Werewolf XXX - Tol-in-Elendili - The Isle of the Were-Faithfuls

[the guy who be short]

I'm unhappy with day one banter. Day ones almost always end in the lynching of an innocent for the most spurious evidence; thus far, I have seen nothing much condemning from anybody.

I should mention that there is a prophecy to be fulfilled. Kath is mean, and should be lynched. Well... give me a reason not to, Kathwin.

I will also say that our votes so far are for Manwe and Nogrod, who have both been loud. Other than them, suspicion seems to fall on those that are loud, simply because they have something to say. This can then be analysed and twisted, whether intentionally or not, in all sorts of ways. For this reason, I have always been more inclined to suspect the quiet, who seem to "fly under the radar".

And so I will mention with only mild suspicion (which is more than I have for anybody else) the quiet:
Holbytlass admits to being quiet.
Kath (prophecy!) hasn't said much yet.
Gil-galad has said nothing worth mentioning.
Glirdan has said little (and, on a side-note, said Adieu. Which God, eh? ) However, it interests me that among all the quiet people, people have jumped on Glirdan alone. I wonder why. I doubt it is Faithfuls, for they never seem to have coherent strategies for Day 1, wishing rather to let the ordos confuse themselves. So why have all you people jumped on Glirdan and not any of the others on this list? Roa, SpM, Durelin, this means you.
Lalaith and Mith, other than the early posts, have been very quiet.
Nothing from The Might.

I appreciate we have several hours of Daylight left, so I will not attack those who have said nothing. For all I know, they could come and say something valuable in a few hours. I am therefore most suspicious of those who have spoken without saying anything.

[Holbytlass]

It is quite the canundrum of DAY1's. Day one lynchee is usually a high poster voted for by those who wish to be helpful to the village and only rarely is a baddie caught. Quiet/nontalkers are rarely lynched as it's seen as bad form to lynch someone without giving them a chance to speak.

So at this point, all those who have been highly accused/voted for and those doing the major accusing I find innocent at this time.
namelyManwe Nogrod Lommy Durelin Rikae that's not to say that those who accused hadn't gotten a hit but we just don't know till the deed is done.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

wow there is a lot of people really confusing me. . .

People seem to be very jumpy and are reacting somewhat strongly to small things, normally I would be happy to see such actions as it is good for analyzing. This time however the people who do so are not someone I have played with before and therefor it might just be "paranoia" as Legate puts it.

I do not know what to think about Holby's post she does not say much, mostly it is just random comments, save for her thoughts on Mänwe and the votes he has gained. It just seems very neutral, but I am fearing that the main reason I look at this with suspicion is because not long ago I encountered a "Bad Holby"

Hookbill seems innocent to me and do not understand the fuzz there was made about his post.

[Kath]

I should mention that there is a prophecy to be fulfilled. Kath is mean, and should be lynched. Well... give me a reason not to, Kathwin.

And you shall have one! Go back to that thread, read the next post down and you shall find the following comment, typed by you:

Hehe, Kath, I'd never do that.

So my dear if you go against your word and vote for me on the basis of a prophecy you yourself negated, well, that wouldn't be very innocent looking now would it?

Ah so, what's been going on? Manwe seems to have got himself into quite a bit of bother. Right now I don't think it's anything suspicious. He's a newbie (right?) finding his own place in these games. I for one want to see how he behaves in later days. If it turns out that the four he named really are the Faithful's we may have another Valier on our hands! At any rate, I don't want to see him lynched at present.

Legate looks to be the self-appointed voice of reason. I'm all for making sure people don't take things too personally but with his mediating between Hookbill and Brinniel (something there was no need for) he seems to be trying to set himself up as the calm one. I don't know, I just don't like it.

Hookbill appears to be behaving normally to me. The accusations against him haven't actually been accusations in the sense that people think he's guilty (except possibly from Manwe who keeps repeating it) and he hasn't been overly defensive. His replies were amusing more than offended.

Durelin apparently flourishes without an occupation to fall back on! Perhaps we shouldn't allow her one is future games.

Got to go again. It's good that people have started to talk, we've had a comment from all but one player now is that right? Hopefully they'll have spoken by the time I get back and I'll have to whole village to have a quick look at.

[the guy who be short]

Originally Posted by Kath

So my dear if you go against your word and vote for me on the basis of a prophecy you yourself negated, well, that wouldn't be very innocent looking now would it?

Ah, but we are an island of treacherous Numenoreans! What are these values that you speak of - loyalty and integrity? Sounds mighty Faithful to me!

(I'd just like to make clear that the whole Kath-prophecy was a joke. My bone to pick with her was quietness, which she is overcoming.)

[Holbytlass]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Holby, I find it weird that you put me on that list... I mean, hardly anyone has accused me this far, and I don't think I've been accusing much either (I've just said that Rikae's a bit weird and one little comment of Nogrod's is odd)...

I merely stated a handful of names that are in the thick of things on this first day and are usually innocent. The pattern of vocals taking each other out sort of thing, as in you voting for Rikae for voting Manwe-all three of you are most likely innocent. All are vocal. But by all means I can put you on my forming suspicious list .

[The Saucepan Man]

Unfortunately, this day holds much for me on another plane of existence, so I’ll try to get my thoughts down on all that has transpired while I have been away in one go. Apologies, as always, for the length. My nickname, it seems, is well earned.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

This I would call hypochrisy indeed. You are yourself making an appearance of trying to get people speaking but nicely use the similar intentions of others as points against them...

