Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[Shastanis Althreduin]

That must mean Menel was the Seer....

I suppose now one must wonder just why he was so adamantly against Rikae.

Of course, he was against Mac as well, but not as much, I think...

[Gwathagor]

I suppose it's possible that Menel had dreamed about Rikae? Should we assume that he was right about all those he accused?

[Rikae]

Menel the seer? The only sense I can make of that is that he must have put his hopes in throwing the wolves off his track by doing nothing but accusing an ordo, so he could have as many dreams as possible before revealing. Considering that there was no Ranger, that makes sense - but apparently the wolves thought killing him was a good opportunity to frame me.

[sarcasm]Oh, my! How could we have possibly lynched an innocent Macalaure?

Well, I think that there must have been a wolf (or two) among the Macalaure-voters - after all, the wolves knew he was innocent, and so they voted for him! Or maybe they just wanted to get Mac out of the way -- and, after all, they had voiced suspicions of him earlier, so they could vote for him without flip-flopping at the last minute! Yes, this is a watertight argument -- we should focus solely on the Macalaure-voters(Legate, Greenie and Nerwen) today. Sure, there are 9 people here, but as Nerwen says "we can only lynch one at a time"!
[/sarcasm]

Actually, though, that thing Nerwen said struck me, on second glance, as what possibly be a slip. We can only lynch one at a time, eh, Nerwen?
Actually, I do find the Macalaure voters wolfish, not because they lynched an ordo, but because they created suspicion out of thin air. I analyzed it yesterday, just go back and look -- the reasons behind lynching Macalaure were utter... mist.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Menel the seer? The only sense I can make of that is that he must have put his hopes in throwing the wolves off his track by doing nothing but accusing an ordo, so he could have as many dreams as possible before revealing. Considering that there was no Ranger, that makes sense - but apparently the wolves thought killing him was a good opportunity to frame me.

Rikae, surely you think he would dare to accuse an ordo? That would be quite careless from him. I am not sure whether he would go for "collateral damage". There was still chance for the Wolves to pick him just by random (and who knows if it did not happen). Besides, he suspected you for two consequent Days and I think it likely therefore that he would have dreamt of you, maybe even on the first Day, and if he did, he must have known your role. It is true he suspected Mac for two consequent Days as well, but he voted you on Day 2, and although he did not vote on Day 1, he said that if he did, he would have voted you as well.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Rikae, surely you think he would dare to accuse an ordo?

Either that, or he accused someone he hadn't dreamt of! But I expect that he considered my death less harmful to the village than his (which it would be.)

Originally Posted by Legate

There was still chance for the Wolves to pick him just by random (and who knows if it did not happen).

Well, that's what I'm thinking - they would have been less likely to if he appeared not only useful to them, but decidedly un-seerish. I think Menel is a wiser player than he's usually given credit for, and he would know better than to make himself obviously seerish to the wolves when there was no ranger about.
Another thing is - he did suspect Mac for two consecutive days, and Mac was the person it probably made most sense for him to dream of on Night 2, being at the center of Day 1's controversy.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

That must mean Menel was the Seer....

I suppose now one must wonder just why he was so adamantly against Rikae.

Indeed, it's quite obvious he was the Seer. And yes, that's a question one has to ask.

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I suppose it's possible that Menel had dreamed about Rikae? Should we assume that he was right about all those he accused?

Well, surely not about all those he accused as YesterDay, he went after Mac and Rikae quite continuously, but now we know Mac was innocent. However, I find it quite improbable that his going after Rikae would be totally baseless. At least personally I believe that if he had dreamt of any Wolf, he would have voted him, and since he did not vote for anyone but Rikae, I am quite inclined to believe that he dreamt of her and found her a Wolf.

I will go quickly through his posts, I now have the chance to compare them in the new light with the analysis I was preparing yesterDay; it may come handy as some quick reference. Although Menel can't be of any active help anymore, I think we should try to find if we don't find any hints from him about whom he could have dreamed. He had two Nights to dream (before Day 1 and before Day 2) before he was killed. Also, there would be a good question as to why he was killed - did the Wolves reveal him, or was it just pure luck and they were following some other scheme? I think such things may be of a lot help.

