Werewolf Four and Thirty: Bloodbath in the Anduin Vale

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, I think that's not much of a good idea. If it's not a Bear, it's most likely an innocent assassin (nice combination of words) who is on our side, and an innocent certainly wouldn't want him to be discovered. Only a wolf (and not even a bear, since the answer would be himself) would advice such a thing. Should I start suspecting you, Volo?

I said something like that? *slap* My mistake. We could all think about that quietly.

Originally Posted by Kath

We started with a Day phase and usually any Seerish kind of activity takes place at Night so I think it rather unlikely that Durelin had any extra information at all, let alone on me.

But she would dream of you last Night. Whatever she did, she probably caused her own death by it, targeting a Wolf. That is why you are suspicious, Kath.

Hmm...

[Volo]

Hmm... Been thinking ovet the three cases of Kath, Nogrod and Rikae, again.

Case Kath deffinitely feels most innocent of them all. Except that she doesn't look the same as the innocent Kath I know, not enough praise.

Case Nogrod looks the most suspicious. His posts are all extremely amusing and make you smile, but that is the problem. He reminds me of the Wolf Nogrod, a lot of wise words that in truth have very little meaning.
#9: amusing, but for those that go for cobbler-hints, this seems to be full of them. Two far-out suspicions, a bit too brave maybe, but that is exactly what Nogrod can be. Ok, I do see that they are sent to two quiet players and might *cough* encourage them to speak. The part about Menel isn't interesting.
Then there are many posts that speak for his innocence, especially #91. That feels genuine.
A few good points come next. Haha, funny, how I first suspected him for not having good points in every post like in my first game when he was a Wolf.
But then comes #111 and completely baffles me. He pretty much says the same thing to every vote. "Could be Wolf or Innocent." The tone changes for a few players, but this post genuinely feels like a filler.
His vote also makes me wonder, especially if Izzie is a Wolf. (Or then my first game just left a too strong impression.) A good trick, to vote just after a fellow and make it look like a cross-post tie.
On Day2, he is lucky to be the first one to tell his thoughts on the narration. I don't really know how to take it... I do like his idea about Kath though.
#144 is a wierd post of explaining own actions. It looks very jumpy, as there is no real accusation on the matter, or even small accusation for the matter.

Oh, damn. I really wrote a too long post there... Anyway, I tried saying that from a "neutral perspective", to give others something to think on, as I myself don't trust my feelings enough yet. I don't want to vote Nogrod for just my own thoughts.

Case Rikae. Well, I had something I wanted to say about her, but I forgot... Looks innocent, altough a bit defencive. I'll say more if remember what to say.

At the moment I'm most inclined to vote Kath out of the three. Nogrod's point about Durelin going after her is one of the main motivations.

That doesn't mean I'll certainly vote Kath. Some quiet person, like Izzie could be one... I'll see to the rest and go eat something, I'm starving.


EDIT: Xd with everything since my last post.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Lommy

Volo, to be honest you slightly annoy me. (Even though your "" was quite heart-breaking... ) I never know whether you suspect or suspect people, if you know what I mean. Your tactics give you a perfect cover. That's not a good thing because others can't figure out anything about you nor decide are you innocent or not. Others have raised good points on the issue and I won't be repeating them. There's one more, minor point however. It's always easier for wolves to come up with people they can reasonably think innocent than people who they could reasonably hold suspicious. So, by suspecting innocent-looking people a Volf could get an all-too-big drop of sincerity to his posts.

Haha. ha... Well, I really messed that one up. I realized after deciding that this is exactly that, a perfect cover for a Baddie. But, since I posted about this in the Admin-thread before we got the roles, I think it is cleared.

I don't think we should waste a vote on Gil-Galad be he Wolf or Innocent. If he survives to the end, we can just say that "We won't give you any credit for not even being present ".

[Volo]

Ok, let's be honest. Main suspects:
Kath as the Bear.
Nogrod as a Wolf.

[Kath]

Love you too morm.

