Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[satansaloser2005]

Okay, down to business.

First of all, my little cousin Di should lay off the wax....like seriously....

Why did Volo and Kit die? Like Brinn said, it was most likely random, as Volo and Kit were pretty unsuspicious.

Random tangent. What if Volo was just scried as a Seer tonight? Oh, wait. Is that even possible? I don't think so. Just kidding. Moving on....

Anyway, I'm pretty sure that the kills were random. Volo may have pegged a wolf, but I kind of doubt it.
Agan may be a horr....ible person () but I don't, at least yet, think she's a killer. I'll have to think about it more before I sic my duckling on her.

And Phantom, why DIDN'T you vote yesterday? That's rather odd, especially since we all know you were around and posting.


EDIT: x'd with cousin Di

[Diamond18]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

First of all, my little cousin Di should lay off the wax....like seriously....

But I like wax. It makes me feel so alive.

Originally Posted by Nilp

There were no NIGHT activity (Seer dream, etc.) on NIGHT 1, so last NIGHT was supposed to be the first dream.

Hnuh? But the Good Wizard did Scry hin on Night 1, right? If he didn't get to then dream, what's the point? It's like getting a badge that says I'm A Seer, Ask Me How but not getting to actually be the Seer yet.

I'm digging deep into the foggy recesses of my brain to remember if Seers generally get a first Night dream, or not. I thought they did.

[the phantom]

Thanks for clearing up your no-vote. Sorry I didn't see it earlier; I'm a bit tired tonight.

No problem.

Randomly, Phantom, how's the weather shaping up for you?

Looking at the radar, it appears pretty much everything beneath I80 is getting pounded. It's been pretty good here though. The bad stuff just can't seem to push up this far. I'm probably sleeping in the basement just in case though.

On the Seer dream issue, I seem to remember in the last dueling wizard game that the Seer did dream on Night 1.

[Durelin]

Yeah, seems sucky to me, too, but:

Originally Posted by Nogmod

- There is no "action" on Night1: no wolf kills, no dreams, no protections (the hunter should send me her hunt though as that will take place if she dies lynched on Day1). Only discussions within the limits the wizards allow it.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by the phantom

So that makes me think you don't really believe it, or that you wouldn't mind dying to expose a Wizard. But which one do you think you are exposing, eh? If you think I'm the GW then you're probably evil. If you think I'm the EW then you must be aware that I will kill you, thus I seriously doubt that you are gifted (a gifted would not take that sort of risk).

At first I didn't think this made sense, but now I realize it did.

Huh, was reading over, and realized that Lommy, Greenie, and Volo all three had suspicion of Aganzir.

Volo openly agreed with Lommy (and we know now he was the seer, yeah, whatever), but Greenie simply tosses this in about Aganzir, while remaining on her general course towards voting for Gwath:

Originally Posted by Greenie

(there is something in her overall manner that just doesn't sit right with me).

Originally Posted by Lommy

Agan is definitely not sitting right with me. Really. There's something too... cunning and sneaky in her manner.

It's interesting. I think Lommy did some good leading/planting of ideas there.

Oh, and yeah, I started talking about Nerwen fairly early on, too, along with Cailin.

Originally Posted by Sally

Not defending my actions, just letting you know what's going on. And in my defense, I did warn that I wouldn't be particularly participative during the game.

Hehe.

[the phantom]

Wait- never mind... there was no Seer on night 1 in the last game. There was a same-person scry.

[the phantom]

The difference is that in this game we started with a full compliment of gifteds, thus a Seer dream is not really necessary, for the GW already knows the identity of three villagers. I imagine that's why there was no dream.

[Roa_Aoife]

You know, I'm really curious about all these people who say, "Phantom can't be a wolf- he's too noisy/loud/obvious/whatever." Since when has NOT been that way, wolf or not? But I have seen him as both, and I've seen him take a real leadership role and really help out the village... when he's a good guy. I've seen him be loud and distracting and post erroneously... when he's a bad guy. Phantom is nothing if not bold, no matter what role he has.

And I'll add this- last Dueling Wizard's game, I looked at phantom with two options: wolf or dead. I erred on the side of caution and picked dead. I don't believe this EW is the same. And phantom's posting thus far had really convinced me that he is not on the villagers' side, whatever his role may be.

Also, on the point of the deaths of Volo and Kitanna- it is more likely that they were killed because the EW believed them likely scries by the GW, and she picked correctly for one of them. I hope for the sake of our gifteds that the GW is scattering his choices around abit, and not sticking to players of certain qualities.

Okay, now I'm really going to look through Day 1 (I have a handy dandy chart!).

[Lhunardawen]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

You know, I'm really curious about all these people who say, "Phantom can't be a wolf- he's too noisy/loud/obvious/whatever." Since when has NOT been that way, wolf or not? But I have seen him as both, and I've seen him take a real leadership role and really help out the village... when he's a good guy. I've seen him be loud and distracting and post erroneously... when he's a bad guy. Phantom is nothing if not bold, no matter what role he has.

My reason is that I'm quite convinced that whoever the EW is, she would want to pick wolves who can stay alive longer. the phantom is a relatively easy lynch target. I mean, if I had my way, I would have him lynched now just to be sure of his allegiance. This is one reason I think he might be a wizard, because he posts as if he has nothing to lose by getting himself lynched. (But hmm, the same could be said of some ordinary villagers.)

But then, the EW might have assumed he would not be lynched because
1. the villagers would think as I thought
2. the phantom is just so much fun to be around

and turned him into a wolf. Tada! Instant protection.

You know, phantom, this is why I love you so much. You're so enigmatic.

And no, my dear, I will speculate as much as I want - I have nothing to lose. I'm an ordinary villager. Go ahead and lynch me.

