Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLVII: Dueling Wizards Werewolf II

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Other than that, I don't like the casting of random or unreasoned votes yesterDay and not explaining them. I'd still like an explanation from Gwath as I voted him yesterDay because of his suspicious behaviour, a great part of which was his completely unreasoned vote.

Sorry. I voted for sally for the suspicions outlined in my first post toDay, basiucally because her posting style yesterDay seemed markedly subdued from her usual craziness, and almost compromising in places. YesterDay, mind you. She doesn't seem to be doing it toDay.

[Gwathagor]

Man! Ok, I have to vote within the next 40 minutes...

[Gwathagor]

I would like to vote for either tp or Roa. But I can't decide which one is the wolf, so I am going to hold off casting judgement regarding that particular brawl until tomorrow.

Eonwe's vote against tp yesterDay still looks suspicious, but as has been pointed out, he is new. So he gets another day from me as well.

sally has ceased behaving oddly, so I can't justify voting against her. Darn.

So:

++Lalaith

I have to go do the dishes, but here's my explanation: her friendly tone looks to me like a facade which is betrayed by the unhelpful nature of her posts. I'll elaborate later if I have time.....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Phantom worries me today, moreso than yesterday. I shan't go into why; seems to me more than enough attention has been paid his way today.

To others that seem odd to be are Mac and Legate, at the moment. Now, I've never been good at dredging up a whole page-ful of quotes to respond to, but I'll do my best. (Legate will probably end up just me being vain... )

[Rikae]

Less threatening? Have I lost my touch?
I'll lynch you all!

Hmph.

Anyway, I went and looked at the list and all I can say is, there are too many people in this village flying under the radar already. Most of these people, I can't form any impression of at all, because they are posting too little and/or too blandly - which, to me, suggests the majority of our baddies lurk among them.

A Little Green, Lalaith, Kath, McCaber, THE Ka, Celuien... others that escape me at the moment - oh yes, even Lommy now, who's usually in the spotlight to some extent - are all slipping my mind in this game, and as slippery as my mind may be, that's still bugging me. Gwath's vote for Lalaith looks kind of random, but I can understand it. Still, of that list, I find the quietness of Lommy and Greenie most worrying.

EDIT: Crossed with Shasta, who is also slippery.

[Durelin]

Gwath's 'devotion' seems half-hearted (I think it was Rikae who said he and Sally seemed more devoted to this game than usual?).

A couple of the forgotten...

Lalaith is creepy along with Cailin. There's a nasty pair...

morm is morm.

Oh yeah, sally... Yeah. Might as well be a wolf.

Ohhh, there are two Eonwe's! (Wayyy too lazy to do accent marks.)

Wow, totally forgot Shasta and Celuien. Hmm...

Need to go take a shower (it's noon here...hah).

Edit: Crossed with Shasta and Rikae.

Oh don't worry, Rikae...I'm sure you'll become more and more of a looming threat in the shadows the longer you happen to survive...

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'm here to post a little postie before being off to work a little. The thing is, I have very little to say. I don't have a clue about anything and I'm getting frustrated. Gwath looks better toDay than he did yesterDay. As to who looks bad... no one and everyone.

Originally Posted by Dury

However...I can see Roa EW throwing phantom-wolf to the "lambs"... Yes, she could be the EW again, lucky her.

I agree that it looks like a possible scenario, except that didn't Roa do something very like that in her last game as EW? I don't know whether she'd do the same in this one...

Bah. I'm really much too frustrated at the moment. I guess I need to think a little and come back with substance (hopefully).

What comes to Lommy being quiet, well, she studied for some hours, then went off to see her friends, and is going to a concert in the evening. She'll be back well before the DL, I think..


EDIT: x-ed since Rikae

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Macalaure - Day 1

#52 - Speculation on how wolves might act. Wonders why we don't just go for whoever simply appears evil, rather than WWs or the EW. Suspicious of Roa (because wanting to look for WWs is wolfish, apparently), Shasta for agreeing, and I can't make out whether he suspects Lhuna or not, but she agreed with Roa as well, so... Says morm, Ka, and Phantom are unlikely to be the EW because... they're too controversial? For starters, I don't believe morm had posted much of anything, if anything by the time you posted this, so I don't see how he could be classified as controversial unless you're talking about personality, which (I assume) wasn't a major factor in Nogrod's decision. In fact, if you're talking about personality, the same could be said of Ka and Phantom. Really not sure what you mean by that, Mac. Anyway, closes by admitting to be baffled by Cailin.

