WW XXXIX - Do Werebalrogs have wings?

[Nogrod]

Even if it's bad for our numbers I'm somewhat happy that we lost the cobbler. After all it was the best possible outcome after the possibility of the ranger denying the kill (or the hunter taking one of them with her/him).

So it's a triangle-story then and the third part only dies after both her lovers are dead or something... but as someone (Lhuna?) said already yesterDay we probably shouldn't bother our minds too much with this lover thing unless something dramatic is revealed.

That's because we still have all the three balrogs around with us. It would be a fine Day to start picking them up. So let's do it toDay.

[Kath]

Just popping in quickly. I'm off out in about 5 minutes so ...

The Cobbler is dead and that's good. Extra lovers is not so good. Still, on this one I do agree with Noggie, it's the Balrogs we need to concentrate on. We actually got lucky last Night, they took out someone that would have been harmful to us, but we can hardly rely on that happening again!

I will be back later toDay to add more.

[The Might]

Well, I must admit I feel I've been wrong about my last vote. I actually doubt Nogrod is a bad guy right now, just kinda feeling that. Yes, know it sounds somewhat stupid to change my mind so fast, but I hope I won't be wrong about this.
Nor do I think that Legate is bad. Looking through their past posts it doesn't seem there is any planning happening.
Hmmm...not sure what to believe of many others, hopefully with more posts from others I'll be able to make my mind.

[Macalaure]

They killed the cobbler? Has it ever happened before that the wolves took their cobbler down?

And why am I not surprised that a cobbler lover was a part of this game.

No time to gloat, though, while the three chief baddies are still around.


This post is somewhat defensive, I know, but I want it out of the way.

There's the issue about talking about giftedness. In my opinion, talking about whether somebody is not gifted and talking about whether somebody is gifted is equally bad. All I wanted to say yesterday was that Rikae could be gifted just like anybody else could be, not any more - after Nogrod and Volo claimed she probably isn't. The idea of reverse psychology (suspecting Rikae of giftedness and saying she is not gifted so that the balrogs won't take her) didn't occur to me then, to be honest.

Originally Posted by Legate

I indeed understood Volo's words as "Don't kill her at night", as he put it later, and there are things that a gentleman just does not speak about - that is, like playing with the idea that she's a gifted. Which was started by Mac, not Volo, from my point of view - if I thought that Rikae could be a gifted, I'd say exactly what Volo did.

Ok, the reverse psychology part I now understand. But I still don't get what you're talking about. Neither Volo nor I started it, but Nogrod. The fact that Volo was the cobbler and wanted to confuse us makes this statement look a little bad.

Originally Posted by Legate

But that reaction had sort of negative-tone against those who commented around her.

Care to explain?


Back soon - with interesting stuff, hopefully.

[Nogrod]

Okay. Here's for the freaks of this game: the facts (I have tried to pick up the relevant quotes but feel free to disagree and we can see whether I missed some important arguments). Some thoughts on these to follow later...

11PM Rikae -> Rikae (pops in and votes)

She has played ten games over the past year and has never been lynched - I say it's her turn. Besides, she is evil: she smashed my finger in a car door once. Oh, that's anachronistic - make it a van. She also is acting erratic and bizarre, which is clearly a sign of Balroggery.

1PM Kath -> Nogrod (the only chance to be online)

I'm tempted to try and kill him off already just to keep the number of pages down! Has posted nothing while posting a lot. Keeps calling for people to talk which, yeah, great, but we know that and after the third post asking for chat you don't really need to do it again. Plus, that post that concluded everyone he'd looked at was a possible balrog? I don't know, maybe it's just his playing style this game, but it's making me suspicious.

4.45PM Brinn -> Rikae (goes to class not sure whether able to come back)

I really doubt Rikae is a gifted; why would she want to confuse the village when she is so important to them?
I'm not entirely confident, but she is the most suspicious right now. If we wait until Day 2, a balrog Rikae could come back and say she did it because she didn't have time and didn't have any suspects, sounding entirely innocent all of sudden. I'm not sure I want to risk that.

