WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, from the above, it looks like not in the slightest problematic fifty or seventy votes for Nerwen, so I am not afraid any longer to vote for her. Even if all of those who said that were wolves and change their votes, well, at least we will know them all toMorrow. To avoid further confusion,

++Nerwen

[Volo]

++Valier

explanation in next post.

[Volo]

Ok, sorry for that. I haven't had time to read the third page at all as I just came late from a film, but I noticed that if I want to have any chance of lynching the person I suspect, I'd have to do it very quickly.

Valier's post #70 is a bit too desperate.

I'm sorry that you had too little time...

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Volo

Ok, sorry for that. I haven't had time to read the third page at all as I just came late from a film, but I noticed that if I want to have any chance of lynching the person I suspect, I'd have to do it very quickly.

Valier's post #70 is a bit too desperate.

I'm sorry that you had too little time...

Desparate is a good word to describe her Volo. Thank you.

It seems tied right now between Nerwen and I, then the Might and Valier.

[Aganzir]

++ Nerwen

Nerwen-4, morm-3, Might-2, Valier-2, Lommy-1

[Macalaure]

Kath -> Might
Nerwen -> Lommy
Valier -> morm
Might -> Might (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1)
Rikae -> Nerwen (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1, Nerwen 1)
Sally -> morm (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1)
morm -> Valier (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Fea -> morm (morm 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Brin -> Nerwen (morm 3, TM 2, Nerwen 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)
Legate -> Nerwen (morm 3, Nerwen 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)
Volo -> Valier (morm 3, Nerwen 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)

Half an hour til deadline. Let's make it

Mac -> Nerwen (Nerwen 4, morm 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)

And just so that it's official:

++Nerwen

(edit: crossed with Aganzir's vote)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Votes this far:

Kath -> Might
Nerwen -> Lommy
Valier -> morm
Might -> Might (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1)
Rikae -> Nerwen (TM 2, Lommy 1, morm 1, Nerwen 1)
Sally -> morm (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1)
morm -> Valier (TM 2, morm 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Fea -> morm (morm 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Nerwen 1, Valier 1)
Brin -> Nerwen (morm 3, TM 2, Nerwen 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)
Legate -> Nerwen (morm 3, Nerwen 3, TM 2, Lommy 1, Valier 1)
Volo -> Valier (morm 3, Nerwen 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)
Wife -> Nerwen (Nerwen 4, morm 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)
Mac -> Nerwen (Nerwen 5, morm 3, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)
Menel -> morm (Nerwen 5, morm 4, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)
LG -> Nerwen (Nerwen 6, morm 4, TM 2, Valier 2, Lommy 1)

Left to vote (unless I am mistaken):

Thinlómien
Farael (not probable)
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan

Please be careful that you don't cross-post with anyone. A cross-post can mean a double-lynch in these circumstances, so try to type quick. In case of Lommy and LG ( ) such a thing should not happen, but otherwise...

EDIT: okay, I'm saying something and not doing that myself x-ed with LG. I'm editing the post to reflect her vote.

[Thinlómien]

Let's make it a bit more certain.

++Nerwen

Now, I hope she really is a wolf. It's not nice for anyone if she isn't (expect for the wolves obv.) and it won't be definitely nice to me, judging by various comments heard toDay...

edit: xed with morm

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Now, I hope she really is a wolf. It's not nice for anyone if she isn't (expect for the wolves obv.) and it won't be definitely nice to me, judging by various comments heard toDay...

edit: xed with morm

This seems horribly apologetic. We vote as best we can and live with the consequences. I never like this approach and it makes me more suspicious than I was before. I feel like you are saying..."well, here goes my vote, when it turns out that your innocent you will all know that I felt really bad for it, so don't come looking my way because I'm innocent"

[Volo]

A very quickly formed list mainly to avoid being killied during the night for not suspecting clearly ( )

Leaning Good:
Thinlómien
Meneltarmacil
Macalaure
The Might
Mormegil

Leaning Neutral (unknown):
Aganzir
Feanor of the Peredhil
Brinniel
Satansaloser2005
Farael
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan
Kath
Nerwen

Leaning Evil:
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Little Green
Valier
Rikae

[Kuruharan]

I'm not totally comfortable with my choices here.

