WW XXXX - The scouring of the Shire, vol.2

[Thinlómien]

Right now, my list looks like this:

Wolves
satansaloser2005
mormegil
Feanor of the Peredhil

Innocent
Thinlómien
Aganzir
Meneltarmacil
Volo
Macalaure
The Might
Brinniel
Farael
Kath
Shastanis Althreduin
Kuruharan

edit: xed with Farael

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Wolves
satansaloser2005
mormegil
Feanor of the Peredhil

May I ask why me, dear?

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

So my first thought today is:

I totally would have killed Kuru to leave a very minimal trail.

Which then makes me ask why the wolves passed up that opportunity and picked Legate.

Which makes me want to go back and see what the benefits of lynching Legate over somebody who had barely said or done anything and could have been killed with very little fuss.

I assume because of the talk-effect.

Let me explain the talk-effect to you.

When I'm a wolf, sometimes I'll pass up an easy kill in order to orchestrate something a lot more verbose. Framing morm for example. My hat's off to whoever put that one together. Provided he's innocent (even if he's not), the wolves just got an entire day where only one person (ie: not them) was concentrated on.

The talk-effect, as I have dubbed it, is the concentrated effort to direct all of the discussion where you want it. It's killing the person who will inspire the most chat which has nothing to do with you.

Killing Kuru makes sense to me in that the village wouldn't have a trail.

Killing Legate makes sense to me in that we might have been handed a false trail.

So my suggestion for today is that we look harshly at everyone. Not just at those Legate suspected. Try to find behavioral patterns which we can continue to trace as the game progresses.

Though by all means, we should ask about Legate. Obviously.

I just don't think we should repeat yesterday's strategy of ignoring most of the village.

[Brinniel]

Two things that caught my eye:

Originally Posted by A Little Green Wolf

Volo is troubling me greatly at the moment. Though his latest post explained a little, there is definitely something there I don't like. Just a gut-feeling, probably.
[...] I'm ready to go for Volo as well if there is a great possibility of a double-lynch that my voting for Volo would prevent.

and

Originally Posted by Menel

I have now gone back and read the posts of A Little Green.

She strikes me as somebody who has failed to notice a couple of important things or is intentionally ignoring them.

First, she continually asks what is so suspicious about morm, despite the fact that reasons for suspicion have been given already. Second, she doesn't seem to understand why I'm being careful about voicing opinions and why I've made a couple of jokes about not being eaten.

The first point, as stated earlier, could indicate a morm-Green partnership.

Since A Little Green does seem to be kind of new here, I'm going to give her the benefit of the doubt for now and go with

++mormegil

Okay, I suspected Green because she was too careful, and indeed she was...classic newbie behaviour. That's why her quote about Volo gets to me. She says he's troubling her, but she's not sure because it's more of a gut feeling. Then she says she'd be willing to vote for him to prevent a double-lynch. She does, though in an effort to save herself. It could've easily been a wolf-on-wolf vote.

Menel's post makes me uncomfortable. He goes on about how he finds Green suspicious and comes up with this Green-morm theory. In the end, he concludes that Green's suspiciousness is just newbie behaviour and votes morm. Could that be a wolf trying to save his mate?

Other thoughts:

Why was Legate killed? Well, he wasn't seriously suspected by anyone and perhaps the wolves noticed that. Is it possible they thought he was the seer? I don't know...I fear putting too much thought into seer theories after the discussion it led to yesterDay..

Anyways, I'm still not quite sure about Lommy. While she was persistant on Green yesterDay, she did make a big deal about not voting for her Day 1 because she was a newbie. Still, I think I might bump her down to the neutral zone because she doesn't seem quite as suspicious as she did yesterDay.

Even as a newbie, I don't think Green would go to such great lengths to protect a fellow wolf, so that makes morm innocentish in my eyes.

EDIT: Mass X-ed from #271 on. Geesh...

EDIT: No, wait...I x-ed with Kuru's post too. You guys are posting too fast for me to catch up!

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Two things that caught my eye:

and


Okay, I suspected Green because she was too careful, and indeed she was...classic newbie behaviour. That's why her quote about Volo gets to me. She says he's troubling her, but she's not sure because it's more of a gut feeling. Then she says she'd be willing to vote for him to prevent a double-lynch. She does, though in an effort to save herself. It could've easily been a wolf-on-wolf vote.

Menel's post makes me uncomfortable. He goes on about how he finds Green suspicious and comes up with this Green-morm theory. In the end, he concludes that Green's suspiciousness is just newbie behaviour and votes morm. Could that be a wolf trying to save his mate?

Other thoughts:

Why was Legate killed? Well, he wasn't seriously suspected by anyone and perhaps the wolves noticed that. Is it possible they thought he was the seer? I don't know...I fear putting too much thought into seer theories after the discussion it led to yesterDay..

