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Visit The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page |
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#1 | ||
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Darn shared computer and most of all the timetables - and clock anyway! I try to look at some things briefly now. I will be back later, although in the middle of RL rush. Still I try to find some time to sit down for at least one good while. It's so frustrating to have one's last Day alive in the middle of gazillions of hindrances...
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#2 | |
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Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Okay, that last minute Brinniel thing confused me just as much as the last minute try-to-save Roa thing did. Again, it was like people were trying to rescue Rune, rather than vote for who they were actually suspicious of. I am really bothered by how people, even if they speak their own minds, do not back it up with a vote. Rather than voting for who they find suspicious, they vote for just who "looks like they can be lynched," who maybe they suspect a little, maybe even more than a little...but all the while their top suspect is forgotten, and all the analysis or what have you they did against them becomes meaningless.
Please, please - everyone. We have to get a wolf toDay (duh, I know), so please vote for who you think is suspicious, and not just who is convenient. I am not going to get over Mith, I'm sorry. I just don't get her attitude. She's making as big of a fuss as possible over the state of the village at every turn, but not doing much about it. The past two Days she's rushed in at the last minute to save first a probable Cobbler and then an at that time unknown from lynching. YesterDay she specifically switched her vote to do so from Lalaith. She switched her vote from Lalaith to match Lalaith's. Eh? The Brinniel bandwagon really started with a simple spite vote from Rune. It's absurd. Yes I suspected her a bit, but obviously I didn't see a reason to lynch her immediately...and no one seemed to give much of a reason, either. Lalaith: "I don't much like the choices we've got but like I said before, it's a toss-up for me between her and Manwe, and I don't think Rune's guilty." Lommy: "of my suspects she can be lynched" Mith gives no reason for her switched vote, and Legate, though he at least seems to have been fairly "sure" of her guilt, doesn't give a reason for his certainty. Not all of those people can be wolves, so it seems some of the innocents in this game are using as many underhanded tactics as the wolves likely are, strategizing their lynch targets based on who can be lynched. Lommy - I thought I explained my Day 1 vote in the very post my vote was in, but when I look back at the actual post...obviously, I wasn't very clear. But I talked about "stirring things up" in my previous post, so if you think I was explaining it away later, at least I was consistent, eh? I swear no one's paid attention to me in games in a while. Because unless I'm going completely crazy, I know that voting early when I don't have to is something I sometimes do, just to see what happens. Quote:
Edit: Crossed with Nog and Gil |
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#3 | |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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So we should not lynch Spm and conveniently she forgets that I have also suspected Spm from Day1 on quite openly. I think I was indeed the first to suspect him with anything like a point added... So do we have three wolves in a list of Spm, tgwbs, Durelin...? Oh you can't be that easy to pick now! Where's the sport now? Or maybe it was the first actual choice you Faithfuls had to make that just revealed you as you had to try and make it good? Okay. I'm off for a while but if you will pay heed to an innocent's point of view, think closely before you let these three to turn your minds. If they are the Faithfuls they're surely be honey-tongued and reasonable. No doubt. tgwbs: how about a short list now? One that the known innocent gives consisting of you three?
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#4 |
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Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Nogrod - SPM's wording, particularly what you highlighted there, indeed seems to scream *ploy*. The subtlety of it makes it so...well, blatant. But I don't follow your logic much further. I think it's very odd for anyone to bring up the "oh, lad-dee-da, I wonder why I haven't been killed yet... *whistles*" (and lord, particularly when the wolves have only made one free choice on kills, as you said), but you also seem to venture into the idea that SPM or someone else considered *dangerous* should have been killed in the Night. But it's the smartest thing for the wolves to leave alive those who have gotten/are getting at least some suspicion. As you've said, they've only made one "free" choice, so why would they take out someone who might get lynched?
