Tol-in-Gaurhoth XXXVI Game Thread

[The Saucepan Man]

I cannot believe that Holby was the Seer again!

The first time that I modded, she was the Seer and also the first time that I was a Wolf, and I think that she has been a Seer two other times as well. When I was a Wolf, by sheer chance, we killed her the first Night. So, at least she got a chance to wreak her vengeance upon me this time round.

A short but sweet game, and congratulations to my fellow Wolves. I could not believe it when I logged on on Day 3 to see that you had left Holby alive. A bold strategy, but one which paid off (albeit with a little help from the wild card that is Gil-Galad ).

Congratulations also to the villagers, and particularly Holby, since you rallied well after a shaky start. I knew that I had little chance of surviving once you revealed and outed me as a Wolf, Holby, but I had to give it a go. As phantom rightly observed, it would have been too much of a coincidence to declare myself as the Seer (although it would have made four Seer declarations in the game), so I pinned my hope on the cautious "real Seer" approach.

I shall post our Wolfish plotting from Nights 1 and 2 as, with Kath absent for Night 1, there is not too much of it. That, I hope, will explain our kill choices on both those Nights and also why I felt unable to go for the quadruple lynch at the end of Day 2.

In the meantime, many thanks to Fea and Boro for modding such a great game. I must admit that I was somewhat daunted to be a Wolf yet again, as I had less time available to me than I would have liked (hence my relative quietness). But it was great fun nonetheless.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

Greetings fellow Wolves. [Smilie]

Well that went rather well, didn't it? Completely fortuitous of course. I had no idea about Mith's vote when I cast mine and fully expected at least one of the other three votes to come in before the deadline.

I might come under some pressure for having caused the tie, but Mith's in the same boat, and I can quite genunely disavow any intention to create a tie.

So, who to kill?

It doesn't look like the Seer had a dream before the game begun, although we can't be sure. Assuming not, however, it will be difficult to find any Seer clues in the Day 1 proceedings. I certainly have no idea.

My first instinct is to do away with the phantom, as he is such a danger. But he would expect me to go for him, so leaving him be might help get him on my side. If he is the Seer, he is quite likely to dream of me, but that would at least help us spot him. In any event, I would prefer to leave him alive for now. If he's not the Seer, I think that I can probably build up a rapport with him, which would work greatly in out favour.

Mith's a possibility, as she has a knack of spotting a Wolfish Sauce, but I think that I would be able to tell if she was the Seer. Lal's also a possibility, but I haven't played with her before, so would prefer to keep her alive.

Gil and Shasta we should leave, unless they exhibit Seer tendencies, as they are distinct lynch possibilities for the erratic behaviour and quietness. No point in killing Holby, as she is away for Day 2.

Which I think leaves Brinniel, who I think is a distinct possibility for our kill. She didn't say a lot, voted Menel, and she could even be the Seer. She would be my pick, but would like to hear your thoughts.

With best wishes from your partner in crime.

So, Holby's Day 2 absence put her out of the running for the Night 1 kill and I must admit that I saw nothing Seerish in her Day 1 contributions. It seems that I was wrong and that she had already had a dream, and dreamed of me, before the game started. She did well not to give it away, as we would probably have gone for her on Night 1 had there been any indication that she thought me a Wolf. Her first post, naming all three Wolves, I took to be mere early game banter, and so didn't really think much more of it until I tried to use it on Day 3.

Originally Posted by The Wolf of Despair

I'll agree to that idea. I'm not really picking up any sort of feeling from anyone else at the moment, and I doubt I will since it is only Day/Night 1.

If nothing else strikes me in the time from the sending of this message to the near-end of the Night, I'll surely be on-board for killing Brinniel tonight.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

OK, unless Kath has any strong views, I'll PM Brinniel's name to Fea and B88 about an hour before the deadline.

Any thoughts on strategy? Given what happened on Day 1, I suggest simply playing it by ear again. I accused you both early on yesterDay with a view to distancing us. I might continue toMorrow if the opportunity presents itself and it doesn't look like either of you are in danger of being lynched. Of course, if either of you are in serious danger of being lynched I won't hesitate to vote for you. [Wink]

Then again, you should do the same if the roles are reversed.

Other than that, I guess it's just a matter of holding our collective nerve and keeping an eye out for the Seer. I'm going to try to get the phantom on side. Gil and Shasta are probably our best bets for lynch victims, though we shouldn't be too obvious about it. I might have a pop at Lal too, given her suggestion that, had she voted, she wouldn't have broken the tie.

On another subject, I wonder which of us is which in the narratives. I suspect that Kath was the one who claimed the prophetic dream, while CoD and I did away with Legate and Menel. [Big Grin]

Adios amigos.

Well, I was wrong about the narrative. Seemingly, it was me who claimed to have the prophetic dream. I loved that final narrative, by the way, Fea.

