Werewolf XLII, Mist in the Barrow Downs

[Rikae]

Going over Menel's posts again, I have to think that Nogrod is probably right, and that he did dream of him on night one. I remember seeing his "it's a bad idea to lynch Nogrod" comment and thinking it was starnge, but I assumed it was a misunderstanding of the bantering accusations made toward Nogrod. Still, if he knew Nogrod was innocent, this might have made him more quick to worry about those "accusations."

As for night two, he did drop his suspicions toward Shasta, which suggests that he might have dreamt of him and found him innocent. Of course, I'm not sure why Shasta would be a logical dream choice - it seems to me that, considering how the votes went, he would have dreamt of Macalaure, Sally, Gwath or me.
Could he have dreamt of Macalaure and found him innocent? It seems strange that he would have encouraged suspicion toward both of us in that case, even though he didn't give his final vote to Macalaure, he didn't prevent his lynching, either. Then again, he voted for me knowing that I wasn't likely to be lynched either (and said he would have voted for me, but didn't, the day before.) Perhaps it suggests there was some sort of collateral-damage thinking on Menel's part -- he may have really thought me wolvish, though.
Could he have dreamt of Nerwen and found her innocent? He says at one point that Mac and I both suspecting her (and Agan) is suspicious.

EDIT: Bolding

[Nogrod]

I love you Rikae!

Sorry (Mac also ), but I just love the way you make the brave effort! *kudos*

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, not quite sure, Nog. As you can see from my post, it is possible that he dreamt of Rikae on Night 1 and Shasta on Night 2, and if Shasta is innocent and Menel revealed that, it would explain why he suddenly ceased to suspect him. Your explanation of things also sounds possible, but surely not 100% certain. And I am not aware whether he referred to you that often

You're right. But then again if he dreamt of Rikae on Night1 already why didn't he make more of a case of it? I mean from the very beginning of Day2 he was all on Rikae, but on Day1 there were all kinds of reservations there.

Also I think that if you look at his suspicions on Shasta they were quite ad hoc, rising from certain posts (so no Night1 dream?). And had he been dreaming of Shasta on Night2 and found him innocent he surely would have mentioned him on Day2 at some point as he had suspected him slightly on Day1, just to correct his mistake. Like Rikae said, he's good enough player to realise that's what he needs to do.

So it's not 100%... and in the end it doesn't matter as if the wolves think it plausible enough for many enough people here they will kill me the next Night anyway. There's no ranger to protect an almost-known innocent.

Just noticed this:

Originally Posted by the Wolf

By the way, Nogrod should be lynched just for being so dreadfully chauvinistic!

Sorry, but I'm in an RPG here named "Treachery of Men" and that allusion kind of came to me and I couldn't resist - as you in the end quite coolly orchestrated the lynching of your loved one...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I love you Rikae!
Sorry (Mac also ), but I just love the way you make the brave effort! *kudos*

I've got to make an effort to help the village. I was right about Mac, and might be of some use yet.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just noticed this: Sorry, but I'm in an RPG here named "Treachery of Men" and that allusion kind of came to me and I couldn't resist - as you in the end quite coolly orchestrated the lynching of your loved one...

Call my behavior yesterday what you like, but I don't think you can call it "cool" -- and who argued all night against lynching Mac? I still can't see why you found him so suspicious (but then, you seem to pretty much always think that of him.)

By the way, I know we have a seer to look at, but does anyone care to analyze people's interactions with Mac also, as he's now a known innocent? It might be useful.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Rikae votes at the exact deadline... for Nerwen (zero votes at that time) saying she couldn't vote for Mac or Sally "in good conscience". That was farewell my darling Mac! He was ready to be disposed of then...

Yup, that's true. "Collateral damage", indeed!

Originally Posted by Shasta

I'll go look on this later, as I'm just now running off to rehearsal, but I'm wondering if Menel might have dreamt Sally night 2?

Well, personally I don't think it probable, though it's just my own opinion. You can find the quotes I posted up there, he spoke about Sally only in two posts of his. It's true he did not mention her before Day 2, but on the other hand, he does not seem much certain to me. If anything, I could imagine him dreaming of her on Night 3 - which would be a logical conclusion, and theoretically, if Sally is a Wolf, this might have been a reason, or played a role in, him being killed that Night.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You're right. But then again if he dreamt of Rikae on Night1 already why didn't he make more of a case of it? I mean from the very beginning of Day2 he was all on Rikae, but on Day1 there were all kinds of reservations there.

Well, he said he would have voted for her on Day 1. And I don't think there were many reservations. He was maybe more active on Day 2, but that he was overall, I think (also given by Rikae herself, as he kept responding to her).

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Also I think that if you look at his suspicions on Shasta they were quite ad hoc, rising from certain posts (so no Night1 dream?). And had he been dreaming of Shasta on Night2 and found him innocent he surely would have mentioned him on Day2 at some point as he had suspected him slightly on Day1, just to correct his mistake. Like Rikae said, he's good enough player to realise that's what he needs to do.

