WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by mormegil

Also, what Farael says about Lommy being her normal flip-floppy self is sadly true and that alone is one of the main reasons I always seem to suspect her...so while I still suspect her I must take preconceived notions about her into consideration.

Flip-flopping may be suspicious, but on the first or second day it's not surprising, as you really don't have much to go on.

Originally Posted by mormegil

It's also disappointing that nobody has really discussed the votes from yesterday.

Votes:
The Might 2 ~ Kath, Might
Lommy 1 ~ Nerwen
morm 4 ~ Valier, Sally, Fea, Menel
Nerwen 7 ~ Rikae, Brinn, Agan, Mac, Greenie, Lommy, Kuru
Valier 2 ~ morm, Volo

We did discuss this. Not a lot, but a bit. The day's not over, so give everyone a little time to mull things over. Although I was admittedly surprised to come back and see Nerwen as the lynchee. Definitely not what I expected, and if Morm does indeed to turn out to be a wolf I'll be giving Nerwen's voters a closer look.

Originally Posted by mormegil

Nicely, two known innocents were not in the voting for Nerwen.

I'm tired so I must have missed it. Known innocents? Where are our known innocents? Unless you mean the two deceased villagers of course, which could have been your intention. Just explain that a bit more please.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That's what I got out of it, Sally; Neither Valier nor Nerwen were in the voting for... well... Nerwen. I guess that sort of makes sense, doesn't it.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Alright, I'm not going to be around at the deadline tomorrow, so here's my (albeit short) list.

Leaning Innocent:

Kath
Sally
The Might

Leaning Suspicious:

Legate
Volo
Morm

Can't get a read on:

Everyone else

There's one vote placed for Morm already, and since many more votes are going to be coming anyway, I'll go with my top suspect at the moment:

++ Volo

Good night everyone.

[Thinlómien]

Morm's long post (#175) made me feel much better about him. His calmness, his decreased aggression towards me and his vote-analysis seem clearly the most innocentish stuff that has come out of his keyboard. Even though I know a good wolf is capable of writing a post like that and I know morm's capable of being a good wolf, I'm less sure about morm's guilt. I know it is perfectly possible that the wolves killed Valier even if morm wasn't a wolf, but I still think it a bit more credible that morm's wovisness would be a part of the reasons they ended up killing Valier.

And morm, Legate did vote:

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, from the above, it looks like not in the slightest problematic fifty or seventy votes for Nerwen, so I am not afraid any longer to vote for her. Even if all of those who said that were wolves and change their votes, well, at least we will know them all toMorrow. To avoid further confusion,

++Nerwen

I think I need to reread again and pay extra attention to morm's posts and yesterday's votes and those I think are slipping under my radar, ie Sally, Shasta, Kath and Kuru.

EDIT: xed with Shasta's two posts

[Thinlómien]

My thoughts on you others come here. I only had time to reread yesterDay's posts, though.

Innocentish
Volo - He makes sense. I think he raises arguments a wolf wouldn't raise and his tone and suspicions seem genuine.
Macalaure - Quite often (or almost always) when he's a wolf he seems somewhat tense and un-relaxed and there's something edgy in his manner. All that is missing this time. If Rikae proves to be a wolf, I'd be quite confident he's innocent: she treats him like she would not treat a fellow wolf. (No time to elaborate on that right now. I'll do it later, if Rikae proves to be a wolf.)
Farael - Reasonable and innocently calm, raises good points and jokes in an innocentish manner. Right now, I have no reason to be troubled by him.

A tiny bit innocent-ish
Legate of Amon Lanc - There's nothing in his posts that seems particularly suspicious to me. His relaxed, calm and somewhat joking manner seems quite genuinely innocentish. Why he doesn't belong to the "innocentish" category, though, is that I have a nagging bad feeling that he really isn't as innocent as he seems.
Shastanis Althreduin - Now there is definitely not much to go on, but I doubt he would be that uninvolved as a wolf. There's nothing that'd make my wolf-spotting radar beep in his posts or manner. I think I need to see more of his posts to be surer, though.