Well, that's it for Night 1 plotting. Brinniel was chosen as she left little trail, and also on the off-chance that she might have been the Seer. I, for one, could see no clear clues as to the Seer's identity on Day 1.

Oh and, as I said, that triple tie was sheer luck. But it couldn't have gone better, had I tried.

[The Saucepan Man]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

Another good day at the coal face. [Big Grin]

ToMorrow, we will be facing 4 innocents, and we may even get the Seer toNight if we are lucky.

I'm a bit annoyed with cross-posting with the phantom on that last minute vote, as I would have preferred to have killed Lal to Shasta. But I couldn't risk looking like I was trying to create another multiple lynch, and I couldn't look like I trusted phantom too much either.

I could, of course, have gone for the mutliple tie and possibly ended the game then and there, but where would the fun have been in that? [Wink]

So, toNight's kill? Any ideas on who might be the Seer? It looks like Lal was thinking Mith might be, but I don't see it myself. I shall have to review, but it doesn't look like the Seer has spotted one of us yet.

I would prefer to leave the phantom alive for now, unless anyone thinks he might be the Seer. I can't see it myself, but I wouldn't put it past Fea to confer Seership on him. Other than that, my current thinking is either Mithalwen or Lalwende. I would lean towards Mith, as she has attracted very little suspicion, whereas Lal has been under more pressure. And who knows, perhaps Lal is right about her being the Seer.

Any thoughts?

~The Saucepan Wolf~

PS I am unlikely to be around at the deadline tomorrow so would one of you be able to send the kill choice to Fea and Boro? If not, I will have to send them the kill choice early.

Still hadn't spotted Holby as the Seer, although that's probably 'cos she hadn't posted anything more in the meantime.

Originally Posted by The Wolf of Despair

Bad Wolf!

Sauce, we had it!

Victory was so close! A Quintuple lynch, plus our kill tonight would have meant easy pickings the next day.

*sulks*

I'm disappointed in your lack of "go get 'em" spirit. [Wink]

The possibility of the quadruple/quintuple lynch did of course occur to me. Given the opportunity, I would have thought long and hard about it. But it would have been terribly unsporting (and Nogrod would most definately have disapproved ). Still, phantom played well there and effectively denied me the opportunity, or at least made me risk looking very Wolfish if I went for it and failed.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

Hehe. I'm playing the 'long game'. Which hopefully means wrapping up the victory toMorrow. [Big Grin]

But seriously, with phantom holding his vote right 'til the end, I couldn't risk it. Had he voted for one of those who already had a vote, I would have ended up looking very Wolfish.

We do really need to kill the Seer toNight though, if we can. There is a good chance that he or she will dream of one of us toNight, which will cause us problems toMorrow if he/she is still alive.

Our choices are as follows:

Gil
Holby
phantom
Mithalwen
Lalwende

I find it very unlikely that Gil is the Seer, unless he was being very clever with that vote for Boro.

It's possible that Holby is the Seer, but it would be practically impossible to spot her with her being out of the action toDay. I do think that her opening post of Day 1 was probably too bold for a Seer, though.

If phantom was the Seer, I am almost certain that he would have dreamed of me on Night 1, as he would want to know whether to trust me or not.

Which leaves Mith and Lal. Mith suspected Lal and Holby and voted for the latter. She did not give any indication that she thought anyone innocent. I would expect a Seer to leave some kind of a hint in case she was killed.

Lal, on the other hand, posted favourably about Kath, me and Mithalwen. It wouldn't surprise me if, as a Seer, she dreamed of Mithalwen on Night 1.

So I am now leaning towards killing Lal, as the most likely Seer.

Would welcome your thoughts, though.

Originally Posted by The Wolf of Despair

I'm currently leaning towards Lal or Holby as good kill prospects. Mithalwen does not seem too...threatening...at the moment.

Lal is certainly a good target, since she is rather vocal. But her posts seem to be...less and less helpful to the village. She seems to be playing the middle ground, able to backtrack when needed, perhaps hoping we don't see her as a Seer (if she is one, of course)

Holby's quietness would make her an excellent pick, since there is no decent trail to trace back to us. And if she is the Seer, perhaps her silence will be more dangerous in the long run. In leaving her alive because she has been unavailable, she could return with a fair amount of dream-knowledge in tow. This, if she has anything, could lead to one or more of us meeting a quick demise.

That of course is speculation, as there is little there to put to analysis.

For now, I'll say we can go with putting Lal under the maw. If I think of anything else, or this "decision" changes, I'll let you know.

Oh, and I can send the mods our decision tomorrow morning before I leave for work. Just make sure to let me know well before 7:30am EST. I leave for work right around that time.

