WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I mentioned it because Rikae herself has been critical of comments that she sees as lacking substance. That one struck me as being rather pointless, that's all. She also seems to be very arbitrary about how she applies her "empty post = suspicious" rule.

I don't see especially that point as strange either. I can see where you are coming from, but I'd say whatever anyone says, be it only his own opinion, is worth something - at least to us others. We can later use that for analysis. Or eventually say "Rikae and Mac were wolves and they needed an easy reason why not to supect each other". Otherwise, I did not notice the "rule" you mention to be as apparent. I personally thought about that as well, but sally does that (already behaved like that the game before) and f.ex. Kath appears only to say she will be back later - now what kind of playing is that, really? - but one has to understand that. Also, this is the first day (to quote the refrain once more) and there was not much to speak of if they didn't have that much time.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I don't see especially that point as strange either. I can see where you are coming from, but I'd say whatever anyone says, be it only his own opinion, is worth something - at least to us others. We can later use that for analysis.

Point taken. I guess I was being over-critical.

For the rest of it, though... well, I do think some of her comments show a bit of a double-standard. For instance, she finds my first post to be somewhat suspicious because all I did was remind everyone to consider the timezone issue before they start lynching people for being too quiet. In her view, there's not enough substance there– and yet she has no problem with people who have done nothing at all but joke.

Understand that I'm criticizing her arguments on grounds of inconsistency, not making an accusation.

EDIT: X'd with Volo and A Little Green.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Nerwen, apology accepted, but why do you seem now suddenly all too self-critical? Or, self-defensive? Don't overdo it, or I may start to suspect you!

Note to Volo's post - for Fea - see? Now this is what I meant - if you post something that has substance, people may start to react to you. Not that it always is a good thing, but that's for another debate

Originally Posted by Lilla Greenhand

If Valier is a wolf, that would be a perfect guise. If, as a wolf, she finds nothing too "suspicious" about anyone, she can just rely on voting for a quiet person.
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf.

*Notes down: if she and Valier are the wolves, this would be very good move. Keep in mind for further.*

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Nerwen, apology accepted, but why do you seem now suddenly all too self-critical? Or, self-defensive? Don't overdo it, or I may start to suspect you!

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Point taken. I guess I was being over-critical.

I'm not siding with Nerwen now, but that's also what I felt like saying after you stared at me. Now is Legate just right and has water-proof points or does he hold the voice of Saruman once again?

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Note to Volo's post - for Fea - see? Now this is what I meant - if you post something that has substance, people may start to react to you. Not that it always is a good thing, but that's for another debate

I guess this would answer my question.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

*Notes down: if she and Valier are the wolves, this would be very good move. Keep in mind for further.*

Well, not good enough as it was spotted... Now this makes me want to lean to lynching Valier and finding out what she is. I'll try to take the feeling critically.


EDIT: Xd with Lommy and Aganzir.

[Macalaure]

Well, well...

Shall we lynch a quiet one, a loud one, a weird one, or an actually suspicious one? I'm not going to touch the question due to its obviousness, I'd just like to point out that those who speak on this matter with good Hobbit sense do not look less suspicious to me because of it. It's too easy for a wolf to appear innocent by speaking sense in irrelevant matters.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Macalaure - This may not be quite kosher, but I talk to Mac every day and can read him fairly well, if I say so myself. He's given none of his typical "hiding something" vibes so far.

Not kosher indeed. You would have to be able to read me exceptionally well in order to catch any vibes from those few lines of exclusive joking. Sure, it's an opinion and therefore perfectly okay to be stated (I don't see Nerwen's objection at all), but I don't see how you could have gotten there.

Which brings me to Nerwen. I get the feeling that she is much more tense than she was in her first game. What she says isn't necessarily suspicious, but her tone makes me uneasy.

Of course, Rikae's analysis of people is not cutting edge - how could it be? Obviously, it was only intended to get the ball rolling - and it was successful with it. I don't see why Legate takes an issue with it in #34.

Volo looks suspicious to me. First he criticises Rikae along the lines Legate did, but much stronger, then he agrees with her and conveniently jumps on the Valier-bandwaggon (#39).

I disagree with Fea's statement that we won't catch a wolf today unless s/he's stupid. The sharper we look, the less stupid a wolf has to be in order to be caught. Still, her statement at least is genuine - other than the ones of those who agreed with her. *coughalittlegreenandvolocough*

(edit: crossed with Lommy, Aganzir, and Volo)

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Mac

I disagree with Fea's statement that we won't catch a wolf today unless s/he's stupid. The sharper we look, the less stupid a wolf has to be in order to be caught. Still, her statement at least is genuine - other than the ones of those who agreed with her. *coughalittlegreenandvolocough*

Might I ask you when did I agree with her? When I said that there are no hard facts on Day1? Yes, I did agree with that, but that is all with which I agreed. I do not prefer random votes, basicly because they're unfair and because they leave no trails - only by leaving trails can the Innocents get the Wolves to leave trails as they follow behind.