Will be back soon.

edit: x-ed with Rikae

[McCaber]

Our seer did not survive the night? Truly this is the Dawnless Day.

Mayhap the late Menel struck too close with some of his accusations. He hounded Rikae pretty bad, but he also attacked Mac and Sally.

Rikae is indeed the obvious choice, but perhaps Sally needs looking at, as well.

EDIT: crossed with Rikae and Legate

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

So, looking through Menel's posts. Actually, there were not many people he spoke of. From people he accused, there were only Mac (for both Days), Rikae (also), then Sally (only on Day 2) and also Shasta on the first Day. These are the only four people he raises concern against. So, if he left any Seerish hints about any Wolves he revealed, they are among these four. Mac is of course innocent, that leaves Rikae, Sally and Shasta.

About Rikae he speaks in most of his posts on both Days, and votes her twice. As I already said, I think he dreamt of her, and if he did, then she's a Wolf.

About Shasta, he posts things like:

Originally Posted by Menel

Shasta, I'm kind of worried about you here. As far as I can tell, all your posts lately have been in-character banter, with little, if any, substance.

Originally Posted by Menel

Shasta is still a bit of a concern, due to the reasons I mentioned earlier, plus his suspicions of people because of their in-character actions don't strike me well either.

And then nothing on Day 2. Why this ceased is of question: but if he dreamt about Rikae on Night 1, he could have dreamt of Shasta (based on this concern he speaks of) on Night 2 and found him innocent.

About Sally, on Day 2 only:

Originally Posted by Menel

The situation I'm seeing here is this:
We've got a Rikae-Macalaure-Sally team of wolves going on here,.
(...) Sally has been suggested before as a possible third wolf, and I'm inclined to agree based on the voting patterns of Rikae and Mac, something that has been pointed out.
I'm convinced that Rikae is a wolf, and Macalaure is a close second. Sally is a distinct possibility, but I suspect the other two more.

Originally Posted by Menel

As to why you [Mac&Rikae] didn't vote for Sally, it's simple: She's the third Wolf.

I don't think there is much to be based on this. If anything, he might have dreamed about Sally on Night 3, but as he was killed the same Night, we cannot make any conclusions based on that.

edit: x-ed since my last post

[Rikae]

Going over Menel's posts again, I have to think that Nogrod is probably right, and that he did dream of him on night one. I remember seeing his "it's a bad idea to lynch Nogrod" comment and thinking it was starnge, but I assumed it was a misunderstanding of the bantering accusations made toward Nogrod. Still, if he knew Nogrod was innocent, this might have made him more quick to worry about those "accusations."

As for night two, he did drop his suspicions toward Shasta, which suggests that he might have dreamt of him and found him innocent. Of course, I'm not sure why Shasta would be a logical dream choice - it seems to me that, considering how the votes went, he would have dreamt of Macalaure, Sally, Gwath or me.
Could he have dreamt of Macalaure and found him innocent? It seems strange that he would have encouraged suspicion toward both of us in that case, even though he didn't give his final vote to Macalaure, he didn't prevent his lynching, either. Then again, he voted for me knowing that I wasn't likely to be lynched either (and said he would have voted for me, but didn't, the day before.) Perhaps it suggests there was some sort of collateral-damage thinking on Menel's part -- he may have really thought me wolvish, though.
Could he have dreamt of Nerwen and found her innocent? He says at one point that Mac and I both suspecting her (and Agan) is suspicious.

EDIT: Bolding

[Nogrod]

I love you Rikae!

Sorry (Mac also ), but I just love the way you make the brave effort! *kudos*

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, not quite sure, Nog. As you can see from my post, it is possible that he dreamt of Rikae on Night 1 and Shasta on Night 2, and if Shasta is innocent and Menel revealed that, it would explain why he suddenly ceased to suspect him. Your explanation of things also sounds possible, but surely not 100% certain. And I am not aware whether he referred to you that often

You're right. But then again if he dreamt of Rikae on Night1 already why didn't he make more of a case of it? I mean from the very beginning of Day2 he was all on Rikae, but on Day1 there were all kinds of reservations there.

