gore.

They looked around the phantom's home, to see if any secrets were hidden away. Forcing a dark cupboard, they found a well made set of drawers. They opened one of these, and stood gobsmacked. It contained file after file after file. What could be in them?

The villagers rifled through the papers, amazed to find documents concerning absolutely everything about them – their likes, their dislikes, all their little moves. It was clear the the phantom was a Shirriff, one of the Secret Police of King Orodreth who spied on his citizens to keep them orderly. (This is a little known story, actually. Orodreth was actually a fearsome dictator, who kept careful tabs on the doings of all his followers. His mass censorship managed to keep this out of the history books).

In the confusion, the villagers did not notice one of their members slip a small envelope from under a corner of carpet into their pocket.

Usually the people would have been thrilled to rid themselves of one of the Secret Police – but in these perilous times, it was most damaging…

Living:

Anguirel
Celuien
dancing spawn of ungoliant
Esgallhugwen
Evisse the Blue
Feanor of the Peredhil
Firefoot
Hookbill the Goomba
Lalaith
littlemanpoet
Nilpaurion Felagund
Saurreg

Dead:

the guy who be short (Villager) - partially consumer by werewolves on NIGHT 1.
Kath (Ranger) - lynched by villagers on DAY 1.
Azaelia of Willowbottom (Villager) - turned into a pincushion on NIGHT 2.
Oddwen (Villager) - lynched with kitchen utensils on DAY 2.
Eomer of the Rohirrim (Villager) - lynched and drowned on DAY 2.
the phantom (Shirriff) - poisoned himself on NIGHT 3.

Score:

Werewolves: 3
Villagers: 9

It is now DAY. DAY will tomorrow in 24 hours at 6pm BST, 1pm EDT, 12:00 noon CDT, or earlier if a majority is reached before then.

Edit: The following villagers have given notice of their potential absence on this thread and will be exempt from the auto-kill rule: Celuien, Feanor of the Peredhil.

[Anguirel]

Ironic indeed. the phantom was correct about his innocence, but the late heroic seaman Eomer was even more wise about his survivability.

It seems to me that we must examine the village records, and see who fanned the flames to destroy Eomer-in particular those who committed themselves late, but decisively.

The healer-shirriff's demise has assured one thing for me-as I said earlier, the furrier Saurreg is unlikely to be a werewolf and to be acting alone. Indeed, his defence of the phantom, effective and well-timed, makes me suspect he is the other shirriff (as the phantom claimed that Eomer had guessed). I feel free to suggest this as, alone, a shirriff is of limited use to the village, and I do not feel this possible exposure will increase the chances of his murder by wolves. Despite Eomer's parting words to us, I believe we can absolve Saurreg of guilt, whether to conspiracy or murder.

As for my own exhortation that the phantom be hanged, I am unapologetic. His divisive tactics and feudings, in any case, did not befit his lawful rank and harmed the village more than they benefitted. But I will add that he was undoubtedly a brave, if misguided, man, utterly true to his own convictions; the convictions that the wolves among us exploited. Eru keep his soul.

[Lalaith]

So we are nine.

And the souls of two of those already dead lie heavy on my conscience, our poor Guardian and innocent Oddwen, slaughtered by my numerical idiocy. And poor phantom, I was so wrong about him, as he was so wrong about Eomer.

I have thought however of one slight silver lining. At least, if we wake up with no-one dead, we will know for sure that the wolves' ranks have been swelled by the cursed villager - there will be no optimistic pondering about Guardian success. Of course, among our many lynching blunders, the cursed villager may already lie dead.
Among our nine innocents, we still have our Seer and the Guardian, and one lonely Shirriff.
It is ironic to think that of those five who were nominated on our first day, three are now dead and all were innocent. Esgalhugwen and Saurreg are remaining nominees surviving from that first day. No-one stepped forward to save them, either, so can we deduce from that, that both are innocent? (Phantom could not save Saurreg, if Saurreg was in truth the other shirriff, as he had already voted).
Or was perhaps one a werewolf, and his two partners in evil ready to let him die for the sake of taking four innocents with him in a mass lynching?
Will the other shirriff now step forward and declare himself, I wonder?