Gray zone
Feanor of the Peredhil - There really isn't much to go on. She seems somehwat distant, playful and rational all the same time and I really can't say anything about her before she makes the post about her feelings she promised to make.
Aganzir - Generally, she feels quite rational and sincere, but she makes some vague comments like "Considering Valier herself, she looks quite neutral to me. However, if a certain person(s) turned out to be a wolf, I'd look at her very carefully" and odd comments like that I seem to be protecting and warning Greenie.
Meneltarmacil - He seems quite sincere and doesn't send out the wolvish vibe he usually does as a wolf. On the other hand, I really don't like he repeatedly talks about the wolves eating him. If he had said it once, I would have no issue with it, but twice and with such an overreacting tone is a bit too much for me to overlook.
Kath - Otherwise, she seems and feels innocentish, but I really don't like her yesterday's vote. It seems a bit forced.

Slightly suspicious
Satansaloser2005 - Now, she seems be just joke and be in-character while making a few serious points, just enough to maintain a presence. I don't like some of her comments like "By the way, great posts today!". I don't know, I really can't reason this very much but I have a slight bad feeling about her: I'll be watching her more closely.
Brinniel - Her first post still strikes me as wolvish. Her other posts could be either way.
The Might - The more I think of it, the less I like his self-vote. It seems like something he would have done as a wolf (since Rikae did it as an innocent in the last game). Also, his notable lack of suspicions seems a bit wolvish too - of course it's difficult for a wolf to come up with suspicions and newbie wolves often make the mistake here. All in all, I'm not very convinced of his guilt, though. He needs to be watched.
Kuruharan - He has chosen a playing style that is very convenient for a wolf. There's something suspicious in his overall tone and I can't really see why did he vote Nerwen, not me, yesterDay. There was no threat of a double-lynch in the air anymore when he voted, or so I see it.

Suspicious
Mormegil - Everything that I've said of him and Valier's death. His manner is somewhat suspicious as well (but I don't know if anyone should take that as a serious argument from me as I always seem to find his manner suspicious).
A Little Green - Like I said, I don't like the tone of her first few posts and her latest seemed quite wolvish. There's something very fishy in her overall manner.

It is quite useless to read and make conclusions of Rikae's posts as her role is to be revealed soon.

EDIT: xed with Agan

[A Little Green]

That would actually lead me to suspect the loud ones more than the quiet.

I suppose I'll have to explain that comment a little. What I meant by that was more a response to Aganzir's

Originally Posted by Agan

At least one of the wolves is rather quiet and Valier was considered dangerous as she said we should keep an eye on the quiet ones.

-point. I wanted to point out that Valier also said that it is easier for a wolf to hide behind being loud.

Originally Posted by Agan

But wouldn't it be best to suspect those who look the most suspicious, in spite of whether they're loud or quiet?

Of course. I agree that my comment is somewhat generalised. I hope no one seriously thinks I am counting the posts by everyone with a calculator and vote for the one with the biggest amount of posts.

Originally Posted by Kath

Greenie, why would Nerwen's innocence make Lommy look guilty?

I never said guilty. What I said was more like "I'll have to look through her posts again". What I meant was that I'd have to check through her posts, especially those concerning Nerwen, and see if there is anything in there that hints to her actually knowing Nerwen was innocent all the time. That goes of course for the other Nerwen-voters as well.

Originally Posted by Agan

Quote:
Originally Posted by Menel
Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?
A good question and worth asking. But. It reminds me of
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kuru
I was also made very uncomfortable by her...

Quote:
Might you elaborate on that? What helpful or pseudo-helpful have I done that makes you suspect me?

...as if she wants to know what to do differently to cover herself.
It could be interpreted as Menel-wolf having read the thread well and "doing the dirty work" on behalf of his fellow-wolf.

Sorry Agan, but I don't quite follow your logic there.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Well, possibly, but usually wolves are willing to sacrifice one of their own to get rid of the seer ie they do go after seer-like people even if it points back at them.

You see, Lommy, as it happens I have no idea of what wolves "usually" do. Your comment seems somewhat sensible, though.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Mormegil - Everything that I've said of him and Valier's death. His manner is somewhat suspicious as well (but I don't know if anyone should take that as a serious argument from me as I always seem to find his manner suspicious).

