Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Diamond18]

Naturally, the EW is from Greenie's family thus the wanton killing of everyone from Volo's side of the gene pool. I say we lynch everyone who is a descendant of Greenie and Shasta!

Oh wait... they're my grandparents.

Scrap that. Obviously the EW is from Volo's family and wants to frame the Greenie/Shasta line!

Wow. So after spending three hours reading over the entire 5 page post-a-thon, this is the more brilliant stuff I can come up with. That's a dissolute wax addict for you.

I'll be posting more toDay. You may wish I wasn't, but hey.

Phantom, why didn't you vote yesterDay? You were the last to post before the deadline but never voted. That's just bizarre.

So there were several mini-rows yesterDay. The Roa/tp row, the Legate/Mac row, the Cailin/Nerwen row. As I recall. When reading over the thread I felt the Roa/tp row to be a lot of bangs and whimpers with not a lot of... anything. Seemd like classic Day1 "There's not much to go on" debating about the proper way to play the game. Legate/Mac was entertaining, but nothing overly suspicious pinged me about it.

I found myself coming down on the Cailin side of the Caillie/Nerwen row. Possibly because I like Cailin's list post and found it better reading than the umpteenth "No THIS is how we should all be playing" post. Sure, lists can misdirect, and may not tell you much about the village, but they tell you a lot about the person making the list. Whether they're lying, joking, or killing time, I don't think they're a horrid "waste of time." (Stats, on the other hand, make me snore. Sorry, bro.)

Of course, Nerwen proved innocent, so obviously Cailin is EEVVVIILL. Plus she's tenuously connected to the Greenie/Shasta brood which proves either one of my points completely.

Hey, don't laugh, if I was the EW (and btw, I have loads and loads of time on my hands, I'm eleven after all) I'd play around with the roles, just because all the serious players will be going, "No that's SILLY."

At any rate, I'll try to live up to your assessment of me, Cail, my sort of a distant aunt by marriage. Too many offenses to last past Day4. I loved it. Haha. (I think I've only ever been lynched once though, in all the many games I've played.)

[Diamond18]

Forty minutes past the deadline and I'm the first post? Hnuh?

I'll never beat the 5 page Day 1 stat on my own. I mean I could try but things would get really schizo. I'd have to start creating make believe players, Diamond01, Diamond02, and so on. (The EW is Diamond06, and the GW is Diamond07, btw.)

[THE Ka]

Volo, the guy who knows everything about staying alive, the gaffer (Father of Nogrod, morm, Nerwen and Lalaith); The seer mutilated and eyes pulled off on Night2.

... .

Originally Posted by Di

Forty minutes past the deadline and I'm the first post? Hnuh?

No worries, I've been silently reading everything and reverting back to my old observe habit. I think others still have to show up as of yet, or they are catching up as I was.

Originally Posted by Di

but they tell you a lot about the person making the list.

They also help to muck out widely held suspicions and give the atmosphere of different players' tensions on matters, or help with predictions on the way the tide will go. After having to read ten posts at a time, I think that in this respect they are useful.

tp not voting is interesting, but if I was runner up to being killed I don't think I would be so eager to do so much either. YesterDay was particularly random as first Days go, but I hope that does give us something to analyze considering how we're short a seer now (psst GW, find it in your heart to make another seer toNight, pretty please? We're 'kind of' dying here). After reflecting on the bandwagons of yesterDay, at least they are pretty defined near the end and should tell something at least.

Okay, that's all for now from me, obviously I have more reading to do. (There Di, someone else said something, but not much. ).

[the phantom]

Phantom, why didn't you vote yesterDay?

Where in the rules does it say you have to vote?

Originally Posted by ModGod

If someone doesn't post on two Days in a row there will be a modfire removing that player from the game in a shameful manner.

I see a posting requirement, but no voting requirement.

Anyway, last night didn't go too well. But seriously it could've been worse. WWs killing the Seer isn't nearly so bad in this stage of the game.

Day 2s are much better than Day 1s. We actually have kills and such to look back at!

Here are some quick thoughts on yesterday-

1) What's with the Lommy-Agan thing? Surely there's something to it?

2) Roa is innocent I believe. At least she was yesterday.

3) I'm a bit suspicious of Shasta.

4) Every time I reread things I completely flip positions on Legate.

5) Green looks pretty good.

6) I think Sally was probably innocent yesterday.