Also I think that if you look at his suspicions on Shasta they were quite ad hoc, rising from certain posts (so no Night1 dream?). And had he been dreaming of Shasta on Night2 and found him innocent he surely would have mentioned him on Day2 at some point as he had suspected him slightly on Day1, just to correct his mistake. Like Rikae said, he's good enough player to realise that's what he needs to do.

So it's not 100%... and in the end it doesn't matter as if the wolves think it plausible enough for many enough people here they will kill me the next Night anyway. There's no ranger to protect an almost-known innocent.

Just noticed this:

Originally Posted by the Wolf

By the way, Nogrod should be lynched just for being so dreadfully chauvinistic!

Sorry, but I'm in an RPG here named "Treachery of Men" and that allusion kind of came to me and I couldn't resist - as you in the end quite coolly orchestrated the lynching of your loved one...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I love you Rikae!
Sorry (Mac also ), but I just love the way you make the brave effort! *kudos*

I've got to make an effort to help the village. I was right about Mac, and might be of some use yet.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just noticed this: Sorry, but I'm in an RPG here named "Treachery of Men" and that allusion kind of came to me and I couldn't resist - as you in the end quite coolly orchestrated the lynching of your loved one...

Call my behavior yesterday what you like, but I don't think you can call it "cool" -- and who argued all night against lynching Mac? I still can't see why you found him so suspicious (but then, you seem to pretty much always think that of him.)

By the way, I know we have a seer to look at, but does anyone care to analyze people's interactions with Mac also, as he's now a known innocent? It might be useful.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Rikae votes at the exact deadline... for Nerwen (zero votes at that time) saying she couldn't vote for Mac or Sally "in good conscience". That was farewell my darling Mac! He was ready to be disposed of then...

Yup, that's true. "Collateral damage", indeed!

Originally Posted by Shasta

I'll go look on this later, as I'm just now running off to rehearsal, but I'm wondering if Menel might have dreamt Sally night 2?

Well, personally I don't think it probable, though it's just my own opinion. You can find the quotes I posted up there, he spoke about Sally only in two posts of his. It's true he did not mention her before Day 2, but on the other hand, he does not seem much certain to me. If anything, I could imagine him dreaming of her on Night 3 - which would be a logical conclusion, and theoretically, if Sally is a Wolf, this might have been a reason, or played a role in, him being killed that Night.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You're right. But then again if he dreamt of Rikae on Night1 already why didn't he make more of a case of it? I mean from the very beginning of Day2 he was all on Rikae, but on Day1 there were all kinds of reservations there.

Well, he said he would have voted for her on Day 1. And I don't think there were many reservations. He was maybe more active on Day 2, but that he was overall, I think (also given by Rikae herself, as he kept responding to her).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also I think that if you look at his suspicions on Shasta they were quite ad hoc, rising from certain posts (so no Night1 dream?). And had he been dreaming of Shasta on Night2 and found him innocent he surely would have mentioned him on Day2 at some point as he had suspected him slightly on Day1, just to correct his mistake. Like Rikae said, he's good enough player to realise that's what he needs to do.

Yes, maybe you are right that he would have changed his opinion had he found him innocent. On the other hand, what if he did not just for the reason that he would not profile himself as Seer, with sudden change of opinions? Silence might have been sufficient.

Well, I am probably going to leave now and go to sleep - I felt surprisingly fresh and I did not even realise what the time is; and suddenly it fell on me.

edit: x-ed with Rikae twice

[Nogrod]

It's really getting late but I think I need to make this point before I go.

Now in the end of the Day2 the situation was a follows.

-11 minutes
Rikae2, Sally1

-4 minutes
Rikae2, Mac2, Sally1

Of those not voted yet at that time we knew that Rikae, Mac and myself were around - no one else had given any sign of being there.

So where were you Rikae? If you were an ordo actually convinced that Mac was an ordo too you would have made an effort - to suggest Mac a deal like you had the earlier Day or to ask my views.

You could have saved Mac easily with suggesting a vote on Sally. I don't blame you for not voting her as her quite emotional posts at the end of the Day had gotten all of us quite startled. But if you "knew" Mac was innocent why didn't you post in to ask for ideas? The three of us could have lynched anyone at that point.