PLEASE, WHAT MAKES MORM SO SUSPICIOUS? I still don't get it, despite the various arguments made on a connection between Valier's death and morm's guilt. Also, I don't know if this is an ordinary Lommy flip-flop, but...

Originally Posted by Lommy

Quote:
Originally Posted by Green
Aaaargh someone please enlighten me on what's so overly suspicious about morm? I reread his posts and found nothing too alarming there.
I agree. While he definitely doesn't glow with the light of innocence, he does not seem overtly hairy either.

Lommy, what made you suddenly think morm's manner as suspicious?

Oh dear, this is so complicated. I think I will read through the entire thread and write more after that.

[Brinniel]

I just spent several hours taking 20+ pages of notes (and now probably won't be going to bed), so now I'm going to post these notes (though more briefly), which are basically summaries of what everyone has said (minus less important points) along with my thoughts (in italics).

I'm a bit exhausted, so hopefully my thoughts won't be too unclear and let me know if I misinterpreted anything. Btw, I'm not analysing every detail because that's just too lengthy. Anyways, beware of flood posting...I'm about to do it:

Analysis of Volo:

Day 1

#13: States quiet will probably be lynched Day 1 or 2. He'd rather lynch quiet ones over the loud ones if he has no good suspicions.

#39: Clarifies that if a loud ordo is lynched Day 1, a quiet will be lynched Day 2 because there's more to analyse about louder players on Day 3. Thinks Legate is too friendly.

#42: Disagrees with Fea: "Day 1s are not for outright assuming that random votes are the best solution"

#49: Wonders if Legate has "waterproof points" or "holds the voice of Saruman." In a response to Legate's comment, he considers voting Valier to see what she is (in the possibility that Green might be evil too, I think)

#116: Votes Valier. Explains in #118 that her vote was too desparate.

#129:Makes a list:
Leaning Good: Lommy, Menel, Mac, Might, Morm
Neutral: Aganzir, Fea, Brinn, Sally, Farael, Shasta, Kuru, Kath, Nerwen
Leaning Evil: Legate, Green, Valier, Rikae

Notes: My suspicions on him yesterDay were more of a hunch than anything. I remember finding his first posts confusing, then he goes back and explains. While Volo seems to suspect Legate so much, he seems to begin considering voting Valier based on a comment he made ("*Notes down: if she [Green] and Valier are the wolves, this would be very good move."). I find it a bit strange that while he finds Legate worrisome, he still seems to follow his word.

Day 2

#154: Lommy is hurrying to understand the wolves- similar to what she did when she was a wolf herself. But he does agree that Valier was probably thought to be seer.

Considers that if Valier was thought as seer, then morm is guilty. Or she was kill because she left no-trails and one wolf is "sporty"

I disagree. Valier left a nice big trail...to morm. Of course, maybe you mean no trails to the wolves. Still waiting to find out what "sporty" means...

#160: Doubts Valier would be killed as a seer if morm is not a wolf. Asks Rikae why she changed her style from the last game (before saying Day 1 was a waste, now saying it's useful). He says he's sure Lommy's been seered upon and doesn't suspect her.

Question: What makes you think that Lommy's been seered upon (I'm assuming you mean dreamt of)? I think it's more likely morm was dreamt of...

Conclusion: While I don't see anything that makes Volo obviously suspicious, I still find some posts a bit strange (which I commented on above). I'm still not sure about him.

EDIT: X-ed with Legate, Mac, Green, Legate

[Brinniel]

(Once again, I'm not analysing every single post, only the ones I think are important. Otherwise, everything will just be too lengthy.)

Analysis of Mac:

Day 1

#50: Doesn't see how Rikae could form an opinion on him based on his first post which was completely roleplay. Thinks Nerwen is more tense than she was last game. Volo is suspicious- criticises Rikae then agrees and jumps on the Valier bandwagon.

#59: Doesn't think Volo's reason for suspecting Rikae ("her analysis was not helpful enough") is not a good enough reason to suspect her.

