Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[the phantom]

Wow. I expected to come home and find a couple of pages worth of yapping. But not so.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I kind of hope for you to be right in here but fear you're wrong.

So you still think the Cobblers might know each other? We'll just have to disagree on that then.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean why only two wolves then with a village of 18?

Yes, and no cursed villager either. That does seem unbalanced.

But of course there is no Ranger either, and the WW Hunter has been changed to a Cobbler Hunter.

Do Rikae and Mac believe in the ability of the blind individual cobblers to lead us others astray so much that they leave the bad side at that disadvantage

I think the Cobblers' ability to mislead us is worthless, because obviously at no point can they ever have concrete information about anyone's identity, and thus they cannot knowingly mislead us.

Here's what a Cobbler can do-
Best case scenario- self vote to clinch the win at the end.
Next best- draw out a gifted. (but this is very difficult under the current set up)
Option three- get themselves lynched.

Option three is the most attainable. No doubt the Cobblers would like to be able to survive and clinch the win at the end, but I cannot imagine that every Cobbler will lay low in survival mode. If I was a Cobbler I would start trying to make myself lynch target no later than day three if I was still alive. The simple fact is, a Cobbler dying at night is a complete disaster for the evil side, for they've either been slain by the Hunter or by their own team, the WWs.

It is my guess that this is what Mac and Rikae had in mind when they chopped the WWs down to two. They were banking on Cobblers wasting a couple of lynches. If they're extremely lucky, three lynches.

The Cobbler Hunter has quite a decision to make. Go for people laying low, banking on catching a Cobbler who wants to make a move towards the end, or go for people who look likely to be lynched, because perhaps that is exactly what they want.

What the Cobblers actually do depends completely on what sort of person they are. Do they calculate odds and play percentages, or do they play by feel, or are they content only with brave and bold moves for the ages?

We'll see.