Aganzir - defends Fea. Had Menel down as innocent but with it being so early in the game those without extra knowledge couldn't have known he was a wolf. But then, she got xyzzy and Rune down as innocents correctly too. Chance or something more? Actually I think it is just chance. Aganzir is a fine werewolf player from what I've seen of her and I don't think that if she is a wolf she'd give such a 'he's innocent' statement about Menel. Thinks Shasta and Volo are the ones that look most suspicious and could vote for the former.

Guy - feels Noggie, Boro and Rune are innocent all with some reasoning behind it. I may disagree with it but it makes him look innocent.

Lommy - says she can't really find anyone to suspect bar xyzzy and Boro, and the cases against those two aren't good. Does no one else feel that she's a bit off? I usually find that she feels very innocent, admittedly even when she is a wolf, so this seems odd to me.

Mith - does agree that loud players are more useful than quiet ones, but says it's too early to really be worrying about it. Says she was mentioning me rather than suspecting me though I might still be evil, but it's the hasty votes that merit the most attention. She was the one that noted the possible meaning within Sauce's narration, picking out some pretty interesting and possible points.

Volo - argues against the voting for the unhelpful or quiet players. Odd statement about Lommy always voting xyzzy with no reason when she had just avoided doing that before turning that on it's head and saying that actually he does think xyzzy is suspicious. It isn't the flip flop that I don't like but rather the comment to Lommy. She had specifically avoided voting xyzzy for no reason so why say it? Decides he won't vote Nogrod because when he looks guilty he's generally innocent. Well, he said he was going to use odd logic. Which apparently includes defending me. I don't think Volo has ever been on my side before! Says Rikae feels like wolf-Rikae so he won't vote her either. This is actually quite irritating this new tactic, mostly because he isn't giving any reasons for his suspicions. Uses his mad logic to think that Rikae and guy are the ones that seem suspicious, but says he doesn't want to vote for guy. Then votes guy. Interesting flip flop, perhaps he's taking lessons from Lommy. I hope Volo starts to put some more understandable logic in soon, I'm having trouble following him.

Legate - says only later in the game will he advocate killing the quiet ones but does mention that Izzie turned up and then disappeared again which he finds irresponsible. It's an odd word to use but then Legate is prone to using long words. Thinks xyzzy innocent but finds Noggie, Lommy and Menel suspicious. Looks pretty innocent to me so far. Weird post where he first says that he thinks lynching the quiet ones early is a good idea, but then turns around completely and says actually no it isn't. This feels more like a train of thought post to me, where as he was writing he changed his mind. Only thing is that it started off as a defense against guy saying he was in fact arguing against Rune when previously he'd said he was agreeing with him. And then he says why not lynch morm, totally getting the wrong stick of guy's argument (at least the way I see it). Not sure if this is confused innocent or twisting wolf.

Rikae - defends herself against my earlier suspicion pretty calmly, and then adds on her own suspicion of me. In fairness it's probably merited since my suspicion of her was based on a readthrough that had only taken tone into account not content. Says xyzzy could be worth voting for but doesn't really seem to think he's suspicious which is a bit odd.

Boro - is somewhat suspicious of Mith for mentioning that the first poster has been found to be wolvish in the past. There was once a summary looking at that which I think found that the first poster could be pretty much anything, so Boro might actually have something there. I always find it odd when Mith uses statistical type arguments to support what she's saying, it doesn't feel like something she'd do. Still, the last time I said that she ended up being the Seer or something, so I'll let it go. Says to let everyone do their own thing as if we come up with a plan it will give the wolves an advantage since they'll know what we're doing. This is a good point. Plans are only ever useful if you have known innocents and Gifted's to ensure the wolves can't use it to their own ends, and hopefully we won't have either for a while yet, so long as we don't go and force a Gifted to reveal so early.

Menel - voted xyzzy.

Fea - makes a lot of lists. I never can get a read on her. Votes xyzzy because she has no one better to vote for, suggesting that her list where she put Mith and morm as 'blood-stained' wasn't really based on anything.

Rune - says he won't vote Menel as he often does and finds him innocent, but that he's less worried about suspecting Boro because he turns out to be guilty more often. Then votes Durelin for no real reason. The narration seems to suggest Rune was attacked by the wolves, and really it does make sense. He'd not said much, mostly commenting on the quiet/loud debate and making non-commital comments about people. No trail.