7) I'm not sure what to think of Dur and Ka exactly, but I kind of like them.

8) Some people need to talk more.

That's all I really have time for. I have to leave right away. I'll only be gone for two or three hours though. See ya.

[Brinniel]

My grandpappy and my sister in one night?! Someone is obviously out to get my family...

First off, bringing down the voting list to Day 2:

-------------------------

mormegil: ++Brinniel (Brinniel 1)
Sally: ++the phantom (Brinniel 1, tp 1)
Gwathagor: ++Sally (Brinniel 1, tp 1, Sally 1)
Kitanna: ++morm (Brinniel 1, tp 1, Sally 1, morm 1)
Nerwen: ++Cailin (Brinniel 1, tp 1, Sally 1, morm 1, Cailin 1)
Roa: ++the phantom (Brinniel 1, tp 2, Sally 1, morm 1, Cailin 1)
Celuien: ++Izzy (Brinniel 1, tp 2, Sally 1, morm 1, Cailin 1, Izzy 1)
Rikae: ++morm (Brinniel 1, tp 2, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1)
Izzy: ++Roa (Brinniel 1, tp 2, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1)
Shasta: ++the phantom (Brinniel 1, tp 3, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1)
Eonwe: ++the phantom (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1)
Cailin: ++Nerwen (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 1)
The Ka: ++Celuien (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 1, Celuien 1)
Greenie: ++Gwathagor (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 1, Celuien 1, Gwath 1)
McCaber: ++Nerwen (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 2, Celuien 1, Gwath 1)
Macalaure: ++Legate (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 2, Celuien 1, Gwath 1, Legate 1)
Lalaith: ++Nerwen (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 3, Celuien 1, Gwath 1, Legate 1)
Durelin: ++Nerwen (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 4, Celuien 1, Gwath 1, Legate 1)
Lommy: ++Aganzir (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 4, Celuien 1, Gwath 1, Legate 1, Aganzir 1)
Diamond: ++Nerwen (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 5, Celuien 1, Gwath 1, Legate 1, Aganzir 1)
Volo: ++Aganzir (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 5, Celuien 1, Gwath 1, Legate 1, Aganzir 2)
Brinniel: ++Aganzir (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 5, Celuien 1, Gwath 1, Legate 1, Aganzir 3)
Legate: ++Aganzir (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 5, Celuien 1, Gwath 1, Legate 1, Aganzir 4)
Aganzir: ++Nerwen (Brinniel 1, tp 4, Sally 1, morm 2, Cailin 1, Izzy 1, Roa 1, Nerwen 6, Celuien 1, Gwath 1, Legate 1, Aganzir 4)

Did not vote: Nilpaurion, Lhuna, Kath, the phantom

--------------------------

Heh, almost half of the village received at least one vote...

As stated yesterDay, I don't like the tp and particularly Nerwen bandwagons. I didn't notice that tp hadn't voted until Di pointed it out. I'm not sure what to think on the fact that he intentionally chose not to...

More thoughts about the voting yesterDay will come in another post..

It's certainly a shame to see Volo die...obviously the gaffer who thought he knew everything about staying alive really didn't as he didn't even make it past Night 2. It doesn't really help us that he was a seer; the only dream he had was last Night and now only the GW will know the result of that.

So why were Volo and Kitanna killed? My first thought is that it was simply because they weren't very suspicious.

Anyways, more thoughts to come later...

[Aganzir]

The only person Volo didn't say he was uncertain of was Legate, who also was his another voting candidate.

Originally Posted by Volo on Legate

He felt systematical, tight and nastier than usually in the beginning, and although Mac overdid his questioning a bit, Legate got unnecessarily glued to the question of tp's cobblerism. Then he changes back to good ol' kind Leggie when he answers me and changes the subject away from tp in the post before. He must have realized that there was something wrong with what he was doing

I guess we have no way to get to know for sure whom he dreamed of, but based on that I'm pretty confident it was Legate. Another option is that he didn't leave any hints, but even though the GW shares the information he had, I can't see any sense in that.

Kitanna looks more like a random kill that leaves few tracks.

**

I had a bad gut feeling (mind you, morm voted for her based on gut feeling and she found it ok) about Brinniel and found a quote of hers suspicious, and then all of a sudden I was the best lynching candidate she had. I'll try to elaborate more on her tomorrow, but there's really something that makes me uneasy.