#64 - Agrees heartily with Volo's bulleted list of possibilities. Mentions how dire the situation will be if we haven't found the EW by the time she can be defeated (Day 4). Points out Greenie's way of drawing attention to Volo's wolf slip, while drawing attention to it himself.

#76 - Why are you posting in increments of 12, Mac? Thanks Legate for liking him, but uses this post to point out his own suspicion against Legate. Mentions that he's aware he needs to not suspect people solely for agreeing with Roa. Thinks Legate's way of emphasizing Roa's point about being unable to know anything for sure about the EW is suspicious. Assumes Legate to be discarding Phantom's opinion simply because he does not share it. Puts forth his opinion that the EW could have more risky tasks for her wolves than in a normal game. Also, his likes and dislikes appear here.

#113 - Becomes more suspicious of Legate.

#126 - Continues being more suspicious of Legate. This is mostly because he feels Legate has repeatedly not elaborated on his dismissal of Phantom.

#138 - Increment of 12 again. Thinks Brinniel states the obvious too much. Begins to suspect Rikae for siding with Roa and crew. Says his main suspects are Roa, Legate, and Shasta. Seems to be mainly because of the WW vs EW opinion. Discounts his previous list as being of very little help.

#143 - Ecstatic and enthusiastic agreement with Aganzir about Legate. Dismisses any more talk of WWs vs. EW as uninteresting.

#178 - Predicts the wolves will stay away from voting Phantom. Votes Legate.

Macalaure - Day 2

#346 - Comments on the deaths of Volo and Kitanna; Volo was unlucky, but can be replaced, has no idea on Kitanna. Says the Nerwen bandwagon yesterday was ridiculous. Remarks "If I was evil"... which strikes me as odd; no point in giving the EW ideas if they haven't thought them up on their own. Becomes more actively suspicious of Lhuna for not being specific enough in her own suspicion of him. Also for Lhuna's comment on Eonwe (I don't know how to do accents...). Skipped the Roa/Phantom argument.

#349 - Acknowledges Lhuna's comment about suspecting people that don't agree with him with a "rueful grin". Agrees with (or at least doesn't argue against) Lhuna's thought that he would make a good wolf, but intimates that he could also be gifted.

#352 - Dissects the Nerwen bandwagon. Concludes that Phantom could be the EW, but otherwise doesn't really say anything. This particular quote:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

The dissuaders, Aganzir, Lommy, and Brinniel look good, but since evildoers like looking good, it doesn't automatically point towards innocence.

seems to be one of those classic wishy-washy wolf maneuvers. Dissects Volo's death. Notes that Volo was most inconvenient to (thus, those with the biggest motive to kill him are) Aganzir and Legate, his main suspicion from yesterday. Thinks Legate's suspicion of Volo yesterday was halfhearted and thus suspicious.

#353 - Adds that Aganzir's reaction to Volo was an eyeroll. Notes that her reactions to Lommy's's accusations against her were pretty lethargic until late in the Day, when she began to accumulate votes. Notes a discrepancy in Nilp's theory.

So far, I'm thinking Mac a 7, if 1 is "completely innocent" and 10 is "completely bad". I wouldn't be averse to voting him today. Now to look at Legate.

[Kath]

Day 1, page 1:

Volo - I think it's been decided now that the Seer didn't get a dream on Night 1 which does mean I don't have to search for clues. From his first post I can see little in the way of clues that he's the Seer at all.

Shasta - IC. Finally something of substance even if it is a rule clarification. From what I recall of the last game I think this is right, that EW and wolves communicate through the mod, but that doesn't hamper communication in any way if the EW wants it.

Agan - IC.

Kitanna - IC.