I think I'm reading that wrong, so perhaps you shouldn't waste your time explaining that I am. ![]() Edit: Crossed with Nog, again. |
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#5 |
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Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Nogrod - In what you quote, I was explaining myself to Lommy, not expressing my [edit: current] opinions on SPM, and certainly not in response to your post. If I didn't know you were innocent, I'd say you were "grasping."
![]() What if I did say I didn't think we should lynch SPM? What does that really say? I certainly put weight in your opinions, and you are a valuable ally, but you are not the Seer. I'll think for myself, as well. Something that so far has been difficult, and left us in this boat of 9 against 4. If we do have a wolf in SPM or TGWBS, though, we'll be in a much better one. |
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#6 | |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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But what I can see from your reactions? Well they don't exactly dispel my suspicions... quite on the contrary. It's so nice to get comfirmation to ones suspicions...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#7 |
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Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Thulcandra
Posts: 2,343
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Lalaith
20 posts from her. From Day 2:
Post 139 - Says we should look at Garin voters. Confused that Holby wasn't a wolf. Post 144 - Confused about why the wolves went for Rikae as they should know the Ranger would protect her. Post 153 - Says Rikae was safe, but she switched vote just in case. Post 222 - Says she finds it too unlikely that Rikae is not the Seer. This is what an innocent would say. Post 301 - Suggests that the known innocent chooses the lynching target - this is foolish and seems Faithful to me. Post 306 - Nothing much. Post 347 - Says she did not advise a Nogrod-led lynch, but that we should consider it. Post 358 - Analysis of everybody. Suspects brinniel, durelin, me. Mildly suspects Legate, Manwe. Finds innocent Gil-Galad, Hookbill, Lommy. Neutral about Kath, Kitanna, Mith, Rune, SpM. Post 367 - Says if she's lynched, look at those who voted for her. Post 372 - Nothing much. Post 374 - Supports Lommy's innocence. Post 393 - Says she doesn't think Rune is a wolf, so she'll vote for brinniel or manwe, her top-running candidates. I also don't like the way people vote not for their top candidates, but who looks lynchable. This isn't British politics - go for your top suspect. Post 400 - Votes Brinniel but doesn't like the choices - i.e. Brinniel, Rune, Manwe. Posts 451-2 Confusion about Manwe's position. What struck me going over was the overwhelming brevity of Lal's post. Though a comparatively frequent poster, only one of her posts was more than about six lines long. Again, I get the feeling she's keeping a presence without saying much. I don't like the way she didn't vote for who she found most suspicious either. She also seems a little paranoid about being lynched - the "look at those who voted for me" post. Why? Her behaviour has also been suspicious - the subtle suggestion that Nogrod should choose one lynching candidate, the way she switched her vote to Manwe to "save Rikae" and wondering why the wolves went for Rikae - a classic wolf bluff. Quite suspicious, I think. That concludes my analyses of all my neutrals yesterday. Here is a renewed table of suspicion: Faithful-seeming Manwe Gil-Galad Lalaith Slightly suspicious Lommy Legate Hookbill Don't really know Kath Durelin More innocent than faithful Kitanna Probably innocent SpM Mith |
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#8 |
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Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Thulcandra
Posts: 2,343
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We've been through three quarters of our day, and a frightening proportion of us have said absoultely nothing.
Even before I read the two posts above, I considered that the Faithful could very easily be several quiet villagers lying low and letting the loud get themselves killed. This would be a brilliant tactic because it's proven to work. On the basis that Manwe might still pull out, and if he does, a vote for him would be wasted, I now vote for my second suspect: ++GIL-GALAD |
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#9 | |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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So the possibility of him being lynched is overtly thin indeed (no pun intended ). That's one of the main reasons - not the only one - I'm getting assured he's a Faithful. Also, please Durelin, list me the names of those who have not gotten "at least some suspicion" around here... So what do you have for the Faithfuls to "leave alive those who have gotten/are getting at least some suspicion"? Should they have abstained from killing anyone? And whom would you... *coughsorrycough* ... the Faithfuls not see alive? How is it that he's alive and you are defending him again? It's a sad thing to see one digging her own grave but when it's one of them terrible Faithfuls I must say we true Numenorians rejoice in all this... ![]() Nice to see things unfolding after so long time of darkness and doubt... EDIT: X'd with Durelin
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#10 |
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Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Considering the number of people, including myself, who have not even had a vote for them yet, I'd say there are quite a few who could fall under the "haven't really gotten suspicion" category.