Something's definitely wrong with Lommy. She looks like she had deliberately decided to suspect me from the very beginning (my first IC post doesn't quite sit right with you, huh?), and after that she keeps increasing her suspicion, but the way she at the same time agrees with me & says it's fine for her if I'm kept alive looks plain sinister. She looks like she were toying with me and I don't like it.
She should just know better.

The way phantom seemed/seems to be dominating the discussion makes me feel uneasy.

Legate & yesterday's voting. If that wasn't suspicious, nothing is.

Originally Posted by Legate

Tp, as for Agan being the EW... she well enough could. If it were to choose between her and some of the other two named, even she would do... but then... I really don't know. At least at the beginning I thought her innocentish. Lately probably other people's observations, or suspicions of her, influenced me as well in some way. But there are still other options which I had earlier... hm.

"I want to jump the bandwagon as there's even a chance she'd be lynched (and she suspects me) and now I must explain it to everybody so as not to look I was indeed just jumping in the bandwagon!"

**

I'll go to sleep now, back in the morning.

edit: xed with Brinn

[Durelin]

Well, looks like we can narrow down the EW/Wolves to good guessers, eh?

Originally Posted by Aganzir

The way phantom seemed/seems to be dominating the discussion makes me feel uneasy.

So stop mentioning ____ and making ____ feel he is at the center of attention.

But...I do agree with him on "what's up with the you and Lommy thing", though I'm not sure what to think. I had suspicion of you yesterDay, but looking back over some Lommy posts, I find it interesting that she does seem to use her knowing you as much to her advantage as possible. But Aganzir's votes for Nerwen wasn't necessary to save herself, and she had stated she did not want to vote for Nerwen. Of course, coming down to the wire, if she was not sure of the count...

Oh, before I forget - Brinn was quite right and I was quite silly yesterDay. When I came back about 40 minutes before the deadline I really...skimmed the posts posted while I was away. I totally missed your stuff about Aganzir. I kept thinking you had only posted twice, as you mentioned in your one post. Of course that was your third post...and I didn't read it all. Oh if Boro were here...

Yeah, I need to go back and read, cause it won't all be re-reading...

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Ka

tp not voting is interesting, but if I was runner up to being killed I don't think I would be so eager to do so much either.

Bingo. Since I was at risk, I was holding my vote till the very end.

And then the end arrived, and I was wondering if the late Agan bandwagon would charge all the way to the front to tie with Nerwen and I, and so I was deciding who I should vote for out of those two. Like I said I thought that there had to be something going on with with Lommy and Agan and was thinking that I might want to vote that way just to see if anything turned up. Ner went ahead and I felt slightly safer but still felt like I might have to choose between the two, and next thing you know Nog posted.

I actually had my vote typed out and everything (it was for Nerwen but I had Agan's name ready to paste just in case) and was ready to post it in the final seconds, but when I refreshed my other window I saw that Nog had already posted so I figured I wouldn't bother.

My question about the voting is this- did the WWs or EW even have to bother worrying about anything?

Nerwen was innocent.

I am innocent.

So there was not really a need to mount a late lynch campaign to save anyone. The WWs were free to toss their votes away.

In addition, I doubt the WWs would've even known who to save. I can't see any way the EW has told them about each other.

It is certainly possible that the EW gave them some sort of "safe lynch list" or something, but how would we really pick that out?

The only scenario that I can think of in which there might have been saving going on is if Nerwen was on the safe list and I wasn't, but I don't think that is very likely- unless the EW was wanting to make me a WW later.

Which would be smart of course. *nudge nudge wink wink* Guarantee victory for the Wolves, it would.

Okay, like I said earlier I keep flip-flopping on Legate, and I am continuing to do so. But the fact that he did enough for me to even form an opinion on him is enough for me to want to keep him around for a bit.

Originally Posted by Agan

The way phantom seemed/seems to be dominating the discussion makes me feel uneasy.

That's a typical Day 1 if I am in the village.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Dur

So stop mentioning ____ and making ____ feel he is at the center of attention.

Ha ha ha!

[the phantom]

Okay, I went back and read over some people.

Eonwe is confusing. He comes in and gets onto Roa for criticizing Sally for voting for me and then voting for me herself, and then he votes for me.

Next, I feel pretty good about morm after yesterday.

But I think he was wrong about Brin. Her reactions and such seem pretty good after rereading her posts.