Ka - IC. Post 35, would you mind re-explaining it as I don't really get what you meant. It looks interesting but I can't quite figure it out. Oh! Ignore that, you do explain. Again there I'm taking the view that if you've chosen wolves you think they're going to be good and so you don't really need to control them in that way.

Roa - IC. Takes the complete opposite end of the stick to phantom, saying we must get wolves. Yes true, but pegging the EW would be fantastic. I think they're both arguing for the same thing just from opposing views. Argues that we do need to catch wolves. Claims phantom is deliberately giving out false information which I don't think is the case. Gets that the EW is important but thinks focusing on the wolves is more effective.

phantom - a lot of statistics. Said that we need to find a way to rank the likelihood of those who might be the EW, yet much of his argument with Roa toDay revolved around that fact that this wasn't done. This may be due to those two concentrating on every little mention by the other and maybe we should come back to this. Cailin tried it as I recall, but got pretty much everyone down as evil! We might have to wait til we've had some more information for that to be worthwhile though. To be fair to Roa I don't like how he downplays the serious nature of the wolves. I think it imperative that we aim to find any evil roles, whether they be found through connections (unlikely) or other methods. Has a point about not discussing possible werewolf tactics, in fact doing that generally gets you suspected.

Brinn - a little over the top with 'how much does my head hurt' comments. It's a bit 'oh poor me' and Brinn isn't usually like that. But then, this game is hell on your head.

Durelin - IC.

Sally - IC. Interesting idea that the EW might ask their wolves to play differently but I think it unlikely. The EW set out a list of wolves, so people they thought would be able to pull it off in this game, therefore whichever of those people ended up as wolves the EW shouldn't need their playing style to be different.

Lalaith - IC, though a mention of Roa and phantom's argument.

morm - agrees with phantom that the EW is the key but as he is also trying to figure out who might be wolvish or not (phantom in this case) he seems to take more of a midpoint between Roa and phantom. Thinks Brinn suspicious.

[Kath]

Hmm, and just a note as I've looked at the latest posts, Rikae has a very good point about Lommy. I don't see floodposting, flipflopping and general presence. Definitely something to look at.

[Kath]

Day 1, page 2:

Roa - good point about the EW not wanting to share information.

Lhuna - agrees with Roa about looking for wolves rather than wizards (and why does that remind me of Horcruxes or Hallows? ) but also agrees with phantom that it will be tough.

Durelin - points out that wolves can slip up of their own accord.

Gwath - agrees with phantom that it's the EW that needs to be focused on.

Brinn - good point that looking for connections is possible because the wolves and the EW know each other. Actually this post settles the Roa/phantom argument for me, if only they agreed.

Izzy - basically what Brinn just said.

Cailin - repeats above and does what phantom wanted, tried to work out who might be an EW. Oh, no it was a list of wolves not wizards.

Mac - good point that wolves can be sacrificed because the EW can always make more and that we should simply lynch those who appear evil. Looks at Roa for a comment, some suspicion of Shasta too. Good point about Greenie just pointing out Volo's potential slip and then leaving the outcome to everyone else.

Greenie - suspects phantom some, especially for his attention-grabbing ways.

Volo - ooh very good point about no one using actual names in Night discussions just in case, which ends with him saying it's the EW we need to focus on. Different idea to everyone else, that the GW is better with wolves and we're better with the EW. It's certainly an idea, I'm not familiar enough with the rules to know if this is really right. Someone give me a simple answer here, how do the good guys win? If we lynch the EW what happens? If the GW scries the EW what happens? I admit it, I didn't read the new rules, I'm going on what I recall from the last game.

Rikae - thinks Mac is overreacting a bit and that Roa was right to face phantom though she doesn't think him suspicious. Does think morm a little suspicious though.

morm - voted Brinn on a hunch, no explanation.

Kitanna - repeats a lot of what has gone before conclusion wise, also says not to rely on lists because they're as much use to the EW as the rest of us.

Lommy - sides with Roa about finding the wolves. Agrees with Brinn about connections. Suspects Agan. Has phantom and morm as innocent (though morm less so, there's no definite conclusion there).

Celuien - again mentions that the EW and wolves may not communicate so it might not be possible to find connections.