While I can't deny that morm hasn't been posting normally...I'm not comfortable with voting against him.

I'm also not comfortable voting for Nerwen either. I'd really rather vote for Thinlómien...

But at this point in many respects one is about as good as the other...either one could be a wolf...

Course, they might both be innocent too...

Still...

++ Nerwen

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Valier's own words (chronologically):

Lynch the loud.

Day one is irksome, given lack of useable evidence.

She's innocent.

Morm is sketching her out by being quiet--
--isn't acting like himself--
--without excusing the change--
"I tend to believe that he has some hair up his sleeve."

She's innocent.

Morm's sketching her out--
--but she doesn't have evidence, just a feeling--
--she might not be right, but she'd rather find out through lynching morm--

Don't kill her, her feelings are sure to find at least one wolf.

She only has her instincts as 'proof.'

"Tomorrow is another day and if I survive till then it will be all the brighter"

And then she votes for morm.

---

Okay.

So I think the wolves killed her to frame morm, like I already said.

But I also think they probably killed her because of how plainly she was expressing her confidence in her gut reactions. Because we all get whims, you know? And we'd like to think we're right. But she said outright that she was sure she was going to discover a wolf.

And whether or not she did discover a wolf, that statement ("I AM going to find you" instead of "so I think I might be right") would be an eye-catcher.

So pretty much I agree with Legate saying

the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try).

and

Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once.

So yeah. I think Valier died not because she'd nailed a wolf but because the wolves had a two-birds-with-one-stone philosophy.

At least that's what makes the most sense to me.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Everybody that directly mentioned her. (I'm using a search utility, so if I miss any, forgive me?)

Originally Posted by Rikae Post 26

Valier's contradiction of The Might seems too easy. The Might has taken one extreme, Valier the other - it seems almost scripted, and I don't like it - especially since Valier should know it isn't that simple (loud innocents seem to be the most typical Day 1 lynches.) It also continues the fruitless loud/quiet debate.

...

Valier basically excuses herself from not participating in further discussion (I will be lurking around) and establishes herself as a slightly threatening figure (getting rid of the ones who have no excuse.) I can't say it doesn't look at least half wolfish.

...

At this point, Valier and Nerwen seem somewhat dubious to me, but this is very preliminary

Originally Posted by Lil Post 30

Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
I agree we need to keep an eye on quiet ones, I think it just really sucks when a person who is either always quiet or just has other priorities, is a wolf.

True again. But how is it possible to keep an eye on someone who never turns up?

Originally Posted by Nerwen Post 31

I agree with [Rikae], though, that Valier is sounding a little suspicious at the moment.

Originally Posted by Lommy Post 32

Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
It is way easier for a Wolf to stay hidden by being loud and opinionated than it is to stay quiet and subdued.

I disagree. The more you talk, the more probably you make a slip or contradict yourself (trust me, I have enough experience of both being a loudmouth and of being a hopelessly poor wolf ).

Originally Posted by Legate Post 34

Now I also looked back at Valier's post and let me say only that she seems a little getting close to the contradicting - herself edge. I must say I will keep an eye out and hopefully she appears yet (from what she says it seems she will).

Originally Posted by Brinniel Post 35

I agree that Valier's two posts seem rather contradictory, but I'm not sure that's enough to form an actual suspicion. But I will be watching her closely.

Originally Posted by Lommy Post 36

I really can't get what's so suspicious about Valier. I think she seems quite normal. Besides I'd be sad to lose her early if she hasn't lost her incredible hunches and also because she hasn't played for a while. Actually, I might say a few words on that topic. Unless she, Kuru, Fea, Farael or morm do something really suspicious or there has to be made a choice between some of them and someone who seems more innocent, I'm reluctant to lynch them today. I won't, of course, be as merciful later, but I'd be very sad to see one of them go early since I haven't played with them for a long time.

Originally Posted by Volo Post 39

I agree with [Rikae] on Valier. She was the first person who gave out a Wolf-feeling while I was reading through the thread. There's not much to go on, but somehow both of us got the feeling that she might be a Wolf. The "lurking around" sounds nasty and somehow I have a feeling that the ones to give clear times when they can't play are Wolves.