[satansaloser2005]

*chuckles* Phantom, you're always like this, aren't you?

Sorry, just felt like saying that. Back in a sec with timed voting records and some commentary on the night kills. *mutters about Volo and Kit, especially Volo....blankity blank werewolves!!!!*



EDIT: x'd with the last phantom

[the phantom]

Ah, so the storms didn't kill you Sally? Excellent. A nasty one is raging here in Omaha right now, but it's nearly finished.

Lightning is so pretty. At least when it doesn't knock the power out. That would be a disaster while trying to participate in a WW village!

[satansaloser2005]

I lied. A separate post for this....just so I can get this over with and then get to my own thoughts.



DAY ONE VOTES
Morm-->Brinn 12:26pm
Sally-->Phantom 2:24pm
Gwath-->Sally 2:54pm
Kit-->Morm 6:25pm
Nerwen-->Cailin 7:34pm
Roa-->Phantom 7:48pm
Cellie-->Izzy 8:44pm
Rikae-->Morm 9:22pm
Izzy-->Roa 9:26pm
Shasta-->Phantom 9:30pm
Eon-->Phantom 9:43pm
Cailin-->Nerwen 9:56pm
Ka-->Cellie 9:57pm
Greenie-->Gwath 10:00pm
Cabbie-->Nerwen 10:09pm
Mac-->Legate 10:10pm
Lallie-->Nerwen 10:15pm
Durie-->Nerwen 10:28pm
Lommie-->Agan 10:43pm
Diamond-->Nerwen 10:45pm
Volo-->Agan 10:46pm
Brinn-->Agan 10:53pm
Legate-->Agan 10:57pm
Agan-->Nerwen 10:59pm
No votes: Kath, Lhuna, Nilp, Phantom



Note: As is my typical style, known innocents are in italics and known wolves (not that we have any yet, but still....) are underlined

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm still unsure about Phantom, but all we've been doing is talking around in circles about him. Let's leave that for now.

It seems like someone wants to clip the Volo family tree from the root up! I'm the only gaffer left now...

I'll go consult the cards. Maybe they'll give me some insight.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Sally, a word before I go; I notice Ka is italicized in your vote times. Why are you so sure she's innocent?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Ah, so the storms didn't kill you Sally? Excellent. A nasty one is raging here in Omaha right now, but it's nearly finished.

Lightning is so pretty. At least when it doesn't knock the power out. That would be a disaster while trying to participate in a WW village!

Nope, I'm quite fine, glad you haven't been wiped off the map. The storms are pretty much all around us (I'm about 20 miles west of Crete, in Friend, if you know where that is) but we're only getting a pretty light show. And I do mean a PRETTY light show....

Not a power outage! NOES!

Okay, I promise, I'll get to game discussion now....


Oh, and to Shasta. Sorry, that was a mistake. I only denote known roles; I must have italicized her instead of Nerwen or something. Thanks for noticing! *fixes*

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Where in the rules does it say you have to vote?

*smack*

Did I ask about the rules?

I see a posting requirement, but no voting requirement.

Which completely avoids my question... and makes erroneous assumptions about my reasons for asking it. I was interested in your reason for not voting, not whether or not you technically had to.

But little matter, since you answered Ka. Or rather, elaborated on her hypothesis.

Bored with that topic, now.

Perhaps I'll make a list. I have no idea what to put on that list, though. Oh wait --

What Diamond Thinks:

1. Volo was the seer.
2. He voted for Aganzir.
3. Aganzir is evil!
4. Lynch her! Dance in her blood!
5. Volo probably didn't dream about her, anyway.
6. But I do so wish for a good blood-dance.

I'll be back.

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, down to business.

First of all, my little cousin Di should lay off the wax....like seriously....

Why did Volo and Kit die? Like Brinn said, it was most likely random, as Volo and Kit were pretty unsuspicious.

Random tangent. What if Volo was just scried as a Seer tonight? Oh, wait. Is that even possible? I don't think so. Just kidding. Moving on....

Anyway, I'm pretty sure that the kills were random. Volo may have pegged a wolf, but I kind of doubt it.
Agan may be a horr....ible person () but I don't, at least yet, think she's a killer. I'll have to think about it more before I sic my duckling on her.

And Phantom, why DIDN'T you vote yesterday? That's rather odd, especially since we all know you were around and posting.