[Diamond18]

See?

With a brother like that, who can blame me for developing a wax addiction.

Originally Posted by Gwath

...and we all know that You're Gonna Have To Serve Somebody.

I like to think of myself as self-serving.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Diamond18

But I like wax. It makes me feel so alive.

*takes Di's wax* Celuien, don't let her in your shop, all right? As her older cousin, I feel the need to protect Di from....herself. *chuckles* Oh, and what do you have in the line of scented candles? I have a wax fetish myself, albeit of a different variety.

Originally Posted by Silly Di

Hnuh? But the Good Wizard did Scry hin on Night 1, right? If he didn't get to then dream, what's the point? It's like getting a badge that says I'm A Seer, Ask Me How but not getting to actually be the Seer yet.

I'm digging deep into the foggy recesses of my brain to remember if Seers generally get a first Night dream, or not. I thought they did.

Normally yes. But in this case, I think (repeat I think....Father and I may be wrong) the gifteds/wolves were scried the first night just to give them a chance to plan (if their Wizards allowed them to do so) and for the Wizards to set up their plans and play with their minions' heads.

[satansaloser2005]

Just kidding....what they said.... *shifty eyes*

[THE Ka]

Originally Posted by Sally

EDIT: mistakenly italicized Ka....whoops!

Awh, I felt so loved for a moment. (no worries, I wasn't around to see my blessed innocence).

Originally Posted by Di

4. Lynch her! Dance in her blood!

Hey, hey... Family standing right here.

Nah, it's cool. Agan will probably kill me in my sleep eventually.

Originally Posted by tp

Bingo. Since I was at risk, I was holding my vote till the very end.

At moments, this all reminds me you could be a very clever cat.


Anyways, back to posts.

Legate's flustered vote at the end reminds me of (I'm not 100% sure on this, so if you know for sure please correct me. Aganzir should know, we squared off together) a few of Volo's WW's back where he turned out to be a gifted and was unfortunately killed by wolves that second Night. I believe he had a similar situation of voting, and being considered suspicious for it as well. While I cannot be completely certain that this was the case this time, I'm going to find it a bit hard to place suspicion on him simply for first-day indecisiveness (world knows I'm 'guilty' of it as well, take Legate's last WW for an example. I don't even think I voted the first day because I hadn't a clue).
Simply put, first days are never worth their trouble until afterwards, and unfortunately being hesitant is more likely to have you killed than being rash. I'd rather read more of his posts and see toDay how things go.
I still have three more pages to sift through.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I find it highly amusing that I tend to survive as a wolf and be suspected as an innocent.

I'd rather trust Lommy (or not, if you're somehow covering for her) on this than myself, but from personal experiences with Aganzir the wolf and innocent this is typical. Though, maybe I might be blinded a bit, but I distinctly remember the first time I played with her (yes, a wolf) she was a bit more subtle around voting time. If I was out harvesting likely wolves to act in my best interest I'd definately pick Agan because she's a natural, but not immediately because it is likely there would be suspicion. I'd rather save my best wolf for last, when everyone's gotten, scryed, etc. to the point where thinking someone is an actual wolf is old news. Save time and wolfy abilities and recruit a player like Agan 'till later... Unless she was the EW, then well, things obviously would be far different.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I don't really understand this Nerwen bandwagon, and I'd rather let her live.

Obviously stuck out to me, but for all I know this could be fodder for either argument that she's innocent or not.

I'm still sizing her motives now, but so far she seems her usual self, or just more open.

Gwath is oddly quiet, I would have expected more from him by now, but I won't presume too much. (Nor let you fly right under the radar so easily if you don't mean well...)

Now it's time to question myself!
I thought Celuien was acting rather suspicious yesterday with contradictory arguments so soon between posts, but after reading the discussion thread I feel rather bratty for the vote considering how busy they were with moving at the moment (plus, obviously an EW would want more available wolves to channel the rest of us where they want us, durrrr.). Still somewhat suspicious naturally, but I can see I did absolutely nothing costructive and threw everything to the wind.

Originally Posted by Di

It's like.... "Let's all post the exact same information, but with different formatting!"

Vista comes to WW...

I'm still trying to form some reasonable theory for Volo's killing besides the possibility of being found out (a stretch too?), and so far I only can surmise reasons on his behavior (oddly, cheery and a bit well seated, but I guess anyone being a seer would have some hope of confidence).
I'll try looking again in the morning and after spending a sleepless night mulling over the whole ordeal and see if anything comes out of it, though I can guess everyone else will know before I do which is a good sign.
See you in the morning.

[Roa_Aoife]

Finally, you get serious, phantom. I've been wanting that from you.

You may be right in that the EW would not want to risk it. But I was the EW, and I did risk it. Heck, I was down a wolf (due to the double pick fiasco) and I still did it. So your definite "NO" is definitely not definite.

Also, I don't know why you are so certain that the EW gave her wolves possible lynch candidates. I never did, and my wolves did just fine. The GW did something like that for the entire village, but only after his role had been revealed. In fact, I even encouraged my wolves to lynch as they liked. Someone acts suspiciously? Lynch them! It makes the wolves harder to trace because they aren't having to lie about their suspicions. So, really, your whole hypothesis does not match up to previous experience.

Furthermore, even if we had a "playing it safe" EW (a possibility), it does not disclude the other two possibilities: a. that you and Sally are both wolves who don't know it, or b. that sally is a wolf who doesn't realize you are the EW.

Still further, were you the EW, I would not expect you to kill people who suspected you, as your exceptionally thinly veiled threat towards Lhuna implied.

Edit: crossed posted with Ka and Gwath