Bah! If only I had gone with CoD's instincts, we would have got the Seer on Night 2. But Lal looked more Seerish to me. And I must admit that the fact that Holvy has been the Seer so many times played on my mind. That and her bold first post, which you can see played an important part in my thinking. Had I known that she had dreamed before Day 1, it might have influenced me more the other way.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

OK, I'm happy with killing Lal. Looking back over the thread, I think there's a good chance that she is the Seer.

Just to be sure, I shall PM Fea and Boro now and tell them that our kill will be Lalwende, unless they hear any
different from either of you two before the deadline. I wouldn't want to risk missing our kill.

As I won't be on-line again before Day 3 starts, here's something that I wanted to mention. It's fairly obvious, but I'll say it anyway. All we need toMorrow is one innocent to vote for another innocent and, if we add our three votes, we have won.

Good luck, my friends. [Smilie]

I knew that, if Lal wasn't the Seer, there was a good chance that one of us would have been spotted by the Seer and that, given the situation, the Seer would probably reveal. I also knew that there was a reasonable chance that it would be me who was unmasked. But I was also fairly sure at that point that Lal was the Seer.

I shall have to leave it to Kath or CoD to reveal their Night 3 plotting.

[The Saucepan Man]

Oops! I forgot these ones:

Originally Posted by KathWolf

Hi! My apologies for not being around nightly since this began, just a bit of bad timing. May I just say though, congratulations so far! A triple innocent lynch Day 1, incredible!

As to toNight, I'd be happy with killing Lal. I've read over the posts from the last two Days and Mith doesn't look Gifted to me, though she may have learnt to cover it better, and Holby hasn't been around enough to gain much of a view on her. So yes, Lal is good.

Let's just hope this luck continues!

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Wolf

Hey Kath, good to have you back with us.

OK, I have PM'd the Mods and asked them to take Lal as our kill unless they hear differently from one of you before the deadline.

So, if you have any major brainwave and both agree on an alternative kill, I am happy to go along with it.

If not, and you get the opportunity Captain, it may be worth confirming Lal as our kill anyway before you head off for work.

No particular strategy for toMorrow, other than to pile all of our the votes on to any innocent that another innocent votes for. If Lal's not the Seer, and the real Seer dreams of one of us and reveals, it could get tricky. But let's not panic if that happens. We may have to sacrifice one of our number in that situation, but at least those that remain will know who the Seer is.

All the best.

[the phantom]

Fun game, everyone. A pity it was shortened by that day one fiasco.

CoD... that was bold. And you played it well. You really sold it. I'm not terribly familiar with your playing style, and so I wasn't sure what to think for a while. I wrestled with it and banged my head against the wall. I did, after long thought, side with Holby- primarily because I did not believe that SPMWolf would advocate the strategy we had witnessed the day before if Holby had indeed been a WW. But know that I was not 100% certain. There was doubt, so I pat you on the back for creating uncertainly about something that there should have been no uncertainty about.

That last day really threw my suspicions for a loop. Going into the final day my primary suspects were Mith and Kath. Not that I thought you to be completely innocent, CoD, but I was more suspicious of the other two. But as the last day unfolded, your Seer announcement and the reactions surrounding it bumped Mith off my suspect list and placed you on it, but then Gil quite forcefully elbowed his way onto the suspect list, which bumped Kath into the innocent column.

I can't tell you how badly I wanted to jump on and post all throughout the day! I didn't think for a minute that I wouldn't be alive for the fun. Leave me alive next time!

[CaptainofDespair]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Leave me alive next time!

Perhaps we will.

Though, I did get a good degree of satisfaction in choosing you as my target that last night.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Note One: All roles were selected by a random number generator I found online. My only real role as mod was to write up narratives and keep my inbox clear. As for writing...

I tried very hard not to leave any clues in the stories. It's obnoxious, trying to avoid 'he' as the universal pronoun when you know the village will jump on the mod-slip first thing in the Morning...

My favorite bit of it was the end. I took one look at the solitary Kath mourning her lost pack in the graveyard and wanted to go back and edit every single post to better accomodate that one image. The premise would have been more in the style of Heinlein's work (though hopefully better written ) with the wolf pack representing the communist threat...

Oh, it would have been great...

I could still do it, I suppose... Recreate the story around the premise that the wolves are trying to convert all the world into one loving cooperative For the Greater Good pack...

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by the phantom

That last day really threw my suspicions for a loop. Going into the final day my primary suspects were Mith and Kath. Not that I thought you to be completely innocent, CoD, but I was more suspicious of the other two. But as the last day unfolded, your Seer announcement and the reactions surrounding it bumped Mith off my suspect list and placed you on it, but then Gil quite forcefully elbowed his way onto the suspect list, which bumped Kath into the innocent column.

You comfort me. Gil was so obviously lying about being a seer that it seemed impossible he was innocent .. so Kath was able to slip through.