Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[the phantom]

trying to convince us that our inner demons killed two people

Ah, so that is what he was trying to say. Lost me completely. But then I was never much for philosophy. I prefer to solve my problems via punching.

Like that one time I went exploring in the Barrow-Downs. There are some magnificent treasures under those hills, but the wights that guard them- very tough customers, and they don't like parting with treasure. But I roughed them up nicely.

Or at least I would've if Tom Bombadil hadn't shown up and rescu- I mean taken care of them before I had the chance. Silly old chap. I had the situation completely under control.

[the phantom]

And by the way would you like this authentic button that once belonged to Bilbo?

So YOU are the one that took them?!

I travelled all through the caves of the Misty Mountains looking for Bilbo's lost buttons! I found the very door he escaped out of and nearly got captured by a pack of goblins, and came away with nothing to show for it! Grrr... I hate it when someone beats me to a treasure.

But yes, I'll take them. Talk to Kitanna. She handles trades and such for me. Has a knack for getting good deals.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Like that one time I went exploring in the Barrow-Downs. There are some magnificent treasures under those hills, but the wights that guard them- very tough customers, and they don't like parting with treasure.

Ah, so you show an interest in the Barrow-Downs, eh? Well I'll throw in Sam's belt buckle, the one he lost there. Half price and that's a good offer.

Anyway, where were we? Oh yes, about finding the werewolves.

edit: x-ed since tp's #14

[Eönwë]

Well if we're going Ic, then tp is least likely to be a WW. He is too ego-centric and self-obsessed to allow any spirit to enter him.

Philnogsopher, on the other hand is hiding behind the mask of logic. What is he hiding underneath? May there be fangs there? Or he could be double bluffing. Or just simply not bluffing at all. Only time will tell...

And Dury, well, it's a first day, but she already seems to be slippping under my radar. And she's done a just under a sixth of all game posts. I can't remember any. But then, its's just very early day one.


Closing note: It's day one, and there's nothing better to do with all this useless (until later) time...

edit: Didnn't x with anyone. Am I the only one here or are you all hiding under your invisibilty cloaks?

[Nogrod]

1.2.1.3.1. the phantom is right that the cobblers face three times the throwing of a lot per Day/Night cycle and that clearly increases the probability of them being killed at one or another point.

1.2.1.3.1.1. the wolves face the challenge only once per Day/Night cycle and the innocents face it twice.

1.2.1.3.2. But if the cobblers make it the first one or two Days they will become a threat indeed.

1.2.1.3.2.1. A lot more threathening one they normally do being alone in the field.

1.2.1.3.3. I don't like the way tp is downplaying their dangerousness - even if they aren't our principal worry.

1.2.1.3.3.1. As tp correctly states: getting one wolf is half the victory.

1.2.1.3.4. We'll be a lot smarter on Day 2 or 3 - those of us around then that is.

1.2.1.4. Let's keep our eyes open for the cobblers as well.

[Nogrod]

1.2.1.4.1. I'm looking at the phantom right now...

[the phantom]

Overall, good stuff Nogrod. The pointless philosopher isn't entirely pointless, I see. But I must question this-

1.2.1. The cobblers - adding with the number of wolves - can create a lot of havoc in any one voting we make.

Nah. I don't think so. There are only two WWs. That's hardly voting power.

And the Cobblers don't know anything. They can't vote with each other or with the WWs except by guessing.

I also disagree slightly about the self-preservation band-wagons. As far as I know, every last person in this village is quite interested in self-preservation. It is true that the goal of a Cobbler is to stay alive long enough to cause havoc, but look at who else would like to stay alive...

1) The WWs, obviously.

2) The Seer, our greatest ally.

3) The Cobbler Hunter, our guard against their back-stabbing.

4) Innocents. The goal of an innocent is to die during the Night rather than the Day. For if they die at Night, they have successfully granted the gifteds another night of activity.

I'm going to vote for who I think is a Werewolf, but guess what- if my neck is on the line I absolutely will band-wagon to save my neck, and I think every last man and woman in this village would do the same. The entire goal of a lynch is to kill a WW. Therefore if you are in the lynch line and know that you are not a WW, you are defeating the entire purpose of the lynch if you don't do everything in your power to avoid death.

At least that is my interpretation of the proper way to behave.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nog

I don't like the way tp is downplaying their dangerousness - even if they aren't our principal worry.

Yes, I am kind of downplaying them. If they somehow survive the slaughter early on they could certainly do some devilish things.

But, here's the thing- there's nothing we can do about that! I think we can all agree that we can't waste lynches on suspected Cobblers. So why worry? They need to be left to the Cobbler Hunter. But what if the Cobbler Hunter bites it? Think about that before you go spouting off "So and so is probably a Cobbler because of x, y, and z", for then the WWs will know precisely who to keep alive.

Anyway, it just seems to me that thinking about Cobblers complicates things. Odds say their numbers will decrease quickly. And even if several of them stay alive, they're worthless without WWs to help. We only need to lynch correctly twice! I would recommend focusing on that point.