Yes, maybe you are right that he would have changed his opinion had he found him innocent. On the other hand, what if he did not just for the reason that he would not profile himself as Seer, with sudden change of opinions? Silence might have been sufficient.

Well, I am probably going to leave now and go to sleep - I felt surprisingly fresh and I did not even realise what the time is; and suddenly it fell on me.

edit: x-ed with Rikae twice

[Rikae]

Here Legate goes again, narrowing the field. I was suspicious yesterday, with his singular focus on Mac and I, that he intended to lynch one yesterday and the other toDay, and the choice of kill last Night certainly fits that profile. Just look at how he butters Nogrod up - and, just like he behaved (when it wasn't the case) as if Macalaure was the only logical lynch yesterDay, he words everything as if there were no question, toDay, who Menel dreamt of and when.
It's funny how Nerwen said yesterDay that she needed "a lot more" to go on before she'd consider lynching Legate - the fact is, he is not the sort to slip up in any obvious way. The sneaky, subtle manipulation of perspectives is his style of evil, and it's all over him here.

I can see the possibility of a Sally/Nerwen/Legate wolf trio now ... I'm going to have a closer look at these thrree. Sally does make sense as Menel's night 2 dream, considering his day 2 conspiracy theory, and Nogrod has me fairly convinced he was dreamt of on day one (even though it works in his favor.) I'll be back with more, but maybe not right away -- I've got quite a lot to do this evening in RL.

EDIT: x'd with Nogrod and fixed a typo

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Rikae

I can see the possibility of a Sally/Nerwen/Legate wolf trio now ...

I am beginning to lean this way myself.

[Farael]

The Modly Disclaimer
There has been a bit of a misunderstanding between Roa and I. I asked her to check half hour after the deadline to see if I had posted, and if not start/end the day herself and then she told me to let her know if I knew I'd be skipping a deadline. I assumed that was in addition to her checking, so that she could have a bit of warning and the day would start when scheduled.

What happened to me this morning was that I was bed-ridden from eight to ten due to severe back pain (and I mean "severe" as in "if I got up and tried to walk, I'd get dizzy") and then I had to rush to school. I thought by then Roa would've checked the thread and my day was rather busy up until now, so I really had no time to check the thread.

There are two alternatives as far as what we can do with this day. I would be able to end it 24 hours after it started today (1 30 PM my time tomorrow) but we cannot keep that as a deadline, as I'll sure won't be anywhere near a computer during my trip at 1 PM. If the wolves agree, we can have the day last for 24 hours and the following night last only until the regular deadline. To make it up for them, the wolves would be able to pm for the first three hours of the folowing day. I think that is a fair deal, and it doesnt give them the advantage of being able to communicate during voting time.

Of course, the wolves should PM me their thoughts, and any ordos who object should do the same.

Doctor says I should be fine by tomorrow and I feel a lot better already, there will hopefully be no more major problems with the deadlines.

[McCaber]

Tentative thoughts include a Rikae/Sally/Nerwen trio.

And Rikae is right. No one so far has done a real analysis of Mac. I shall return with thoughts from my point of view, but perhaps more than one would be useful.

[satansaloser2005]

Quick Summary de Sally. Sorry to be so brief, but I need to toddle off to church or I'll be late. These are just iniitial thoughts, so don't be surprised if I actually fully read the posts and change my mind on a couple things. But at least it'll give you all something to go on while I'm away.

Menel's Dream guess for Night one: Rikae. Result? Wolf. He cranks up the suspicion notch on her quite a bit, and doesn't back off her no matter what.

Menel's Dream guess for Night two: Shasta???? Result? Innocent. Big question mark on this one, but I'll give a better guess later. But he seems to disregard any possibility of a Shastawolf after this Night.

It's possible he dreamt me last night. Quite honestly, I wouldn't blame him, because I've been under some suspicion, so it would be beneficial for him to know where I stand rolewise.

My three initial wolf guesses? Nerwen, Rikae, and Legate/Cabbie. No worries, I'll try to explain later as promised. Happy discussion while I'm away.

P.S. I'm sorry you haven't been feeling well, Farael. Don't worry about the game, we understand that sometimes RL just plain gets in the way. No big deal. Make sure to feel better though, or we'll have your hide.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Just look at how he butters Nogrod up - and, just like he behaved (when it wasn't the case) as if Macalure was the only logical lynch yesterDay

I can't resist saying this... I do agree with you Rikae. I was having a good night's cigarette on the balcony and thought whether I should post once more to say that Legate's agreeable - yet on the crucial points a slightly disagreeing - style makes me a bit nervous about him.

But I wouldn't put it past you guys that Rikae posts nicely a light suspicion thing on Legate in the end of the Day2 when there was a real chance that Rikae would be lynched herself. What would look better on Legate the next Day but to have been "analysed" bad by a wolf?

Also toDay that strategy is worthwhile. If Rikae makes a case on a fellow Legate and is lynched then Legate looks good. And if for some miraculous reason Rikae is not lynched but Legate is, then Rikae looks better. And as we can't afford too many mislynches anymore then any confusion is playing to the wolves' cause.

Originally Posted by Rikae

With you? When you suspected both of us?