...

It seems that the suspicion is leaning to Valier. Maybe what she said was just badly phrased, but she's one of suspects too.

Originally Posted by Lil Post 41

Because of the continuous accusations on Valier, I read through her post again. Nothing too suspicious there, except maybe for this a little unnerving phrase: Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
But sometimes getting rid of at least the ones who have no excuse for their quietness is best.

If Valier is a wolf, that would be a perfect guise. If, as a wolf, she finds nothing too "suspicious" about anyone, she can just rely on voting for a quiet person.
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf.

Originally Posted by Legate Post 45

Quote:
Originally Posted by Lilla Greenhand
If Valier is a wolf, that would be a perfect guise. If, as a wolf, she finds nothing too "suspicious" about anyone, she can just rely on voting for a quiet person.
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf.

*Notes down: if she and Valier are the wolves, this would be very good move. Keep in mind for further.*

Originally Posted by Lommy Post 47

Quote:
Originally Posted by ALG
If Valier is a wolf, that would be a perfect guise. If, as a wolf, she finds nothing too "suspicious" about anyone, she can just rely on voting for a quiet person.
Otherwise I don't find Valier exceptionally wolf-ish. Besides, I have the impression that she is an experienced player. If so, she would probably not post a phrase like that as a wolf.

I don't find anything particularly suspicious with that. I do it quite often regardless of my role.

Originally Posted by Volo Post 49

Quote:
Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc
*Notes down: if she and Valier are the wolves, this would be very good move. Keep in mind for further.*

Well, not good enough as it was spotted... Now this makes me want to lean to lynching Valier and finding out what she is. I'll try to take the feeling critically.

Originally Posted by Mac Post 50

Volo looks suspicious to me. First he criticises Rikae along the lines Legate did, but much stronger, then he agrees with her and conveniently jumps on the Valier-bandwaggon (#39).

Originally Posted by Lommy Post 57

seem innocent to me and Legate and Valier too (both are just gut-feelings and based on their normal-seeming behaviour), but to a lesser extent.

Originally Posted by Volo 58

I'm not happy with voting Valier, but I haven't found any better reasons to vote anybody else. I hope she will return before any bandwagons will take place.

Originally Posted by Rikae 64

I'm glad to see Kath has joined the discussion, and I don't see anything objectionable in her post.
It is difficult to say anything about Aganzir at this point, but I'd like to know her opinion on Valier.

...

I do find Valier suspicious, and although I'd like the chance to play with her again (I think the only other game we had together was my first), there are good reasons not to vote for pretty much everyone on Day 1. What should we do, decide who's most "expendable" or who's most suspicious?

Originally Posted by Lil 72

Of Valier I am still very unsure. I'll be keeping an eye on her.

Originally Posted by Kuru 76

Valier is beginning to look a bit furry to me.

She seems unnecessarily defensive and then votes for Morm out of the blue on some...I'm not even sure "suspect suspicion" really adequately describes it.

Still I'm very reluctant to vote for her today.

Originally Posted by Rikae 77

I'm leaning toward giving Valier a chance to look guiltier, or more innocent toMorrow.

Originally Posted by Mac 88

Valier - her "lynch the quiet ones who have no excuse" is worrisome, but that's all I can find

Originally Posted by Brinn 89

I find Valier's vote to be a bit odd. Mainly because I can't see what's so suspicious about morm.

Originally Posted by Lommy 91

Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
I will be lurking around most of the evening, reading what people have to say, before I make a decision on who to vote for.

I can see a wolf thinking this, but I can't see a wolf saying this. Thereby Valier leans more to the innocent side, if you ask me.

Even though: Quote:
Originally Posted by Valier
But please I beg you...give me more time to help this village out, I am sure my feelings eventually will lead us to at least one of our furry friends.

This seems a bit vulgar of her. Everybody who's played with her she knows she truly has incredible hunches, but that kind of self-advertisement seems slightly furry. But that is not enough to make me really suspect her, I'd just like to point it out.