[the guy who be short]

Guardian = Ranger = Kath = Dead.

The Hunter is still alive.

[Lalaith]

Sorry, I just keep getting those two mixed up. I think I must be in denial about the whole Kath thing, I felt so bad about it.

[Lalaith]

Anguirel, I know what you are saying, but if a wolf was to pit himself against the true shirriff, it would have to be a wolf with a convincing case, one who has made posts supporting the phantom?
But of those gifted who are still left, will the wolves at this stage be so keen to kill any of them?
The Seer, once dead and thus with his/her identity revealed, leaves a meaningful trail of posts behind him/her, which could help the survivors.
The Hunter might on his death kill one of the werewolves.
The remaining Shirriff is no more use than an ordinary villager.
No, I think that the werewolves will be looking to kill the Cursed villager. If of course we have not already killed him.
I tried to save Eomer because I thought he might be the Seer, as he seemed to know my innocence. But that was when I thought the phantom guilty. I thought Eomer had also dreamt about the phantom, you see.
The Seer has now had three dreams. Can we find his or her hints?

[Anguirel]

I also wonder if the Shirriff will come into the open. More interestingly, will wolves, or simple rogues and tricksters who love to sow confusion, claim shirriffdom; a risky tactic, but potentially a rewarding one? We must be on our guard. In the end, I believe the direct unmasking of the shirriff will only help the wolves; however, we may indirectly unmask the shirriff by defending villagers on the grounds that we believe they are the shirriff, as I did with Saurreg. This shows the clarity of our thought processes and helps back up our rhetoric and theories with appropriate rationale.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Why in the world did he have to be so arrogant, self-assured, and most of all, willing to kill people "for the good of the village"? I was convinced that the fool was a wolf. Now I have to go and ruin all my partying this afternoon by coming up with new suspects since you all went and lynched my old one, and then the one I most wanted to lynch went and got suicidal on me. Do you know what a damper this puts on my afternoon?

I recommend taking a closer look at Firefoot, unless in my skimmings I missed something important (such as her not actually being alive any more). Either she's bad enough at this that she's been wrong about all of her suspects, or she's trying to frame them up because people think she's trustworthy. Either way, it's not reassuring.

[Firefoot]

Well, I've gone through the thread a bit more as promised. Here's what I've been thinking.

I am doubtful that Celuien is a werewolf. She has been analytical and straight to the point; her points are logical and make sense. Nor do I feel very suspicious of Hookbill or Evisse. I don't see anything very werewolfish about them.

I have mixed feelings about Lalaith. She has been conservative, though has offered her opinions in a fairly straight-forward manner. She has given the appearance of being open-minded. Both good strategies for both innocents and wolves. She followed the Eomer case very closely, generally leaning towards his innocence; she put several cases forth "if he was a werewolf, this... but if he wasn't, that..." She has commented about werewolf strategy, which would seem to indicate innocence, however, it has not been enough that it would give away werewolf strategy if she were to be a werewolf. On a scale of 1-5, I would put her at about a 3.

If Lalaith is a werewolf, I would then look towards Anguirel. I am mildly suspicious of Anguirel anyway; he seems to put himself above suspicion (and this may be because he is innocent, of course). He has been fair and not very vindicitive (again: a good strategy for both wolves and villagers. It doesn't necessarily mean anything); I almost wish he would be a little more concrete. He has at least three times now mentioned Lalaith's innocence (post #'s 165, 223, 227), generally in passing as if not to bring too much attention to her but enough to gently nudge others that way. I don't see any other evidence of this; if these two are our wolves, I think that the third has not attracted much negative attention yet.

I'm still not comfortable with Saurreg, for reasons already stated; primarily now his apparent knee-jerk reaction to my previous accusations. Also, as I said before, my irritation with his rude comments, more likely to produce division than the unity we innocents need. However, I see no real concisive evidence for him to be a werewolf. I shall remain watchful here.