Guy - votes Durelin after previously using his 'random number generator' to end up with her name and then said he was doing it in order to lynch the quiet ones. Coming up with two reasons just to randomly lynch someone seems odd to me.

Ok I'm being called off to eat dinner now and then I believe we have a film to watch. I've got to post 90 now and I may finish this when I get back but to be honest I'm getting bored of it so I can't imagine how dull everyone else is finding it. I'll probably just try and organise my thoughts as to what I think of who. Should be back around 10.

[the guy who be short]

I have just got net access and have read up to the end of page 4. I don't know how long I'll be able to stay, but I thought I'd point this out, from Wikipedia:

The Thief may remove [a] person's role entirely

That's what durelin was. It now seems unlikely that this MADE the wolves kill her. It seems more of a coincidence.

Also, I was wary about Legate yesterday towards the end of the day but never got a chance to post. If I have time, I'll go back and explain why.

[the guy who be short]

P.S. Thus far Rikae and Kath "feel" innocent, while Isabellya's vote worries me. That is all.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Noggin

Now what is this??? I might understand an innocent newbie saying something like this and then learn from it for the next time. I mean this is just impossible with Kath...

For those not experienced enough the following: Rule #6 for innocents - If you think you find someone acting or behaving like a gifted shut your mouth and do not share it openly to the baddies to notice (it's possible they have not noticed it).

Well, Nogrod, while I have thought Kath rather suspicious, it seemed pretty obvious here that what Kath is suggesting is not that Aganzir was a seer, but that a lupine Aganzir tied her pack-mate Menel with two innocents to make him look pure as the driven snow in the event of the others' death.

EDIT: By "tied", I mean, of course, linked. The idea being others will associate the three because Aganzir did, possibly without thinking about it.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, Nogrod, while I have thought Kath rather suspicious, it seemed pretty obvious here that what Kath is suggesting is not that Aganzir was a seer, but that a lupine Aganzir tied her pack-mate Menel with two innocents to make him look pure as the driven snow in the event of the others' death.

That's perfectly sensible interpretation of Kath's post. Better than mine indeed.

Admittedly there aren't many who think Aganzir suspicious in this village but I guess everyone agrees that she is both smart and cabable. It is a different thing whether Agan is innocent as such but for a cobbler any smart players who are generally thought innocentish are the ones the cobbler would love to drag down...

Thank's to your correction I think Kath looks even more cobblerish right now.

[Rikae]

Actually, I rather suspect Agan. This is what puts me in a difficult spot...Aganzir and Kath both look questionable to me. As do you, for that matter.

[the guy who be short]

Looking back with today's knowledge, I can't find whatever it was that made me suspec Legate. In fact, he seems quite sensible and trustable now, which makes me wary of those who voiced suspicion of him today: Lommy, but also Rikae and Kath, whom I have completely changed my mind about now!

Especially this:

Only thing is that it started off as a defense against guy saying he was in fact arguing against Rune when previously he'd said he was agreeing with him. And then he says why not lynch morm, totally getting the wrong stick of guy's argument (at least the way I see it). (Kath on Legate)

Referring to:

Originally Posted by Legate

btw why don't you lynch morm then? It will be the most logical, because he didn't appear yet! (<=this is a joke, of course, but it has logic in it: if I were for the idea you present here, I'd lynch him, since he didn't say anything, point.)

Clearly marked as a joke, and yet she fails to put this on her analysis. In conclusion, my views have gone topsy turvy: now Legate good, Kath bad!

I also do think that Menel would probably try to get us to lynch the quiet if his fellow(s) were loud. So we should be looking for (a) loud wolfie(s).

[the guy who be short]

++KATHWIN

Because she's probably a wolf, and nobody is saying much so I want to go do something else now.

[Mithalwen]

On the subject of worrying votes- why did Nogrod leave his vote so late - given that in the event of a tie the first gets the chop. He literally left it to the last minute. I know he often does but with fixed votes there is less reason too. A ot of brinkmanship going on?

[Mithalwen]

That is a bit peverse TGWBS considering you just said she seemed innocent!

[Mithalwen]

Oh I see you explained .... sort of... must stop reading backwards through the thread .. keep getting hold of sticks by the wrong end...