Originally Posted by morm 95

Valier seems far too concerned trying to save herself. The way I understood her posts was that since I usually suspect her and have been sucessful in the past, for better and wose, at getting her lynched she better kill me off. The remaining posts seem to be designed to keep her alive, too much so for me to think her an ordo. Call in knee-jerk if you wish but she seems most suspicious based on that.

++Valier

Originally Posted by Fea 97

Speaking of that, and more importantly: because he voted for Valier and I don't think he should have,

++Morm

Originally Posted by Aganzir 99

Considering Valier herself, she looks quite neutral to me. However, if a certain person(s) turned out to be a wolf, I'd look at her very carefully.

Originally Posted by Brinn 101

I don't particularly like morm's retorting vote for Valier, but still, I don't think it's suspicious enough to lynch him.

Originally Posted by Mac 104

Good points by Lommy and morm against Valier. Still, I'd like to keep her around for at least one more day.

Originally Posted by Mac 106

I would prefer Nerwen over Valier.

Originally Posted by Volo 116

++Valier

explanation in next post.

Originally Posted by Volo 118

Valier's post #70 is a bit too desperate.

Originally Posted by Morm 119

Desparate is a good word to describe her Volo. Thank you.

Originally Posted by Menel 122

Moreover, his stated reason for voting Valier is that she might get him lynched if she doesn't die soon. That really doesn't sound good.

Valier and The Might have been described as two wolves that agreed to adopt different playing styles, and I would agree with Rikae's sentiment that their interaction early on appears "scripted" as she put it. However, I doubt Valier is a wolf if a were-morm is willing to put her life in jeopardy.

Originally Posted by morm 125

Quote:
Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil
Moreover, his stated reason for voting Valier is that she might get him lynched if she doesn't die soon. That really doesn't sound good.

Menel, I think you misunderstood. I stated that it seemed to me that she wanted to kill me because I suspect her on occasion and have been successful at getting her lynched in the past (for better or worse). You seem to have turned it around the other way...why?

...

Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
However, I doubt Valier is a wolf if a were-morm is willing to put her life in jeopardy.

When I'm killed and it is found that I am innocent what does that mean?

Originally Posted by Volo 129

Leaning Evil:
Legate of Amon Lanc
A Little Green
Valier
Rikae

[Meneltarmacil]

Valier's dead and innocent, eh? Why not me? I could have left cooking instructions and everything...

Being mistaken for the Seer does sound like a good reason for a wolf-kill, and actually would suggest that morm is not really a wolf. I doubt a morm-wolf would vote for somebody that he was trying to lynch last night.

Or would he? He could be trying to double-bluff us.

Regarding his attack on my reasoning, he does seem to have a valid point about me. I did misunderstand his "Valier wants to kill me because I might lynch her" statement.

He follows it up by asking me

When I'm killed and it is found that I am innocent what does that mean?

in response to a statement I made about how Valier was likely an innocent if morm was a wolf. One memorable ancestor of mine met his end by saying "X is probaby innocent since Y appears wolfish, but if Y turns out to be innocent upon lynching, X could be a wolf." That was perceived as an attempt to cover his wolfish tracks, and my family has had trouble avoiding the use of such statements, especially on Day 1.

Now morm seems to be asking me to make a similar statement regarding Valier. A smart move for a wolf, goading the innocent into making his family's classic slip-up and going to the gallows for it.

However, the last Night's activities do cast doubt on a morm-wolf scenario, so caution is necessary. Mostly, I just wanted to talk here so as not to be too silent. Talking often is always a good idea.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Thinlómien - helpful, nice, happy, etcetera. My question about Lommy: when you jumped in to post that Valier's death looks like morm's guilt, did you believe it, or were you just being the first one to publicly admit to the possibility?

Legate of Amon Lanc - no particular feelings of interest.

Aganzir - furry? I don't know. I don't like his accusation of Lommy and I feel like I missed something between Ag and Legate, because 'that's definitely not how it works at us'... It's the 'at us.' Is it just a grammar slip? The meaning of the sentence is lost on me.

Meneltarmacil - Eh.

Volo - I had suspicions last night, but I forgot them before this morning. At some point I'll go back and try to figure out what it was that worried me about Volo.