EDIT: x'd with cousin Di

[Lhunardawen]

Whoa. the phantom is just about the only person I know with Seer-hunting capabilities like this. The other I'm sure of is Kuru - he must be a wolf!

Seriously, I'm not sure my betrothed is a wolf. He's too noisy, he'll just get himself killed. I'm a wee bit certain I'm engaged to a wizard, but we'll see.

Okay, so why Volo? I mean seriously, that was one mean kill. Out of more than 20, they got him?

If I remember right someone said something about him posting differently. I'll try to *sigh* crawl through yesterDay's posts and see if that says something. Gosh, really. 6 pages in a day. I almost want to die already.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

*smack*

What Diamond Thinks:

1. Volo was the seer.
2. He voted for Aganzir.
3. Aganzir is evil!
4. Lynch her! Dance in her blood!
5. Volo probably didn't dream about her, anyway.
6. But I do so wish for a good blood-dance.

Wow....and my boyfriend thought I was violent and blood-thirsty....

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

What Diamond Thinks:

1. Volo was the seer.
2. He voted for Aganzir.
3. Aganzir is evil!
4. Lynch her! Dance in her blood!
5. Volo probably didn't dream about her, anyway.
6. But I do so wish for a good blood-dance.(Di)

There were no NIGHT activity (Seer dream, etc.) on NIGHT 1, so last NIGHT was supposed to be the first dream.

[Roa_Aoife]

Why are they killing off my family?!?!?! First Nogrod, then Nerwen, then Volo and Kitanna! Hide yourselves, Legate and Brinn! Quickly!

Okay, I'm just checking in. I'll be back after I go back through the thread. I'm going to look at where that Nerwen suspicion started, since she didn't ring any alarm bells from me the first time through. Of course, I was in a hurry, and so might have missed some things.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

There were no NIGHT activity (Seer dream, etc.) on NIGHT 1, so last NIGHT was supposed to be the first dream.

DADDY!!!!!! I'm so happy you're safe!!!!!



And good point. I didn't think about that; there's no WAY he dreamed ANYTHING. Thanks for mentioning it. (Can we kill Agan later anyway? )

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Why are they killing off my family?!?!?! First Nogrod, then Nerwen, then Volo and Kitanna! Hide yourselves, Legate and Brinn! Quickly!

Indeed. I think I speak for my dear sister as well when I say that if you touch our loves, you're in some seriously deep trouble. (And Legate darling, by the way, you best explain your little bit of flipflopping yesterday, voting Agan and yet not wanting her killed. Acting like that could get you lynched, and you know I wouldn't want that)

[Lhunardawen]

I'm not sure what to make of this killing all in one family thing. One far-fetched theory I can contrive is that the wolves probably come mostly from the Greenie line (not to suspect Greenie herself of anything), and are killing off the Volo line because killing their own will reduce their connections and make it more likely for them to be lynched. But then it was already learned from history that placing all eggs in one basket (gifteds/wolves in one family) is a bad idea, and it would be rather odd for the present EW to do as the past GW did. Hmm.

[the phantom]

And Phantom, why DIDN'T you vote yesterday?

See post #248.

Why did Volo and Kit die?

I'll try and look at that later. Not sure if I'll get to it tonight or if I'll have to do it in the morning.

Whoa. the phantom is just about the only person I know with Seer-hunting capabilities like this.

Ha ha! Thanks, sweetie.

But Seer hunting skills are pretty much worthless in this village- at least while the Wizards are still around. There's no need for the Seer to drop hints and such, or even indicate that he knows anything about anyone, for his dreams will survive him with the GW.

I'm a wee bit certain I'm engaged to a wizard, but we'll see.

Now that would possibly be even more fun than switching sides! More pressure and all, but still fun no doubt. So much power... mwu ha ha ha!!

Hmm... Let's think here... if I am indeed a Wizard and your finger-pointing leads the other Wizard to discover me... well, that seems almost suicidal on your part, cause you know I'd feel like killing you then.

So that makes me think you don't really believe it, or that you wouldn't mind dying to expose a Wizard. But which one do you think you are exposing, eh? If you think I'm the GW then you're probably evil. If you think I'm the EW then you must be aware that I will kill you, thus I seriously doubt that you are gifted (a gifted would not take that sort of risk).

So that makes you an excellent lynch choice by my book. Tread carefully, dearie. I don't particularly want my fiance dead.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

See post #248.