#75: Finds Nerwen continuously defensive. If no one else will suspect Volo, he'll look elsewhere.

#88: A long analytical post:
Innocent or speaks sense: Lommy, Legate, Aganzir, Menel, Might, Brinn, Kuru
No idea: Volo, morm, Fea, Farael, Rikae, Shasta
Leaning Guilty: Sally, Green, Nerwen, Valier, Kath

#104: Thinks Might's self-vote was a "tantrum" - probably innocent

#121: Votes Nerwen

Quite honestly, I don't see anything that alarms me about Mac. He seems to think well through his suspicions and as a wolf, I find him to be a lot more accusing. I'm thinking he's innocent for now.

Okay, from posts #188 and on I'm not going to include in my analysis because I finished before they posted, and I just don't have the time or energy to keep picking apart everything as I go.

EDIT: X-ed with Volo

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Might:

Day 1

#7: Says he'd rather vote for the quiet players.

#10: The quiet ones are more suspicious.

Now it is at these very first statements that causes the controversy. Yet, I find usually the one who starts controversy and grabs attention is innocent. I would almost rather look at those who continued this discussion past its expiration date for any wolvishness.

#53: A defensive post. Doesn't want to vote without proof or explaining reasons.

#69: Thinks people are taking him too seriously. They shouldn't vote for him just because he's out of the ordinary. Doesn't want the same patterns as last game.

Originally, I saw this as suspicious...mainly because of the "don't vote me, because I'm different" statement.

#78: Votes for himself.

I still think the self-vote really did come out of frustration and curiousity. Though, it's always possible that as a wolf he did it knowing people would avoid a repeat of last game. But I doubt it.

Day 2

#139: Says his self-vote was because he wasn't in the mood of getting votes because he was confusing and he was curious if people would actually lynch him. Finds Legate suspicious.

His explanation seems legit. I want to know why he finds Legate suspicious, though.

Conclusion: My opinion hasn't changed. Might is still leaning innocent for me.

[Brinniel]

Analysis of Sally:

Day 1

#20: Notes that in the last game the last baddie was silent mostly. We should pay attention to when and what people post.

#63: Is reluctant to vote the quiet just because they're quiet. Same reasons for the loud players.

#94: Finds morm fuzzy- a hunch. Doesn't want to see Might die by her hand. Votes Morm.

I'm a little uncomfortable about her vote for morm. I don't like when votes are based only on hunches and nothing else. But still, she doesn't ring any alarms.

Day 2

#167: Agrees that Valier's post could be interpreted as seerish. Could still be thought that way whether morm was a wolf or not. If not, he was also framed. Or Valier could've been picked randomly.

I doubt the wolves picked Valier randomly.

#169: Votes morm

#182: Says she was surprised by Nerwen's lynching. Will look at those who voted her if morm is a wolf.

We should look at Nerwen voters regardless if morm is a wolf. After all, there were seven votes. A wolf is hidden in there somewhere.

Conclusion: Sally is certainly persistant with morm. If he is a wolf, I doubt she is one too. For now, I'm pretty unsure on her.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Volo

Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves.

WHAT??? That's probably the most peculiar argument I've seen this far. Could you explain again, Volo? Unexplained, I definitely find this argument disturbing.

EDIT: x-ed with Brinn

[Volo]

Popping in to answer, haven't read all. Family'll throw me out if I don't go party Chrismas with them.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

WHAT??? That's probably the most peculiar argument I've seen this far. Could you explain again, Volo? Unexplained, I definitely find this argument disturbing.