Ka - makes sense about better to go after wolves than the EW when the EW is going to find it easier to hide.

I've got to post 67 but my head has gone a bit (I need food) and my battery is dying so I'll return later. I'm finding this going through it all quite helpful but I will likely leave it for the rest of the Day and focus on toDay when it comes to voting. Anyway, back soon.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Legate - Day 1

#67 - Slightly in-character entrance. Replies to morm (disagreeing), Roa (agreeing) morm again (disagreeing), Ka (confused, states opinion on whether or not the EW would reveal her identity to the wolves), Roa (agreeing, again), Gwath (disagreeing), Roa again (agreeing), Izzy (agreeing), Greenie (unsure about Phantom - this is the post that Mac bases most of his suspicion of Legate on, Day 1), Mac (disagreeing), Volo (agreeing, but suspicious), Cailin (agreeing), Mac (agreeing). Sums up with liking Mac and Lommy and Aganzir, doesn't like Volo, suspicious of Greenie and Gwath, doesn't know what to think about Phantom. In my opinion, lots of agreeing going on, as well as "who knows" and "why not". Not one to rock the boat, is Legate.

#71 - More in-character. Thinks Agan is clever, tells Sally to vote Phantom while saying he probably will not... This sets my alarms ringing, for some reason.

#77 - Answers Mac's first suspicion regarding Phantom.

#95 - Continues to answer Mac's suspicions regarding Phantom. Believes Nerwen to be innocent. But this quote:

Originally Posted by Legate

Nerwen's posting, especially her post #82 actually looks sensible, and innocentish. However, I can as well imagine her evilly grinning behind this innocent mask. But that's just the tiny bit of feeling.

is reminiscent of the quote I posted of Mac's earlier; wishy washy. "However", "but". Another odd quote:

Originally Posted by Legate

Actually, I also - although I see I already meddled in that - don't see a point in such discussions, respectively: don't see a point in their subject. What people say, and that they interact and actually say something, is another thing and it's good. But otherwise, I think that simply everyone should do what he thinks is the best and then something will happen.

I don't understand this at all! It seems vaguely child-like to me, which isn't like Legate at all. Anyway, is still suspicious of Greenie, Volo, and Gwath.

#104 - Mentions Lommy. Suspicious of her for pointing out a difference in Sally's normal posting style.

#119 - Begins to get irritated (one could say, defensive, but he looks irritated to me) with Mac's continual suspicion regarding Phantom.

#131 - Has finally had enough of Mac and drops the subject completely.

#136 - Elaborates on his suspicion of Volo for Volo's benefit.

#171 - ...I really don't know what to make of this post. Legate, help me out?

#181 - finds McCaber's vote so soon after Phantom's suspicion of her to be suspicious.

#199 - Finds Lommy's lack of a personal opinion to be suspicious. Would rather not see Nerwen or Phantom lynched. Thinks Agan a possible EW.

#214 - Doesn't want to vote for anyone voted for thus far. Doesn't like metagame.

#221 - Begins to be wishy-washy in who he wants to vote for, with lots of ellipses. Can't decide between Agan and Nerwen. Says he will vote for Agan, implying he wants her to be lynched, but says he'd be comfortable with Nerwen being lynched.

#224 - Reiterates. Implies, now, that he doesn't want Agan lynched. Very suspicious.

#229 - Finally votes Aganzir, fobbing the decision off on others.

#233 - Replies to Shasta. Implies now that he didn't want to vote for Nerwen or Agan!

#236 - Replies to Brinn. Says he doesn't want to waste his vote at such a time, but effectively does by his own admission earlier (throwing the decision to the people who haven't voted). Really not liking Legate's vote at all.

Legate - Day 2

#332 - Replies to Phantom; thinks he could have been scried for a wolf.

A quote of Aganzir's that I hadn't seen until now, that sums up what I was thinking about Legate's vote perfectly:

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Legate & yesterday's voting. If that wasn't suspicious, nothing is.

"I want to jump the bandwagon as there's even a chance she'd be lynched (and she suspects me) and now I must explain it to everybody so as not to look I was indeed just jumping in the bandwagon!"