5.15PM Gil -> Rikae (In a hurry and far away from a computer)

if Rikae really wants to commit suicide then sure for nobody else has any sufficent misgivings towards them.
Oh and Brinniel is on my list not for voting Rikae but for taking advantage of that if Rikae indeed turns to be an innocent, then Brinniel can play off that again...

5.40PM Volo -> Rikae (an hour and a half to the deadline, didn’t appear after the vote)

What is that all about, Rikae?? If you have a role that leads you to victory by being lynched the first, I think you'll achieve your goal. Really, what was that about??

5.46PM The Might -> Nogrod (popped in to vote with this explanation)

Well, it seems that except Rikae's strange decision nothing else happened that could really make you think someone is a balrog or not. So I must admit, making the vote isn't easy, but I'll just follow my Gondolindrim instinct and vote

6.12PM Nerwen -> Rikae (popped in to vote...)

Look, Rikae, I wasn't going to do anything until you'd had a chance to speak for yourself. Now that you have... I've really very little idea what you are or what you're trying to achieve.
You're certainly not making any effort to get your neck out of the noose. Either you're treating the whole thing as a joke, or you think you're done for anyway so there's no point resisting, or you really are deliberately trying to get lynched.
I can't say that you or anyone else has done anything that definitely says "balrog" to me– but time is running out. In the absence of a better candidate–

6.55PM Mith -> Nogrod (partook the final discussion and stayed to the end)

I really don't like Nogrod using me as his human shield and trying to create an illusion mass of suspicion about me when there has been very little save his. Attack the best form of defence methinks... And he is doing that pseudo helpful thing... .my guess is he could well be a gung-ho wolf becaus of his possible major absence later in the game.
Rikae is a very bold player ..... so bold I wonder if there isn't something special going on - we have not had full disclosure ..so if it is her or you Nogrod,it will be you...
Well to late to get a swing vote for Gil so

6.57PM Legate -> Rikae (partook the final discussion and stayed to the end)

Nevertheless, Rikae's behavior is still very strange (her answer is not an answer at all), so it just looks that she's a cobbler or whatever kind of madness. So probably I'm going to vote for her - with hope that we get rid of a cobbler by this.
One more thing concerning Rikae, or another reason to vote her. I am a little bit afraid that if she remains an enigma and remains alive, or even worse, if she's a cobbler and remains alive, she will only make the situation troublesome as she will spread our forces, so to say. We will still have this "What is she? Is she a cobbler?" back in our minds, and we'll spend a large part of discussion about that. Of course getting a balrog on the first day would be nice, and I am somewhat reluctant to think that she is one, but if she is a cobbler, then on the first day, it's in fact still quite a success, or at least small compensation for not catching a balrog.
But unfortunately, it looks now that the state of the village is that questions about you won't give us rest until you are dead, if I say it very nastily.
So it's her or Nogrod definitively? It's clearer then...

6.59PM Macalaure -> Nogrod (popped in to vote with a list of suspicion)

Nogrod is an option, but lynching Nogrod on Day One with little evidence? But Gil is a shot into the dark...
But then, there's no real option anymore but Rikae and Nogrod.

6.59PM Nogrod -> Rikae (partook the final discussion and stayed to the end)

That's so sad it lead to this as I don't think she is a balrog (a cobbler possibly but probably not even that).

PS. some of the quotes are gathered from a few different posts and some are from a single post... basically the vote post then.

PS.2. The times are GMT

[Nogrod]

Btw. if I needed to vote right now I might go for Macalaure indeed.

Look at his last post yesterDay posted one minute before the deadline.

Now he clearly had
a) time to think
b) time to type
what he did. A full list of suspicions in different categories.

So why did he use his precious time to post a list instead of taking part in the discussion and trying to make any points he might have had for the good of the village?