Simple. 1. I think that they're honest because I conclude as they do independadly. For proof look at my post at about 11PM GMT where I promise to show my ideas and my preveous post which is nearly a cross-post with Legate and Lommy so I couldn't have searched for my thoughts about you and Sally after Legates post so fast.
2. A lot will be cleared about them if our suspects are Innocent or Wolves. Which will reveal a lot (to me) about both Lommy's and Legate's roles. I find it stupid to suspect them at this point.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Volo

I doubt that Valier was killed for looking like a Seer if morm isn't a Wolf, so in that case it would be just to frame him. Which leads us to nothing.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Volo, could you explain that point? Might be due to my being very very tired, but I don't quite grasp it. And also, what do you mean by "sporty" in that other post of yours? Some advanced werewolf-slang, is it? If so, well I don't get it

Oh, I assure you I was at least as tired when I wrote it. But what I meant is this:
Morm is Innocent and the Wolves know it. Valier attacks morm in a way that can be interpreted as an attack by a Seer. But the Wolves know that Valier didn't dream of morm if she dreamt at all. And except that I see very little in her saying that she'd be the Seer. Concluding that the Wolves didn't think of Valier as the Seer.
The problem is that this talk about how the Wolves saw Valier lead to nothing. It is fun to bring your own thoughts about how the Wolves thought when they chose their kill, but I don't see how it can discussed at Day and turn out productive. For the simple reason that the Wolves might bluff, double-bluff, shoot the darkness, plan something very complicated, kill a certain type of player. And the Innocents have no way of knowing what the Wolves thought until the end of game.
Ok, that might have been a bit overreacted, but toDay is concentrated too much on what the Wolves might have thought at Night, it's nearly as unproductive and confusing as the quiet/loud discussion. As Farael already mentioned, by the way.
(I personally think that they chose Valier because she'd leave no trail.)

By "sporty" in meant that they'd rather kill quiet players than players know to be dangerous. I'll try not to say something as cryptic again.


Now at last to what I think about who the Wolves might be.

(There's a list of my preveous suspicions in post #129.)


Sally: Now she sure hunts morm! She constantly flirts with the idea of being a Wolf, which seems like something a Wolf wouldn't do, but it's driving me crazy. I'm capable of imagining a Wolf who does that, even a newbie Wolf - no, especially a newbie Wolf. Sally appologised that she wouldn't be productive, and truly, she hasn't been productive. I'm thinking of she might be a Wolf who thinks of being very far from being lynched - there's not enough try there, as if her appologisive tone is an excuse for just being around.
The more I read her posts, the more I feel that that's our Wolf.

Green:

Originally Posted by Green

Aaaargh someone please enlighten me on what's so overly suspicious about morm? I reread his posts and found nothing too alarming there.

This looks very suspicious. Why would she concentrate on morm so much at that time if they weren't Wolves? Seems very out of place. Instead of "what did I do wrong", a "what did my partner do wrong".
Post #123 is on the whole very suspicious:
1. It feels like Green is voting just because she has to vote and not because she really suspects Nerwen, her reason being rather odd to me (Well, then again I don't really understand why Nerwen was lynched in the first place - although lynching Valier would have been no better ).
2. I'm not completely sure about this, but the way Green turns her suspicion at Lommy in the same post as she votes another person is worrying. I've seen many Innocents doing this, so I can't decide if this should be taken into account.

morm: I haven't looked too closely at toDays posts of his as there simply hasn't been enough time, but he is linked to both of my main suspects and that makes me suspect his as well.


Leaning Good:
Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. If we are wrong, I'll look at them more closely. Both feel Innocent toDay.
Mac
The Might
Fea

I don't have any ideas formed about these at the moment:
Meneltarmacil
Aganzir
Farael
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan

There's something nasty there, I'll see to it when I have the time:
Kath
Brinniel


I'm late for a meeting and I Xd with everything since #188.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Volo

Leaning Good:
Because Legate and Lommy agree with me, I don't think that they are Wolves. If we are wrong, I'll look at them more closely. Both feel Innocent toDay.
Mac
The Might
Fea

I don't have any ideas formed about these at the moment:
Meneltarmacil
Aganzir
Farael
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan

There's something nasty there, I'll see to it when I have the time:
Kath
Brinniel


I'm late for a meeting and I Xd with everything since #188.

you left me off your list love.



P.S. I just realized that Morm voted Volo. So chain of events is Sally votes Morm, Volo finds Sally suspicious for picking on Morm, Morm votes Volo. Unless my logic is hugely flawed, that means that it is unlikely that both of us are wolves, Morm and I that is. Because A: why the heck would I vote him both days so vigorously, unless I am either incredibly stupid or incredibly clever, B: the same for Morm's actions today in a way, voting someone who finds me suspicious is either ballsy or idiotic, C: okay I can't think of a C right now but that's alright I'm sure someone else will analyze this post in a bit anyway.