Or was Sally in the end your co-wolf and thence you did not vote for her?

That would indeed explain a bit more why Menel was killed. In the end of Day2 he said quite comfortably that Mac, Rikae and Sally were the three wolves. He was wrong with Mac but hitting the nail in the head two times after two dreams was enough for the wolves?

I still believe that was not the case and that Menel came up with Sally during the gameplay on Day2. Those of you who have played with him before know his style of being quite uncomptromising to put it mildly. He didn't come up with things to say about Sally until about the half-day, saying:

Sally has been suggested before as a possible third wolf, and I'm inclined to agree based on the voting patterns of Rikae and Mac, something that has been pointed out.

Comparing this to how he went after Rikae there's a marked difference...

But the wolves couldn't ignore that - so Menel was a dead man.

And even if Sally is an ordo (which she can be) - Menel was a dead man still because of his attack on Rikae that was "seery" enough.


In any case at certain point the wolves can be quite cool at those in the end discussions - even able to just look on what happens with a grin only ready to intervene if something drastic is going to happen. Rikae's actions in the end of Day2 look very wolvish indeed even without Menel's stance on her.

Originally Posted by Rikae

By the way, I know we have a seer to look at, but does anyone care to analyze people's interactions with Mac also, as he's now a known innocent? It might be useful.

And you dare to say that I'm the one suggesting thinking things in a way convenient to myself?

But honestly, what could we learn from there? To other innocents he was a non-known (so possibly a wolf or an ordo) and to wolves a possible (good) lynchée. What can you say of it? I know that if we lynch a wolf there's lots to read there about the interaction as we can see how the wolve's fellows possibly treated her/him, but?

By no means do look. All things count. One never knows what one can find but certainly this looks more like a distraction than anything else. Sorry Rikae.

Edit: X'd with Legate

[Nogrod]

Oh my!

And even if this sounds like a hindsight I must say I guessed that.

So he dreamt of me on Night1 and of Rikae on Night2. Please follow why I think that is.

On Day1 he thought I should not be lynched - even if I wasn't actually in any danger of being lynched at that time. And later the Day he referred to me alongside him and seemed to rely on my judgements (as he knew I am innocent) taking them as parts of his arguments. About others he said Rikae and Mac were his suspects but with both of those he made still some reservations. And there was a slight suspicious comment about Shasta to be sure but he never came back to it.

Starting Day2 we have this (after the apology for not voting):

Originally Posted by Menel

In any case, know that I would have voted for Rikae.

I'm even more suspicious of her now than before, come to think of it.

And after that Menel seemed quite assured of his crusade against Rikae. So he had dreamt of her that Night.

This last one kind of nails it for Rikae:

Originally Posted by Menel's vote-post

(OOC: I'm sorry if I'm really being too hard on you, Rikae, regardless of the fur and fangs.)

That's too tough language to an ordo, even to a Menel-ordo.

I know I'm dead the next Night after we lynch Rikae as a wolf toDay. And sadly my day (RL) is the worst possible for playing werewolf. I have an early morning call and even if the Day is stretched because of the late start I may have trouble getting too much time online toDay.

EDIT: X'd from Rikae's first post onwards...

[Rikae]

You say the seer dreamt of you and found you innocent, Nogrod? That's convenient for you.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by RikaeWolf

Yes, this is a watertight argument -- we should focus solely on the Macalaure-voters(Legate, Greenie and Nerwen) today.

Originally Posted by the evil one amongst us

I do find the Macalaure voters wolfish, not because they lynched an ordo, but because they created suspicion out of thin air. I analyzed it yesterday, just go back and look -- the reasons behind lynching Macalaure were utter... mist.

I mean just go and look. I know I was wrong myself as I thought Mac the most suspicious yesterDay. Lommy talking about "dreams" and accusing Mac pretty determinedly... If Mac was a wolf the wolves had no chance but to kill her - no matter how bad it would look on Mac. The seer is the number one target whatever the cost. And Mac's posts early on Day2 looked sooo wolvish! Just look at them from this angle!



And look at Rikae's acts at the last minutes! See the treachery of women! See the treachery of ther werewolves!

