Tol-in-Gaurhoth XLIX - At the Source of Darkness

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Mith

From the innocents' point of view it is quite good risk management.

Okay, let's see here. If we take the lynch in our hands then-
Chance of lynching an Ordo- 53%
Chance of lynching a bad guy- 35%
Chance of complete disaster- 12%

If we lynch Kitanna-
Chance of lynching an Ordo- 0%
Chance of lynching a bad guy- 0%
Chance of complete disaster- 0%

So we reduce the chances of disaster by 12%, and reduce the chances of great victory by 35%. Just looking at those two numbers we should certainly take the lynch.

But what about the possibility of lynching an Ordo? That is the greatest probability. How much do we need to protect our Ordos? What I'm saying is, are Ordos so important that we are willing to pass on a chance to damage the evil side? Hmmm...

Looking at the numbers like this, I can see why the idea is attractive, Mith. It's extremely safe.