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Volo looks suspicious to me. First he criticises Rikae along the lines Legate did, but much stronger, then he agrees with her and conveniently jumps on the Valier-bandwaggon (#39).

Legate's talk is too subtle and it leaves an open path for him to change the meaning of his words later on, but I see nothing wrong with suspecting Rikae. I have no way of proving it, but I wrote my post about Rikae before I read Legate's and decided not to change it when I got to it.

I'm not happy with voting Valier, but I haven't found any better reasons to vote anybody else. I hope she will return before any bandwagons will take place.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Volo

Might I ask you when did I agree with her? When I said that there are no hard facts on Day1?

Exactly that. You didn't agree to everything she said, but it was in the same line. But this was only a small comment and not the reason for my suspicion about you.

Originally Posted by Volo

I do not prefer random votes, basicly because they're unfair and because they leave no trails

And wasting a chance to lynch a wolf, even if it's not a good one, is not a reason against it?? But let's not start/keep on discussing this.

Originally Posted by Volo

Legate's talk is too subtle and it leaves an open path for him to change the meaning of his words later on, but I see nothing wrong with suspecting Rikae.

There is absolutely nothing wrong with suspecting Rikae. I do it as well, though only very little. But I think the reason "her analysis was not helpful enough" is a bad and a suspicious reason.

I see where your suspicion of Legate comes from, but I don't share it. He doesn't strike me as a Wolf of Amon Gaur (yet).

[Rikae]

To clarify my position on bantering posts:
I don't find them the least bit suspicious as the first post on day one, or as brief responses to others. Many players like to kick off Day 1 with a joke or two, and I see it as harmless, provided they join the actual discussion at some point during the day.
Theclassical "trying to look helpful while saying nothing" post, however, is another matter. The fact is, wolves do know something the rest of us don't - they know who is evil, and who is innocent. Most of the time, they're trying to avoid directing suspicion toward those they know are guilty and have someone they know is innocent lynched - but not in a way that points back to them. Therefore, an empty but vaguely helpful-looking post is often the slip that gets a wolf caught.

Now, regarding Mac - certainly you have no reason to trust my hunches now. However, in the likely event I die at some point during the game, they might help you. I certainly trust my intuition on Mac by now, as I was able to guess his role almost immediately in the last two games.

Well, now. We've heard from a few more people, and conversation seems to be taking off. I don't agree with Fea, but her pessimism seems genuine. Something about Green seemed slightly odd to me when I read her post, although I can't quite put my finger on it. The reluctance to reveal her suspicions, maybe, which doesn't seem to logically follow from the response to Fea.

A word about random votes - I agree with Lommy, they should be outlawed! A random vote does absolutely nothing to help us find wolves, and it masks the meaningless of the wolves' votes. Therefore, anyone who votes without having given some reason for suspicion, is suspicious in my eyes.

Nerwen is indeed acting very defensively, however, unlike Lommy, I seem to recall her behaving similarly in the last. I fear she may be too easy a scapegoat, actually, and the determined way Lommy pursues her is slightly worrisome.

I'm glad to see Kath has joined the discussion, and I don't see anything objectionable in her post.
It is difficult to say anything about Aganzir at this point, but I'd like to know her opinion on Valier.

I'm not sure what Legate is trying to accomplish, or what he wants. He seems to be encouraging continued discussion of generalities, and taking a dominant, teacherly, "Nogrod's apprentice" role. I particularly don't understand why it is useless for me to state my suspicions and opinions of people, but apparently quite helpful if he gives his. I suppose when Legate dies and turns out to be a wolf, those will be useful.

I'm not sure who to vote for at this point. I do find Valier suspicious, and although I'd like the chance to play with her again (I think the only other game we had together was my first), there are good reasons not to vote for pretty much everyone on Day 1. What should we do, decide who's most "expendable" or who's most suspicious?
However, I'm also open to voting Nerwen, and if anyone else sees anything suspicious in Lommy or Legate, I'm listening. (With a little alliteration, no less!)

EDIT: X'd with everyone since Volo.

[Nerwen]

There appear to be two schools of thought about the value of doing serious wolf-hunting on the first Day. I'm somewhere in the middle– I think it's worth analysing posts for signs of wolfishness, but also that catching one will take a large amount of luck.

(This, I admit, is based on almost no experience.)

There's also the problem that people who look for wolves too hard now can wind up looking wolfish themselves– they really don't have much to build on, so they seem to be making baseless accusations. This is one of the reasons I'm not accusing Rikae even though some of her arguments are, in my view, a bit strange. I think she's most likely just trying to work with what she's got.

EDIT: X'd with Kath, Mac and Volo.