I once caught a wolf-Morm from this very same behaviour. Because it didn't matter to him who was lynched as he knew both of the candidates were innocents! So as he was not actually concerned as we were on the last minutes he thought it better to clean his image by trying to look helpfulf and make a list - because he was not worried about the outcome!

A slight blunder then, a lapse on the concentration it was or something you didn't come to think?

It could be added that his first post toDay doesn't look too sincere either. It's not a problem if someone sees he needs to defend himself from suspicion. But to underline the fact that one's post is a defencive one looks a bit overdoing it. I mean a baddie thinks about these things all the time and wonders how his posts look in the eyes of the others. So they become easily oversensitive and feel the need to explain and back themselves up. I know it from experience...

Also I had I slowly growing bad feelings about Mac already yesterDay. I need to go back to them later toDay to see whether there is something more than just bad feelings.

Back to looking at the votes...

[The Might]

Interesting idea Nogrod and the argument you make is quite convincing, I must admit.
Not so sure about the defensive part though, but then again, you're the more experienced player I guess.
Definitely good point, and I am quite interested to see what Mac will answer. Seems something does start to happen in here after all.

[Nogrod]

Things picked up from the voting yesterDay...

Kath I discussed with length already yesterDay and will not go back to her. See my post #43.

Brinn says:

If we wait until Day 2, a balrog Rikae could come back and say she did it because she didn't have time and didn't have any suspects, sounding entirely innocent all of sudden. I'm not sure I want to risk that.

And if she is a balrog she is telling the truth here. For she knows that if Rikae is alive on Day2 and becomes her sensible and intelligent self it would be hard to lynch her anymore and she might even be witty enough to cause the balrogs some trouble. (I have a few points on Brinn to come but I'll bring them forwards later as I first end up with these votes from yesterDay).

Gil looks like very confused indeed. And it's not the first time. I'm leaning towards his innocence at the moment as it would be astonishingly bold balrog-tactics to draw attention to oneself with such a weird logic.

Nerwen and The Might just popped in to vote and vanished. They didn't say they were in a hurry or otherwise unable to take part in the last deliberations (there were a lots of votes still to cast at the time they voted). So why did they just voted and left? A balrog would like to withdraw from the hot situations of the last minutes so as not to tumble there. So voting about an hour before the deadline and vanishing is the safe way to go.

I said already yesterDay that Mith's one-track mindedness and nervousness brought me back suspecting her towards the end of the Day but I must also say to her honour that she really stood to the end and tried to have an effect which looks more innocent than balrogish to me. So it's hard to say.

Legate sounds sensible and consistent. That would be the most dangerous kind of balroggery there is and I wouldn't put it past him to be able to pull that kind of bluff. But there seems to be a host of better candidates to look after right now.

Mac I already discussed in my last post. Maybe I could add that his speculation with Gil looks pretty odd. With one minute to go there was no real chance to lynch Gil! So why was that speculation there? Maybe he had written that part already earlier (ten minutes, fifteen minutes?) when there still was a chance to gather enough votes to lynch Gil instead of Rikae or myself? Maybe he just felt he needed to add something to the post as not to seem too happy with the choices? Whatever the reason the speculation on Gil looks strange from an innocent miner at that point.

Not voted: Sally (came forwards with apologies), Lhuna and Shasta
Not seen around: Naria

If Naria is not seen toDay she will be modfired so let's leave her to the graces if she doesn't appear.

EDIT:

Originally Posted by Sally

only that he's giving us a plethera of information which leads to no set conclusion

I hope you're a bit more satisfied with rthis post even if I can't give you the certain identities of the Balrogs as yet...

[Macalaure]

A few things, mostly about Nogrod. There are some things he said that seem odd.

While I agree with what Kath said about him, I wouldn't automatically conclude it's very suspicious. But he makes a lot of fuss around her suspicion and I think his defence is a little over the top (you mean mine was, too? Maybe, but that doesn't matter )

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You're right in doing that and it's a good viewpoint but you should also note that most of the people do not wish to restate things some others have already pointed out.