Nor am I comfortable with Fea. Numerous times, she has tried to nudge the accusations in my direction. If she were a wolf, I would justify the deaths of Azaelia and Eomer as a possible attempt to set me up: Azaelia, who I had already expressed suspicion on (plus Kath), then phantom, who I thought to be innocent, and would "make sense" for me to kill according to my theory that a wolf would not kill anyone that they had cast suspicion on publicly. The other odd thing that I find about Fea is her insistence about lmp. Except for her erroneous accusations of me I would say she was the seer. However, she seems too noisy and, well, vehement to be a wolf. She brings a lot of attention to herself, so unless this was to hide the other two 'quiet' wolves, this would argue against the Fea=werewolf case. So, I don't have a lot of backup here, but I will again be watchful.

Nilpaurion is just a mystery. I am inclined to think him innocent, though.

I am leaning towards the innocence of Esga, dancing spawn, and lmp. In particular, lmp's analysis post seemed fairly correct based on what evidence we had at that point.

So there you go. None of this is concrete, rather, it is likely to change. But based on what people have said so far this is where I'm at. Besides, someone needed to comment at length today. Maybe this will stem some discussion.

Edit: cross-posting with lmp.

Edit 2: After reading lmp's post, I am further convinced that lmp is probably innocent.

[Celuien]

Alas for the phantom. We've lost another gifted villager, as I feared he was.

I feel sick about my vote for Oddwen yesterday, now that we now she was an innocent as well. I hope that she can forgive me for voting against her, wherever she is. I did what I felt I had to do to try and save the phantom and Eomer, of whose innocence I was certain. Or rather, I had as much certainty as possible for an ordinary weaver. Unfortunately, my plan backfired in the loss of two innocents, since my theory that implicated Oddwen (which I did fear was shaky) turned out to be wrong and we ended in a tie.

I'm not sure what to do today. My unease about Saurreg still exists, although most of my suspicions are founded on the grouping discussed yesterday in regard to Oddwen. The rest is based on the same reasons that other villagers have given. I'm also starting to wonder about Fea because of her targeting of lmp, who doesn't seem wolfish to me.

After yesterday, I'm having trouble finding any clarity. I think I'm going to wait and see what happens before I make any further judgments.

EDIT: It might prove useful to look at late votes that lead to the tie between Oddwen and the phantom yesterday. There might be a couple of wolves in there who took the opportunity to force a tie.

[littlemanpoet]

Originally Posted by Celuien

It might prove useful to look at late votes that lead to the tie between Oddwen and the phantom yesterday. There might be a couple of wolves in there who took the opportunity to force a tie.

I discussed that in post # 229.

I see that there is continued unease about Saurreg. Didn't it seem clear that he and the phantom were sure of each other's innocence?

And Lalaith still garners suspicion? Though her voting pattern seems a bit too obvious and goofy, that could be by design, I suppose.

Mild suspicion of Anguirel? This is based so far on his failure to be concrete, as Firefoot admits.

And Feanor garners suspicion. I appreciate the confidence some of you have shown in me; it tends to make me think you are also innocent, Firefoot and Celuien, which was the direction I was leaning already. I did say Fea seems more emotive than wolfish, but then maybe emotive is just how Fea is, and she could still be a wolf. Her voting record should probably therefore be more sound as evidence in her regard, rather than the verve with which she posts. So far she has voted for Eomer, who was innocent, and for me. I can of course tell you I'm innocent also, until I'm blue in the face, but of course in the end you have to be the judge of that. Again, I thank you for your confidence.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by littlemanpoet

I discussed that in post # 229.

I see that there is continued unease about Saurreg. Didn't it seem clear that he and the phantom were sure of each other's innocence?

Ah, I missed that. It must be road fatigue - I've had a long trip between villages today.