I fail to see any hypocrisy here at all. While I am keen for people to speak as much as possible, I am content to give them more than a few hours to do so. You, on the other hand, appeared to be rather cheesed off that most of the village had not spoken in the early hours. And, as I said, I didn’t think it necessarily marked you out as a Faithful. It was, for me, simply a point to consider among the others. Now, however, I am not so sure. I find your reaction to what I would regard as a quite reasonable observation on my part quite interesting. And I note the little “dig”, questioning why I am apparently not living up to my (supposed) reputation as a “wise” player – which looks to me to be calculated to evince a reaction which you might use against me.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Now I see that some people are rather optimistic about this, and I'd like to be, too, but...that's a lot of us to just go at each other's throats, isn't it?

Indeed, I did note the haste with which some villagers sought to reassure the village of our prospects. Nogrod and Kath, I think, were the main culprits. It’s possible that one or both may be trying to lull us into a false sense of security. One should never be over-confident where Faithfuls are concerned.

Originally Posted by Mänwe

Sorry I missed this. How last did you see him?

If you mean in role-playing terms, I saw him as a disreputable and shady fellow. If you mean in terms of whether he might actually be a Faithful, he had not posted at the time of our exchange. He has now, but I see nothing overly suspicious in what he has said (other than his attempt to blackmail us by threatening slanderous stories in the press ).

Which brings me to the vexed question of Mänwe, who appears to have gathered some early suspicion. At first, I did find his posts rather strange and difficult to follow. But that may just be his style, so I am not prepared to condemn him for it without more. And, when one considers what he says more carefully, there is actually a fair degree of sense there. As for his bold early accusations, well it is a tried and tested tactic to put some names into the pot and see what reactions it provokes (let’s call it the “mormegil manoeuvre” ), so I am not too concerned about that.

What does concern me, however, is that there appear to have been a number who have championed him as a primary candidate for lynching, and I do wonder whether this might have resulted from a perception by one or more of the Faithful that his style might make him a possible Day 1 lynch. In this regard, I am rather suspicious of Legate, Kitanna and, in particular, Rikae, all of whom appear to have jumped on Rune’s tentative suspicion of Mänwe and Durelin’s early vote for him. Rikae’s vote, being as it was in her first post, was made with alarming alacrity (although I accept that it is retractable).

I am also slightly concerned at the way that Glirdan appears to have been targeted, by Nogrod in particular, without him actually having said very much. While his insubstantial first post annoyed me too, I don’t see it as any particular reason to suspect him, without more. I wonder whether he too may have been targeted as a potential easy Day 1 lynch. And, for the record TGWBS, I did not “jump” on Glirdan, but merely (like you) mentioned him, along with Kath, as one of those who had posted, but without much substance (Holbytlass and Gil-Galad had not posted by that stage). Nogrod, on the other hand, appears to have gone further and perceived sinister motives behind Glirdan’s inconsequential offering.

Originally Posted by Holbytlass

So at this point, all those who have been highly accused/voted for and those doing the major accusing I find innocent at this time.
namelyManwe Nogrod Lommy Durelin Rikae that's not to say that those who accused hadn't gotten a hit but we just don't know till the deed is done.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Holby, I find it weird that you put me on that list... I mean, hardly anyone has accused me this far, and I don't think I've been accusing much either (I've just said that Rikae's a bit weird and one little comment of Nogrod's is odd)...

I found Holby’s list rather strange too, as it did not really reflect fully my understanding of those who have been doing the most accusing and/or been under the most suspicion. Also, she does rather avoid drawing any conclusion with the statement: “but we just don't know till the deed is done”. How is that supposed to help us?

In conclusion, based on what has occurred so far, Nogrod and Rikae look the most suspicious to me. I still have in mind Mithalwen’s early comment about Faithful/Gifted behaviour, but much has happened since then, and I am inclined to view it for now (and without more) as a “first post” statement designed to get discussion underway.

[Gil-Galad]

i would like to jump on to holby's statement of being quiet, i more commonly don't say much worth mentioning till later in the week(if you will), so this early i'm not much help at all...


i feel that Manwe is gaining a bit too much suspicion... and i don't feel his wolfish tendacies, here follows my wolfish hunches, remember they are just hunches


Saucepanman
Hookbill
TGWBS
Rikae

remember, they are hunches but my hunches have wierd ways of working them out

[Hookbill the Goomba]

Originally Posted by Kath

Hookbill appears to be behaving normally to me... His replies were amusing more than offended.

Well, you've got to keep a light heart. I mean, it's not as if it's a matter of life and death... erm... wait... yes it is!

Originally Posted by The Lord Saucepan

I fail to see any hypocrisy here at all. While I am keen for people to speak as much as possible, I am content to give them more than a few hours to do so. You, on the other hand, appeared to be rather cheesed off that most of the village had not spoken in the early hours.

I agree, and don't forget to factor in Time difference. A lot of posts happened while I was asleep!

Originally Posted by Panman

other than his attempt to blackmail us by threatening slanderous stories in the press

Don't think I won't. *writes down 'Saucepan man in 'eats house' scandal'*

At the moment, I cannot see that anyone has given any real reason to be voted for the lynching. It is early days, mind you and I am a terrible judge of character. Manwe made some off handed comments which I will put down to, well, a momentary lack of tact or something. But then again, it could be engineered to look like that... or it may be a triple bluff and... I don't know... I'll get back to you on this...