I don't understand what his comment has to do with mine.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The silent balrogs seem to have won the Day once again which is a pity indeed.

How do you know the balrogs were silent?


Neither of these gives me a truly suspicious impression, but my overall picture of him is just fuzzy. The way Mith went after Nogrod is strange as well. I'm confused about both of them.


Oh, and I made that list of suspects while skim-reading the thread within a few minutes. I simply copied from the list of players and rearranged the names. The list wasn't meant to look helpful (it didn't even include any comment!), just to help me make up my mind.


I don't have time to look at others closer right now. See you tomorrow.

edit: crossed with Nogrod

[satansaloser2005]

First of all, what fortune for us to have the cobbler killed last night. I think that finding the hairy killers will be much easier with their little friend out of the way. Second of all, who perhaps looks the hairiest and balrogiest among us? As of yet I have no solid grasp on the identities of the hairy little beasts, although plenty of discussion has been thrown out by Nogrod in particular. Not to imply necessarily that he is a murderer in need of a shave, only that he's giving us a plethera of information which leads to no set conclusion, excluding his last post, which does require consideration. Further observation is needed before I cast my vote to end the life of ANY villager, be they miner or balrog, as I believe we must present a united front against our furry foes.



p.s. I may not be able to vote tomorrow! i have a class until almost 3pm CT so i may try to sneak out in the middle and go down to the library to check things out so i don't miss the deadline

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

They killed the cobbler? Has it ever happened before that the wolves took their cobbler down?

No time to gloat, though, while the three chief baddies are still around.

This post is somewhat defensive, I know, but I want it out of the way.

Okay, whatever. I just looked at this whole post once again. Seems really balrog-made. I'm voting. Que sera sera...

++Macalaure

Goodbye.

[Macalaure]

An unsuspected lack of time has hit me this week, so I have to make it brief. I'll be there about an hour from the deadline.

I could make a long analysis of Legate and why he is out of his mind in this game so far, but I won't, because a) there's no time and b) I have a feeling I would end up with the conclusion that he's confused, but innocently confused, so it's probably not worth doing anyway.

At the moment, I trust Kath, Nerwen and maybe Mith, but that's all, sadly.

It's even sadder that many have still contributed too little for me to draw conclusions from (Lhuna, Shasta, Naria, Gil).

I don't know where to put Sally and the Might.

Be very wary of Nogrod, my dear friends, be very wary of Nogrod!

And while I'm 'only' very wary of Nogrod, I am very suspicious of Brinniel. I will come back to that when I'm back.

[The Might]

Well, back home and I notice that quite many posts have been regarding me being a bad guy, due to the fact that I agreed with Nogrod and also with Legate about Mac.
However, I had had my own suspicions about Mac from the start of the 2nd day. I felt that this constant need to explain the own decisions (lol, seems I'm doing that now) was a bit exaggerated and seems quite balrogish. And also, I must admit that as a new player in the game I do rather tend to somewhat trust the intuition of more experienced players. This of course does not mean that I would do anything an older player tries to convince me to, but as already said, since I already had my own suspicions abut Mac and some other god arguments were brought against him, I agreed with the others.
Since I was suspicious about Mac and he and Nogrod didn't seem to be on the best terms, I also felt that both he and Legate were and are innocent, as as Legate already pointed out, I somehow doubt the balrogs would sacrifice one of them just to make us feel safe from one of them. Of course, it is possible, but not really a good early game strategy in my opinion.

All in all, I've made up my mind, and am voting out

++Macalaure

I am quite certain about my vote and also am suspicious about Kath, but I'm not entirely sure about that one.

Sorry that I need to vote early again today and it's not because I want to avoid the ending discussion but because I'm invited to a friend who is turning 19 today. I mean, WW is nice, but I'm not saying no to cake. Anyway, he's got a computer with Internet so I might make a post later on if I have the chance to, but can't promise anything.