I have been in games with SPM before, and I recall one in which I helped in his lynching on Day 3 or 4, as a bumbling innocent. A Ranger, I think. I'm not defending SPM, Nogrod; I have a problem with your logic. And if I'm "digging my own grave," then so be it. At least I'm still free of my Day/Night 3 curse. Edit: Crossed again |
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#11 | ||
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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When I come back I'll try to have some minutes for this logic-stuff too. It's just outrageous what tgwbs passes forwards with the epithet of logic. Quote:
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#12 | |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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Now where is the common good, the good of the villagers? You need to fight better than this...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#13 | |
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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![]() They (the innocents) suspect you or people in general and you (the faithfuls) scheme around and orchestrate the things? Well there is and end to that and it's here. Three of you are caught. We only need the fourth one...
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#14 |
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Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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I'm going to sleep.
(Anything wolfish there, Nogrocissist?) |
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#15 | |||||
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Flame of the Ainulindalë
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I just had time to pop in and reread toDay and update myself. I'm off for a while again but will be back and hopefully have some time to try and figure out even something out of this mess we're in.
I just wish to show you this that somehow escaped me earlier. Quote:
But then she continues. Quote:
Confused... Quote:
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It's good to see you and Spm so helpful toDay! Time to make an impression? ![]() Quote:
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Upon the hearth the fire is red Beneath the roof there is a bed; But not yet weary are our feet... |
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#16 | |
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Shadowed Prince
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: Thulcandra
Posts: 2,343
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So far, Lommy, Legate, Kath and you (Nogrod) have accused me of supporting a shortlist. If I'm uptight, it's because people seem to have a shared delusion that I, at some point, said "Hey guys! Let's all vote from a shortlist selected by the known innocents, despite the maths."
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#17 |
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Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Lunch over.
![]() So here, as promised, is my analysis of the Day 3 votes TGWBS: Voted for Brinniel on the basis that she was neither for nor against lynching Roa. Subsequently switched to Manwe on the basis that he thought him trying to sow seeds of doubt in the villager’s mind about Rikae. I don’t find the switch particularly suspicious, as there was little suggestion at the time that Brinniel would end up being lynched. However, I am rather dubious about his reasoning for voting for Manwe. Manwe was strongly in favour of lynching Roa because he thought that she was lying, but thought it was also a good idea even admitting the small possibility that she was not. I rather agree with his (Manwe’s) reasoning. I still have some suspicion of TGWBS, because I am concerned that he may have been twisting Manwe‘s words here. Kitanna: Voted for Hookbill for seeming to hide behind a “mask of newbieness” and consistently claiming to be a bad judge of character. I cannot fault her reasoning, as I am uneasy about Hookbill for the same reason. However, Hookbill is one of those who has been bubbling under in the village’s suspicions, but with little prospect of attracting too many votes. And, despite being plagued by blizzards, there was always a possibility that she could return and switch her vote, if necessary. I have concerns that Kitanna may well be a "slip under the radar" Faithful and, of all the Day's votes, this one looks the safest Faithful vote to me. It may even have been a Faithful-on-Faithful vote. Kath: Voted for Rune for safe