Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by tp

This may seem like a stupid question, but it makes a difference to me. I'm much more inclined to do something if it's historic.

I so much hope tp is not the seer, because if he thinks like that, our seer will soon be revealing himself (while it's still Day1) and just one ordo he has dreamt of just because no one has been stupid enough to do that before...

Anyway, I didn't have the time or the energy to actually reread, so I'm just voting..

++Nogrod

...and going to my much beloved Swedish books and handing the mouse & keyboard over to Greenie...

edit: xed with Mith and Gwath

[Lalaith]

Lommy, Mith - I get your point about the mods probably reallocating Kitanna's role if she had one. But I am not happy about Gwath being so *sure*. A pity, because I was feeling quite trusting of him before that.

[Mithalwen]

I wouldn' t fret about that Lal becasue no one can be sure of someone's innocence as far as I can make out . THe wolves know each other but they don't know if the others are ordo or cobbler. The seer similarly can only tell wolf or non wolf. The cobblers, as I read it don't know each other's identity. Ordos know nothing for certain. Even the assasin with a failed kill cannot be certain if the target was wolf or ordo.

Which leads us with a lot of suspicion.....

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm lost, but here's what I've gathered so far:

Kitanna quit the game, some people want to lynch her to keep innocent casualties down, some don't want to. I can see both sides of the argument, but I'm nearly positive (as some have said) that she will end up an Ordo. So it makes the most sense to me to execute her and lose one Ordo rather than execute someone (anyone, at this stage, has the greatest chance to be an Ordo) and have her modkilled.

++Kitanna

Pardon my haste. I just moved back into college and am getting back into the swing of things, just bear with me..

Edit: X'd with Mith.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

But I am not happy about Gwath being so *sure*. A pity, because I was feeling quite trusting of him before that.

Bother. I am not "sure." But the odds are very good that she is innocent. And, if she is a wolf or a cobbler, then we are still losing an innocent toDay because her role has to be reassigned. So let's lynch her and avoid losing a second innocent. We don't have enough information to form a substantial case against anyone else.

I really hate to be a pessimist, but first Days are bad news in my experience.

[Gwathagor]

Ok, well, I guess I should just practice what I preach.

++Kitanna

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Gwath

We don't have enough information to form a substantial case against anyone else.

And if we all hold hands and all together kill someone who's already dead anyway what more information will we have tomorrow? Who said something about just sitting around and agreeing with each other was very dangerous in this game? Well I think it's always very dangerous... It's very easy, and that's the whole problem.

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Durelin

And if we all hold hands and all together kill someone who's already dead anyway what more information will we have tomorrow?

A wolf kill, a seers dream and an assasin's essai .. of course not all of these may be public... We are only prolonging this by a day if we lynch Kitanna if we would otherwise have had a perfect strike rate - but the maximum game length is shortened if we don't lynch Kitanna because there is one less person. I like your confidence but don't share it. An accountant's soul is mine - must always be prudent and anticipate losses but not profits.

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Durelin

And if we all hold hands and all together kill someone who's already dead anyway what more information will we have tomorrow?

There's always more information on the second Day, which, I'm arguing, is one reason the likelihood of a successful lynch increases after the first Day.

[Nogrod]

Reporting for duty... (I just got home from the choir rehersals and haven't have time to even peek at the thread since I left.)

*goes back to read*

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'm here (And quark stars for sale!) - and I think we should definitely not lynch Kitanna. We will have much less to go on with toMorrow if we lynch practically no one toDay. I for one wouldn't much like another Day 1 -style Day. Just compare - if we lynch Kit, all we can analyse toMorrow are toDay's posts (that are not too many) and the Night's kill (that will most probably be very traceless and difficult to draw conclusions from). If we lynch someone else, we have all the voting stuff (possible bandwagons, possible strange last minute votes, people's suspicions and reasons for voting etc.) to analyse toMorrow in addition to the Night's kill. So yes, I think we really should make a proper lynch toDay.

As for who I could lynch - I think Gwathie looks a bit fishy at the moment, as does Shasta who pops in and makes an easy, neat vote that will not irritate anyone. I'm torn about Mith, since she seems innocent in one way (I don't think a wolf or a cobbler would come up with the idea of lynching Kit), but in another she does not (I think she is clever enough to actually bluff it, and I have a bad feeling about her overall).