I'll try and look at that later. Not sure if I'll get to it tonight or if I'll have to do it in the morning.

Ha ha! Thanks, sweetie.

But Seer hunting skills are pretty much worthless in this village- at least while the Wizards are still around. There's no need for the Seer to drop hints and such, or even indicate that he knows anything about anyone, for his dreams will survive him with the GW.

Now that would possibly be even more fun than switching sides! More pressure and all, but still fun no doubt. So much power... mwu ha ha ha!!

Hmm... Let's think here... if I am indeed a Wizard and your finger-pointing leads the other Wizard to discover me... well, that seems almost suicidal on your part, cause you know I'd feel like killing you then.

So that makes me think you don't really believe it, or that you wouldn't mind dying to expose a Wizard. But which one do you think you are exposing, eh? If you think I'm the GW then you're probably evil. If you think I'm the EW then you must be aware that I will kill you, thus I seriously doubt that you are gifted (a gifted would not take that sort of risk).

So that makes you an excellent lynch choice by my book. Tread carefully, dearie. I don't particularly want my fiance dead.

You leave my cousin alone....cousin! (crud, this is difficult....)

Thanks for clearing up your no-vote. Sorry I didn't see it earlier; I'm a bit tired tonight.

Randomly, Phantom, how's the weather shaping up for you? The windows keep shaking over here, but my friends aren't watching the weather anymore.

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

First of all, my little cousin Di should lay off the wax....like seriously....

But I like wax. It makes me feel so alive.

Originally Posted by Nilp

There were no NIGHT activity (Seer dream, etc.) on NIGHT 1, so last NIGHT was supposed to be the first dream.

Hnuh? But the Good Wizard did Scry hin on Night 1, right? If he didn't get to then dream, what's the point? It's like getting a badge that says I'm A Seer, Ask Me How but not getting to actually be the Seer yet.

I'm digging deep into the foggy recesses of my brain to remember if Seers generally get a first Night dream, or not. I thought they did.

[the phantom]

Thanks for clearing up your no-vote. Sorry I didn't see it earlier; I'm a bit tired tonight.

No problem.

Randomly, Phantom, how's the weather shaping up for you?

Looking at the radar, it appears pretty much everything beneath I80 is getting pounded. It's been pretty good here though. The bad stuff just can't seem to push up this far. I'm probably sleeping in the basement just in case though.

On the Seer dream issue, I seem to remember in the last dueling wizard game that the Seer did dream on Night 1.

[Durelin]

Yeah, seems sucky to me, too, but:

Originally Posted by Nogmod

- There is no "action" on Night1: no wolf kills, no dreams, no protections (the hunter should send me her hunt though as that will take place if she dies lynched on Day1). Only discussions within the limits the wizards allow it.

[the phantom]

Wait- never mind... there was no Seer on night 1 in the last game. There was a same-person scry.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

But I like wax. It makes me feel so alive.

*takes Di's wax* Celuien, don't let her in your shop, all right? As her older cousin, I feel the need to protect Di from....herself. *chuckles* Oh, and what do you have in the line of scented candles? I have a wax fetish myself, albeit of a different variety.

Originally Posted by Silly Di

Hnuh? But the Good Wizard did Scry hin on Night 1, right? If he didn't get to then dream, what's the point? It's like getting a badge that says I'm A Seer, Ask Me How but not getting to actually be the Seer yet.

I'm digging deep into the foggy recesses of my brain to remember if Seers generally get a first Night dream, or not. I thought they did.

Normally yes. But in this case, I think (repeat I think....Father and I may be wrong) the gifteds/wolves were scried the first night just to give them a chance to plan (if their Wizards allowed them to do so) and for the Wizards to set up their plans and play with their minions' heads.

[the phantom]

The difference is that in this game we started with a full compliment of gifteds, thus a Seer dream is not really necessary, for the GW already knows the identity of three villagers. I imagine that's why there was no dream.

[satansaloser2005]

Just kidding....what they said.... *shifty eyes*

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Durelin

Oh, before I forget - Brinn was quite right and I was quite silly yesterDay. When I came back about 40 minutes before the deadline I really...skimmed the posts posted while I was away. I totally missed your stuff about Aganzir. I kept thinking you had only posted twice, as you mentioned in your one post. Of course that was your third post...and I didn't read it all.

Heh, that's okay. Sometimes I wonder if anyone reads my posts...