I'm making no comment on my potential wolfishness really because it's not worth my time to be honest. Just pointing out that if one of us is lynched or killed and revealed as a wolf, the other is most likely not a wolf. (Which is me by the way the non-wolf me yes me i'm an ordo! sorry quick plug for kicks and giggles) Just for reference. (That sounds hugely suspicious but I'm tired so I can't really explain it any better right now.)



Ah, huzzah it seems I have caused a bit of a stir! Yay!

Okay now I really must run or I'll be late for church.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmmmmmmm. I have read everything but I probably don't have anything constructive to add to the discussion right now. The best thing I can do now is to ventilate the thoughts that go through my mind on everyone:

GREEN ZONE

Farael
Lommy
Volo

YELLOW ZONE

Brinniel - like I said earlier, seems okay. Though in the last game, she seemed okay to me and was a wolf. In fact, I got similar feelings about her as I get now. But there is nothing more to support the fact.
Fea - seems trying to look helpful or simply does what she does, and there is nothing particularly suspicious about her now.
LG, though the more I read the more I am getting paranoid about her. But that's not my fault, that's how some others still speak about her...
Macalaure - where is he, anyway?
Shasta. There is very little to be gathered about him. A little out-of-game note: I once again realised that I am thinking of him as about female. And that goes on and on even though I repeatedly noticed that and tried to do something with that in about four or more earlier games. Please Shasta, do you mind if I call you differently, because Shasta and Shastanis still both seem like female names to me. Could I, for my personal purpose, call you either Shastan or Shast? I know it both sounds horrible, but it will help me much. And you can pick the one you like better

ORANGE ZONE

My lovely wife Ah heck, she's in fact almost in the yellow zone, just there is something in the way she posts... that makes me feel uncomfortable.
Kath makes me feel somewhat uneasy.
Kuru. My suspicion about him from tomorrow still lasts. Where is he toDay?
Meneltarmacil - as it was mentioned here, maybe he's a little overdoing that with his "Number five is still alive!" comments.
Mormegil Harrybelly - like I said, it's 60:40 now with him that he may be a wolf.
The Might I just made an interesting theory on what behavior he could have adopted had he been a wolf. It was based on the observation of his behavior in the last game. I'd say a wolf-Might could have picked a good innocent horse and follow his judgements, no one could blame him ("I am a newbie and I am not sure, so I follow other people whom I consider wise"). Actually, he said that in one of his first posts, but seemingly he does not do that. Maybe his hope was ruined by my negative response. Nevertheless, it's a theory I thought of when trying to imagine a wolf-Might.
Sally Like I said in my first post toDay.


RED ZONE

More or less waiting to be filled with the person who I am going to vote for.


And Morm, I did vote. I see some kind souls even explained that for me already... But whatever, seems to me that it was not your fault but probably Kath's, since she did not, for whatever reason, place my name in the list of voters, and it looks like you used the list of votes she placed in her post, right? Anyway, here you can see that it's better to see to everything yourselves and not just copy what others post.

[Macalaure]

I have little time now, so here I my thoughts about the most important matters, I think. I have only skimmed today's post so far. I'll be there starting a few hours before the deadline.


1. Why Valier:

1.1. The wolves thought Valier was the seer

1.1.1. morm is a wolf
In that case, they would have killed Valier, because no possible seer should be left alive from a wolvish perspective. They would have sacrificed morm without a second thought, and then morm would be here telling us it was a frame and pointing out its weakness.

1.1.2. morm is no wolf
Same as above, but now they might have had a vague hope people might turn against mormegil.

1.2. The wolves didn't think Valier was the seer

1.2.1. They picked her because she left no tracks to them.
I can't think this is the case. There were better options for that purpose that were not suspected by so many.

1.2.2. They picked her because she is a strong player who was yet undangerous
Possible, but this would mean that all other players who are considered to be strong were on the right track to some degree. Given the way the votes for Nerwen went, I'd say this is unlikely.