[Saurreg]

Originally Posted by Celuien

EDIT: It might prove useful to look at late votes that lead to the tie between Oddwen and the phantom yesterday. There might be a couple of wolves in there who took the opportunity to force a tie.

There was no tie between The Phantom and Oddwen. It was the latter and Eomer. And why just The Phantom and Oddwen? Why not also look at the votes for Eomer also? Why have you discounted him? I would like to hear the reasons.

Those who voted for Eomer (In chronological order):

Saurreg
Hookbill the Goomba
The phantom
Dancing spawn of Ungoliant
littlemanpoet

And for those of you who still persist on calling me wolf. Have it your way. It's not as if I give a fish about it anymore because no matter how hard I try to exonerate myself, someone would still find the flimsiest of substance and use it to condemn me. So vote if you want. And if you think no one's gonna follow you, go ahead and bring your siblings, bring your mother and your father, bring your cousins, aunts and uncles. Bring your entire clan. See if I care.

[Saurreg]

Those who voted on Round 1:

Celuien for Oddwen
Firefoot for Saurreg
Lalaith for Kath
Feanor of the Peredhil for Eomer of the Rohirrim

I have already discounted Eomer and the Phantom because they are dead and innocent.

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

Slightly off-topic: I'm going to be away since I have work today but I'll be back a couple of hours before the deadline.

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Oh dear

I'm a bit lost at the moment. All my w-w theories have just gone out of the proverbial window with the death of phantom. After Eomer turned out innocent, I was sure phantom would be a hairy one. But now... I'm going to have to think a little harder.

[Celuien]

Originally Posted by Saurreg

There was no tie between The Phantom and Oddwen. It was the latter and Eomer. And why just The Phantom and Oddwen? Why not also look at the votes for Eomer also? Why have you discounted him? I would like to hear the reasons.

Those who voted for Eomer (In chronological order):

Saurreg
Hookbill the Goomba
The phantom
Dancing spawn of Ungoliant
littlemanpoet

And for those of you who still persist on calling me wolf. Have it your way. It's not as if I give a fish about it anymore because no matter how hard I try to exonerate myself, someone would still find the flimsiest of substance and use it to condemn me. So vote if you want. And if you think no one's gonna follow you, go ahead and bring your siblings, bring your mother and your father, bring your cousins, aunts and uncles. Bring your entire clan. See if I care.

Twas an error on my part brought on by my long round of deliveries yesterday. I meant to say Eomer and Oddwen, as that was of course the critical tie. A tie that could have been a perfect set-up for the wolves who knew they were helping bring down two innocents. And for what it's worth, I've finally decided that there's no way that you're a wolf.

Nilp - my strange dealings with Saurreg aren't really that strange. It's merely that I became very suspicious of him after he said that his vote was unnecessary on day 1 when it looked like we might have a lot of dead villagers on our hands without more votes to break a tie. I have a pretty good reason to eliminate him from my suspect list now, which is why I'm no longer following up on that loose thread. The reason should be obvious.

If anyone's behavior has been odd recently, it has been Nilp's, for the reasons given above. I don't know that it makes him guilty though. He could just be acting like the suspicious character he always has been.

[Lalaith]

Anguirel, if you are a werewolf, your intelligence would make you a highly formidable foe. But I do not particularly suspect you.

I am somewhat suspicious of dancing spawn at the moment. But it is a hazy suspicion.
Why does Feanor tell us, when she thinks she may not be able to come back, to examine Firefoot, but then return and not mention Firefoot at all, but continue to suspect lmp?
And where is Esgal? She's got just 2 hours before voting to post....

[dancing spawn of ungoliant]

spawn - possibly innocent. But why vote for Oddie?

No reason, especially considering that I voted for Eomer...

It's nice when someone thinks that you're not guilty but I'm becoming so paranoid that I find those people suspicious. What would be a better way to buy my trust than say: "I believe spawn is innocent." No-one but the seer should have that kind of information. Of course we speculate on the basis of our gut feelings but I think the wolves might have used this tactic in the "Phantom-Eomer" incident.