Originally Posted by Roa

I'm going to look at where that Nerwen suspicion started, since she didn't ring any alarm bells from me the first time through.

That would be Cailin with this quote:

Originally Posted by Cailin

This is a very suspicious first post. Nerwen takes a long time to do nothing but criticise other people's ideas and post signs indicating potential wolvish behaviour. She's also giving wolves a nice guide on how not to act. I can't see what she hopes to achieve with this, other than to look helpful and serious in the eyes of the casual reader.

I already mentioned my thoughts on Cailin and I do think she's a bit suspicious. And it doesn't help now that Nerwen's been proven innocent.

[Roa_Aoife]

You know, I'm really curious about all these people who say, "Phantom can't be a wolf- he's too noisy/loud/obvious/whatever." Since when has NOT been that way, wolf or not? But I have seen him as both, and I've seen him take a real leadership role and really help out the village... when he's a good guy. I've seen him be loud and distracting and post erroneously... when he's a bad guy. Phantom is nothing if not bold, no matter what role he has.

And I'll add this- last Dueling Wizard's game, I looked at phantom with two options: wolf or dead. I erred on the side of caution and picked dead. I don't believe this EW is the same. And phantom's posting thus far had really convinced me that he is not on the villagers' side, whatever his role may be.

Also, on the point of the deaths of Volo and Kitanna- it is more likely that they were killed because the EW believed them likely scries by the GW, and she picked correctly for one of them. I hope for the sake of our gifteds that the GW is scattering his choices around abit, and not sticking to players of certain qualities.

Okay, now I'm really going to look through Day 1 (I have a handy dandy chart!).

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I still say it's possible to find connections, as the EW may force them to act contrary to their normal playing style; then again, maybe not. It's worth a shot though, in any case.

This quote yesterday from Sally seemed way too...sane and middle-of-the-road for her, which made me very suspicious. However, she seems to have reverted to her usual lunatic posting style sometime during the Night, because today she sounds completely normal. I don't know if there's anything in it, or if yesterDay was a fluke.

Eonwe's vote for the phantom yesterDay in post #156 is just plain surreal. First, he called out Roa for voting tp after she had criticized sally for doing the same, then after a bandwagon had begun to develop around tp, Eonwe goes and votes against tp himself, backing his vote up with a statement which is impossible to prove (either true or false) and a cocky, empty accusation (which tp seemed to find funny...though he has been laughing an awful lot). In this, Eonwe looks like an inexperienced and clumsy wolf who is not doing a good job of blending in, who is trying to simultaneously be casual, critical, and bold.

I must agree, however, with Eonwe that Roa looks awfully bad for criticizing sally's vote against tp shortly before voting against him herself in post #122. And as much as I didn't like she and tp dominating the discussion yesterday, it's bothering me even more how tp is continuing to do so today. Five posts already today, I think? It seems unhealthy for the village to hear so much of one voice.

Diamond18's post #208 is problematic, first because it provides little/poor reasoning behind her vote against the innocent Nerwen (though, obviously, she could only have known Nerwen was innocent if Di were a Wizard), and second, because in it she appears to be trying to be neither good nor bad, and we all know that You're Gonna Have To Serve Somebody. There isn't the middle road that she claims to be walking.

I really don't like the inordinate number of supposedly random votes. It may simply be a product of having a huge village, because it's hard to get one's sights on any one particular person, but I still don't like it.

I don't think I've played with Lalaith before, so perhaps this is just her posting style, BUT yesterDay her posts seemed far too chipper, matter-of-fact, friendly, and generally unhelpful for her to be genuine. Like I said, maybe that's just my bad first impression, but I'm going to watch and see if it persists toDay.

Ok. Sorry about the laundry list. I just went through and typed my notes from yesterDay.

EDIT: I crossed with about fifty people, I don't even know where it starts. But I see that tp posted some more...

[Roa_Aoife]

I must agree, however, with Eonwe that Roa looks awfully bad for criticizing sally's vote against tp shortly before voting against him herself in post #122.

I gave continuous reasons for believing phantom to be a baddie. I backed up with posts and reasoning. Sally did not. Her vote appeared almost random. I am not like some people *coughMaccough* who only distrust people who don't agree with them. I don't care if you agree with me or not. If you don't have good reasoning, or your reasoning is clearly faulty, I will suspect you. It's as simple as that. I'm not convinced that Sally truly thought phantom was guilty, or that she wasn't trying to start something in that direction.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Many people before me have made their own voting lists already; my daughter even made one with timestamps. But I want to create my own list, so I can draw ideas from them as I go along. People can say anything they like, but when one makes a vote, one commits to either a person's lynching or salvation.