voting and for casting suspicion without much reasoning. I found Rune suspicious for much the same reason. She put Rune ahead here, with 2 votes, and, in light of her vote, I doubt that a Faithful Kath would have advocated killing Rune in the Night. Also, she gives a long analysis of all the villagers and states where she stand with each one before voting, which makes me feel better about her. Inclined to think her innocent at present. Mithalwen: Voted for Lalaith on the basis of previously stated suspicions, and then switches to Brinniel because she thought her more suspicious than Rune. Her vote for Lalaith was not particularly safe, given that there was a fair amount of suspicion around Lal at the time. I am concerned about the bandwaggon that suddenly gathered around Brinniel at the end, although I am not sure that a Faithful would have had much to gain by being included in it. That said, whoever speculated that the Brinniel voters had good reason to kill Rune in the Night had a good point and I do think that there was one Faithful, possibly two, among the last minute Brinniel voters. I don’t, however, think it was Mith, as she has not been acting like I would expect a Faithful Mith to act. Durelin: Voted for Rune on the basis that he was her original suspect of the Day and she had “seen this kind of Rune before”, putting him 2 votes ahead of anyone else. I do find Durelin suspicious and her run-in with Nogrod earlier toDay does not reassure me, as it may have been a Faithful attempt to associate herself with an innocent. Like Kath, I do wonder whether a Faithful Durelin would have been so bold as to kill Rune in the Night, after this vote. That said, if there was a Faithful among the Rune voters, I think this to be the one. Still looking very suspicious to me. Lalaith: Voted for Brinniel, bringing her to 2 votes. She said that she didn’t much like the choices, but that it was a toss-up between Brinniel and Manwe as she didn’t find Rune suspicious. Now, there was inevitably a bit of confusion surrounding these last minute votes and switches. But this was the vote that started the slide towards Brinniel’s lynching. As such, it looks more suspicious to me than those which came later. I also don’t really like the comment about disliking the choices. It may well have been intended to give the option of distancing herself from the situation if Brinniel was lynched and found innocent (as happened). Lalaith remains high in my suspicions. Lommy: Voted for Brinniel, saying that, of those she found suspicious, only she could be lynched. Much the same applies as with regard to Lalaith above. I am certain that either Lalaith or Lommy is a Faithful and, since they have both been defending each other every so often, I wonder whether they both might be. If so, both voting for Brinniel at this stage was dangerous but, given the timing, it may well have been a cross-post and retracting would have looked even more suspicious. Legate: Voted for Brinniel, although I am not entirely sure from his reasoning why. This followed an analysis of each villager. My concerns over Legate yesterDay were based on the fact that he seems to say a lot without saying much. His analysis does not ease my concerns in that regard. His vote for Brinniel was a cross-post so, if he is a Faithful, he may have unintentionally voted here with one of his friends. Still looking suspicious to me. Hookbill: Voted for Manwe because of a hunch that he was untrustworthy, putting him on 3 votes. Given the confusion, I am not sure that this was the safe vote it might otherwise seem (Brinniel was on 5 votes at the time). That said, I remain suspicious that he has given very little away about what he thinks and has voted for Manwe on both Days that he has voted without really giving any solid reasons. I am still wary of him. Based on that and my previous thinking, my current list is as follows: Suspicious Lalaith Durelin Lommy Kitanna Somewhat suspicious TGWBS Hookbill Legate No idea Gil-Galad Inclined to think innocent Manwe Kath Mithalwen Innocent Nogrod Does anyone know if Manwe is still playing? I missed all the furore on the Admin thread. Even if not, I guess we won’t know his innocence or guilt until toNight? Mac? |
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#18 | ||
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Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Quote:
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#19 |
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Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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Am I the only one here?