[the phantom]

By the way, Nog, I'm not proposing ignoring Cobblers completely. As I stated earlier, there are certain situations where we will need to discuss possible Cobbler ploys, but right now is not one of those times. Right now they don't exist as far as I'm concerned.

Originally Posted by Durelin

Anyway, let's try not to lynch our cobbler assassin or seer today.

Heh- or as a demonstration of our complete ignorance, we could all vote for who we think is the Seer and stand just as good a chance of not lynching the Seer as always.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

I say "Aim for a wolf and if you miss, you'll probably hit a cobbler."

Indeed.

And I see that we really need to settle this quote, Nog.

They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.

All right- let's talk this through.

I go down to the docks to watch for someone on a boat. It's very foggy.

I see a boat arrive. I see someone on the boat.

Question- does that mean I can identify the person? Pick their face out of a line-up?

Nope.

Seeing someone does not equate with recognizing someone.

The narrative says that not a thing was revealed. I would assume that identities would be included in that. They merely saw each other in the sense that they saw that there were other Cobblers present.

[Gwathagor]

Good morning, everyone. All five of us...

First days are usually utter rubbish, in my opinion, so I'm liking the tone of constructive discussion that tp, nog, and eonwe have set thus far.

I have to go to the bank (it closes really soon), but I'll be back on later.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Yes, I am kind of downplaying them.

Well, at least he's being honest about it and not hiding under lists (especially those with fake latin names *hint, hint*).

And I agree with you on some point, tp. We only have two wolves, so if we aim for them, we're much more likely to win. And what are cobblers? Just misguidedd innocents. I say "Aim for a wolf and if you miss, you'll probably hit a cobbler."

edit: x-ed since Nog's last non-list post. Sorry Nog.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Anyway, it just seems to me that thinking about Cobblers complicates things.

Sadly one can't just only "think of the wolves" either as they don't give themselves up to be thought everytime and then the other choice is to be just embarrased...

It is what people say and do that give you the cards you can and need to play with. Sometimes some people look really wolvish and you're more than happy to go after them but sometimes you're totally perplexed and lost as the wolves play so neatly that you have no clue about them.

So:
wolves = target #1
cobblers = target #2

Let's not forget our secondary targets as with the passing of Days they might become our target #1's.

I guess we're talking about the same thing tp but just from a different angle.

ToDay we need to go for a wolf. Or if we have a clear hunch for a cobbler and no idea about the wolves, then for a cobbler.

But just trying to ignore the cobblers (no, no, you're not saying it tp, this is just an argument) and taking great chances with a lynching of an unprobable wolf we're not at all at ease with, is folly as well. Let's just remember the cobblers would love to join any wagons suiting their hunches, the more so if they knew each other and could play it tactically... Knowledge is power here.

Originally Posted by the phantom

The narrative says that not a thing was revealed. I would assume that identities would be included in that. They merely saw each other in the sense that they saw that there were other Cobblers present.

I kind of hope for you to be right in here but fear you're wrong. I mean why only two wolves then with a village of 18? Do Rikae and Mac believe in the ability of the blind individual cobblers to lead us others astray so much that they leave the bad side at that disadvantage - with the cobbler-assassin and all? I'd say the presence of a cobbler-assassin speaks for cobblers to know each other and to form a major threat.

Hopefully the mods will enlighten us on this matter... or maybe it's their cruel plan to leave us guessing about it?

Anyway it's 2 AM here and I'm going to sleep. I will be back but tomorrow (RL) my evening is pretty full... I'll post and vote though and hopefully be able to hang around the deadline as well eventually.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by the phantom

There are only two WWs. That's hardly voting power.

And the Cobblers don't know anything. They can't vote with each other or with the WWs except by guessing.

Okay. Here's what we "know".

Originally Posted by the Narration

they did not learn of the identity of the two accursed ones, for Melkor's trust knows strict borders.

Originally Posted by the Narration

They saw each other, though the vision was too blurry and dark to reveal a thing.

So if the first sentence in the latter quote is what counts then the cobblers know each other's identities and they can form a block of four votes. With some good guessing - not entirely far-fetched - they might form a block of six which will be enough to hang anyone in here. I don't mean they're going to do it toDay - or maybe they will just try to fool us doing exactly that which we would not believe? But later in the game the threat is considerable. Six votes (or five, or four...) is a mighty weapon used in the middle of uncertainty that is the existential condition of us others.

The problem seems to be how to interpretate the ending of that quote about the vision being too blurry to reveal anything while the sentence before says "they saw each other" plain and simple.

Just to be sure I wouldn't ignore the worst case scenario as otherwise this might be technically / probabilitywise too easy for us to win. So I'm afraid we're against cobblers who know each other and that makes them dangerous with their four votes and the aching to vote with the wolves which they could get right at one point or another.


Edit: I just saw the phantom's latest. Yes you're correct and I do agree with you: the wolves are our top-priority. *News!*

But if all the cobblers (or three of them) are alive on Day3 and they know each other we're in the killing-zone as they are then quite free to roam... So they are a real threat and not something to be ignored.