At the moment, Brinn and Lal seem innocentish. Also, I don't think Nog is a cobbler - true, he has been more cheerful and confusing than usual, but I think it's just that he's a bit too absorbed in his character..


EDIT: x-ed since Gwathy's vote

[Mithalwen]

Well I think there is a good chance at least one our wolves is keeping a low profile today. Given that quiet folk are so often given the benefit of the doubt day one, I am really tempted to go with Kitanna. The assasin can pick off the cobblers, are you folk who are anti so confident you are going to get a wolf and not the seer or assassin? Big risk to my mind.

[A Little Green]

I'll have to vote very soon and I'm really at a loss. I think lynching Kit is a silly idea, so I'll vote for the one who strikes me as the most suspicious. (Of whom I'm not sure yet..)

Originally Posted by Mith

A wolf kill, a seers dream and an assasin's essai .. of course not all of these may be public... We are only prolonging this by a day if we lynch Kitanna if we would otherwise have had a perfect strike rate - but the maximum game length is shortened if we don't lynch Kitanna because there is one less person.

Yes - a wolf kill (at least I never can draw much conclusions on the first wolf kill) and possibly an assassin kill (that will rid us of one cobbler but provide us with little else). The seer dream will probably not affect toMorrow that much - and it's toMorrow I'm concerned about. True, the game will be "safer" if we go for Kit, but much more interesting and enjoyable to play if we don't play it safe but actually do something so that we really will have something to do and to analyse toMorrow.


EDIT: x-ed with Mith

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'll vote

++ Gwathie

because he gives me an overall fishy feeling. (Also, as I don't want us to waste one Day for lynching Kit, I'll vote for the one of my suspects I guess others might vote as well.)

Menelvagors, quark-stars, and pocket supernovas for sale! And the teddy bears.

Good night.

[the phantom]

Kudos, Mith, for bringing up the whole Kitanna thing. The different reactions people are having to it is going to give us some things to think about in the future.

Lommy for Nogrod (1)
Shasta for Kitanna (1)
Gwath for Kitanna (2)
Greenie for Gwath (1)

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'll have to vote very soon and I'm really at a loss. I think lynching Kit is a silly idea, so I'll vote for the one who strikes me as the most suspicious. (Of whom I'm not sure yet..)

You're at a loss? On the first Day? How extraordinary.

[Nerwen]

Just checking in. I'll be back when I've read through everything.

[the phantom]

Twelve votes to be cast in 25 minutes. Don't you love voting flurries?

I'm currently rereading everything. My mind hasn't changed much thus far.

Where's Kath?

[Durelin]

++Gwath

I don't like his attitude.

Woohoo, bandwagon!

[Nogrod]

Okay. Done reading...

Interesting but a bit disappointing as well. I do agree with tp that the reactions to this "lynch Kitanna" option are good things to read afterwards - and possibly even toDay. Let's not just make any common decisions for bandwagons are our worst option. I mean if we lynch someone with a great accord we have wasted the Day as totally as if we lynched Kit in the first place but very possibly lost one innocent more.

So more candidates to the scene now.

I'll bring you two who are this far the only one's that have ringed my bells of warning.

Lommy for her vote and less because of her general behaviour. There is something in her manner that I just don't think fits her as an innocent. But there is her vote I think she would not do - with those grounds - were she an innocent. But as a cobbler she might do just that.

I mean one thing you have kind of ignored talking about what the cobblers will do is that they will try to bring down those players they think are innocent. (Second thing not mentioned as such I think is that they try to steer the discussion into futile things thus derailing the hunt for the wolves) So let's look out for that as well.

Back to Lommy then. I know there is part of my judgement that has to do with her making a quite light vote on me in a situation where a few had already said they could vote for me. So it may also be partly a "natural" reaction to the unjust and ungrounded suspicion on me but at the same time it looks like a good bet for a cobbler indeed.

Another one I have some bad feelings right now is Groin. And if I think Lommy might be a cobbler I could see Groin rather as a wolf.

He has posted once saying this:

Originally Posted by Groin

Then it was that Groin, who had long been silent, spoke.

"Eonwe speaks wisely, as well as Gwathagor. We will not solve anything today but the best method to seek out the wolves. Though I fear only time will tell which two of us are the wolves. A slip of the tongue is all we need and many of us might be dead before then. Beware of those who would be loud and confuse you with too many thoughts!"