Anyways, I'm still not quite sure about Lommy. While she was persistant on Green yesterDay, she did make a big deal about not voting for her Day 1 because she was a newbie. Still, I think I might bump her down to the neutral zone because she doesn't seem quite as suspicious as she did yesterDay.

Even as a newbie, I don't think Green would go to such great lengths to protect a fellow wolf, so that makes morm innocentish in my eyes.

Brinn has made the most sense to me. I think she is on to something honestly and I've had a bad feeling about Volo and Menel...but to be fair I still do about Lommy. To put one other in I have Kuru as a suspect. His first post today seems really dd to me. Kuru, as a veteran, should know that if I were a wolf I would never allow such a thing as what Green said. I think it far less likely that a wolf would say something like that than attack, slightly attack mind you, another wolf. Kuru, I'm a bit disappointed in your efforts.

Top suspects:

Volo
Menel
Lommy
Kuru

Mind you I've only read to just after Brinn's post that I quoted but I figured I'd better say something or I'd never get anything in at all.

Slow down on posting a bit! Now Sally is rather confusing but I'm guessing she's an innocent trying to be silly and garner reactions...though likely unfruitful

[Kuruharan]

Kuru, as a veteran, should know that if I were a wolf I would never allow such a thing as what Green said.

As a veteran, I know that people can say things off the cuff that are out of the control of the other wolves and land themselves and others in hot water.

And there are other reasons to be suspicious of you besides just that.

You've been acting a bit odd the whole time and your vote yesterday is questionable in a number of ways.

[Volo]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

She does, though in an effort to save herself.

I can't see any effort in that post what so ever. At that point the only use of such Wolf is to cause confusion. It may have been a wolf-on-wolf but just as equally it might have been a wolf-on-innocent (Except that I know that it was wolf-on-innocent.).

Originally Posted by Mac

I disagree and point out the convenience of this statement.

I'm not saying that they look Innocent because they voted for Lily. Sure thing Wolves vote Wolves, but I just suspected the other players more.

Originally Posted by Fea

Just to put it out there, I'm totally against multiple lynchings.

I nearly totally, because they are pretty impossible to organise in advance, because it needs the whole village's co-operation. Though if I there is a chance of lynching both morm and Sally, I'd take it.

Originally Posted by Brinn

At that point, I don't recall that Green was gathering that much suspicion. In a list of suspects, a wolf would easily place a fellow wolf somewhere in that list to mislead everyone else.

To me you are making no sense now. I with such a serious suspicion I'd dig out a fellow Wolf and lynch her instead of an (would-be-)Innocent Sally (or morm, but Sally was more lynchable.). At the end of the Day changing the tide to get Sally lynched would probably been possible.


Farael looks much more Innocent to me now that I've gone through his posts. He has talked general sense as well as accusing in a way that doesn't look Wolf-like in the least - I'm referring to his suspicion about Lommy. It generates genuinly and seems to fall back genuinly.

About Menel I can't form a clear idea. He at the same time stays with the flow and tosses in wild conspiracy theories. I don't like either of these a lot. He does manage to make his words look more Innocent than Wolf.


Innocent:
Lommy
Farael
Aganzir

Innocentish:
Might
Fea
Kuru

Unsure:
Menel
Mac
Brinn
Kath
Shasta

Wolf:
Sally
morm

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Volo

About Menel I can't form a clear idea. He at the same time stays with the flow and tosses in wild conspiracy theories. I don't like either of these a lot. He does manage to make his words look more Innocent than Wolf.

This is great! As I think Volo is a wolf this helps clarify that Menel is too. It's the approach I've spoken about where Volo gets done giving his list of suspects and finds fault in many...mostly innocents...but has to include at least one wolf in his talk but he finds him suspicious but probably innocent...classic werewolf tactic and it's a mess up in my mind.

[Macalaure]

I'm back, but I have to vote in a little more than an hour. I'll try to make the best of it.

[Kath]

I'll warn you now that I'm going to have to vote early again. Why is it that the second a game of werewolf starts I suddenly have a hundred more things to do?

My suspicion of Menel is rising by the second. His sudden switch from morm when popular opinion started to change a bit and no explanation. He says it's forthcoming because he hasn't analysed his posts yet, but there must be a reason for this change in opinion.

The other sudden change has come from Sally, and that's also pretty alarming. I can't decide whether it's wolvish or not though. If we had a Cobbler I would say that was what she was. I might keep judgement back on her for now, especially since Menel looks a chunk more suspicious right now.

And I want to say again, no double lynching! Lommy I'm looking right at you here. We have the numbers at the moment. The wolves can only kill one a Night. If we start killing two a Day we're far more likely to help them than help us.

[Meneltarmacil]

Okay, my analysis of momegil:

Post 22: Tosses out random accusations against Volo, Might, Mac, Kath, and Fea. Especially suspicious of Volo.

Post 60: Criticizes Lommy for wanting to keep helpful, interesting people alive. Calls for the lynching of Fea on Day 1 because "she generally only causes problems the later it goes."