I’ve been thinking further about that last minute flurry of votes for Brinniel yesterDay. It can’t really be described as a “bandwaggon” because we have four votes for her which effectively look to have been cast at more or less the same time: those of Lalaith, Lommy, Mith and Legate. It would have been dangerous for the Faithfuls to be caught in a bandwaggon which led to the lynching of an innocent but, since this was not really a bandwaggon, different considerations apply. It seems to me quite likely that one Faithful, and possibly two, were caught up in that last minute Brinniel vote. And, as I indicated earlier, to retract would have been even more dangerous for a Faithful. Of the Brinniel voters, I find Lalaith and Lommy the most suspicious, for reasons earlier stated. Legate is a distinct possibility too. I am still inclined to think Mith innocent. But I am currently in a quandary over whom to vote for. On the one hand, I feel sure that either Lalaith or Lommy is a Faithful and I am most inclined to vote for one of these two. On the other hand, I am most uncomfortable about the way that Durelin was defending me against Nogrod earlier toDay. While Nogrod’s case against me, quite apart from being wrong, makes little sense, I am always rather dubious when I am defended by another villager in this way, particularly when it comes from someone over whom I am already suspicious. I am concerned that, seeing that I might be lynched, it may have been an attempt to associate herself with me, or at least to deter me from voting for her. And on the third hand (if I may be allowed such a thing ), I am becoming increasingly concerned that one or two of the Faithfuls may be “fly under the radar” types. I have come across such types a few times before, usually to my (and the village’s detriment). In this regard, I am particularly concerned about Kitanna, who has contributed relatively little, voted relatively safely (Garin, a no vote and Hookbill) and generally steered well clear of suspicion. I am also wary of Hookbill and Legate, as I have said. And I am distinctly uncomfortable that we have practically nothing to go on with Gil-Galad. Even his voting gives little away.I need to think this all through much more, but I currently remain undecided between these possibilities. |
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#20 | ||
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Child of the West
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Watching President Fillmore ride a unicorn
Posts: 2,132
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Well the blizzards have stopped, but my access for the next few Days will be limited. So I'll try to do what I can now while I still have time.
Anywho, in one of his first posts of the day tgwbs suggested this as to why Rune was killed: Quote:
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I still retain my suspicions of Hookbill, but I'd like to take a closer look at what happened at the end of yesterday. All the hubbub that caused the lynching of Brinniel.
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"Let us live so that when we come to die even the undertaker will be sorry." - Mark Twain |
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#21 | |
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Estelo dagnir, Melo ring
Join Date: Oct 2002
Posts: 3,063
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Durelin's responses point to a tired Durelin who was not in the mood for nonsense. And I'm still not, because I woke up with a sinus headache as usual.
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I know I am expected to ignore you, or respond more "calmly," or what have you...but the issue here is not "omg, you think I'm guilty?! moi?" It's not like I've never been suspected before. The issue is first that you are being illogical, and second that you are behaving pompously. I think the fact that the Seer so often dreams of you is going to your head. I may not be a mathematician like TGWBS, but I am at least a self-proclaimed philosopher. We have way too many no-posters. I can just see the wolves sitting back and laughing as they watch Nogrod on his tirade making their job easy for them. My main suspects are: Mith - For what I stated in my first post toDay. Lalaith - For leading the last minute Brinniel lynch pack. Legate - For sliding by thus far and saying he was voting for Brinniel because he was suspicious of her, and not explaining why. SPM - For his "oh my goodness, why am I alive?" thing and his Lommy - Her "of my suspects, she can be lynched" thing. Maybe there's a bit of spite involved? Maybe. Yes, five. Why? Because unlike some people, I am not under the delusion that I am the Seer and have dreamed of enough people to know who for certain who the four wolves are. It always comes down to Days like these, where everyone's like "we have to get a wolf, cause, duh, otherwise we're really screwed," and there are many times everyone even says "oh please hold your votes as long as you can and consider as carefully as you can," but it never turns out that way. Everyone jumps on something, and then it's all downhill from there. So, I say again: first, everyone please try to vote toDay. Second, vote for who you think/feel is suspicious. If you think I'm suspicious, fine. Vote for me. But don't just vote for whoever Nogrod tells you to vote for. *cough*don'tbeaGil*cough* ![]() Edit: Crossed with Saucie. He's as bad as Nogrod.
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#22 | ||
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Corpus Cacophonous
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: A green and pleasant land
Posts: 8,390
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You are seriously confusing me here, Durelin, and its not making me feel any better about you. First, you leap to my defence against Nogrod's poor "because he's still alive" case. Then you accuse me on the same basis. Quote:
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