I'm growing suspicious of Esgal. She hasn't posted very much (ok, neither have I but I don't suspect myself) and that vote for Oddwen bothers me a little.

(Drat! My dad needs to use our computer now so I don't have acces to online for a while but I come back as soon as I can.)

[Saurreg]

I have been scanning through the posts and my gut feeling tells me that Feanor is innocent.

Nilpaurion Felagund's behaviour is unsettling. The first two posts in this thread were great for laughs but as the posts continue, the style wears thin and I think they are no longer humorous but hints of something more mysterious, something darker.

I question of some of his deductions.

On Celuien - He questions the deal she and I made when it was obviously a one-sided affair that would not compromise the innocents. Think about it, that was a passive deal; it would only come into effect if I was executed (thankfully not) and in any case Celuien was free to continue to suspect me, nothing else. Everybody could see that.

On Feanor - Here Nilpaurion casts his finger without hesitation. I question his reasoning and indeed his motives. We have so many villagers that first round accusations are very likely to be random pokings in the dark. Then in the second round Feanor votes for Littlemanpoet whom I have already pointed out was an improbable target and rightfully so, no one followed her lead. I think she was testing the waters and picking out random targets to gauge their reactions and those of their would-be supporters/detractors. She could just as LMP mentioned, just be a little too passionately involved in the game just for fun. I read her posts and i cannot find anything substantial for such a heavy charge to be levied on her.

On Lalaith - Dear Lalaith is now in the thoughts of many including yours truly. We have mixed feelings about her real status and no one really dares to make a call. Here Nilpaurion is quite (depends on the context of "possibly" used here) certain about her innocence but gives no reason why.

On all those possibly innocents - I will not venture to say that they are guity (since we only have three wolves ) but everybody here is unsure of one another. Except for one or two individuals whom they are willing to belief in, I doubt anyone could paint "possibly innocent" on so many mysterious villagers when an "undecided" would suffice. It almost seems like a subtle endorsement short of like the one I have for Feanor.

Indeed the death of Oddwen is tragic. We must find out the motives behind those votes.

EDIT: Is it just me or based on the aboved points and others that might have eluded me, that Nilpaurion was trying to divert the course of common consent and thoughts?

[Celuien]

Currently, I do not find Lalaith, Anguirel, lmp, Evisse, or Saurreg suspicious. I'm satisifed by Lalaith's explanation regarding her late vote for Oddwen yesterday. My thoughts on Anguirel, lmp and Evisse are more of a gut feeling.

My top suspects are now (in no particular order):
1) Hookbill for the late Eomer vote and because of Eomer's denunciation.
2) Nilp for his odd behavior throughout the past two days and rather strange accusation of yours truly.

I don't know what to think of Esgal, dancing spawn, Fea or Firefoot.

I'm not really certain enough of anything to vote now. I'll be watching as the process unfolds.

Another RL notice: my schedule has changed drastically due to school starting again on Monday. I'll probably have to do all future voting quite early since my only computer time will be between 6 PM and 5 AM EDT (EDT= GMT -4 according to the board).

[Anguirel]

My thoughts run along similar lines to yours, Celuien. We should come to a decision quite soon, and for me the main suspects are Hookbill, Nilpaurion, and the spawn of ungoliant who dances...

While hanging Nilpaurion will be a relief to all our brains, innocent or guilty though he may be, I think Hookbill may be a quicker way to a similar end. Though I base my supposition only on Eomer's hunch, Hookbill's rather rash knife-twisting at Eomer, and Nilp's gleeful quintuple-bluff-laden accusation list, I cannot rest easy while the Goomba breathes...

My feelings regarding Madame Spawn are directed by her coolness and savoir-faire, her casual contributions, her easy assumption of supremacy-some of which also apply, I can see, to myself. I need more solid evidence before I accuse her.

And so, finally, I suggest that we hang Hookbill for longterm benefit, or Nilpaurion, frankly, to put our weary crania at ease.