Post 74: Criticizes Kuruharan for not realizing Nerwen was joking.

Post 95: Votes for Valier, saying she's too interested in keeping herself aliv to be innocent. Uneasy about Lommy for contradicting herself. Defends his comment about lynching Fea, saying it's "on principle." Says Rikae and Mac are innocent.

Post 119: Agrees with Volo about Valier looking "desperate."

Post 125: Criticizes me after I voted for him. His first point about me misunderstanding his Valier vote is reasonable, but the other points seem suspicious. Mainly, his criticism of my sarcastic joke looks like he's trying to read too much into me, and the last part about "What if I'm innocent?" suggests he wants me to make a comment similar to those that got my ancestors lynched.

Post 128: Criticizes Lommy for comments regarding her vote.

Post 133: Continues to attack Lommy for the same reason as before. Agrees with Kuruharan about looking at her carefully.

Day 1 impression: I don't like this. He starts the Day with an ill-founded suspicion of Volo that intensifies as the day goes on. He votes for an innocent because her posts seem to be directed at keeping her alive (what's wrong with wanting to stay alive?), actually agrees with Volo the guy who appeared to be Mr. Suspicious, about her, and then goes after me with two of his three statements very suspicious-looking. Not good at all. His position on Lommy is understandable, but considering that he builds up suspicion about her before the comment that really got him going, he could have been looking for an excuse.

Post 145: States that Lommy is a wolf and that she killed Valier to frame him. Also mentions that he could have pulled off a bluff like that. Mentions that the voting will come down to either him or Lommy. Suggests that the wolves probably didn't talk much about Valier on Day 1.

Post 175: Continues to lay suspicion on Lommy, claiming that she "came on to the scene seemingly screaming that Morm must be guilty!" Looking at what Lommy actually said, this seems like exaggeration to me. Thinks Farael looks good for not suspecting him. Backs off a little on Lommy after Farael criticizes him. Lists people who didn't vote for Nerwen, then says that out of these, Sally, Fea, and I are most likely to be wolves. Suspects Legate for not voting.

Post 215: Still suspects Fea, but not as much as before. Repeats his claim that Lommy is trying to frame him. "Goes with his gut," and votes for Volo.

Day 2 impression: I still don't like it. He really seems worried that few people beileve him about Lommy, and he continues to suspect Fea and Volo for little reason. I'm thinking that he may have been bluffing in an attempt to get rid of Lommy, but is now worried because it's not working the way he planned. As for Volo and Fea, he's been claiming suspicion of Volo and a desire to lynch Fea since Day 1, and giving only instinct (Volo) and "principle" (Fea) as reasons. Looking worse and worse now.

Post 308: Says that Brinn makes sense to him and agrees with her on Volo and me. Still maintains suspicion of Lommy. Suspects Kuru for going after him based on Green's defense of him.

Post 309: Accuses me of being lazy, denies ever agreeing with Green. Asks me to tell him when he agreed withGreen despite the fact that I've already mentioned specific points.

Post 311: Doesn't want a double lynch, but uses the opportunity to reiterate his suspicion of me and Volo.

Post 314: After I answer his request for quotes, he calls my reasoning "specious," but does acknowledge that he and Green had "similar suspects for similar reasons." However, earlier he claimed that he and [B]Green never agreed on anything!

Post 316: Says that Green mentioned suspicion of Lommy and Volo but never brought any hard evidence against them. Suspects a wolf-on-wolf, and accuses Volo again. Fails to mention that he's been doing the same thing to Volo, as the only "evidence" he's given against Volo has been gut reactions and bad feelings.

Post 318: Observes that Legate was supicious of him, then uses this to claim the wolves are setting him up. Accuses Kuru and me of being wolves and working out a plan to bring him down.

Post 321: Accuses me of flip-flopping. True, my suspicions were not as sure as they had been, which is why I decided to go back and read all his posts.

Post 347: Says Green agreed with him in order to help get him lynched.

Post 348: Agrees with Brinn that my flip-flopping makes me look wolfish.

Post 352: Says that Volo's statement that I'm probably innocent makes us both look like wolves.

Okay, I think this helps clarifies things. Mormegil is a wolf. He suspected both Fea and Volo without any evidence against either, probably tried to make Lommy look like a wolf without success, and then went to accusing me because I attacked him, while bringing his unfounded ("gut feelings" are not hard evidence) accusations of Volo with him (oddly enough, he sees Green making accusations against Volo with no evidence, yet he sees none of that in himself. The only evidence he gives against Volo comes extremely late, and only shows that Volo doesn't think I'm a wolf. He also tried to hide behind Brinniel, probably a misguided innocent, and come up with conspiracy theories about how the wolves have been trying to frame him the whole time. Plus, his denial that he ever agreed with Green despite my mention of specific points on which they agreed is telling.

I think I've made things pretty clear.

++mormegil

EDIT: cross-posted with a few people, notably Kuruharan