1.2.3. They tried to frame morm
I don't think so, because, as morm pointed out, it's a very weak frame.

1.3. Conclusion: I think they thought Valier to be the seer. There seems to be no indication to whether morm is a wolf or not. However, the way he made fun of the possibility that it was a frame seems odd to me. In fact, Lommy's accusation and morm's response to it give me a slight furry-furry taste.


2. The votes

2.1. I said it yesterday and I say it today: I don't like Kath's vote for TM.
2.2. The Might's intention to find out whether a self-vote would have the same effect it had on Rikae in a village of yore makes him look suspicious. It would be a good wolf-survival-tactic.
2.3. Sally votes morm due to a hunch. She adds a fourth name, which would only make sense for a wolf-Sally if neither Lommy nor TM are wolves.
2.4. morm vote for Valier would make sense for both cases, evil and good morm.
2.5. Fea adds a vote to morm. This probably rules out the possibility of both of them being wolves
2.6. Brinn's vote keeps Nerwen in the run. A good move for a wolf if all the others candidates were innocent - or all guilty, but that's unlikely.

Then Kuru and I make comments about a double-lynch and then people start announcing their votes. In hindsight, it was a bad idea to make them do this. From this point on, It was way too easy to hide behind Nerwen-votes (Legate, Lommy, Aganzir, A Little Green and me)

2.7. Of these four, Legate's vote seems most suspicious for me. His vote (after the announcements) manifests the inevitable outcome. It's suspicious how, after seeing many options in his posts before, he turns towards Nerwen very quickly at this point - no longer looking at alternative options any more.
2.8. If Volo is honest about not reading page 3, then his vote for Valier seems innocent. But that's an "if" in there.
2.9. Aganzir and I cross-vote for Nerwen. After Legate's vote, the path to go for the wolves was clear. For both of us this would have been an easy vote if one of us was a wolf.
2.10. Menel votes for morm in a confused manner. Looks innocent.
2.11. A Little Green (are we sure we want to shorten this to Green or Greenie?) adds her vote for Nerwen. Suspicious.

Now Legate pops in with a reminder about double-lynchs that seems overdone. So many people have announced their votes that there was no real risk of a double-lynch anymore. I find this comment very suspicious as it seems to desire to mislead the remaining voters.

2.12. Lommy votes for Nerwen and I agree that this looks suspicious because of her "I hope she's not an ordo". False tears?
2.13. Kuru adds the last one. He's the only one not to announce his vote, which one could interpret in evil and in good ways.
2.14. Non-voters: Shasta and Farael.


Suspicions basing solely on these comments:

Suspicious: Lommy, Legate, morm

A Little Suspicious: Aganzir, The Might, A Little Green, Kath

Unknown: Vo?o (no typo ), Fea, Sally, Farael, Shasta

Innocentish: Menel, Brinn, Kuru


More later.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Mac, just a note. If you think my vote was fishy in any way, look at my post #105. A post before, you personally pointed out the danger of double-lynch and I was the first one who asked whether people are going to vote Nerwen and then after me there was the line of others, including you, who confirmed they'll vote for Nerwen.

[Aganzir]

Legate dear, that's definitely not how it works at us. But if you are very hungry, well, maybe you can find something from a certain hobbit's place...

I dislike the way Lommy was immediately saying that Valier was probably killed because she left seer hints. While I agree it sounds the most probable, I think we should not ignore other things that might have contributed to her death, like Lommy seemed to be trying to do.

Menel is making me a bit nervous, mainly because of that "why wasn't I killed during the Night?" attitude. I understand if he's used to getting killed early, but the butter thing and "why not me?"... As if he was trying to convince everybody how surprised even he himself was that he wasn't killed.

Originally Posted by Menel

Please elaborate, Rikae. What do you find suspicious about Macalaure?

A good question and worth asking. But. It reminds me of

Originally Posted by Kuru

I was also made very uncomfortable by her...

Quote:
Might you elaborate on that? What helpful or pseudo-helpful have I done that makes you suspect me?

...as if she wants to know what to do differently to cover herself.