Problem is, we don't know if the wolves do know each other. Many cases have been made for this, but . . . what if they do know each other? (It makes them more effective by DAY, after all, and if caught, they can explain away whatever connexions come up by saying that they can't be lupine connexions, since the wolves wouldn't know each other.) What if those saying or agreeing to the impossibility of three talking wolves are actually wolves themselves?

Hence, I will go on with my analysis. Since we only have three villagers whose roles are known, I'll focus my analysis on voting motives (why they voted) of people who joined bandwaggons (which are created to kill, after all). Times are GMT + 8. Known innocents are underlined.

08:26pm morm - Brinn (Brinn - 1)
10:24pm Sally - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 1)
10:54pm Gwath - Sally (Brinn - 1, tp - 1, Sally - 1)
02:25am Kit - morm (Brinn - 1, tp - 1, Sally - 1, morm - 1)
03:34am Nerwen - Cailín (Brinn - 1, tp - 1, Sally - 1, morm - 1, Cailín - 1)
03:48am Roa - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 1, Cailín - 1)
04:44am Celu - Izzy (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 1, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1)
05:22am Rikae - morm (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1)
05:26am Izzy - Roa (Brinn - 1, tp - 2, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1)
05:30am Shasta - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 3, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1)
05:43am Eönwë - tp (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1)
05:56am Cailín - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 1)
05:57am Ka - Celu (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 1, Celu - 1)
06:00am Greenie - Gwath (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 1, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1)
06:09am McCaber - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 2, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1)
06:10am Mac - Legate (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 2, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1)
06:15am Lal - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 3, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1)
06:28am Durelin - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 4, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1)
06:43am Lommy - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 4, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 1)
06:45am Di - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 1)
06:46am Volo - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 2)
06:53am Brinn - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 3)
06:57am Legate - Agan (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 5, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 4)
06:59am Agan - Nerwen (Brinn - 1, tp - 4, Sally - 1, morm - 2, Cailín - 1, Izzy - 1, Roa - 1, Nerwen - 6, Celu - 1, Gwath - 1, Legate - 1, Agan - 4)

Bandwaggons:

• The Fantine bandwaggon came up quite early, and it was not sudden - Fantine was being his usual self, provoking strong (often negative) reaction from the villagers. Interesting was Eönwë's vote (q.v.), and his previous post (q.v..) He has made one other post in the game, an in-character one. Nowhere do I see how he came to be suspicious of Fantine's motives 'the whole time'.
• The Nerwen bandwaggon was started by Cailín, who accused her of seeming to be helpful, but actually contributing nothing (qq.v. 105, 165). Most of the other who joined it, however, have less than concrete reasons for doing so (qq.v. McCaber's 175, Di's 208.)
• The Agan bandwaggon was started near the end of DAY 1 by Lommy, who thought Agan to be suspicious from the very beginning, but thought that voting for her would end up being a waste (qq.v. 183, 205.) It is the least suspicious bandwaggon to me.

More later.

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

You know, I'm really curious about all these people who say, "Phantom can't be a wolf- he's too noisy/loud/obvious/whatever." Since when has NOT been that way, wolf or not? But I have seen him as both, and I've seen him take a real leadership role and really help out the village... when he's a good guy. I've seen him be loud and distracting and post erroneously... when he's a bad guy. Phantom is nothing if not bold, no matter what role he has.

My reason is that I'm quite convinced that whoever the EW is, she would want to pick wolves who can stay alive longer. the phantom is a relatively easy lynch target. I mean, if I had my way, I would have him lynched now just to be sure of his allegiance. This is one reason I think he might be a wizard, because he posts as if he has nothing to lose by getting himself lynched. (But hmm, the same could be said of some ordinary villagers.)

But then, the EW might have assumed he would not be lynched because
1. the villagers would think as I thought
2. the phantom is just so much fun to be around

and turned him into a wolf. Tada! Instant protection.

You know, phantom, this is why I love you so much. You're so enigmatic.

And no, my dear, I will speculate as much as I want - I have nothing to lose. I'm an ordinary villager. Go ahead and lynch me.