Macalaure - shrug.

The Might - I think the suicide vote points to TM's innocence. I haven't changed my mind.

Mormegil - innocent. Or I'll be forced to lynch him day one every game in our future for so completely pulling one over on me.

Feanor of the Peredhil - what a pleasant young woman...

Brinniel - systematic. I feel like if I could take notes the same way she does, I'd get higher than a C in my Neoclassical/Romantic English Lit class this term... No particular feelings. I'd like to keep her around, even if just because she simplifies my life by taking useful notes.

Satansaloser2005 - shrug

Farael – shrug

A Little Green - definitely new. No denying the "what? I'm so confused, please pity me" is over-doing it a bit. A lot. I have to admit, she's a likely vote for me today.

Kath – I know I should be terrified of you, but I'm not. Why? What are you doing differently? What am I doing differently? There's something wrong here! Just to be clear: I feel like I should be suspicious because I'm always suspicious of Kath just like (and because of the same game) how I'm suspicious all the time of morm. Just to be very clear: I really have no leanings on Kath. I'd like to see more posts from her, though.

Rikae – will go out by mod-fire. I'm not going to waste my time.

Shastanis Althreduin – Is it bad that I don't even remember seeing any posts by Shasta?

Kuruharan - On an existential level, Kuru, where are you? I miss you. Come back soon. I don't know what to do when I'm not being thwacked. Oh, for the village: I want to see a lot more length out of Kuru in the next few days.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Aganzir - furry? I don't know. I don't like his accusation of Lommy and I feel like I missed something between Ag and Legate, because 'that's definitely not how it works at us'... It's the 'at us.' Is it just a grammar slip? The meaning of the sentence is lost on me.

Very simple, Fea. It was a reply to my remark pointing at the male-chauvinistic manners in the Sackville-Bagginses' family. Though I must say it's a good objection to be raised, since if at any hobbit family, it definitely does nor work like that at the Sackville-Bagginses from what we know. I have to remember that for further, since it was obviously off-role.

But anyway, it is a comment that does not concern the game itself.

And by the way, Aganzir is a "she".

[Meneltarmacil]

Gack! Should have been more active here.

Anyhow, it's getting close to the deadline, and I think I ought to vote. Regarding who seems suspicious, I'm going to go with something I noticed earlier in morm. Basically, he seems to be acting odd lately, posting a lot less than he has in the past (with one of them being a random accusation toss-out near the beginning). I agree that he seems suspicious. Moreover, his stated reason for voting Valier is that she might get him lynched if she doesn't die soon. That really doesn't sound good.

Valier and The Might have been described as two wolves that agreed to adopt different playing styles, and I would agree with Rikae's sentiment that their interaction early on appears "scripted" as she put it. However, I doubt Valier is a wolf if a were-morm is willing to put her life in jeopardy.

As for The Might's self-vote, that does not mean much to me. I remember a fellow from the old days of WW by the name of Nilpaurion Felagund who used to vote for himself all the time, Wolf or no.

My vote today is going to:

++mormegil

Now, since it seems unlikely that I'll be lynched today and have not made myself look suspicious enough to be lynched tomorrow, I can only assume that the wolves will eat me tonight. Therefore, after the Day is done, I'll make sure to set the dinner table for the guests and cover myself in butter.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Meneltarmacil

Moreover, his stated reason for voting Valier is that she might get him lynched if she doesn't die soon. That really doesn't sound good.

Menel, I think you misunderstood. I stated that it seemed to me that she wanted to kill me because I suspect her on occasion and have been successful at getting her lynched in the past (for better or worse). You seem to have turned it around the other way...why?

Originally Posted by Menel

Now, since it seems unlikely that I'll be lynched today and have not made myself look suspicious enough to be lynched tomorrow, I can only assume that the wolves will eat me tonight. Therefore, after the Day is done, I'll make sure to set the dinner table for the guests and cover myself in butter.

Rather odd again Menel. I don't like this thought and think it horribly suspicious to say something like this.

Originally Posted by Menel

However, I doubt Valier is a wolf if a were-morm is willing to put her life in jeopardy.

When I'm killed and it is found that I am innocent what does that mean?