But I also said it quite clearly that I was not too happy with lynching any one of you three and that I would like to see new candidates...

Originally Posted by me at -56 minutes

To me it depends on the choises we have toDay. But I'd love to see new ideas - or to get them myself.

Then I made a few points about Gwath and Sally and ended the post:

Originally Posted by me at -30 minutes

Oh my... so little time left. Ideas anyone?

Originally Posted by me at -21 minutes

Speak your minds people. We don't need any last minute frenzies.

And after f.ex. agreeing with you Rikae I said:

Originally Posted by me at -5 minutes

After we see who will in the end turn out and actually vote we'll be much more wiser as to who were hiding at the last moments.

But the fact is I'm not very happy with any of the candidates right now. Of those three I'd pick Mac though.

So you can't say I was trying to get you both killed!

Good night now...

AUCH!

Originally Posted by Gwath

I am beginning to lean this way myself.

Oh my... Please reconsider Gwath. You can't be serious about Rikae not being a wolf...

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But I wouldn't put it past you guys that Rikae posts nicely a light suspicion thing on Legate in the end of the Day2 when there was a real chance that Rikae would be lynched herself. What would look better on Legate the next Day but to have been "analysed" bad by a wolf?

Hey, at least I'm being listened to - and if you lynch Legate toMorrow, I've accomplished something.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So you can't say I was trying to get you both killed!

Of course not. But you could concievably have voted for either of us, or so I thought. Saying you want to see other candidates when you don't have any other suspects yourself, well, doesn't sound that serious.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You can't be serious about Rikae not being a wolf...

Why does this look familiar?

[Nogrod]

It's really getting late but I think I need to make this point before I go.

Now in the end of the Day2 the situation was a follows.

-11 minutes
Rikae2, Sally1

-4 minutes
Rikae2, Mac2, Sally1

Of those not voted yet at that time we knew that Rikae, Mac and myself were around - no one else had given any sign of being there.

So where were you Rikae? If you were an ordo actually convinced that Mac was an ordo too you would have made an effort - to suggest Mac a deal like you had the earlier Day or to ask my views.

You could have saved Mac easily with suggesting a vote on Sally. I don't blame you for not voting her as her quite emotional posts at the end of the Day had gotten all of us quite startled. But if you "knew" Mac was innocent why didn't you post in to ask for ideas? The three of us could have lynched anyone at that point.

Or was Sally in the end your co-wolf and thence you did not vote for her?

That would indeed explain a bit more why Menel was killed. In the end of Day2 he said quite comfortably that Mac, Rikae and Sally were the three wolves. He was wrong with Mac but hitting the nail in the head two times after two dreams was enough for the wolves?

I still believe that was not the case and that Menel came up with Sally during the gameplay on Day2. Those of you who have played with him before know his style of being quite uncomptromising to put it mildly. He didn't come up with things to say about Sally until about the half-day, saying:

Sally has been suggested before as a possible third wolf, and I'm inclined to agree based on the voting patterns of Rikae and Mac, something that has been pointed out.

Comparing this to how he went after Rikae there's a marked difference...

But the wolves couldn't ignore that - so Menel was a dead man.

And even if Sally is an ordo (which she can be) - Menel was a dead man still because of his attack on Rikae that was "seery" enough.


In any case at certain point the wolves can be quite cool at those in the end discussions - even able to just look on what happens with a grin only ready to intervene if something drastic is going to happen. Rikae's actions in the end of Day2 look very wolvish indeed even without Menel's stance on her.

Originally Posted by Rikae

By the way, I know we have a seer to look at, but does anyone care to analyze people's interactions with Mac also, as he's now a known innocent? It might be useful.

And you dare to say that I'm the one suggesting thinking things in a way convenient to myself?

But honestly, what could we learn from there? To other innocents he was a non-known (so possibly a wolf or an ordo) and to wolves a possible (good) lynchée. What can you say of it? I know that if we lynch a wolf there's lots to read there about the interaction as we can see how the wolve's fellows possibly treated her/him, but?

By no means do look. All things count. One never knows what one can find but certainly this looks more like a distraction than anything else. Sorry Rikae.

Edit: X'd with Legate

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So where were you Rikae? If you were an ordo actually convinced that Mac was an ordo too you would have made an effort - to suggest Mac a deal like you had the earlier Day or to ask my views.

It took me too long to make my vote, you're right, but it was in no way a deliberate plot. I almost voted earlier, but held back for fear of being lynched after I voted -- but I didn't intend it to be the last second.

If I had offered Mac a deal, it might have sealed my fate, and wouldn't have been enough anyway - three votes were needed, and anyone could come in at any time and lynch either of us.

[Rikae]

Oh yeah, and:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And you dare to say that I'm the one suggesting thinking things in a way convenient to myself?

I have Mac on the phone, and he was complaining that he didn't get a proper analysis after his death.
It hardly helps me, since I would have known he was innocent as a wolf even more than as an ordo -- and you'll note I didn't analyze him myself.

[Rikae]

Sorry to quadruple post, but:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

The three of us could have lynched anyone at that point.

With you? When you suspected both of us?