(Legate basically dismisses this.) Becomes very... hyper? jumpy? about Phantom. Says he is more suspicious of Phantom today. Offers the possibility that the wolves are roleplaying their kills. Wow, this is an extremely long post... okay. Thinks Phantom could be the EW. Wonders if Volo had the chance to dream. Thinks it's possible Roa is evil and Phantom gifted. The requisite "But..." line follows. Thinks Roa to be genuine, but another "but..." line rears its ugly head. Agrees with Lhuna. Another "But..." line. Suspicious of Sally's excuse for voting Phantom. Wonders why Durelin states the obvious. Exhorts people to post shorter posts ( ). Answers Brinniel's question about a submarine. Doesn't like Brinniel's reaction to Volo; thinks it ungenuine. Dismisses Shasta's theory completely (there's my vanity kicking in... ) States the obvious in noting that Roa goes after Phantom. Hyper Legate again, in Ka's direction this time. Thinks Ka's backing of Celuien looks odd. Is sick and tired of Phantom's constant chatter. Notes for Cailin that Volo wouldn't have had a dream and thus would have given no signs. Lots of broken up smileys. Becomes EXTREMELY hyper because there's another page to read. (Whew, finally done. Short posts, eh Legate?)

#334 - *sigh* Agrees with Brinniel that Roa is possibly focusing too much on Phantom, but thinks her suspicious anyway. Thinks Eonwe's style to be normal, but other things about him odd. (More wishy-washyness?) Thinks Brinniel is too nice to be anything other than evil. Complains about Phantom some more.

#335 - Notes that he'll be gone for a bit today.

#340 - Analyzes Brinniel. Much like I'm doing to him now. Some of his suspicion of her is alleviated.

#341 - Asks Brinn to elaborate on the Nerwen voters. Wants to see more of Greenie. (Back off, whippersnapper!)

Legate seems pretty bad to me as well. There are a few things (most notably his vote yesterday) that just don't speak of innocence. In fact, I'd be comfortable voting either him or Mac today.

[the phantom]

Roa for tp
Lhuna for Mac
Nilp for McCaber
Gwath for Lal

Originally Posted by morm

I still can't shake the feeling I've got about Brinniel and will likely revote for her today.

People keep bringing up Brin, but every time I reread her stuff she moves lower down my list. morm, laddie- if you're feeling inclined to trust me today, I'd let her be. She's one of the few I have a fairly firm opinion on.

Originally Posted by Rikae

YesterDay I thought he was just trying to stir the pot and get people talking, a day 1 technique I approve of

Well good.

Originally Posted by EDIT: Rikae

but toDay he is defensive and overly focused on Roa's attacks

That's not how I started the day, nor is it how I planned on spending the day. She kind of forced my hand with her million word post featuring bunches of misinterpreted quotes from me. I kind of had to respond to it. Believe me, I think the entire affair is at best a pointless distraction.

I've liked the way Kath has been talking today.

I like Shasta less with every posting he makes.

I'm still flip-floppy on Legate.

[Rikae]

Hey! I'm not Roa. (Sheesh, we aren't even twins... )

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hey! I'm not Roa.

Ha ha ha! Sorry. I guess it's because both of your names start with "R". I shall go back and edit the mistake.

All right, here's where I stand right now on whether or not I would mind lynching people.

I do not want to lynch these people because I find them innocent, or I think I will be able to get a read on them, or because I'd rather watch them for now.

Green
Nilp
Izzy
Eonwe
Kath
Sally
Mac
Rikae
tp
Di
Cailin
Lhuna
Brin
Legate
Lal
morm
Cel

I would be willing to accept the lynching of the following, either because I suspect them, because I don't have an opinion on them, or because I think their death might tell us something.

Shasta
Lommy
Dur
Roa
Agan
Ka
Gwath
McCaber

[McCaber]

Finally a chance to read and post. This is an epic game if there ever was one. First thing: put me down with the people wanting tp and Roa to sort things out by themselves.

Now Legate I don't like, nor Cailin. But I have to think before I vote, or I might as well lynch myself.

EDIT: crossed with Di and Durelin