Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Gwathagor]

I disagree with the phantom. There is a fourth option for cobblers: to confuse and mislead in any direction they can. As long as they are muddying the waters and inhibiting clarity of thought among the group, they are helping the wolves, since we're not likely to lynch wolves by accident, given the odds.

If I was a cobbler who was unaware of the identity of my fellows, this is what I would do.

[Gwathagor]

To clarify, I don't think the cobblers know who each other are.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Gwath

There is a fourth option for cobblers: to confuse and mislead in any direction they can.

You can only mislead when you actually know the correct direction.

If you have no clue as to anyone's identity, how do you know that the person in line to be lynched isn't in fact the Seer? So why try to muddy things up when perhaps things are already going well for the WWs?

People always go on about Cobblers causing confusion, but I don't buy it. The fact is, we already don't know anything. How more confused can you possibly get? There is no need to add extra confusion, and there is no guarantee that attempting to cause confusion would even help their cause, so what's the point? It seems like wasted effort to me.

However, you are right that there is a fourth major thing the Cobblers can do to help the WWs. But it is something that if brought up would probably help the Cobblers more than the village, because I really think that this particular thing is likely something that hasn't occured to more than a couple of the Cobblers.

[Gwathagor]

I disagree. You can mislead by obstructing rational thought, by presenting other options, by decreasing the odds that the right choice will be made. As you said: the cobblers are playing the odds.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

I disagree. You can mislead by obstructing rational thought, by presenting other options, by decreasing the odds that the right choice will be made. As you said: the cobblers are playing the odds.

Phantom says we can't get any more confused, so why would the Cobblers waste their time trying to confuse us? But I say that the longer we go on, the more information we have, so that the less confused we are. In my opinion, Cobblers will be easier to spot the longer we're down here, but by the same token, Cobblers will be much more dangerous the longer we're down here.

...If you'll excuse me, I need to find some water. All this stone is giving me a headache. Roanes aren't meant for extended periods underground.

*drags off his sealskin*

[the phantom]

Ah, so you're saying that the Cobblers might try to confuse us about things such as village rules and such?

Well yes, I suppose if a situation arises that they might do such a thing, but it seems rather risky to me, seeing as people who know better can catch them on it quite quickly. They would have to play it off as if they just didn't know the rules well. But then that would mean not stating their misinformation with too much conviction.

As for the rest of it-

by presenting other options

I see no harm in anyone presenting options. It would encourage opinions and debate.

by obstructing rational thought

That seems rather nebulous. How exactly do you do such a thing? How does one actually change the manner in which another individual processes information?

I think you and others are assigning far too many powers to the Cobblers. Their power lies in the manner of their deaths. If they die early or die at night, then the WWs likely lose. If they dodge death or die exclusively during the days, then we have our work cut out.

[Gwathagor]

I'm done arguing the point. You use your criteria, I'll use mine.

[Brinniel]

Okay, I'm here...finally.

First thoughts:

Nogrod is hurting my eyes with all those 1.2.1.1's or whatever..

I notice that the phantom has once again become the center of attention.

When it comes to who to lynch, of course wolves are our priority. We should do everything to seek the wolves out because lynching them wins us the game. But we also must remember that there are only two wolves...and while it is a big advantage to us, during these first Days it's going to be tricky to actually lynch one, especially with cobblers around. With so few wolves, we do have lee-way to lynch inaccurately. And since the cobblers are also our enemy, if we strongly suspect someone to be a cobbler, we should lynch them right away rather than save them for the hunter. Yeah we'd be lynching someone counted as a villager, but they are still an enemy and it's better to get a cobbler out of the way rather than risk lynching an innocent. And by doing so, we'd give the hunter a chance to seek another cobbler. After all, there are four of them.

Just because cobbler don't know the identity of the wolves, I wouldn't put them out of the picture. In my experience, I've seen the role of cobbler play out as a mixed bag. Sometimes the cobbler can end up hurting their allies more than helping them (though I actually haven't seen that too often). In other times, the cobbler can be the one who wins the game for the wolves. So yes, they can be dangerous.

One thing we need to watch out for is Day 1...or rather, toDay. So often, one player makes a post that looks suspicious and suddenly everyone starts voting them simply because they can't find any better suspects so early on. Wolves have always taken advantage of that, but cobblers can especially use that opportunity to bandwagon and lynch an innocent.

[Thinlómien]

Hello everybody. I was investigating penguins and their underwater flying, but now I'm here...

First off, I must agree with tp, Nerwen and Gwath (and others?) that the cobblers probably don't know each other. I think the quote says, rather clearly, that they know they have allies and how many of them there are, but not who they are exactly. Mr Nogrod looks quite cobblerish for not getting the point and also because of going unnecessarily deep to in-character and by making all those very confusing lists of his... I don't claim he doesn't make sense, for he mostly does, but something in the floody and badly arranged manner disturbs me. It looks very much like something he could do as a cobbler.

Another one who seems a little eyebrow-raising to me is Form... I mean, the guy is obviously a fraud for he says:

Originally Posted by the snowbird

Besides, I'm Dúnedain. Elvish languages are the only one I can read!

while we all know that the word "Dúnedain" is plural form and the singular would be "Dúnadan"... and that's definitely an Elvish word!

Anyway, I think we have no trouble. Two wolves are easy to find - or should be easy to find - and after that it doesn't matter that there's a horde of cobblers. By the way, I disagree with the phantom with their ability to cause chaos and confusion. They can very well do that. Present points that seem reasonable and make villagers think about them just to realise they don't make any sense. Make weird last minute votings. Write long nonsense posts to dull others' minds and to appear helpful while actually saying nothing. Stay silent for so long that they become enigmas. Those are just a few examples. I think we shouldn't underestimate their capacity. They can be very dangerous. But the good thing is that they're finished as soon as the wolves are. Also, if it should ever happen that the cobbler hunter has to come out (let's hope that won't happen though), s/he can provide us with a list of non-cobblers - if there have been any failed kills.

Originally Posted by Groin

Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then.

Well, I can agree about slips of tongue being a way to hunt wolves, but we shouldn't count on that because all wolves don't make slips and some people make wolvish slips even if they're innocent.

Originally Posted by Groin

Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!

...and beware of those who stay so silent that you can't form a picture of them. The Holy Old Debate!

Tp's way of advicing all sorts of gifted looks rather weird to me. Not that it's uncharacteristic of him, but it irritates me a little... he's obviously trying to gain some control over the village, once again.

It feels so good to be back in all this mess again. I think I did miss the game.


edit: xed with Brinn - Hi Brinn! *waves*

[Brinniel]

Since I really have no clue on who to vote for, I'll categorise everyone into who I'd be willing to vote for and who I definitely won't be.

Possibilities:
Feanor of the Peredhil
Shastanis Althreduin
Eönwë
Nogrod
the phantom
Thinlómien

Not:
Formendacil
Nerwen
Kath
Nilpaurion Felagund
Durelin
A Little Green

Those in the not category are those who I think are ordo/cobbler or are absent toDay (and I want to hear from them before voting them). Durelin and Greenie are two I'm least certain about but I said I wouldn't vote them toDay and I'm holding to that...though it could change toMorrow depending on what happens.

But who do I suspect most among that list? Or should I go ahead and vote for someone I think is a cobbler?

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I might go for Fea as she really gives me the creeps

Fea scares me too. Especially after what happened last game I played with her...if I'm remembering correctly.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I won't be voting Fea or Kath.