It could be interpreted as Menel-wolf having read the thread well and "doing the dirty work" on behalf of his fellow-wolf.

The wolves indeed chose their kill well if we're going to argue the whole day about if Valier's death points at morm's guilt or innocence, the wolves trying to frame him or whatever. It's easy to appear helpful with long posts speculating why a morm-wolf would or would not have killed Valier, and that makes me a little wary about Brinniel, Fea and Volo who did practically nothing else.

Originally Posted by morm

I guess that this is assuming that all four wolves voted...who didn't vote? Shasta and who?

Actually Farael was the other who didn't vote. Legate voted for Nerwen.

edit: xed with two Shastas and a Lommy

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Legate dear, that's definitely not how it works at us. But if you are very hungry, well, maybe you can find something from a certain hobbit's place...

Huh?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

While I agree it sounds the most probable, I think we should not ignore other things that might have contributed to her death, like Lommy seemed to be trying to do.

Okay. Like what? Why do you think Valier died, Aganzir? Way to rip on Lommy and then do what you're criticizing her for.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Feanor of the Peredhil - There really isn't much to go on. She seems somehwat distant, playful and rational all the same time and I really can't say anything about her before she makes the post about her feelings she promised to make.

I did make that post. In 140/165 when I hit edit instead of quote and ended up replacing my list of Val-posts:

Originally Posted by me

Okay.

So I think the wolves killed her to frame morm, like I already said.

But I also think they probably killed her because of how plainly she was expressing her confidence in her gut reactions. Because we all get whims, you know? And we'd like to think we're right. But she said outright that she was sure she was going to discover a wolf.

And whether or not she did discover a wolf, that statement ("I AM going to find you" instead of "so I think I might be right") would be an eye-catcher.

So pretty much I agree with Legate saying

Quote:
the wolves said "Look, probably a Seer" (and even if she isn't, why not to try).
and

Quote:
Other possibility, likewise probable - morm is not a wolf, but the wolves noticed an opportunity to pass the guilt on someone else. Why not? Solving two problems at once.
So yeah. I think Valier died not because she'd nailed a wolf but because the wolves had a two-birds-with-one-stone philosophy.

At least that's what makes the most sense to me.

Originally Posted by Lil

PLEASE, WHAT MAKES MORM SO SUSPICIOUS?

1) he's morm (that means he's suspicious)
2) he voted for somebody people think looked, in retrospect, seerish
3) that person, who expressed suspicion in him, died in the night
4) he treated the accusation as a joke

To explain 1, mormegil is really good at this game. People who have played with him know it. He's always suspicious because everyone knows that whether or not he's guilty, he's not going to give tell tale signs. It'll be up to luck for them.

For 2 and 3, it makes it look like he's involved in Valier's death.

For 4, which I think is a bad reason to suspect him: he's treating the 'frame job' lightly. I would too. I'd have come back first thing in the morning and started laughing.

Basically, morm has as much of a chance of being a wolf as any of us.

So it's stupid to say "he must be." Because he mustn't.

The thing that makes him that much more suspicious is this:

Knowing what would happen if Valier died in the night, either

a) the wolves set him up with his permission, or
b) they set him up without it.

Either way, I'll flat out and say I think it's obvious that he's being set up. This series of events just doesn't happen without that being the case.

The wolves cast suspicion on him, regardless of his role. They knew that he'd be spotlighted today. They knew he'd be an entire Day's worth of distraction.

The suspicion lays entirely in whether or not morm knew what was going to happen before it happened.

Pretty much, the village is wasting their time chasing him around when all of the evidence is circumstantial at best. Either a wolf or he's not. We could kill him to find out, but I think we're wasting our debate on him. I think the wolves are probably sitting back and giggling.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

# 40: Doesn't think Day 1 psots will have substance. There's nothing to go on since the wolves have nothing to hide.

Just to clarify: I think Day 1 posts have substance. I just don't think it's the kind you can see while they're being said. It's a 20/20 hindsight thing. I think that as days progress, Day 1 always makes a lot more sense.

I'm going back to bed. Somebody wake me up in time to do homework.