Rikae votes at the exact deadline... for Nerwen (zero votes at that time) saying she couldn't vote for Mac or Sally "in good conscience". That was farewell my darling Mac! He was ready to be disposed of then...

At that point Mac could not have saved himself anymore. If Rikae would have voted for Sally he could have done that but for some reason Rikae neither voted for Sally or voted but at the last possible minute - so Mac had no chance to save himself by looking who he would have to vote. I'm pretty sure his vote coming one minute late was caused by Rikae's deliberate delay on her vote (there was 13 minutes between her vote and her earlier post) - remember it looked like there were only me, Rikae and Mac around: LG and McCaber just appeared out from thin air.

If we had retractables I would vote immediately but as I know never say never is more reasonable way of looking at things I'll still hold my vote waiting for a miracle. But it will require a miracle if I'm not suggesting we should lynch Rikae toDay.

EDIT: X'd since Rikae

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Rikae votes at the exact deadline... for Nerwen (zero votes at that time) saying she couldn't vote for Mac or Sally "in good conscience". That was farewell my darling Mac! He was ready to be disposed of then...

I voted at the last minute because I was afraid someone would vote for me and I would need to save myself.
Sure, that may be selfish, but that's how it is.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Either that, or he accused someone he hadn't dreamt of! But I expect that he considered my death less harmful to the village than his (which it would be.)

Not sure I buy this one. With so low numbers in the village, if I really exaggerate, it almost does not matter whether one is a Seer or an Ordo, and "collateral damage" of one Ordo is still quite a setback for the village.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Well, that's what I'm thinking - they would have been less likely to if he appeared not only useful to them, but decidedly un-seerish. I think Menel is a wiser player than he's usually given credit for, and he would know better than to make himself obviously seerish to the wolves when there was no ranger about.

Well yes, I am not underestimating him either, but I still find it quite risky. I mean - imagine him dreaming of all three wolves, but the very Night he reveals the third one he, by some bad luck, dies. It's very bold, but also very risky. No disrespect to Menel in the aspect of bravery, but it will be a very bold move.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Another thing is - he did suspect Mac for two consecutive days, and Mac was the person it probably made most sense for him to dream of on Night 2, being at the center of Day 1's controversy.

Well yes, that's true, and it remains of question why he did not dream of him - unless he indeed did not dream of him and continue to suspect him only to mislead the wolves, though I find it overcombinated. It may be he simply did not have time to dream of all he suspected.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So he dreamt of me on Night1 and of Rikae on Night2.

Well, not quite sure, Nog. As you can see from my post, it is possible that he dreamt of Rikae on Night 1 and Shasta on Night 2, and if Shasta is innocent and Menel revealed that, it would explain why he suddenly ceased to suspect him. Your explanation of things also sounds possible, but surely not 100% certain. And I am not aware whether he referred to you that often; in fact, he once referred to LG and mistook her with you. Maybe, but not necessarily sure.

edit: x-posted since my last post. Keep x-posting. Johnny x-poster.

[Rikae]

By the way, Nogrod should be lynched just for being so dreadfully chauvinistic!

EDIT: X'd with Legate

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'll go look on this later, as I'm just now running off to rehearsal, but I'm wondering if Menel might have dreamt Sally night 2?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I'll go look on this later, as I'm just now running off to rehearsal, but I'm wondering if Menel might have dreamt Sally night 2?

Hmm... I thought it was strange how he came up with the idea of Sally, Mac and I being wolves together yesterday, explaining Mac's and my votes as attempts to protect Sally when there would have been several other options for that. If he dreamt of her and found her a wolf, that might explain it.

I also think he might have dreamt of Gwath that night. He's fixed on the idea that wolves were responsible for Agan's lynching, but he absolves Gwath very easily (when, as I pointed out yesterday, Gwath had a vote placement that was both safe, and influential - as well as basically unexplained.) Menel dismisses the idea of Gwath being a wolf with:

Originally Posted by Menel

Macalaure's lynching is coming closer, and then Gwathagor votes for the suspicious-but-most-likely-innocent Agan. That's fine; Gwath is rather new here and it's an honest mistake.

and treats him as if he were a known innocent thereafter, so perhaps he dreamt of him and, finding him innocent, assumed Mac and/or I must be a wolf.