Now this looks like a plain effort of pleasing a few others. Not the least because Gwath had posted once before Groin's post saying only:

Originally Posted by Gwath

Good morning, everyone. All five of us...

First days are usually utter rubbish, in my opinion, so I'm liking the tone of constructive discussion that tp, nog, and eonwe have set thus far.

I have to go to the bank (it closes really soon), but I'll be back on later.

And that's what a silent wolf would do. Stay low, give some nice feelings to some others so that they would think nice of you...

But not much to go on I admit.

EDIT: X'd with all after Nerwen

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

True, the game will be "safer" if we go for Kit, but much more interesting and enjoyable to play if we don't play it safe but actually do something so that we really will have something to do and to analyse toMorrow. (Greenie)

I play to win, not to do interesting or enjoyable things.

Although the scarcity of future analysis from one quarter does irk me, we get the higher chance to be rid of two cobblers toNIGHT. So:

++Kitanna

Lommy, Gwath, and Durelin look somewhat entrail-covered to me, or at least ice cream-flavoured. Will observe them closer when I get back--if you let me live that long.

[Brinniel]

I agree that this lynching Kitanna business is quite silly. Regardless of what her role may be, she already dead. Yes, lynching her would give us an extra Day...but this early in the game I don't think an extra Day is that critical. I mean with two wolves, I think we have the advantage, even if we don't lynch them the first Days. It just doesn't make sense for us to waste our lynch on someone who's probably an ordo when we could be looking for a wolf. And as Lommy mentioned, if everyone just voted for Kitanna, there wouldn't be much for us to analyse toMorrow.

Let's see....Mithalwen is the one who came up with the possibility to lynch Kitanna, but on Day 1's in particular I tend to be more wary of the ones who bandwagon with such an idea....

tp seems to be playing with the idea. But no matter what decision he makes, if he's evil then he's probably a cobbler. Would he play so boldy on Day 1 were he a wolf?

I'm mostly worried about Gwath and Shasta. Gwath is insistent that lynching Kitanna is the best option once the idea's been put out. And then Shasta comes out of nowhere and votes Kitanna.

Hmmm....but then when I think about it again, why would a wolf vote Kitanna and want less casualities? If everyone voted her, it'd be easier for them to hide...but surely it'd be more advantageous (is that a word?) if they got rid of two ordos on Day 1 rather than just one. So perhaps that means a wolf is hiding in the group that's against lynching Kitanna. That doesn't stop me from considering that these bandwaggoners for lynching Kitanna are evil...but now I'm thinking more likely there's a cobbler among them trying to distract us..

[Mithalwen]

Since I raised the possibility I think I had better follow through - and I don't like this Gwathwaggon.

++ Kitanna

At least it does no harm....

[Lalaith]

Btw - I know a seer doesn't see a cobbler, but if one dies, we will be told his/her identity by the powers on high, won't we?

I'm not going to vote for Kitanna.

I'm just going through the thread again. I can see why people are worried about Nogrod. The Wittgenstein spoof doesn't bother me, actually, but however the quibbling over semantics does. (vis a vis the cobbler question) Nonetheless, I feel inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt just for now - I take Little Green's point.

I know I raised the issue of Gwathagor, but again, I'm inclined given his previous honest-seeming, to watch and wait on him.

I feel most worried about Phantom to be honest. I can't get a sense of a wolf right now but he feels rather Cobblerish.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Hmmm....but then when I think about it again, why would a wolf vote Kitanna and want less casualities? If everyone voted her, it'd be easier for them to hide...but surely it'd be more advantageous (is that a word?) if they got rid of two ordos on Day 1 rather than just one. So perhaps that means a wolf is hiding in the group that's against lynching Kitanna. That doesn't stop me from considering that these bandwaggoners for lynching Kitanna are evil...but now I'm thinking more likely there's a cobbler among them trying to distract us..

The cobblers are, presumably, as afraid of lynching wolves by accident as ordos are of lynching gifteds. So yes, I think it's not unlikely there's a cobbler or so in that group.

On the other hand, there is some merit in Mith's idea. I mean, if you had to chose between voting Kit and voting at random...

EDIT: X'd since Brinniel at 127.